Faisal Rooble on Abiye's plans to nullify Article 39...

[Suldaanka]

Somalis may as well bid Good bye to "Article 39"

Somali Galbeed people put a lot of faith on Article 39. In the Ethiopian constitution, drafted in 1994, nations and nationalities are promised the right to secede from the ancient empire, if they so chose. This was a powerful social contract between the nations in the anceint empire.

That contract may change given the wind blowing across Ethiopia in post TPLF political landscape.

Today, I attend a talk given by Andargachew Tsige. Mr. Tsige is the number 2 man for Ginbot 7 party. Ginbot 7 has been involved in an open conflict with EPRDF for several years, and was also an ally of ONLF. PM Abiy removed them out of the terrorist list recently.

He is also a former prisoner who was released by PM Abiy. It is recalled that he was kidnapped by EPRDF spies while he was on transit in Yeman.

The man told us a lot of moving and emotional personal stories. I was impressed by his modesty and willingness to forgive and forget the crimes committed against him. He sobbed several times and emotion took over him.

Most of his stories struck a cord with me.

He joined the armed wing of the now defunct Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Party (EPRP). As a young boy, I used to read EPRP's outlawed paper, called "Democracia." He so touchingly talked about the headech and agoney he caused his mother after she heard her 20-something boy joining the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Army (EPRA), the armed wing of the party.

That too struck another cord with me. I escaped and joined Western Somali Liberation Front (WSLF) at the tender age of a mere teenage. I too caused an unnecessary hurt to my famliy.

But, I differed with him on his newly-found rejection of the right of nations in Ethiopia to determine their fate. I thought his position and that of his party represented a serious departure from what his party and most of Ethiopia's left-wing politocal operatives believed in the past.

But again, each and every political organization in this mosaic former feudal country has the right to chart its own political course and program.

That I fully get it. What I don't get is what he told us about the new government's (Abiy's) resolve to soon or later nulify Articke 39.

He informed the audience that "both PM Abiy and Lemme are not going to entertain this Article to remain in the constitution. He emphasized that the "idea of dividing Ethiopia is not acceptable to Abiy and Lemma." He spoke definitely about the demise of Article 39.

There was no other flag around the room except that of old Ethiopia. Everyone in the room, about 100 of them, REALLY liked his asserssion that there will not be any discussion hereafter about secession. TPLF lost the war and it too cannot bring it back! We will figjt them to their dsfeat, he added. The room exploded with enthusiasm!

"ETHIOPIA will not be divided into 80 language groups," he emphasized with such a firm position. He was sure about this more than what I bargained for

With that, in my silence I put my sweaty hands on my two cheecks and kept wondering how much Somalis understand the contemporary political environment of Addis Ababa, a city we always remained so alien to it.

[Che -Guevara]

He won't do it. The Oromo are buying  time and consolidating their success.

[Old_Observer]

39 minutes ago, Oodweyne said:

I suppose you can say that the Oromo  don't need no freaking article 39 now that they are ruling the place. And with it they will always have the sheer number in any democratic election to win hands down, with only small help from of one or the other small ethnic community of the country when it comes to contesting in any federal election.

Consequently, why give their enemies any idea of leaving the Ethiopia's state now that it's fast becoming an Oromo state in all but name.

Hence, If were I were Abbiy Ahmed, getting rid off this article 39 in the constitution will be my first legislative priority of the next session of the parliament. Particularly since he has the numbers in-terms of MPs in the assembly to do a bit of a constitutional amendment on this particular issue as soon as possible.  

Article 39 is in the constitution and cannot be made any amendment by Parliament.

Jawar just told the Amhara its better not to touch anything in the constitution until somebody wins an election with those changes campaigned. "If you are complaining that the TPLF did this constitution by force and not democratically, why do you want to do the same now that you are in power as an Oromo ally" Tongue in chick about alliance, but the point is practical.

[maakhiri1]

6 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Article 39 is in the constitution and cannot be made any amendment by Parliament.

Jawar just told the Amhara its better not to touch anything in the constitution until somebody wins an election with those changes campaigned. "If you are complaining that the TPLF did this constitution by force and not democratically, why do you want to do the same now that you are in power as an Oromo ally" Tongue in chick about alliance, but the point is practical.

This is Africa, no one follows rules by the book. Faisal Roble, God bless him, is on the mark this one.

[Old_Observer]

Just now, maakhiri1 said:

This is Africa, no one follows rules by the book. Faisal Roble, God bless him, is on the mark this one.

Its not a matter of following rules or democratic or fair.

Its simply not possible considering it will split first the Oromo. Unless Abiy has given up on Oromo nationalists and has determined his power base to be Amhara and he will fight the Oromo nationalists its not logistically and security wise possible.

Imagine how long it will take to dismantle kililka alone?

 

[Che -Guevara]

The problem for Abiy is trying to accommodate too many groups that have different and often competing interests. Sooner or later, he would have to choose a side.

[galbeedi]

The article 39 was a ploy in early nineties to cheat and calm down the Somali nomads who were making noises. It was  crude strategy by Meles to buy time and sideline the Amhara who were managing the affairs of every region. 

It did work  and pushed the Amhara to go to their own region. It did help a lot of other ethnic communities including Oromo to manage their affairs with their own language.

Yet, it was a false and unthinkable ploy by the Tigre. No nation in their right mind will allow voluntary separation of their country . Usually it takes by the barrel of the gun to secede. Eritrea was allowed by Meles who was unwilling to face his own patron Asias who was hell bent for independence.

In Ethiopia sessions can only happen by sheer power of the gun or disintegration of the state after a chaos. 

Without the Ethiopian political structure, monetary and economic systems what would a new Oromia state  could do?.They will collapse on the weight of the new state with competing ethnic groups. Abiy is not worried about the Somali separation. He is thinking about the Tigray who has both the means and strength to dismantle Ethiopia. With Amhara on board and Eritrea on the border,  it will be tough.

[Che -Guevara]

Oodweyne,

The Somali Region is a litmus test for all groups, in the case of Abiy, it is to see how much he can flex his muscles and for the older order, they want to see how much they can slow him down before they play their ultimate hand.

But there's an immediate problem for Abiy in Oromia which has really become a completely autonomous region under the rule of Lemma Margese. It must be noted it was Lemma that paved the way for Abiy. Lemma controls the Oromo Liye forces, police and now Querro. The Jawar character has no real base. However, Lemma does and Lemma is an Oromo nationalist who turned a blind to the massacres of Somalis, Amhara and Tigrays.

I also want to note the foreign minister and Lemma facilitated the OLF meeting in Asmara. Despite the peace agreement, OLF still insists on self-determination. Ethiopia can't dismantled easily but there are enough groups within existing political structure that have no problem with balkanized Ethiopia.

 

Galbeedi,

The article 39 was designed for Tigray though he might have been sold to the Somalis as compromise.

[Duufaan]

As I said before the best that happens for the Somalis future are the Oromo population rise for better or worst.  Somalis can not bring any changes themself. They are different the rest of Ethiopia. Abiya is happy to deal with Somalis. He can use the Somalis to cover up his attention and unite his nation. Do not forget Ethiopians and Somalis had centuries of wars and conflict. They did not forget.

The Oromo give Abiya full mandate and support to change the old system.  They are expecting a lot of changes from Abiya. But Abiya seems wanting to rule Ethiopia the old way he knew. The Oromo are waiting patiently for now.All the changes the Oromo wants will also benefit the Somalis. Elections, property rights, local taxes going direct to regional coffin. These are some of the things Oromo wants and If Abiya will not delever soon He will be their target later

39 article is fake. Ethiopia can not survive if one region left, the rest want to leave too.