Turkey in Financial Turmoil. Erdogan is defiant.

[Holac]

Turkey has not approached the International Monetary Fund to ask for financial assistance, an IMF spokesperson said on Friday. "We have received no indication from the Turkish authorities that they are contemplating a request for financial assistance," IMF spokesperson Randa Elnagar said in an emailed statement. Elnagar said the Fund would have no comment on the sharp drop in the Turkish lira. "The IMF does not comment on day-to- day currency activity," Elnagar said.

The lira fell as much as 18 percent against the dollar amid a diplomatic row between Ankara and Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump deepening the tensions by doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Turkey. "I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20 percent and Steel 50 percent," he said in a Twitter post.

"Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!" Trump said. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar exchange hit 6.41 early Friday before easing slightly, while it stood at around 5.46 as of 5 p.m. local time on Thursday. The dollar/lira exchange rate was at the level of 6.46 at around 21.30 p.m. local time on Friday.

[Holac]

It is very bad when people start talking about IMF bailout for Turkey.

This is more than bizarre.

[Holac]

Investors Doubt Turkey Will Easily get IMF Help

As Turkey’s currency plummets, investors are concerned that one much used crash mat may not be there to break its fall: An IMF bailout.

Since the beginning of last year, the International Monetary Fund has stepped in 16 times with funding for countries that have spiraling debts or falling currencies, most recently a $50 billion package for Argentina.

The Turkish lira has fallen almost 30% against the dollar this year and yields on its bonds have risen fast, but investors question whether President  Recep Tayyip Erdogan would ever agree to the sort of stringent demands that the IMF asks for in exchange for loans.

The IMF said Wednesday that Turkey hasn’t asked for its help. It may never do so. But the idea that the IMF is there can act as a backstop for the currency and bonds of troubled countries. Many investors currently don’t see that safety net easily coming together for Turkey, adding to the pressure on one of the world’s largest emerging markets.

“I think it’s hard to believe that the IMF could help Turkey or for Turkey to ask for the IMF to help in a balance of payments crisis,” said Luca Sibani, senior portfolio manager at Epsilon SGR. “This is a further element of vulnerability” for Turkey, he said.

Emerging markets have come under intense pressure amid a strengthening dollar, higher U.S. interest rates and an escalating trade conflict. That heaped extra strain on Argentine bonds and the peso earlier this year, but its June IMF’s deal stabilized the country’s markets.

 

 

For Turkey, investors worry about President Erdogan’s influence over monetary and economic policy. Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

For Turkey, investors worry about President Erdogan’s influence over monetary and economic policy after he granted himself the right to appoint the central bank’s governors and named his son-in-law as finance minister.  Investors fear the growing sway of Mr. Erdogan, who has expressed a preference for lower rates, will discourage the central bank from taming inflation that hit an annual rate of 15.85% in July.

Turkey is especially vulnerable to falling currency, given the nation’s large pile of foreign-currency debt. Its external debt stood at 53% of gross domestic product at the end of 2017, according to the IMF, one of the highest levels among emerging economies. As the lira slides, that debt becomes more expensive to pay off. What’s more, over a third of that debt comes due within a year, while 40% is in floating rate debt, making it more expensive to repay as interest rates rise.

The IMF is likely to see Turkey very differently to Argentina, analysts say. Argentina’s president Mauricio Macri secured a rapid and large bailout in part because he was perceived as trying to return discipline to the country’s economy.

[Holac]

Turkey Inc reeling as crisis prompts bailout speculation

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Desperate measures are in the air in Turkey: Trading rooms are awash with talk of a bailout by the International Monetary Fund and potential capital controls. But there's a vacuum at the core of economic policymaking.

The central bank and government have remained largely silent as the currency plummeted to record lows and the US imposed sanctions and threatened more. The lira rebounded after falling by the most in a decade on Monday, getting a lift from news that Turkish officials were headed to Washington for talks. The yield on 10-year bonds surged above 20pc to an all-time high.

Capital controls are now "more than a tail-risk scenario now as the authorities show no signs of reverting to more orthodox policies", said Shamaila Khan, AllianceBernstein's director of emerging-market debt in New York. What the lira really needs is "independence of the central bank, tighter fiscal policies and an IMF programme", she said.

Late on Tuesday, the IMF put out a statement saying it has "received no indication from the Turkish authorities that they are contemplating a request for financial assistance".

Meanwhile, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's call with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu yesterday was, generally speaking, a "good sign".

Yet the radio silence from Ankara is deafening. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who won almost absolute power in June elections, is a staunch critic of higher interest rates and investors worry that he may be standing in the way of the central bank.

"It is very difficult to foresee an about-face by the authorities," said Per Hammarlund, chief emerging-market strategist at SEB in Stockholm. "The moment when Turkey will be forced to go to the IMF for support is drawing closer."

The lira is buckling under the weight of one of the widest current-account deficits in emerging markets and inflation is spiralling ever higher. As of July it was running at more than three times the central bank's target, driving the real policy rate to below 2pc, the lowest since December.

Ten-year yields fell 19 basis points after earlier surging as much 42 basis points to a record 20.09pc; the benchmark stock index was up more than 2pc.

Although investors are pushing for a significant rate increase from the central bank, there is growing consensus it is going to take more than monetary policy to reverse the tide.

"It's going to be a shock of one type or another: either a policy shock or a macro shock or some combination of the two," said Christopher Granville, managing director for EMEA and global political research at TS Lombard in London. "But the way to sugar that pill," he said, would be a "political accommodation with the West. That would make the pain much less."

Turkey's deputy foreign minister Sedat Onal was leading a delegation with officials from the finance, justice and foreign ministries to the US, the foreign ministry in Ankara said in a statement, fuelling speculation that a deal to patch up relations - strained by Turkey's detention of an American pastor - may be in the works.

The US remains a solid friend and ally of Turkey, the US embassy in Turkey said in a Twitter post, as it denied news in Turkish media that a US official predicted the lira would weaken to 7 per dollar.

On Monday, the central bank boosted banks' access to dollar liquidity by $2.2bn, an effort to take some pressure off the lira. The currency trimmed its losses briefly, only to plunge to successive record lows through the night as investors saw the move as evidence that the bank's hands were tied.

The lira's meltdown is not only hurting consumers' sentiment and wallets, but it's pushing corporate balance sheets closer to the abyss. Companies that borrowed heavily in foreign currencies now face a growing burden due to the tanking lira. Turkey Inc is weighed down by $337bn of foreign-exchange liabilities, with a shortfall of $217.3bn net against assets, according to central bank data. Bank borrowing costs are also rising ahead of more than $100bn in debt payments coming due over the course of a year.

"It will remain like this until the central bank commits unconditionally to hike rates and keep them high until inflation has turned," Henrik Gullberg, a strategist at Nomura International, said by email. "The market needs that sort of hard commitment."

Investors are watching closely to see whether Turkish banks will maintain access to the foreign funding they need to keep economic activity humming.

Turkish lenders have a good record of foreign borrowing even at the height of a financial crisis and are strong enough to weather a slowdown, according to bank executives. But the nature of the current crisis raises the possibility of a new set of external shocks, most notably from the US, which is retaliating with economic attacks against Turkey's imprisonment of American citizens.

Even if foreign banks continue lending to their Turkish counterparts, "costs will rise and access to markets will be hampered, with many investors not willing to increase their exposure to Turkey," said Trieu Pham, an emerging market credit strategist at ING Bank NV in London. "If sanctions were applied on banks, that would be the worst-case scenario given the high external financing needs, but that's not a likely scenario for now."

Last week, the US started the pressure by sanctioning two ministers, and on Friday it announced a review of duty free trade for about $1.7bn in Turkish exports. The Turkish government has been trying to negotiate relief for a two-track investigation into state-run bank Turkiye Halk Bankasi, but Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already warned Turkey that "the clock had run out" on its deadline to set the prisoners free.

The heads of Turkey's two largest banks say they're still able to borrow.

"There is no issue at all regarding the syndication," Akbank TAS Chief Executive Officer Hakan Binbasgil said on July 25 during a teleconference after the bank's first-half earnings. Akbank borrowed a total of $1.15bn in syndicated loans in August 2017, $945m of which will mature in September, according to a public filing.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi CEO Ali Fuat Erbil said strong relationships allow banks to roll over loans even against a turbulent economic backdrop. "In the toughest days I remember during 2008 and 2009, our rollover ratio was around 88pc, not below 80pc," Mr Erbil said in an earnings teleconference on July 26.

Fitch downgraded Turkey and then 24 Turkish banks further into junk in July, saying tougher financing conditions and a weaker economy will likely hit the performance of the banking sector.

Even a 100pc rollover ratio doesn't meet Turkey's needs at a time of weak capital inflows, according to Inan Demir, an economist at Nomura. "Investors are watching restructuring demands and their impacts on banks' balance sheets and creditworthiness very closely," he said. "I don't know when these will have a negative impact on foreign borrowings, but we can't say that they will have no impact on foreign lenders' appetite." (Bloomberg)

[Duufaan]

Turkey economy is fine. Tourisem industry is booming, export is growing and economy is growing. with high rate.  They do have high inflation problem and dollar debt which is manageable.

This new crises is all about with Turkey growing regional influence, Turkey has been target. As punishment, Turkey is facing economic war as Erdogen put it. An attempt to slow down turkey economy and samitime it"s ambition.

Turkey will never go to IMF. This talk of IMF for Turkey is part of speculation.

[Dahireeto]

This could be the end of Turkey. 

[maakhiri1]

Turkey is a big ecomomic threat

[Old_Observer]

Its psychological warfare

To make investors hesitant

To Generals and ministers doubt themselves and their country

To make the people kneel down to west and avoid their government

 

Now comes the test of people, nation and their will. The Russians had more risk but they made it. The Turkish had the character in the past, but 60 years under western influence can change. after all its more than 2 generations.

 

[Dahireeto]

 It is either capital controls or IMF. I don't see any other way out for Turkey. 

Erdogan needs to act quickly. Trump is sensing weakness and is going for the kill. That is what bullies do. 

[Duufaan]

1 hour ago, Dahireeto said:

 It is either capital controls or IMF. I don't see any other way out for Turkey. 

Erdogan needs to act quickly. Trump is sensing weakness and is going for the kill. That is what bullies do. 

Turkey has china option for the worst case scenario. The Turkey  government has little debt and 110 billion reserves. Trump wants to play tuff before the midterm election. After September things will be back. to normal.

[Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar]

Old semi-Zionist Reer Imaaraad are it again. It is so blatantly obvious.I am sure 100% for that. They tried to do this to Qadar's currency in last year.

The sickos in Dubeey might even have paid tens of millions of dollars in bribes to Unstable Moron's son-in-law or himself to do this since their previous efforts of lira manipulations were not doing much damages. The calls being made to release the detained so-called pastor who was a CIA spy is just a ruse being used.

[galbeedi]

Guys, do not put fuel to the fire Trump and company are trying to ignite.

In fact, Turkey is one if he few countries that are prepared for economic attacks,  because, they were always expected to come. The Turkish election supposed to be held in the fall of 2019, and their enemies were preparing many stacks including currency and fueling of internal dissent. Erdogan and his party preempted the plan and held the election last June with solid majority.

In terms of economy, they are growing faster than others. Their export is up double digits, tourism industry and visitors are up 20%, manufacturing and auto export are up. Almost every economic indicators are strong.as a daily follower of Turkis political and economic activity, every thing is up including weapon exports .

They are taking over huge Americans exclusive industries like weapons export. They just signed billions worth of attack Helicopter deals with Pakistan, armed Deones and vehicles to Central Asia and Africa.Their domestic airline had carried 21% more people than last year. For the first time half million Chinese are visiting. Chines banks are financing billions of dollar projects.

Furthermore, their biggest advantage is that their debt to GFP ration is the lowest in Europe, much lower than even Germany. Italy , Spain , Portugal and other big economies of Europe are suffering with 25% youth unemployment, and their dept to GDP ratio is 180% or more.

Of course, their currency have been under attack for months and evil Gulf boys are dumping the Turkish Lira and  their buying dollars  will effect. Currency stability is needed for the market and investment, but it is not something that cannot be fixed. In Canada two years ago our dollar hit 69 cents dropping 30%, but the fundamentals of the economy was always stable.

The Turkish economy is the most diversified in Europe. Here in Canada, 70% of our exports goes to one single trading partner—-USA.  Canada is trying to diversify.

Erdogan and company were preparing this sort of thing for years. It is all psychological war fare to keep Turkey for becoming independent power that cannot be dictated. 

Also, Turkey refused to join the sanctions on Iran and promised to trade with that nations including buying oil and gas. Folks, it is the growing pains that nations must go throug.

Backward looking  Somalis who live in a Small bubble and  do not have stakes in the world, Who are always happy to carry the water for someone else, are already celebrating the end of Turkey that will not happen.

Mr. Dahireto, your evil wish says more about you than Turkey. 

Turki way u Dhamaatay Kulaha.waar Soomalidan Maxaa Ka Si ah.

[galbeedi]

Erdogan, just anouced that he will use local currency to trade with Russia, Iran, China and Ukraine. Even China has anouced few months ago that it will be using the Yaun to buy oil which could be billions. 

The addiction to santctions and bullying will not work any more as other nations had said. Turkey have some cards to play. Folks, the world had changed. Imagine Saudis are bullying Canada by punishing their own people including those who are in medical treatment in hospitals. 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

Erdogan, just anouced that he will use local currency to trade with Russia, Iran, China and Ukraine. Even China has anouced few months ago that it will be using the Yaun to buy oil which could be billions. 

The addiction to santctions and bullying will not work any more as other nations had said. Turkey have some cards to play. Folks, the world had changed. Imagine Saudis are bullying Canada by punishing their own people including those who are in medical treatment in hospitals. 

Now you are in conflict with Saudis. lol

Threatening with Quebec separation

Accusing Canada of crime against humanity on aboriginals native indians

Canada has most women prisoners

It would be really funny if it wasn't for the holy sites, these people do not even deserve a country.

 

The main reason BTW is not what is on twitter, its because Saudis bought about 15 Billion dollar military equipment and was agreed to remain secret, but Canadian government made it public.