Who is now in control Ethiopian Defense Forces and Intelligence??

[Che -Guevara]

Abiy or TPLF officers?

 

[Mooge]

Amhara Oromo alliance. TPLF has no significant power. 

[Khadafi]

19 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Abiy or TPLF officers?

 

As if they werent in controll before the installment of a new singing boy,

[Che -Guevara]

19 minutes ago, Khadafi said:

As if they werent in controll before the installment of a new singing boy,

I am talking  about  now. It's  clear some of the things thar have happened  or are having now are contrary  to their  interest.

[galbeedi]

Chief of the armed forces is an ethnic Amhara, the intelligence chief is a Muslim man called Mohamed Adam, both of them installed by Abiy. 

[Khadafi]

27 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

I am talking  about  now. It's  clear some of the things thar have happened  or are having now are contrary  to their  interest.

What makes you belive that? What are the things that have happened that has been against their intrest? I was also a bit cautios  at the beginning but after reading a english script of Abey's speach in Minnepolis I am now convinced that what we are seeing is simply the effects of an orchestrated  machievalli planned  plan to prevent civil war. (Amhara-Amharisied Oromos Alliance VS Tplf.  Abey Ahmed is simply what Galbeedi potrayed him to be. Oromo la amxaareeyay.  As for Somalis, even if a change occured. The guard at the jail-cell might have been replaced but the reality is that it's still a prison. The appointment of a former ally to Cabdi Ileey prooves that the status que have not changed. They have simply found a better horse ride once the old one has become useless. 

 

Let's see if the internal dissent against Abey Ahmed  amongst the Tigra'ans and the more extreme Oromo's grows into a fully fledgeed collapse of the state.   Ninkaani meesha waa la  keenay as a desperate last attempt by the ruling coalition to keep the oromo revolt under controll. Thats a fact we all could agree upon. What we differ is how big the tigrayan dissent towards him is.

 

Demoting a few generals  and making cosmetic changes does not really change the power dynamics by group that  had the power by the barrel of the gun. 

,

[galbeedi]

I agree with Oodweyne the deep state with strong military structures are in the hands of the Tplf. Even the Tigray online guys are saying that the Tigray army and special forces could take out everyone. The Tplf had always plan be if things went out of their way, and they think that the Amhara are not people who can win any battle against them. They proudly claim to be those who liberated Ethiopia from the Derby. That sight of Colonel Mengitu being rehabilitated in probably the last thing they need. 

[Old_Observer]

31 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Chief of the armed forces is an ethnic Amhara, the intelligence chief is a Muslim man called Mohamed Adam, both of them installed by Abiy. 

The chief of staff is Tigray and the chief of Intelligence is from Amhara region. Both were comrades against Mengistu. Gen. Adem was chief air force they moved him to intelligence to make room for Oromo chief airforce. The next day they also appointed deputy chief of intelligence an Oromo, so Gen. Adem is kind of sidelined.

The chief of staff was one of the 5 commanders of TPLF against Derg and also commander of Central command many years.

If Jigjiga is to go by most of the force was Oromia Liyu under federal name and uniform.

 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Mooge said:

Amhara Oromo alliance. TPLF has no significant power. 

The Amhara are getting off the bus. Its only briefcase parties and groups that have joined.

Today the MOFA and President of Oromia are in Eritrea negotiating with OLF (named Shannie) a group that has not joined but has most influence among Oromo. Its their flag that all Oromos wave.

Eritrea is also showing some cold feet since Eritreans started asking for similar changes. ONLF, OLF, and TPDM (Tigray) are security for Eritrea I think.

[Suldaanka]

The TPLF operate a State within a State. They had been preparing for a day like this and are in a better position than any other region to defend itself and its interests. 

In terms of Economy, they control most of the money making entreprises and also have their own paramlitary that is equiped with most advanced weaponary including fighter jets. 

It will take at least 10 years or more for the rest of Ethiopia to be on bar with the TPLF. 

It will be very interesting to see how Abiye Ahmed navigates or deals with an opposition from TPLF. He will be walking a a very tight rope. 

[Old_Observer]

15 minutes ago, Suldaanka said:

The TPLF operate a State within a State. They had been preparing for a day like this and are in a better position than any other region to defend itself and its interests. 

In terms of Economy, they control most of the money making entreprises and also have their own paramlitary that is equiped with most advanced weaponary including fighter jets. 

It will take at least 10 years or more for the rest of Ethiopia to be on bar with the TPLF. 

That is over rated. No reason for Oromo to go to Tigray unless they themselves want to separate and want to totally weaken the Xabeshi which is unlikely. Tigray is sarounded by Eritrea which the Oromo are now kissing feet and hand.

Kililka is most strategic for Ethiopia than any other region. Its the gateway. Eritrea can never replace Djibouti which means kililka is still strategic.

Without oil or gas even simply as road makes kililka gateway and also long border means security risk if kililka is not happy.

What the Oromo wanted was weak kililka and the clans and subclans on the road to be their best friend and secure the route. Tigray have no interest in weak kililka, on the contrary strong kililka was in their interest.  and also the route is only top priority if they Tigray are in control of the whole shindig.

 

[galbeedi]

Oo, 

How about the military chief, I thought he was an Amhara? 

[galbeedi]

Sorry, you are right. The intelligence chief is Amhara. 

By the way, oo you keep talking about the Djibouti trade life line for the Somali zone. Berberine    e and Awda coast is ten times closer than Djibouti. The Djibouti route serves Addis and the container traffic. I know that you also work part time foe Djibouti but, the so called trade is red hearing. THEY COULD OPEN THE BORDER with Somali land with ten crossing points easily. 

[galbeedi]

Even boosaaso could serve the Kill interior. 

[Che -Guevara]

2 hours ago, Oodweyne said:

Che,

It's complex and cross-cutting divided loyalty. Some Army leadership are loyal to the TPLF (meaning a straight-up loyalty to their Tigreans leaders). And some army leaders, who are not from the Tigrean's community are now shifting their loyalty to Abby out of careerism concern, since they know that the days of Tigrean's ruling the roast of the Ethiopia's State is probably over for good.

And some are decidedly waiting on the wings just to see who will win the soon-to-be stage showdown between the Abby guy and the remnants of the old order, who are mostly centered on the TPLF and it's various multi-headed political tentacles and networks (i.e., the Tigrean's deep-state, which Meles has build it through-out the years).

So, the Somali Kililka was a dry run of the bigger fight that will probably come with the Tigrean's Kililka, which by all probabilities is coming down the pike. And from there we will see that the leadership of the TPLF, will probably side with the Tigrean's kililka and its interests, although the bulk of the army will still remain very much loyal to the Abby guy. Specifically. if the Tigrean's kililka and Abby guy go toe-to-toe for a political pissing contest in-order to determined as to who will prevail. 

The end game is indeed Tigray. The question is what's the role of the West in all of this. Would they force Woyanes to stay at the expense of Tigray Region. Abiy is singing the right notes but time will tell but he is surrounding himself with Oromo hardliners.  As we speak, Lamma Margese is in Eritrea negotiating with OLF.