Why Prime Minster Kheyre is Not Going Anywhere Anytime Soon

[Deeq A.]

In the past couple days the fadhi ku dirir forums in Xamar and Xalane were abuzz with rumors of emerging rift between President Farmaajo and Prime Minster Kherye. The rumors have brought vibrancy back into the voices of disgruntled elements among the Somali elites, hopeless pseudo opposition politicians, and idle loungers in Xalane alike. Praying and hoping for a rift between the President and his Prime Minster will remain a pipedream for those salivating over the thought of such a prospect.

Cafés, hotel lobbies, airport termini, and office corridors were awash with hush tones in which the rumors were passed. While revelations got ordinary Nabad iyo Nolol foot soldiers unnerved and worried, its luminaries were toasting to and livened at the depth of hallucination and how desperate their detractors and so called opposition politicians are in chasing after the mirage of a rift in FG top leadership.

The rift rumors, like most rumors, are fueled by lack of (leaked) information about the relation between Nabad iyo Nolol luminaries, fear of the unknown, worrying sadistic level of Somali cynicism, armchair analysts desperate to have their doomsday predictions about Somalia leadership come to pass, and some idle Xalanelanders accustomed to make a killing about rifts among FG leadership. So called Somalia opposition politicians’ daily prayers for and preoccupation with the occurrence of infighting among Somali leaders (be it between the President and the Prime Minister, President/PM and the Speaker, or between the leadership of the Federal Government (FG) and the Federal Member States is scornful and shows the extent of their bankruptcy of ideas.

The current administration of the FG of Somalia has harvested mixed bag of successes and failures since taking the mantle of country’s stewardship on 8^th February 2017. The Dummy Somali opposition is known to suffering excruciating tummy upsets every time the FG made baby step towards progress.  Ironically, damned as they are because of how ill-equipped they are for opposition politics, they failed in bringing to the fore the FG’s failures and missteps on addressing and/or making progressing on issues of national priority. Somalia is a fragile state and therefore parroting of ill-informed, rudderless, clueless, holier-than-thou politicians of shady back-grounds over all and everything the FG lays its hand on did not and will not serve any useful purpose for the recovery of a country on its knees other than escalating bad situations.

The public is yet to see, let alone benefit from, the selfless contributions of well-informed, consistent, honest, credible, and articulate opposition politicians to not only pin-point the failures of the FG but who also suggested solutions to addressing the myriads of challenges facing the country. Politicization of the FG’s failures and missteps for the ultimate reason of scoring cheap political points against the current administration is itself a worse failure than the failures of the FG.

That said, here is why I think Prime Minister Kheyre isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and also why the claptrap about the emergence of a rift, or the existence of one, is wishful thinking by failed opposition politicians:

1)  He was appointed to the position in an honorable way and without the pressures and worries having to go through the humiliating hands of brokers,

2)  He’s earned the trust and been doing the bidding of the President and his inner circle to the extent of completely alienating his past political association and politicians most closest to him,

3)  He’s having the trust and confidence of the President and his inner circle as to be delegated to most, if not all, of the executive functions,

4)   He’s been the chief-defender and seller of the FG policies and actions in the boldest, most articulate, and rhetorical of ways,

5)  He’s the President’s full understanding of the opportunity cost it entails to making such a major change to his advantage. An objective cost benefit analysis will reveal the benefits of keeping his Prime Minister far outweigh the benefits of effecting a change.

6)      Keeping to his promise on his keenness to lead a united administration devoid of infightings that characterized all past administrations,

7)      Lack of a compelling reason for PM change, thus far, coupled with the uncertainly of whether he’d be better or worse off with a new PM,

8)  The President’s understanding that, absent compelling grounds, making PM change might have the consequence of creating new and more disgruntlement as a result of shuttered expectations by many, including the dismissed PM and cabinet, and all those who will not have made it in the new cabinet despite raised expectations following the changes. There’s the likelihood that for every position (PM, Cabinet) filled there will be an estimated satisfaction to dissatisfaction ratio of 1:5.

9)  The full understanding that PM change comes with an assured six-month delay in momentum of the administration to accomplish its mandate,

10)  The understanding of the potential risk a fired PM could have on the second-term election hopes of an incumbent,

11)  I don’t think any sitting President in his right mind would unnecessarily antagonize and make an enemy of a person as primly astute and energetic as PM Kheyre. UAE and the meek Somalia opposition politicians (those left out in the changes) would see the prospect of Kheyre as their teammate a tantalizing opportunity of a lifetime. As a president, I will cringe at the thought of someone like Kheyre having all the free time to opposing my government. Whoa!

12)  Some in President Farmaajo’s inner circle might not rest easy after Kheyre is fired for the simple reason that, more than a “Farah Abdulkadir” happening to him, they might be left without his protection and the uncertainly of what steps he’d take to avenge his treatment,

13)  Although it might weigh nothing against the stubbornness of Nabad iyo Nobal, there’s a general perception that, of the FG leaders, Kheyre enjoys some higher level of trust and confidence in the face of the IC and removing him at whim on flimsy grounds might not sit well with some of them,

14)  Nabad iyo Nolol is more into breaking news record: two year mark with first PM, and the first and last to have a president finish his term with his first and only PM.

15)  Hassan Kheyre is here to stay

16)  I hope I am wrong,

17)   You wish so.

WQ: Ali Hasan Mohamed “Jeego”
allygaab2006@gmail.com

Nairobi

Please Note that this article is not shared with any other media. It’s exclusive to Caasimada. Thank you, Ali Jeego.