Last week tonight according to Galbeedi

[galbeedi]

 

A lot has happened in the world for the last week, especially in the horn of Africa and Helsinki, Finland.. In this segment we will try to filter and give it our own spin. Since the media has failed to report the whole news , and the Somali websites  show only moving pictures with almost zero content and logical analysis, I Galbeedi will act as a pundit to interpret the new and analyse on my own view of the world. 

 

There are more than one superpowers.

 

Since 1990, after the collapse of Soviet Union, America became the lone super power , and acted as the policeman of the world. During these period, America has done a lot of good deeds around the globe including saving of the innocent victims of war in Bosnia, Kosovo and other places. Yet, the undisputed supremacy of the U.S was eroded by concentrating its efforts  to dominate, destroy and control the middle east.

 

While America was waging wars in Iraq and other places since 1991, China had took a 25 year of nation building which made them manufacturing power of the world. They are already a quite superpower that will soon become the largest economy.

 

Helsinki and the crowning of Putin as the other superpower.

 

The media doesn't report the inside story in Helsinki, but insiders say that the whole affair was a negotiations between Putin and Netanyahu while Trump was representing the later. Behind the door talks were specifically about Syria, Golan heights, and Ukraine. Israel, with help of Wahabi insurgents , gulf money and weapons and American policy tried to dismantle and set up a pro Saudi entity in Syria. After seven years of war, Assad is winning the war, but Israel, by default had brought both HizbuAllah and the Iranian militia at their northern door. Just like the dismantling of Saddam strengthened Iran, the war in Syria has brought Iranian missiles at the Israeli door. Be careful of what you wish.

 

Netanyahu knows that no American military will wage a war against Iran at the moment, yet now Iran and their proxies are at the gate. He also know that a ground war is unwinnable against Iran , so he has to go to  Moscow and find solutions for the problems he himself has created. Putin is willing to help, but he needs to get something in exchange. Also, everyone knows that Putin will keep his promise unlike America.

 

Netanyahu accepts the presence of Assad and his forces in Golan Heights and Southwestern Syria. Even the Jordan border area which American said were off limits for Assad was taken over by Syrian army after heavy bombing.. Iran rejects any move out of Syria since they were invited by Assad , yet the mischievous Persians are willing to trade for the bigger deal. On the other hand Putin wants Netanyahu to help him normalize relations with Trump and America.

 

Putin want norman relations and lifting of the sanctions, plus a referendum in Eastern Ukraine, and might even add for the weakening of Nato or to stop anymore enlargement of Nato. Israel wants Iran to  leave Syria completely, and Iran wants to preserve the nuclear deal in order to leave Syria.. Folks, these were the real discussions in Helsinki. On the other hand Trump is scared to admit the  he got help  from Russia during the election. There were no nuclear reduction or other issues. As usual it is all about the middle east . 

 

Trump is in big trouble , yet he is more popular with his base than before. The media is trying to vet and scrutinize Trump after the fact. Usually, candidates are vetted before the election not after the fact. There are two thoughts on Trump . One says that America is not a banana republic and at the end Trump will not only be  impeached,  but will be put behind bars with his careless disregard of American political order. The other school says that the same established that failed to stop Trump during the campaign want him to transform America in a new image that is radically different , and despite the noise , he might even re elected again.

 

Brussels and fundraising for Amisom forces.

 

It was another round of Somali leaders looking for unearned money from the world. None of the money raised will reach the Somali soldiers or strengthen the military capacity of the country. Somalia is still under arms sanctions while Amisom is armed to the teeth. As soon as the Belgium money hit the airwaves, Uganda had announced to send more soldiers to Somalia.

 

It seems that Farmaajo is becoming the best thing that happen to  the war profiteers, NGO's, Amisom soldiers and those who want the status quo. For 18 years since the Carta government in Djibouti, the Somali government could not pass Mogadishu. Both the regional government of Banadir and Farmaajo rule a Baghdad style green zones with blocked streets. Billions of dollars are consumed in the name of Somalia. Even the separatists who used to claim to be another imaginary country had decided to join the regional governments and get some of the pie. Close to 60 billion are spent in Somalia since 1991.

 

In fact, despite the success of the Farmaajo government to built national institutions and repatriation of Somali air controllers  and rescuing of Somalis from jails around the world, nothing tangible is taking place on the security issues. Insurgents are active both in the capital and surrounding area. No mistake about it, the parameter that Farmaajo will be judged would be security and security only. The problem is that town , Mogadishu is awash with money and war profiteers from around the world have descended to make money.,  Unless a new vision and strategy is  introduced, expect the same fate as the last leader.

 

Hargeisa has lost its marbles.

 

Muuse Biixi is looking a settlement and way out of the Tukaraq quagmire, yet he doesn't know how to get out. He sent some elders and business people to Garoowe to negotiate on his behalf, and they were met by another elders and were told to leave the issues for the political leaders ( Waxay moodayeen sida Hargeisa in hawl walba ay Kaabo Qabiiladu Dhameeyaan). The latest news is that Muuse want to go back to the original place called Gambadhe, but the Garaad community in Puntland had insisted for the recovery of Laascaanood. Some in the international community  are trying to find a way for C/weli Gaas to declare  victory while Muuse relocates to his original place.

 

While  the Tukaraq  issues is important, for the Jeegaan administration, the GX issue and Ceel Afweyn is the paramount issue at the moment. Deep down Muuse knows that the Jeegaan can't rule without the consent of the other groups. In order to find wayout, Muuse had contacted Ismaciil Hurre Buubaa,  the Henry Kissinger of Somaliland who had participated many plots in his lifetime. Buuba was the architect of the enlargement of the Waddani party by creating elaborate titles like ' Gudoomiyaha Xisbiga, Hogaamiyaha Xisbiga and so forth. He kept the pressure to Muuse and arranged behind the scene the G.X Shir in Gacal Libaax. He openly told Muuse to either follow the tribal route of Cigaal and Siilaanyo to marginalize politically the largest community or to create a new strategy. As of now , we do not know what the new plan between Buuba and Biixi. 

 

After almost 30 years, Somaliland must sit and share the cash in the begging bowl with the rest of the regional states. Furthermore, in the future, the aid money must be given directly to the communities and civil societies to build water wells and other badly needed services. 

 

The fast moving of Abiy Ahmed train.

 

Eritrea came out of isolation after 20 years . Everyone was surprised the love and affection this Abiy guy has shown to the leaders of Eritrea. Abiy  welcomed the foreign minister of Eritrea by himself, and afforded him full state honours. He visited Eritrea, and invited Asias Afework to Addis, and the rest is history. Despite the normalization of the relations, the moves Abiy made with Eritrea are more political than most. His strategy is to box the restive Tigray province and the TPLF both politically and geographically. With Eritrea on board, the Tigray region can't entertain to separate or do any mischief against the new order. The secret service men of Asias,  who was both  the benefactor of the TPLF and its creator,  had already descended to Addis and monitor the movements of their cousins and disguise themselves since they speak the same language.

 

Military coup is out of the question since most of conscripts are Ahmara and Oromo while the officer corp is predominantly Tigray. Yet, everyone is waiting whether the TPLf will disappear for good or they might have one last card to derail the fast moving train.

 

On the Somali Republic side, so far there is no tangible advantage from the change of the guard. Mr. Abiy had even moved cleverly to destabilize the Farmaajo government by not only releasing C/karim Qalbidhagax, but also showing affection and humanity. That move alone has tremendously discredited the Farmaajo government which had falsely claimed to outlaw the Somali freedom fighters of ONLF. Qalbidhagax had already wounded Farmaajo last year, but the nightmare continue.

 

As the Ethiopian Birr loses value, the UAE came to the rescue and deposited a billion or more to stabilize.This close ties with the UAE might create more friction. On the other hand, it is also a well known fact by now that the Farmaajo government has close political connection with the outgoing TPLf order. Farmaajo, like his predecessor had believed that an alliance with TPLF might preserve  his power and help defeat Al-shabaab. Anyway, so far no advantage for Somalia at the moment from the Abiy Ahmed train.

 

Jijiga is waiting for freedom.

 

Of course there are still clashes between the Oromo and Somalis in some pockets in border communities in Moyale, Tulli and Baabili. With full intervention of the federal army these clashed has subsided. This week the army commander in Tulli area gathered 20 elders from both sides and told them to stop oe else. Yet the Cabdi Illey propaganda continues. His employees in Jijiga had staged demonstrations to keep the status quo and called themselves, the resurgent radicals  " Mitidka Dib U Curashada" . The same people who victimized and murdered Somalis for the last ten years are calling to continue the communal fight with Oromo. 

 

Despite the release of the prisoners in Jijiga there is no visible change in the Somali Galbeed. As usual we Somalis are waiting others to change our lives.

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Ahmed abjye is going very well indeed he released all amhara opposition onlf is out of the terrorist cell. Relations with asmara is restored embassies 're opened he believes in a great horn of afrique free market free trade open borders  this guy might be greater than haile selassie and menelik the founder of the modern Ethiopian state. Syria is over halyey bashar al asad defeated the Jewish proxies American proxies in Syria daciish al nusra fsa are all defeated...mujaahid biixi is about to solve the ceelafweyn conflict between  the brotherly clans  And closing down the border with the pirates we shall do god willing and defeated they shall be. Muse is a general he doesnt retreat not does he has respect for garaad clan who are refugees in garowe.   In other newsfarmaajos nisa intelligence office was broken into and allot of files were stolen situation in Mogadishu is not better than the time we had Hassan sh Mahmoud there meeshi wey si walaatay and alshabaab is stronger than ever

[Mooge]

niyoow i was thinking the other day on whether Old observer is planning a big comeback against Abiy. so far Abiy is on a roll and nobody is stopping him. where is the TPLF?

[Old_Observer]

23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

There were no nuclear reduction or other issues. As usual it is all about the middle east . 

Perfect. They were talking something else than what they announced or spoke to media. Now a congressman is wanting to interrogate the interpreter. I don't if legal to do that.

23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Mogadishu is awash with money and war profiteers from around the world have descended to make money.,  Unless a new vision and strategy is  introduced, expect the same fate as the last leader

Mogadishu oh Mugadisho a sink hole of the Republic. Long time recognized fact is that Somalia recovery will not be in Mugadishu. The powerhouses in Mugadishu, one of them need to win clearly and the other accept defeat and look for allies outside of Mugadishu. Then all the regions would be looking for alliances and interacting. As it is now the houses in Mugadishu have no need of the rest of the country.

23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Military coup is out of the question since most of conscripts are Ahmara and Oromo while the officer corp is predominantly Tigray. Yet, everyone is waiting whether the TPLf will disappear for good or they might have one last card to derail the fast moving train.

Isn't it amazing that everybody is expecting something. Rest assured Tigray are not stupid to go against America/UAE/SAUDI/EGYPT combination. Will stay low. The Oromo or Amhara cannot do much without them anyway. Will always be significant. The question maybe just how significant.

23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Anyway, so far no advantage for Somalia at the moment from the Abiy Ahmed train.

You were the only one expecting the Oromo at least to overthrow Iley. The rest of the Somali world knew what is the most or least Oromo could do. An Oromo with UAE money, what did you expect. This is the case where you went with your heart and not your head.

23 hours ago, galbeedi said:

there is no visible change in the Somali Galbeed. As usual we Somalis are waiting others to change our lives.

What did you want the Somali Galbeed to do go into civil war. Don't expect much your way. Iley might retire or go to federal politics since he has now enough political capital to mix in the tribes in Addis Ababa. The system is reasonably matured in Kililka that any confident Somali in his skin can run it.

[Old_Observer]

3 hours ago, Mooge said:

niyoow i was thinking the other day on whether Old observer is planning a big comeback against Abiy. so far Abiy is on a roll and nobody is stopping him. where is the TPLF?

Mooge,

A nomad cannot be always nomad. Sometimes has to be farmer and seldom a hunter gatherer. He has not done much against them anyway. As long as he does not affect the Federal system or kilil, His noisy supporters are already doubting him. The Oromo are happy to get PM, president Defence minister, foreign minister which none of them were Tigray.

You don't hear Ghelleh even breathing now, do you? The Tigray cannot go against America, Gulf Arabs. Will stay low.

As usual America might want them out of front office, but would not want them to go far away. There has to be Xabeshi and the Amhara can never replace Tigray except in internet.

[galbeedi]

28 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

On 7/20/2018 at 9:19 PM, galbeedi said:

 

What did you want the Somali Galbeed to do go into civil war. Don't expect much your way. Iley might retire or go to federal politics since he has now enough political capital to mix in the tribes in Addis Ababa. The system is reasonably matured in Kililka that any confident Somali in his skin can run it.

OO,

. Cabdi Illey will not join the EPRDF or the tribal politics in Addis. Most people believe that Illey will go abroad mostly UAE or one of the gulf countries where he would be immune from prosecution.

There is always alternatives for Somalis if you are confident and independent Somali. There will be a gathering in Dire Dawa in July 30, where most of Somalis including top former members of CAbdi Illey's comrades will attend. I did listen some of the former guerilla members who joined Illey and his security seven or eight years ago and they are speaking out.

one former confidant who spoke in Dire Dawa said that he personally encouraged Illey to join the demonstrations against the TPLF and join the Oromo and Amhara. He said, " when it comes to  rebellion or uprising against the Ethiopian order,  we Somalis should be ahead of Oromo or Ahmara. We were the freedom fighters before any one of  them, if you can't lead , allow us just like other Killil to  rise up and control our region".

When an armed Amhara group with help of the amhara regional leader expelled the TPLF federal police, the system was weakened. Finally Desaleyn had enough of Tigray emergency rule. It was a shock when he resigned.

Yet,  Illey decided to go the other way and create the civil war on behalf of the TPLF. Fore a prison warden, freedom is the worst thing to happen.

IF you oppose change, the forces of change will target you no matter who you are. A country like Ethiopia opens up every 30 years, and then closes up, so now is the time for Somalis to rise up and control their destiny.

 

[galbeedi]

46 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

Amhara can never replace Tigray except in internet.

The main job of the Tigray must be to keep the Amhara out of the power . The problem is the Amhara are the most patient people in the horn, and they will wait their turn another ten years or so. Now they are riding the Abiy Ahmed horse.

The Oromo will no longer be a second class citizen. Tens of thousands of their youth had went to universities and will not rest until a full change takes place. 

The best solution for communal peace is to depose Illey and crown a pro reform Somali who want to open a new page with Oromo neighbors.

[Tallaabo]

Despite our political differences and the occasional locking of horns, I do enjoy our Galbeedi's journalistic contributions (although his insider sources are as non-existent as the personalities behind the folklore characters of dhagdheer and cigaal shidaad) 

[Old_Observer]

7 hours ago, galbeedi said:

OO,

. Cabdi Illey will not join the EPRDF or the tribal politics in Addis. Most people believe that Illey will go abroad mostly UAE or one of the gulf countries where he would be immune from prosecution.

There is always alternatives for Somalis if you are confident and independent Somali. There will be a gathering in Dire Dawa in July 30, where most of Somalis including top former members of CAbdi Illey's comrades will attend. I did listen some of the former guerilla members who joined Illey and his security seven or eight years ago and they are speaking out.

one former confidant who spoke in Dire Dawa said that he personally encouraged Illey to join the demonstrations against the TPLF and join the Oromo and Amhara. He said, " when it comes to  rebellion or uprising against the Ethiopian order,  we Somalis should be ahead of Oromo or Ahmara. We were the freedom fighters before any one of  them, if you can't lead , allow us just like other Killil to  rise up and control our region".

When an armed Amhara group with help of the amhara regional leader expelled the TPLF federal police, the system was weakened. Finally Desaleyn had enough of Tigray emergency rule. It was a shock when he resigned.

Yet,  Illey decided to go the other way and create the civil war on behalf of the TPLF. Fore a prison warden, freedom is the worst thing to happen.

IF you oppose change, the forces of change will target you no matter who you are. A country like Ethiopia opens up every 30 years, and then closes up, so now is the time for Somalis to rise up and control their destiny.

 

Hard to tell, but generally safe to say that Iley took better option. As you know, its very easy to find a window to the Somali soul and split him. Nomad culture is quick to action once starts not flexible. A Somali thinks changing tactics is like defeat.

This way is much better. Kililka is better united except some like you lol. The worst seems to be over. You are aware that whatever happens in Djibouti has more impact on Kililka than Somalia.

BTW the case where Iley outed the intelligence chief is not against TPLF. It is just against some clique in TPLF. Iley was close to the military guys like Samora Mohamed Yonus who are like cat and mouse with the Intelligence guy. The intelligence guy is still close to Abiy. Samora has retired after 17 years. Very successful career fighter since age 17.

The Somali people should never get to deep in Ethiopian power politics unless has decided never to separate. Its give and take if you go deep, that means Ethiopia will also get deep into kililka. You cannot be the only one who gets all the participation. Network data moves both directions.

America doesn't seem so confident anymore of the changes. I think PM Abiy took instruction literally and gave Eritrea whatever it wanted. The Amhara are now up in arms. And some Oromo as well. The issue internally is that "we are going from one Tigray to another".

If ONLF stays outside everything will work out better.

 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

8 hours ago, galbeedi said:

The main job of the Tigray must be to keep the Amhara out of the power . The problem is the Amhara are the most patient people in the horn, and they will wait their turn another ten years or so. Now they are riding the Abiy Ahmed horse.

The Oromo will no longer be a second class citizen. Tens of thousands of their youth had went to universities and will not rest until a full change takes place. 

The best solution for communal peace is to depose Illey and crown a pro reform Somali who want to open a new page with Oromo neighbors.

The Amhara don't need Tigray to keep them out. They can never be united. In Their kilil have many Ethnics that they did not respect and treat well in the past even now. Amhara also have big population everywhere especially in Oromia. Their interest is no federalism, no kilil. That is a non starter today in Ethiopia.

As you said Ethiopia does shakeup every 2-3 decades. You cannot be patient when really down. The Somali, Afar can be patient. All they need to do is defend what they  have achieved. Not Amhara. They have abut 20 parties going in all directions.

 

Amhara for the most part are getting off the horse. Big issue now is a manager for Addis Ababa a friend of Abiy was put in place. The man was Oromo nationalist. Amhara are about 60% Addis residents. That is hottest issue.

Ethiopians have already started talking about all this being only replacing TPLF by OPDO. List of top officials has already started. That is how Ethiopians keep count of clan positions posts in government.

70% of bureaucracy is Amhara so now Oromo are going there. All fight now moves to bureaucracy. Tigray used to run this by having deputy or manager, but not visible posts on top. Oromo are now taking top visible posts and Amhara have started the doubt, the critic and some downright opposition.

Believe it or not Tigray and Somali had similar numbers in ministers and state ministers.

You must have some reason to continue blaming the Somali for the conflict with Oromo. That is not the case. Its normal economic and zonal control conflict. How come the federal and army were accused yet are the same once Abiy sends lol is just politics.

You and your side had high hopes that Abiy can force anybody in Kililka especially Iley. The best thing is if Iley leaves on his own or internally push quietly among Somalis. Any outside pressure the Somali Galbeed will never unite. The thing with TPLF not fracturing Kililka is that the very people that oppose Iley were closest friends of TPLF from 1994 till 2017.

TPLF is from far away. Oromo on the other hand are next door and some cases inside. If you give window they make it a big door.

Everybody is waiting what America, UAE, Saudis..next step is. One thing is for sure you can see signs America does not want Tigray to go far lol. You can see signs of it. Amhara cannot replace them. Tigray and Afar have same interest and same problems with Eritrea. They were always close and now even closer.

 

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

3 hours ago, Tallaabo said:

Despite our political differences and the occasional locking of horns, I do enjoy our Galbeedi's journalistic contributions (although his insider sources are as non-existent as the personalities behind the folklore characters of dhagdheer and cigaal shidaad) 

Tallaabo,

Ninyahow, That is cruel jab.

I talk to people and present their view here.Do You want me to name them? I do not think so.

Besides, this thread was according to me.