Why Djibouti is the loser of the horn of Africa’s new peace

[Suldaanka]

Ethiopians and Eritreans alike are celebrating the breakneck speed of a rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara, two longtime enemies. Closer ties between the two, while not necessarily a done deal, could usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for the Horn of Africa, resuming a thriving trade relationship and granting landlocked Ethiopia access to a new port. Unfortunately, nearby Djibouti—which has successfully exploited its prime territory on the Red Sea to offer both port access and military bases to foreign countries—stands to lose. At the least, this tectonic shift will reduce the revenues available to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999, and undermine his ironclad grip on the country. At worst, Djibouti could prove a spoiler, which would threaten prospects for regional peace as well as longstanding US strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.

For decades, Djibouti was the undisputed winner of Ethiopian-Eritrean hostility and the latter’s international isolation. The New Jersey-sized country of just under one million people has unique geostrategic advantages—its coastline spans the meeting of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a chokepoint through which significant amounts of the world’s energy supply and commerce pass every year. While ports exist in Sudan, Somaliland, and Eritrea, Djibouti’s developed facilities, political stability, and investment-friendly atmosphere have proven more attractive than anywhere else in the region. As a result, Djibouti has enjoyed a near-monopoly on moving goods to and from landlocked Ethiopia.

The United States also has longstanding security interests in Djibouti, including the only permanent US military base on the continent—a vital component of US counterterrorism operations in East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Some 4,000 US military personnel are stationed at the American base, which extends to the nearby airport used to launch both armed and reconnaissance drones that operate in Somalia and Yemen. Underscoring the country’s strategic importance to the Pentagon, US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis visited Djibouti in April 2017, just months ahead of the opening of China’s first overseas military base there. Additionally, France, Japan, Italy, and Saudi Arabia have bases of various sizes and capabilities in Djibouti.

Ethiopia and Djibouti have traditionally maintained a close political and economic relationship out of mutual necessity. When the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war broke out in 1998, Ethiopia lost access to Eritrea’s port, an existential crisis for a landlocked country. Since then, Ethiopia has overwhelmingly relied on Djiboutian ports to process its imports and exports: some 95 percent of Ethiopian imports transit through Djibouti. Djibouti, too, relies on its larger neighbor, from which it imports freshwater and electricity. Profits from Ethiopia’s use of Djiboutian ports—estimates top $1 billion annually—are a key source of Guelleh’s government revenue. But Ethiopia finds this arrangement deeply flawed, and is interested in more diverse, and better, deals for port access. The United States, as well, is deeply dissatisfied with Guelleh’s partnership. Specifically, his penchant for extracting costly rents from as many foreign militaries as possible, including allowing a Chinese military base just kilometers from the US one, has left the United States discontented.

Eritrea and Djibouti have a more restive history, and unresolved tensions could flare up again. Djibouti’s western border with Eritrea has been militarized since the end of border clashes in 2008. Qatar attempted to mediate the dispute, and it even managed to facilitate a 2016 prisoner swap before withdrawing its peacekeepers from the Eritrean-Djiboutian border in protest of both countries’ decision to side with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Gulf crisis.

Djibouti’s shipping and land lease profits directly supplement Guelleh’s tight political control over the country. The Chinese will reportedly pay $20 million a year until 2025 for their base, though that figure does not include more than $1 billion in Chinese loans. The Americans pay some $70 million annually for at least another six years, and the French pay another $30-plus million yearly for their military facility. These profits contribute to what appears to be a booming economy: Djibouti’s annual GDP growth is expected to remain around 7 percent into the near future. But despite Djibouti’s ostensible riches, most of the country remains desperately poor, underdeveloped, and subject to Guelleh’s authoritarianism. Nearly a quarter of the population lives in extreme poverty, and Djibouti ranks abysmally on political rights and civil liberties.

Ethiopia-Eritrea peace talks are bad news for Guelleh, who has staked his country’s growth on its role as the port of choice for economic giants like Ethiopia. Assuming normalization efforts continue, Ethiopia could soon have the option to use Eritrea’s ports, which are closer and more convenient than Djibouti. While it is unlikely that Ethiopia will cease using Djiboutian ports altogether, it will have options—and thus will be less inclined to settle for usurious port usage rates. Eritrea may even prove a welcoming partner to foreign militaries, as the country previously allowed Emirati use of its port at Assab to prosecute the war in Yemen. One constraint on Ethiopia’s turn away from Djibouti, however, is its imperative to pay back nearly $3 billion in Chinese loans for the newly opened Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway.

Lastly, if foreign militaries follow Ethiopia’s lead and diversify their security partners, Guelleh will rapidly lose a key source of income, making the four-term president vulnerable to longstanding grievances about his government’s corruption and repression. Once his resources dry up, the little political support he has been able to cajole or co-opt will likely follow.

In recent years, the UAE’s increasing interest in the Horn of Africa adds a new complication to Djibouti’s predicament. The UAE has acquired rights to a naval base in Eritrea, a military base and commercial port in Somaliland, and a multi-purpose port in Puntland. But relations between Djibouti and the UAE have been fraught since February 2018 when the Djiboutian government cancelled the contract of Emirati firm Dubai Ports World (DP World) to operate Djibouti’s main container shipping terminal. Early reports suggest that the UAE might have even played a role in the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The UAE’s growing partnership with Ethiopia—which recently acquired a 19 percent stake in the Berbera port alongside DP World and Somaliland—is also noteworthy evidence of regional diversification.

While it is unfortunate that Guelleh perceives normalization with Eritrea as a zero-sum game, he has some reason to be nervous that Addis Ababa and Asmara are warming up to one another. The faster they normalize relations, the faster Djibouti’s strategic advantages disappear—and with them, Guelleh’s cash flow. Resolving a decades-long conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would strengthen overall regional stability and open new doors for economic trade and prosperity. But there are very real losers in that scenario, and the opportunity to spoil the well-deserved peace should be carefully scrutinized.

Kelsey Lilley is associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center. Follow her on Twitter at @KelseyDegen.

[Che -Guevara]

Fortunes change quickly in this part of the world.

[Old_Observer]

Africans and Arabs are famous for doing these things. Calling Brother etc even when they have nothing in common.

 

I wouldn't count too much on it. Afar and Tigray are the two that border Eritrea. PM Abiy went out of his way to tell Eritreans that they need to love Afar and Tigray. They are not listening, to emotional after being boxed for 20 years from all sides Djibouti, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Ghelleh all he needs to do is keep low, no interviews to any media. They will send him BBC, CNN..to entice him to say something. No trips to foreign countries and not accept any visits from countries that are not best terms with US, UK, France...

All this will blow over in a years time. All Ethiopian infrastructure is with Djibouti.

 

He needs to ask the French to monitor the Eritrean border as did in the past. Hopefully 1 billion is not enough to make Abiy to be tool to destroy Ghelleh. That I think would be most dangerous for Ethiopian unity. Ghelleh is not saint in kililka, but if Ethiopia did anything mischevious against him to side with UAE and Eritrea, that I think would rile the Somali, Afar and Tigray not far behind.

 

 

[Ifiye]

I think Djibouti is geting punished because of their independent foreign policy lately.  I fear for this tiny brotherly nation surrounded by hostile enemies. I think Mr Geele needs to bring the Turkish armed forces for protection just like tiny Qatar. 

[Duufaan]

I see Geele continue winning. He will be there when Trump is gone. The somali region oil is going to export through Jabuiti ports which will give him both new source of income and leverage. The port business may decline little bit when Asmara port is open to Ethiopia. The goods going to region will grow also with higher rate. China will be his side for more cash. He is in control. Only economic troubles and outside military invation can be treat to his leadership

 Dictators do not fall too easy. Ereterian leader had survived 26 years. Geele is master and has better times ahead with all consequences.

[Tillamook]

^

What you guys are overlooking are the Chinese, and whether they will take these fast moving changes in the Horn lying down without muddying the waters  a bit.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

48 minutes ago, Tillamook said:

^

What you guys are overlooking are the Chinese, and whether they will take these fast moving changes in the Horn lying down with muddying the waters  a bit.

 

 

Most likely Chinese will take it lying down. They don't have anything worth risking big here. Sudan can muddy the waters a bit, but its at risk from Egypt who would do anything for America.

More than anything else Ghelleh's refusal to allow his territory for war in Yemen is now being pushed as grievance by UAE. Saudi's had accepted the fact that will conduct Yemen war from Djibouti. Eritrea is now allowing unfettered access for war in Yemen.

Next is Eritrea is allowing use of its sea, land for anything against Iran which Djibouti did not want to get into.

Patience is virtue now for Djibouti. Al Bashir has survived 4 American presidents, 2 Saudi kings, 3 Egyptian presidents, 2 Ethiopian totally different regimes....etc.

 

 

 

[maakhiri1]

Djibouti has a world class ports, they must  innovate more, competition is good, and Ethiopia are dumb if they put all their eggs in one basket. 

So nothing to worry.

[Old_Observer]

2 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Djibouti has a world class ports, they must  innovate more, competition is good, and Ethiopia are dumb if they put all their eggs in one basket. 

So nothing to worry.

As it is unless UAE invests about half a billion dollars in Assab alone and double the money to do it within a year or two, Eritrea will need 10 years to just get where Djibouti one port is right now.

There is 4 ports in Djibouti and about 3 are ready for use including existing one.

Then you have dry port functional, train, good roads. experienced workers...etc

As far as putting in one basket, depends what UAE and America are telling them to do.

[maakhiri1]

16 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

As it is unless UAE invests about half a billion dollars in Assab alone and double the money to do it within a year or two, Eritrea will need 10 years to just get where Djibouti one port is right now.

There is 4 ports in Djibouti and about 3 are ready for use including existing one.

Then you have dry port functional, train, good roads. experienced workers...etc

As far as putting in one basket, depends what UAE and America are telling them to do.

The arabs are dumb too if they think investing more in another independent African country will do for them, IOG kicked them out, what other assurance will they get from Asmara? I think we are reading too much into this. It is overall positive, and good for the region. East Africa can be prosperous if they focus more peace, trade, and developments.

 

[maakhiri1]

Keep in mind, the region is extremely underdeveloped, and the more the merrier!

[Old_Observer]

17 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

The arabs are dumb too if they think investing more in another independent African country will do for them, IOG kicked them out, what other assurance will they get from Asmara? I think we are reading too much into this. It is overall positive, and good for the region. East Africa can be prosperous if they focus more peace, trade, and developments.

 

The Arabs are trying to maintain their position, which is white man, Arab, African in that order. They are not going to invest much in Eritrea Assab, Bassaso or Berbera. They will just do enough to prevent Djibouti from eliminating the Arab middleman position.

The Arabs had been middle man for Romans, slave trade, ottomans, Americans...over Africans.

They cannot and will not allow an African to play without middleman.

Other Africans will always be available to bring him down and force him to hire a middleman. Ethiopia and Eritrea are more than happy to do that on Djibouti. They will try to force Djibouti to accept a middleman. I hope Djibouti to hire British or French middleman instead of Arab. Still under middleman to America, but more autonomous middleman in Europe than Arab middleman.

 

 

[Duufaan]

Arab yesterday are different than Arab today. At least the old Arabs knew how to survive in the desert. The ones today can not even read the instructions given them. So there is no point dealing them honestly. This time, they do not have any benefit been around the Horn.

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Duufaan said:

Arab yesterday are different than Arab today. At least the old Arabs knew how to survive in the desert. The ones today can not even read the instructions given them. So there is no point dealing them honestly. This time, they do not have any benefit been around the Horn.

If you are not in the horn, you are a nobody. That is just nature, geography both natural and human.

That has been and still is the show of important powers big and small.

That is what the the Romans, the Persians,  the Portuguese, the British, the French, the Chinese, the Ottomans, the Soviets, the Americans...anyone that made a name for themselves had to show up in the horn.

The Arabs have to also show up in the horn to be somebody even a middleman. No existence of any significance can be claimed if you don't show up in the horn and succeed in hoisting your flag. If the British take Kenya, trust me the french could care less, If the Americans take Kenya the soviets could care less. The horn is a different story.

That is why no matter how strong anyone in the horn home boys will be tripped by his own brother working for another one that wants to have foot in the horn.

The Somali which after 2 centuries experience can now be called unfortunately has the most in the horn and gets the most beating, suffering, pays highest price...maybe smaller part would have been manageable. The British even in their heyday did not want and were not interested in more horn than what they really needed. They were happy and even helped Italians to take more than they can chew just so the french would not take it.

 

[Xaaji Xunjuf]

Djibouti should host amhara opposition ginbot7 EPPF. And other amhara opposition.  Djibouti should behind the scene work with amhara Abyssinian nationalist who don't recognize Eritrea independence in order to create future conflicts between habasha in asmara and habasha oromo alliance in Addis Ababa.

Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia is bad news for us in djibouti or Somaliland 

  I urge ina cumar geele  towork with elf jabha in kassala eastern Sudan. The same way sheikh Hassan  Basri gave  afewerki a hard time in the 1990s  the revival of Eritrean Islamic jihad can be an option to.