From Addis to Jijiga and Hargeisa, the TPLF evil alliance may collapse soon.

[galbeedi]

The high speed train of change led by prime minister Abiy Ahmed is transforming not only Ethiopia but the whole region of East Africa. In Eritrea , Abiy siad, " this is not an agreement but the conclusion of a long yearning between our people".

 

Just like that, the 20 years blockade, embargo and state of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea ceased to exist within days. 

 

Now,  many of as will ask how about the Somali zone?. Many of you have expressed that while Cabdi Illey is cruel and criminal , his removal and collapse might create a civil war among Somalis. While that possibility exist, the majority of Somalis want to end not only the tyranny, but the murder, torture and abuse in the Somali zone. His horrific crimes was chronicled by Amnesty International and others.

 

No Somali administration in history had ever committed such gruesome murder and cruel torture as Illey has done  for the last 10 years. Yet, the whole process to subjugate the Somali people in Somali Galbeed and create the fragmentation of the Somali people was masterminded by the TPLF. This elaborate system was multi faced program to subjugate, Somalis, create division among Somalis and enrich themselves in the process.

 

This process is stretched from Addis to Jiijiga and Hargeisa.  

 

I did mention in this pages about the money laundering schemes that removes hard currency from the Ethiopian banks to Jijiga-Wajaale-Dubai. Through this route the TPLF had looted millions. That is the business side. Both Illey, Jeegaan and the TPLF got rich of these routes especially for the last eight years.

 

On the political side, they have created an evil alliance to blockade the Somali people in the border region while enriching the Jeegaan administration in Hargeisa. About eight  years ago, there was a claim that Eritrea trained ONLF members had landed the Awdal coast and passed through the region. This elaborate set up was masterminded by the Siilaanyo administration three months after coming to power.

 

It was impossible that an embargoed country like Eritrea would ship arms to the Somali coast guarded by international navies and land Lughaya and Zaylac , and then pass through hundreds of miles. It was an elaborate lie. In order to stop this false passage of men and arms through Awdal region, The former Jeegaan administration of Siilaanyo advised the TPLF and Cabdi Illey to blockade any movements of goods from Awdal region. For nine years both side of the Awdal border was blockaded and there were checkpoints in every 10 kms.

 

It was the TPLF who had created the alliance between Jeegaan and Illy. Cabdi Illey comes and goes both to Wajaale and Hargeisa without notice. Through the Jeegaan, he even eliminated and killed those who were political rivals of the Jeegaan. In Gaashaamo he killed about 40 members of that community after skirmishes with Liyuu police. When Suldaan Wabar was organizing his rebellion in Awdal mountains at the border, Illey sent his Liyuu police and crushed. In fact, the chief accountant and administrator for Cabdi Illey happen to be from a Jeegaan residents in Wajaale.

 

As late as last December when Muuse Biixi was crowned, a 30 column of gun mounted and private land cruisers had come to Hargeisa to take part. The TPLF protected these  entities both to subjugate the people and keep the power in the Somali regions and protect their money routes. Some people believe that Muuse Biixi's move to Tukaraq  had a direct  blessing of the TPLF. In fact, the TPLF had protected the Somaliland project for the last 25 years. Providing military training and weapons procurement.

 

When the Issue of Laascaanood came after C/laahi Yusuf went to Mogadishu, the TPLF had told Cadde Muuse to stay out. Every time there is skirmishes in the East, the TPLF took the line of Somaliland. Muuse Biixi followed the same formula advocated by the TPLF  that helped Rayaale, Siilaanyo and put pressure successive Puntland leaders including Faroole and C/weli Gaas. Unfortunately, after his January 2018, move of taking Tukaraq, suddenly the TPLF appointed puppet Hailemariam Desalegn had resigned after massive protest from the Oromo people. Biixi had moved in but the overlords had gone.

 

As we speak that TPLF front is collapsing both in Ethiopia and the Somali Zone. As we speak, Cabdi Illey was recalled and asked to resign. He accepted the order , but he requested to announce his resignation in Jijiga rather than in Addis. Some even believe that he might be prosecuted for war crimes and crimes against humanity. A reliable source told me that while Abiy was away, Illey had met some of the shakers of the TPLf leaders and they encouraged him to declare and independent Somali Kilil. The TPLf said to him that as soon as you declare  we will follow suit and declare independence according to article 39 of the constitution.

 

As the news of the TPLF move became public, the federal army brought thousands of soldiers to the region and Jjijga. Meanwhile , the ONLF in Asmara had elected new leaders and there is consultations among Somalis. The best option is to appoint a caretaker leader while Somalis are organizing. 

 

While his sister in law who is vice president denied his resignation, illey could resign as early as Wednesday July 11. If the transition goes smoothly, after 20 years of blockade and poverty, and  the enriching of the Jeegaan and Illey  rule should  be over. The Somali people should reject to replace one tyrant to another. A real change must come.

How can you name even the Jeel to a tribe. 

[Suldaanka]

I wish Abiye Ahmed good lucks with his changes. It is good for Ethiopia and region.  I am particularly looking for to his openning up of the economy. That is a game changer for Somali business community. 

As far Somaliland is concerned, it is not much different than the change between Mingistu to Meles, Meles to Disalegn, Disalegn to Abiye... we will deal with each the same way.

[Suldaanka]

Galbeedi is a knowledgeable person, no doubts. However, his pationate hate for Hargeisa shroud his objectivity and reasoning. 

His analysis would have been sound if it doesn't end up bending towards wishful thinking at the end of it.  

 

[Holac]

Galbeedi, if the Oromos are so emboldened to be attempting a regime change in the Kilil, we should be very afraid for the future of the Somalis in Ethiopia. It is not about Illey per se, but the future of our people. We don't share borders with the TPLF and they are not expanding into our cities and villages. The Oromos are.  The fact that Abiy deployed thousands of troops in the area after a hint of independence was heard tells me that those celebrating Oromo Abiy's rise are in for a rude awakening.

We just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Old_Observer]

galbeedi,

Again you try to cover your intention with some false economic benefits to Awdal or other areas.

The real truth is business will go to Eritrea and Djibouti will be cut to small size or come begging UAE to come back. That is the real intention. In this all Somalis loose. No body gains anything.

The only gain for some of you is that some clans may be down and others may be up but all poorer, all going backwwards and all destroying what has been achieved.

And when the Amhara or Tigray come back which is normal in politics since the Oromo will tire too, then the clans that went down do a payback and the Somali people is tripping each other for others benefit and not moving forward.

Remember that even for the Oromo Assab is more important more controlable than Djibouti and the Afar are probably more manageable than the Somali.

 

 

 

 

 

[Khadafi]

Galbeedi spoke the truth about the history of Wooyane's TPLF history of destabilizing the horn of Africa and creating sedition amongst Somalis.  Somaalida been in ey isku sheegan ayey jecelyihiin  but who remembers the 90-ties when lorries of Ethiopian arms were arriving to feuding tribal warlords in Mogadishu.  The north wasnt so diffirent. A few somali leaders were in away getting active support in the what they saw as legitamate political project with their blinded eyes but was in realiity the weakning  of the ethnic ties that existed amongst  all Somalis  To add some salt to the injury they even added a 6-th pillar to Islam and replaced the Xajka  with the informal siyaaro to Addis Abeba.   Every aspriring somali leader went to Addis Abeba to declare his loyalty thus cementing the client-state relationship. Yaab!

Galbeedi laakin amuu ku fuduuday isbadalka Caabey Axmed? What makes him belive that the TPLF has reluinqished power without a single shot fired? Thats something that many do not understand. Africa is known for one thing surely. Jabhad iskama tagto ee tag ayaa la dhahaa.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

Iley has a lot of enemies:

Territorial Irridentist Ethiopians accuse him of preparing kililka for separation, independence. This is the most of the opposition to Iley, but is mostly never declared openly.

Neighboring kilils think Iley is clearing out and preventing others like refusing Federal army inside kililka and doing all the work by kililka itself is preparing himself for bigger role in Ethiopia.

In the general aignment of forces in Ethiopia he sides mostly with Tigray, Afar and South, but not with Oromo and he is neutral or distant to Amhara (who suspect him of separatism if things don't work in his favour).

Inside kililka is partly clanish

When ever you see HRW in any place, expect to follow the Shah of Iran situation. HRW is not a religious organization. Its a political.

Innocent Somalis entangled in the system and being victims of overzealous police, too many fronts to fight, lack of capacity in educated, modern bureaucracy and police in kililka.

Corruption, drug dealing, contraband trade...mixed with political, clan, and tribal competition and conflicts.

[galbeedi]

Holac,

If Cabdi Illey want to use article 39 and seperate the Somali zone from Ethiopia he got my vote. I will forget and forgive his crimes, because delivering the region from the yokes of Abyssinia is the biggest victory any Somali leader can claim in modern history. This false article  39 is purposely created for Tigray to opt out if the Ahmara comes back to power in Ethiopia. If the TPLF is serious about separation, let them take the first step and will follow the,

Also  remember, the larger Somali public in the zone,  including the elite , hate Abdi Illey. Some might consider his independence move  as ploy to prolong power and the Ethiopia forces will arm rival tribes which will lead to a civil war. The moment they realizing the zone is slipping from the hands of Ethiopia , they will destroy within. Believe me there is enough fuel to start the mayhem.

If The DDSI council elects a new leader while keeping the political, security  and administrative structure, the zone might survive and allow the Somalis to regroup. In the meantime Illey should keep freeing prisoners, create new legitimate regions based on population and geography and open trade with Somalis. Who knows, he might get some goodwill from the people and buy some time.

Also, I am a realist , and if Illey could protect and keep the Somali territory from others, i might even overlook his past crimes.. Somalis lost more territory to Cabdi Illey than we gained.He spent his time oppressing Somalis and he forgot his own people and land. As we speak there is war going on in Tulli just south east of Jijiga were a lot of people had died from Somalis and Oromo, yet, he didn't even sent a police or security people to stop the conflict.

Everyone is taking advantage of his former notoriety and crimes to take advantage and take revenge.

OO, I know you want to protect the interest of Djibouti and Afaar entities, but the Somali zone doesn't use the Djibouti route for trade that much.I fact, Awdal coast, Berbera and Puntland could take advantage of trade liberalization in the Somali Zone. Djibouti is not my business, Ghelle could rent some the beeches to Russians and others.

.Asmara has been the prefered port of Amhara and Tigray, and the Addis business area. We want to open more economic trades within the Somali region, from Boosaaso to Berbera, Zaylac and between.

The eastern Oromo in Hararghe zones should be trading with Somalis. Alliances are formed or fought through politics which pits against your neighbor. Why would a man in Gabiley and West Hargeisa disconnect his neighborly ties with those in the Awdal and South Hargeisa and join the Jeegaan in East Burco one thousand km away?. Because he want to hold the power and loot the meagre resources.

The Oromo were always our neighbors, yet for political reasons they put their lot with those Amhara who oppressed them for 500 years. I do believe that there is still an opportunity to live with our Oromo brothers as our neighbors and fellow countrymen in Ethiopia. 

I also believe a changing of guard in Jijiga could bring a new leader with totally different outlook than Illey. If the Eritrean blockade and war where 100,000 men died in a battle could be reversed within weeks, why not sit down with " Grand Shir" and restart a new relationship with Oromo.

Khadaafi,

I said before, Abiy Ahmed is deeply Ethiopian. His cultural background transcends the labeling of the ethnic stamp. Of course he is riding with the Oromo wave which will help him even if fair and free elections are held. Analysts say that Abiy will take over Ethiopia within a year or two with landslide elections and will rule the next 10 years. The Amhara will ride his horse for now and will prepare to take over within a decade. 

He is riding Khomeini style revolution with mob zeal. Last week , he told his followers to no longer demonstrate and begged them to slow down.. If he want to hang someone, the mob will do it for him. Despite all that, I agree with you that if they do not stop him in  the next 12 months, the TPLF will have to hide under the desk because they will e stopped on like cockroaches. They do not have the political geography or the demographic numbers to rule again. Their time is done. Their best option is that they got the best military officers and soldiers to secede from Ethiopia.

 

 

 

[galbeedi]

To be honest, I do not have real solutions for the Somali Zone. Yet, I do believe because of the weaknesses of Illey vis a vis to Oromo and others, we could lose more territory .

11 minutes ago, Old_Observer said:

In the general aignment of forces in Ethiopia he sides mostly with Tigray, Afar and South, but not with Oromo and he is neutral or distant to Amhara (who suspect him of separatism if things don't work in his favour).

OO,

The Tigray are too far to help you, and the Affar are poor and insignificant to do any changes, that is why both the Affaar and the Somali zone are not among the four ruling groups of EPRDF (Amhara, Oromo, Tigray and Southern Nations). The Southern nations are hundred mixed tribes and can aspire to be independent. 

So, as Somalis, we shouldn't be fighting for the future plans of the TPLF. The difference with Amhara and Tigray is mostly pride or for fear of TPLF of Amhara domination.

One another an related topic, I want the Muslim Oromo to replenish ,intermarry  and increase the dying Somali ethnic group.  If you go any Somali major city today, you can't find an able body Somali who can work in construction sites, restaurants, auto mechanics or even barbers. Let them assimilate and join among our ranks.

Do not allow the TPLf, the Amhara and others to use our neighbors against us. 

Waa digniin. Haddii kale Hargeisa, Borama, Boosaaso iyo Kismaayo ayey Soomalida Ethiopia wada iman.

[galbeedi]

Oh, by the way, I forgot the most important action Cabdi Illey must make during this transition period.

Cut ties to the separatists and those who are working to balkanize Somalia.

Most of the population of the Ethiopian zone might be tribal like any other ethnic Somalis, yet their biggest dream and desire is the restoration of the Somali Republic. They want their big brother back in the Horn of Africa. If you do that , definitely you will get some sympathy from the Somalis outside the Zone.

If you keep acting like a mercenary paid to dismember Somalia, then we might even collect money and try to bring you to the world war crime courts in Hague. Do not listen to mr. Old Observer who loves Somali enclaves some strategic reasons.

[galbeedi]

furthermore, conventional wisdom says, " Stay clear of the Khomeini style revolution"  the Oromo and others are  ridding or you will be a victim of it and no one will remember you.

This Abiy guy didn't fire his big guns as of  yet other the small bomb in Addis rally which he used as an excuse to eliminated most of the police hierarchy in the capital.

[Old_Observer]

59 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

OO, I know you want to protect the interest of Djibouti and Afaar entities, but the Somali zone doesn't use the Djibouti route for trade that much.I fact, Awdal coast, Berbera and Puntland could take advantage of trade liberalization in the Somali Zone. Djibouti is not my business, Ghelle could rent some the beeches to Russians and others.

Good idea, but do you know you are creating political conflict that will never help you materialize what you want? Not just are you creating conflict Kililka and Somaliland which I know you want, but Puntland and Djibouti will be in and the conflicts in the south will look like child's play since all the entities in the north and west are well armed, fairly well organized and foreign countries want them more than they want in the south.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, galbeedi said:

He is riding Khomeini style revolution with mob zeal. Last week , he told his followers to no longer demonstrate and begged them to slow down.. If he want to hang someone, the mob will do it for him. Despite all that, I agree with you that if they do not stop him in  the next 12 months, the TPLF will have to hide under the desk because they will e stopped on like cockroaches. They do not have the political geography or the demographic numbers to rule again. Their time is done. Their best option is that they got the best military officers and soldiers to secede from Ethiopia.

Tigray have no reason historically since as you know they are the core and foundation of everything Xabeshi, they also don't have the international situation for independence. Israel may always prefer them but only if they are in Ethiopia can they be useful.

The only way Tigray and Afar would separate is making war and taking over Eritrea which now they can do. Eritrea is dead in every field economically, socially, culturally, mistrust Ethnics...same as republic around 1988. But the international situation is all against them to take over Eritrea. Even other Ethiopians will prevent them.

Ghelleh is smart Somali. He will stay under radar and everything will blow away within a year. There is already signs of it between different groups of Oromo within themselves and groups of Amhara, and also within themselves jostling. Each one has groups already softening their stance on Tigray. This is third world.

[Old_Observer]

41 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

furthermore, conventional wisdom says, " Stay clear of the Khomeini style revolution"  the Oromo and others are  ridding or you will be a victim of it and no one will remember you.

This Abiy guy didn't fire his big guns as of  yet other the small bomb in Addis rally which he used as an excuse to eliminated most of the police hierarchy in the capital.

That is very true.

African mobs are even more destructive than Persians. Instead of taking it, Africans will burn a the car.

[Old_Observer]

49 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Oh, by the way, I forgot the most important action Cabdi Illey must make during this transition period.

Cut ties to the separatists and those who are working to balkanize Somalia.

Most of the population of the Ethiopian zone might be tribal like any other ethnic Somalis, yet their biggest dream and desire is the restoration of the Somali Republic. They want their big brother back in the Horn of Africa. If you do that , definitely you will get some sympathy from the Somalis outside the Zone.

If you keep acting like a mercenary paid to dismember Somalia, then we might even collect money and try to bring you to the world war crime courts in Hague. Do not listen to mr. Old Observer who loves Somali enclaves some strategic reasons.

lol

You want kililka people to do the work for you and destroy Somaliland? That is smart if you can wing it, but I don't think so. People living in glass houses should not throw stones. Kililka has excellent relation with every bordering Somali state or republic itself. Don't play clan politics with your neighbors and they will stop playing clan politics with you is the policy for most part.

The experience between SNM and WSLF did not achieve anything, but only hard feelings and sabotages.