Prime-Minister Abiy Ahmed Visits Mogadishu

[Samafal]

I don't see anything to complain about or criticise in both leaders'speeches. 

What is important here is that Ethopia confirmed their intention to respect the sovereignty and indepence of Somalia, and the need for relationship based on mutual interest and trade is the way forward. 

[Che -Guevara]

One thing is sure Abiy is looking less and less like tool.

[Samafal]

I think the four ports that they will invest are Berbera, Bosaso, Mogadishu and Kismayo. This, I think is to quel the Somalia- UAE fall out on DP world. Expect Somalia reaching understanding with UAE in the next few weeks and months on this.

[Che -Guevara]

Introspect, I am glad Somalia stood firm on the Emirates issue.  What's lacking in Somalia is the lack of strategic goals that is not beholden to men. They should adopt a policy of non-alignment as matter of policy. 

As far as Ethiopia is concerned, emphasis is on Somali sovereignty. 

[cadnaan1]

The ports are Berbera, bosaaso, hobyo, kismaayo.

[galbeedi]

I  consider these agreements just  like  the earlier pledges or agreements with no time table to follow. You can't agree on anything with few hours of staying  at Mogadishu airport. Neither the Parliament nor the Somali people had seen one single agreements between Kenya and Somalia or with Ethiopia, it is all done under the table.

A fragmented country can't develop ports with false alliances and opportunistic countries and entities. Neither Qatar nor UAE will help Somalia. Everyone  knows that the Somali government doesn't have concrete foreign policy on these issues.

A leader must reject crumbs thrown to him like rats. $50 million here, another $80 here isn't worth of the strategic relations they  are demanding from Somalia.The typical Somali will say, " beggars can't choose what are you complaining". The gulf gives $2.5 billion to Jordan last week  for economic relieve, a billion for  Ethiopia to boost their currency, and $25 billion to Sisi of Egypt since 2013. If you decide to sell your soul to the devil, at least get something valuable.

There are reports that since the UAE left Somalia , those constant car bombs have been reduced extensively. My understanding has always been that  these explosive ordinances were prefabricated by  foreign experts. A Somali nomad in Bakaaraha market or Dayniile can't even fix a bicycle let alone assemble sophisticated bombs. Since the UAE had it's own bases and unchecked cargo's through local airports and ports, they were probably paying people to destabilize the country.

The UAE is not stupid. They know that future Somali national leadership, and  open, independent  and democratic Somalia would be always diametrically opposed to the despotism of the gulf to oppress people and deny them their future destiny.

Everyone in Somalia is assuming port development as something similar to sending rocket to the moon. In fact, Somali businessmen with genuine coordination with the Somali state could build both Boosaaso, Hobyo and Kismaayo. If you want to bring someone with deep pockets and billions to spare then bring China.

Here,  you have the Ethiopian prime minister,  hired and paid a billion dollar by UAE  , and sent to convince the man hiding in villa -Somalia who doesn't have his own  plan and vision to come on board to the latest plans hatched in Dubai. 

Abiy Ahmed might have a good vision for the region, but in this trip, he was just a delivery boy for the gulf.

There are zero trade between Somali, Ethiopia or Kenya. Borders are closed , except a one way trade which mostly brings drugs to Somalia. Mr. Farmaajo, before you trade and sell ports, pacify your country and take back the countries you lost, namely Somaliland, Jubba Land and Puntland.

 

 

[Duufaan]

Somalia has been dead for long time and in order to revive life again will take a long time. Those who maintained power, influence and controlled the economy will not see any change including foreigners.  But as mention before the time seems right for Somalia rebirth. Many small positive things are happening  in direction of full stability and prosperity. International community seems to see some positive things coming from Somalia, people are recovering the drought with Allah gift of more than enough rain. Printing money will be another big positive step.

UAE admitted for last 14 years, they provided Somalia 225 million dollars, most of money went to bribes.  Average 14 million a year.  They  only built one hospital and  they closed now.  To compare Turkey  which provided 1 billion for seven years. Average 200 million a year. The new parliament alone will cost a 100 million. While UAE disparately wants to maintain the status queue, Turkey see it is future trade in Africa which increase 600%  for last few years  with 17.5billion. In fact Istanbul is becoming the next Abu abbey for Somalis business people too with direct cargo to all Somali ports. Many Somalis business men and women are operating  and opened offices in stanbul. A win for the turkey. UAE has lost but they are going to lose even more with their current leadership. How long will they able to bomb billions of dollars for other countries to pay political support when their economy is going down.

UAE and Saudi group has lost respect in eyes of their population and in the world. The performance of Saudi and Iran teams in world cub were very revealing.  With all sections and negative media reporting, the Iran team fought hard with dignity and luckily won. The Saudi team were protesting  and gave up when the prince was watching. They promise to punish the team members instead. For Farmaajo and khayre, it is win for them to receive Abbaya in moqdisho what ever his attention is and who ever is  behind him. While watching the negative consequences of UAE policy, they have to be pragmatics to move the country forward to stability. Ethiopia is going to a transition and Somalia can get the benefit of it, this time of difficulties.  Somalis in the Somalia region will also benefit that transition this time if they get a good leadership and unity although they seems powerless with many years of bad leadership and  under pressure.

[maakhiri1]

First I am for trade, and we greatly help each other on that, BUT Ethiopia building ports for Somalia!!!, that is the biggest joke I have ever heard!, Ethiopia is a begger, very poor ,how in the world they going to help another begger! Unless Farmaajo is wasting Abby's time, he should tell him the truth, and say, thank you I will look someone else with deep pocket and serious.

But this looked more cooking Berbera deal.

 

 

[Duufaan]

13 minutes ago, maakhiri1 said:

First I am for trade, and we greatly help each other on that, BUT Ethiopia building ports for Somalia, that is the biggest joke I have ever heard, Ethiopia is a begger, very poor ,how in the world they going to help another begger! Unless Farmaajo is wasting Abby's time, he should tell him the truth, and say, thank you I will look someone else with deep pocket and serious.

But this looked more cooking Berbera deal.

 

 

It is but will not change very much the current situation at least for now. Abbaya is done his assignment and Farmaajo and his companies have to show some flexibility. They are still very weak both domestically and internationally. 

[Old_Observer]

2 hours ago, galbeedi said:

I  consider these agreements just  like  the earlier pledges or agreements with no time table to follow. You can't agree on anything with few hours of staying  at Mogadishu airport. Neither the Parliament nor the Somali people had seen one single agreements between Kenya and Somalia or with Ethiopia, it is all done under the table.

A fragmented country can't develop ports with false alliances and opportunistic countries and entities. Neither Qatar nor UAE will help Somalia. Everyone  knows that the Somali government doesn't have concrete foreign policy on these issues.

A leader must reject crumbs thrown to him like rats. $50 million here, another $80 here isn't worth of the strategic relations they  are demanding from Somalia.The typical Somali will say, " beggars can't choose what are you complaining". The gulf gives $2.5 billion to Jordan last week  for economic relieve, a billion for  Ethiopia to boost their currency, and $25 billion to Sisi of Egypt since 2013. If you decide to sell your soul to the devil, at least get something valuable.

There are reports that since the UAE left Somalia , those constant car bombs have been reduced extensively. My understanding has always been that  these explosive ordinances were prefabricated by  foreign experts. A Somali nomad in Bakaaraha market or Dayniile can't even fix a bicycle let alone assemble sophisticated bombs. Since the UAE had it's own bases and unchecked cargo's through local airports and ports, they were probably paying people to destabilize the country.

The UAE is not stupid. They know that future Somali national leadership, and  open, independent  and democratic Somalia would be always diametrically opposed to the despotism of the gulf to oppress people and deny them their future destiny.

Everyone in Somalia is assuming port development as something similar to sending rocket to the moon. In fact, Somali businessmen with genuine coordination with the Somali state could build both Boosaaso, Hobyo and Kismaayo. If you want to bring someone with deep pockets and billions to spare then bring China.

Here,  you have the Ethiopian prime minister,  hired and paid a billion dollar by UAE  , and sent to convince the man hiding in villa -Somalia who doesn't have his own  plan and vision to come on board to the latest plans hatched in Dubai. 

Abiy Ahmed might have a good vision for the region, but in this trip, he was just a delivery boy for the gulf.

There are zero trade between Somali, Ethiopia or Kenya. Borders are closed , except a one way trade which mostly brings drugs to Somalia. Mr. Farmaajo, before you trade and sell ports, pacify your country and take back the countries you lost, namely Somaliland, Jubba Land and Puntland.

 

 

This is one of your posts where I agree 100%.

The only criterion for a government in Somalia should be controlling territory. No progress in that should be thrown out. Let alone industry or big econmy a nomad cannot plan or manage life where to take herd to grassy areas, where there is no public authority or government.

And now while Somalia is in this situation the HOA is going through radical changes.

The Americans have interrupted the Chinese train of development that was fast speeding just 2 years ago now is moving very slowly.

UAE looks like have scored victory and already Turkey, Russia, China are reduced cut to size in Ethiopia

Saudi/UAE/Egypt have scored major coup in forcing Ethiopia to allow them run their Yemen war from Eritrea

Somalia is not even asked anything.

Interest of America, UAE, Saudi, Israel, Egypt, France, Britain, India made it a perfect storm in Ethiopia. Locally the Oromo, Amhara were ready (not together but does not matter). The Amhara have been praying and working for America to finally have friction with Tigray, Djibouti and Sudan and China provided them. America had started warming to Sudan, now that has been scuttled. Now all Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, Tigray can do is lay low don't stick your neck out. Do other things that do not bring you to attention of Saudi, UAE..they really are most influential in America.

What is happening in Ethiopia will not last even couple of years. Already every one is pulling in different direction. Amhara wants autonomy of regions gone fast. Oromo wants regions consolidated further to even greater autonomy. Every side wants to get things they want fast while America is engaged and iron is hot, but not so fast in Ethiopia.

 

 

PM Abiy should have visited Somalia in the very begining. Its people that matter. No matter how much galbeedi hates Ethiopia he cannot change neighborhood. It is not obvious now, but Ethiopia will pay price for this. Don't step on your neighbor when down. Fight when up and you will be satisfied of your victory your neighbor will accept defeat. But if you hurt somebody when sick will never forget it. If you punch him when healthy and standing he will forget it or will easily forgive you.

 

Again my call is get out of Mugadishu like yesterday go to Jowhar or Baidoa or any small town. Area around government will be cleared fast the locals will take care of it. Put parliament in one of these cities the locals will make sure its secured and peaceful. means you pacified and have order in two provinces. Then its competition to pacify the rest.

 

There is nothing that can be done without constitution. Anything else is waste of time. Every government every parliament since TFG days have been avoiding this question. It takes one year at the most even the slowest pace.

How come Egypt is not friend to any country that have Somali people? Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and kenya..coincidence? maybe.

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, maakhiri1 said:

First I am for trade, and we greatly help each other on that, BUT Ethiopia building ports for Somalia!!!, that is the biggest joke I have ever heard!, Ethiopia is a begger, very poor ,how in the world they going to help another begger! Unless Farmaajo is wasting Abby's time, he should tell him the truth, and say, thank you I will look someone else with deep pocket and serious.

But this looked more cooking Berbera deal.

 

 

 

For ports Somalia should focus on Kismayu and Hobyo. The only ones that have competitive advantage for Ethiopia, South Sudan. It also helps Somalia develop road works and side businesses in areas where there is no development. Lamu main competition is just strating. Maybe home for Ethiopian navy.

If Eritrean ports come online you can forget most other ports even Djibouti with all this infrastructure will struggle to keep 50%.

Ethiopia is quite capable in road work. There are companies that worked in Sudan and Uganda. They have really benefitted from Chinese know how transfer.

What Somalia can really compete with small investment is Agriculture to feed all gulf Arabas. That is big business. Every body have to eat. Food business is best. But needs peace and order.

Arab countries that used to rely only on Sudan, like Kwait are now developing farms in Ethiopia, even in Tanzania. Somalia has best location and all the ingredients except peace and order.

 

 

[Che -Guevara]

What's happening here? Observer and Galbeedi agreeing on the same things. It is Eid miracle

Ethiopia's situation is very fluid. As we speak, non-Oromo communities within Oromia continue to being targeted, in particular, Somalis. There are protests in the Somali and Harari regions. Problems in southern regions and of course, Arabs and West interference.

 

[Old_Observer]

15 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

What's happening here? Observer and Galbeedi agreeing on the same things. It is Eid miracle

 

 

In deed what a surprise. Belated Eid Mubarek and all the best.

I have to say, without sounding condescending that galbeedi was simply focused on Tigray. He did not realize the situation is 19th century all over again. Even the sequence is the same. Djibouti first, then Somaliland/Somalia issues, then Eritrea and next Somalia. Ethiopia same role as Menelik no change at all. The Somali same thing all fractured. I hope galbeedi and yourself have seen the light now. PM Abiy schedule was ultimate disrespect for the Somali people in Somalia. That was very bad schedule choice.

 

23 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Ethiopia's situation is very fluid. As we speak, non-Oromo communities within Oromia continue to being targeted, in particular, Somalis. There are protests in the Somali and Harari regions. Problems in southern regions and of course, Arabs and West interference.

It's fluid, but very clear.

The Saudi and UAE have got what they want from Ethiopia. Not to prevent them operating from Eritrea. America helped great deal with Yamamoto visits, senators, Israel and new government which they had invested a lot on. UAE is rewarding Ethiopia and the operation on Hudeidah is on the way already from Eritrea.

UAE has individual battle with Djibouti, America had battle with Djibouti which the Tigray were wrong tool since they would not accept even money to damage Djibouti. They still have enough power and influence to help Djibouti maybe through shared business in corporations. But so far UAE is ahead in a small way.

Internally the country is quite in termoil. There is an Ethnic in the south which have conflict with Oromo and they are convinced they need to have own kilil like what the Somali was able to do. They are only a zone and do not have all the tools of a kilil. The Gedeo people asked for self government in Oromo, and the answer was more than 100 killed, more than 300,000 expelled. Amhara are still being evicted from Oromo areas....

The state of Emergency was lifted to show for business and also Oromo and Amhara elites which they thought would prevent them from getting to power. They did not see its benefits which would have benefitted them more.

 

The changes in the Military and Serurity services has not affected Tigray. It has actually made the Amhara very unhappy. Samora would have retired anyway 17 years as chief of staff is a long time. He was replaced by his comrade just 50km distance their hme towns. Security Gen Adem is from Amhara kilil but they are saying he was favourite with Tigray and he is also a Moslem (They hde this but its big reason they don't like). The rest of the middle and lower is the same.

The uncknown is what will come of Eritrea. Its the primary wanted base against Iran. Its also now immediately wanted for war in Yemen. Ethiopia and Sudan are under pressure to look the other way or be friends with Eritrea.

Egypt might have been involved with the Oromo and will get some concession on schedule of GERD which is very disappointing but survivable. It is irreversible.

 

 

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

As we speak, non-Oromo communities within Oromia continue to being targeted, in particular, Somalis.

This will continue for some time to come. The Oromo want to control northern and northwestern part of Somali kilil. The trade route. The Oromo want to "kill" two birds the Somali and Hareri in one go. They are close to finding some Somali that will ally with them in the hope that they will get piece of the action.

Its a struggle conducted over small, populated and people who have loyalty to different centers. The Amhara ally with the Somali in this case solidly. The Tigray Afar Hareri of course are on Somali side. But the Oromo are big in number, very close even closer to the action than most Somali population.

This will go on until the Somali kilil can develop the region and scatter the development. If Berbera comes along, that would be a gift to balance the trade route focus and concentation. Even Khat business is big deal here. Its an economy and needs trade route. Perfect mix for conflict.

The whole camaign is focused on Liyu. The Oromo consider Liyu as greatest obstacle and hard to beat. Most Somali think that correcting and reorganizing, or any changes needed are business of the Somali. Liyu is ours. We build it, re-biuld it or even destroy it is all our business. Why should the Oromo lead campaign against Liyu? Big question.

 

[maakhiri1]

I think we over obsessed the 4 ports,, there were other points in the agreement that made a lot of sense, and it did not all come into being by just the visit, delegates work and negotiate on these, and leaders just show up and sign.

OO, Ethiopia, with road know-how, that is great. I think if Ethiopia wants to be great, they need as many ports as possible and never rely, one group, like Arabs alone,  and a great relationship with neighbors, Developing Ethiopia is a great news for SOMALIA as well. It is win-win, as long as there is no backstabbing.

Both Ethiopia and Kenya strategy has been in last 30 years to sabotage and keep week SOMALIA, now they have realized, SOMALIA on fire, negatively affects them, who is going to come to invest when your neighbor is a shithole.