Landlocked Ethiopia Plans to Build a Navy

[Old_Observer]

1 hour ago, Che -Guevara said:

Ethiopia is not powerful as people think. They just don't have any serious counterweight, a vacuum left behind by Somalia. Their economic growth is underwritten by huge Chinese loans. And despite calming of the waters, ethnic Federalism will continue to trouble Ethiopia and Oromo will continue demand more power, ownership over Addis, introduction of Aafan Oromo as a federal language, etc. Once test or you think test power, you tend to demand more

Obviously, they are better connected to world powers and have a lot of influence over Somali regions but that influence is really fragile. All it will take for Ethiopia to leave Somali affairs alone is to have a government that is SINCERE and enjoys legitimacy through consent by the public.

Yes. Ethiopia is poor, technologically backward country, but what you are missing in the federalism issue is this:

Whether Canada, India, Somalia, Ethiopia, Russia or others, chose federalism because they have big problems and federalism was better answer to those problems.

Some people say that why do the Somali people with same language, same Ethnic, same culture...need federalism. What they are missing big reason is the Somali people in written history have never been under one sultanate, one Boqor, one empire. That is crucial, is very to most important factor in governing/ruling.

In my view the notion that Ethiopia is main bottle neck for reconstituting the Republic is poorest excuse and peddled by cowardly and corrupt politicians who do not want to tell the truth, who do not want to work hard, who do not want to face risk.

 

[Che -Guevara]

Observer,

The obstacle to Somalia's revival is Somalis. That doesn't mean Ethiopia doesn't do its best to keep Somalia in perpetual conflict.

[Old_Observer]

10 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Invasion is possible but we must understand Ethiopia has or is experiencing displacement. Amharas, Tigray, Somalis and others have or being cleansed from Oromia. Similar things have happened in other at a smaller scale.

I think its temporary problem by some politicians who do not realize in the long term that if the Oromo does not have peace with neighbors let alone 30 million even 200 million is not enough to get peace by force.

Invasion is too old of an idea whose time has passed long ago.

The Somali people (95%) in the 1940s/50s had an ooportunity to come under one country, one flag, one government. The strongest country then Britain was enthusiastic about it. Yet who failed this idea was Somalis.

Failing that Britain offered Zeila to Ethiopia, Ethiopia refused thinking that the British are offering Zeila because they want to keep Eritrea. lol Stupidest assumption, most costly mistake Ethiopia did in 20th century.

As long as the east (Somali Afar) and Tigray in north have say, rest assured no force will be used against anyone for territory gain or rule other peoles. These people know the pain, wasted time, missed opportunity in their history. Are victims of that excercise.

 

[Old_Observer]

26 minutes ago, Che -Guevara said:

Observer,

The obstacle to Somalia's revival is Somalis. That doesn't mean Ethiopia doesn't do its best to keep Somalia in perpetual conflict.

Che,

This becomes the chicken or egg argument. We just have to choose one and move ON. In my view no country will ever allow any other country that threatens its existance.

As long as there are some Somalis who think the destruction of Ethiopia is our ticket to one happy Somalia, don't expect Ethiopia also will have some of them that think the opposite. Its human nature.

But as a country policy should be different than the man on the street. Why can't Somalia see Ethiopia just like Kenya or Djibouti. Try it might work. After all nothing to loose. The other way has been tried and destroyed big dreams. Try something that costs less and when achieved might be rewarding.

It would be very funny if Djibouti and Ethiopia do some arrangement that makes them work as one country, similar to EU. Sudan and Kenya see this possiblity and are trying on one hand not to miss it.

[galbeedi]

Oo

stop addressing Djibouti like your colony or twin brothers. Somalia is down doesn’t mean Djibouti can do what ever it wishes including allying with Ethiopia.

you can convince them to do many things at the moment but as soon as we rise we will fight to death to stop Ethiopia taking Djibouti.

The fat dictator may deceive those who are in Jowhar or Baidoa, but not us. I sweat that we will invade from Loyacafo and take our country back. Djibouti is missing from us just like Somali Galbeed and if it were up to me, before I start with Cabdi Illey , I would stop tCumar Ghelle to transfer our country to Ethiopia. Besides, the majority of Djiboutians are starving any way ,and the business deals are shared by oligarchs.

Do as much as you can while we are down, but Djibouti is ours and even some people in Hargeisa are saying that the Djibouti issue must be added to the Somaliweyn issue and I agree with them.

[Old_Observer]

24 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

stop addressing Djibouti like your colony or twin brothers. Somalia is down doesn’t mean Djibouti can do what ever it wishes including allying with Ethiopia.

Thank you for the laugh. You always have a lighter side to you. Ghelleh is an Ethiopian at heart(money/power).

BTW 4 senators and a congressman are in Ethiopia, Somalia is in meeting national security of governors and federal government and president, Pentagon is saying cut in half its forces in Somalia, Terrorists attacking Puntland, ...to many things to be coincidental.

25 minutes ago, galbeedi said:

Do as much as you can while we are down, but Djibouti is ours and even some people in Hargeisa are saying that the Djibouti issue must be added to the Somaliweyn issue and I agree with them.

Actually what you irridentists need to be very afraid is that Somaliland can take over the recognition of Djibouti.

That is always an option available for Somaliland. Might be even less risky less costly come to think of it. It is also in the minds of some influential businessmen in Djibouti.

That for you would be:

Loosing dropping what is in your arm pits trying to reach over the cupboard for something not sure of.

 

 

[galbeedi]

2 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Thank you for the laugh. You always have a lighter side to you. Ghelleh is an Ethiopian at heart(money/power).

OO,

We know he is Ethiopian but that doesn't mean he has free hand to transfer Djibouti to Ethiopia. For guys like you, the geopolitics of the horn might have started in 1991, but in the seventies, we fought for Djibouti to join the union but, Siyad Barre made a deal with French and allowed them to declare independent country.

Did you hear the poem:

" Xeebta Djabouti ee Soomaali laga Xaday

Mar hadaan Xagaa Tagay maxaa la igu soo xidhay.

2 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

BTW 4 senators and a congressman are in Ethiopia, Somalia is in meeting national security of governors and federal government and president, Pentagon is saying cut in half its forces in Somalia, Terrorists attacking Puntland, ...to many things to be coincidental.

Look, have  you  ever seen anywhere in the real world,  even in conflict zones of Afghanistan, Yemen,or  Rwanda , where provinces and cities discuss with the federal or central government about military issues. Only in Somalia, thanks to Ethiopia.

THe way I see , the government of Mogadishu is meeting the state of Puntland, the city of Baidoa and Kismaayo, Gamudug state and Kismaayo city after America and probably it's surrogate Ethiopia called them all for emergency situation. 

Reliable sources say that America is convinced that Al-shabaab is about to take over the country and they want status quo. The head of Nato and European command  general Curtis Scaparrotti  had demanded that the American forces in African  should be  widthrown and deployed to eastern Europe to stop the rising Russian power in Europe. 

So, they would be probably asking Ethiopia and others to take over the security of Somalia for the next three years. Bill Clinton did the same thing in 1994. Rather than withdrawal foreign forces and transfer the security to the Somali army, more foreign troops will be coming and Farmaajo will be busy appointing  judges and other loyalists while the country is being taken over by foreign forces. 

The more things change the same remain the same in Somalia.

OO,

you are right .I should not be even talking to Djibouti and others that you want to swallow.  You have dismembered me already.

"Aan ooyee Albaabka ii xidha".

Maalinba mid faras cad lagu sido ayuunbaa la inoo keenaa. 

Waxa aanu toban sano raadinaynaa, qof madaxweyne ah oo Program iyo siyaasad dalka lagu qabta wata. Maalinba mid fras cad la soo saaray ayaa la inoo keenaa.

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

9 hours ago, galbeedi said:

Only Somali political fools do not know, but Ethiopia already have six ships docked between Mombasa and Djibouti. Most of their weapons procurement is carried by their ships to Djibouti.

You are among a very rare folks that had any idea or have given it a thought before the PM spoke about doubling it. I am not sure how Somalis or Eritreans, the ones most surprised and increduleous by this issue, thought Ethiopia was running.

Most people have no clue what they are facing. Only saying such and such is enemy without a clue.

[maakhiri1]

Oo, thinks federalism is right for Somalia, because it weakens the national gov and it was a virus inroduced to Somalia by Ethiopia.

[Old_Observer]

3 hours ago, maakhiri1 said:

Oo, thinks federalism is right for Somalia, because it weakens the national gov and it was a virus inroduced to Somalia by Ethiopia.

My friend. You know from life that quarels between siblings are stronger than between friends or neighbors. Even the Americans small states war lords then could not copy the british unitary system, they went to federations, confederations, almost independent provinces.

The Somali people of HOA never lived under one rule, and the Somali people in the republic only for 30 years lived under one rule/government. Only longer than one generation not enough to have coehesive one centralized govt.

Ethiopia in 1991 survived, the only reason was federalism, self government. The Somali region itself would not have survived intact. Beleieve it or not, was the Somalis who first formally demanded it in Ethiopia.

[Old_Observer]

20 hours ago, Ducale said:

OO

.... .... "is a sociologist focusing on world historical change. His research interests include historical nomadism, the formation of the Horn of Africa region in the modern world. His intellectual background includes world-systems analysis, social theory, sociology of economic change, structures of knowledge, and the peopling of Africa".

 

20 hours ago, Ducale said:

Is this our tigaray spy? 

Ducale,

Are these professions complimentary. The first one I wish, the second one not necessary these days.