Geopolitical Change, a Rising Hegemony, and Berbera Port Deal

[Aroori]

Anadolu Agency

By Dr. Brendon Cannon and Dr. Ash Rossiter

ABU DHABI

In the Horn of Africa, the Republic of Somaliland has functioned as an independent country for close to three decades. It has held multiple elections, seen four presidents take office, prints its own money and issues its own visas, and its capital city, Hargeisa, houses two parliamentary bodies that pass and enact laws. However, it remains an unrecognized country and is viewed by the rest of the world’s states as part of the Republic of Somalia with its capital in Mogadishu.

For almost an equally lengthy time, Ethiopia has been landlocked and completely reliant on its neighbors, particularly Djibouti, for imports and exports. This occurred when Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, thereby resulting in Ethiopia’s loss of a lengthy coastline and ports. This has greatly complicated Ethiopia’s rise as a regional power and hampered the development of its 102 million people. The situation in the Horn of Africa is changing rapidly, however.

In a recent article published in Rising Powers Quarterly, we sought to demonstrate how Ethiopia and Somaliland have been able to advance their interests by taking advantage of the recent involvement of various Arab Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) in the Horn of Africa’s coastal zone. This is affecting the regional distribution of power to its advantage and reducing its dependency on Djibouti’s port for imports and exports through the refurbishment, development and use of other, regional ports: Port Sudan in Sudan, Berbera in the Somaliland region of Somalia, and Mombasa in Kenya. It is the development of the port of Berbera that has proved the most radical in terms of challenging regional power dynamics as well as international law.

Berbera Port’s importance 

From a geostrategic perspective, Ethiopia’s interest in Berbera is obvious. Of the three ports, Berbera is closest to Ethiopia proper and offers the potential of opening up the vast, albeit isolated eastern region of Ethiopia to trade, particularly in the export of livestock and agriculture. Yet because the port is located in the de-facto independent Republic of Somaliland, both Ethiopia and Somaliland have experienced difficulty in attracting investors and port operators on account of the political and legal headaches associated with doing business in Somaliland. For Somaliland, development of the port would not only bring in much needed investment and jobs, but a deal signed by Hargeisa would show tacit, albeit obvious international support for Somaliland’s independence from Mogadishu. For Ethiopia, the development and expansion of the port of Berbera fundamentally support the primary pillars of Addis Ababa’s regional policy that support its aspirations for regional hegemony and are deemed essential to its very survival and indivisibility.

The first involves maintaining Eritrea’s isolation in order to weaken it to the point that it implodes, is formally reunited to Ethiopia or becomes a pliant, client state. The second pillar rests on maintaining the status quo in post-civil war Somalia. Simply put, a weak and fractured Somalia means that Ethiopia can concentrate its attention and forces on quelling persistent internal security difficulties and continuing to isolate and pressure Eritrea. Ethiopia has, until recently, been assisted in its goals vis-à-vis Somalia as much by the international community as by internal problems within Somalia. The cross-purposes of the international community coupled with and reinforcing political instability in Somalia, particularly in the capital Mogadishu, have resulted in the inability of the Somali Federal Government (SFG) to do anything substantive about the de-facto independent Republic of Somaliland as well as the almost entirely autonomous northeastern region of Puntland.

 

Ethiopia’s efforts and Gulf Arab interest

Ethiopia has eyed the development of and access to the port of Berbera against this backdrop. However, Addis Ababa found itself unable to fully exploit opportunities to expand its influence and power -- not only because of the potential legal and political headaches of doing deals with Somaliland -- but also because of a paucity of critical resources and human capital. These deficiencies were partially alleviated with the entry of the Arab Gulf States to the region, especially the coastal zone beginning in the late 2000s in an effort to secure favorable trade and resources, as well as curtail Iran’s growing presence. However, it was the Yemen crisis that led Saudi Arabia to announce the beginning of a pan-Arab military operation to roll back the Iran-backed Houthis and restore the government. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- the two principal military members of the coalition -- initially used Djibouti as a support hub for operations in southern Yemen. Yet difficult relations with Djibouti led the UAE, in 2015, to sign a lease with Eritrea for its Hanish Islands and facilities at the port city of Assab for 30 years.

The deal with Eritrea panicked Addis Ababa, with Ethiopian leaders viewing any expansion of Eritrean power as a corresponding loss of power for Ethiopia. Ethiopia dispatched officials to Abu Dhabi to plead for a shift in focus to Somaliland’s port of Berbera. Ethiopia’s diplomatic push and offer of economic incentives in the form of export/import traffic, coinciding with an increased UAE focus on stemming the flow of weaponry into Yemen, led to Addis Ababa’s desired results when DP World signed an agreement to develop and manage Berbera Port for 30 years in May 2016.

 

Analyzing Berbera Port deal

It is unlikely that DP World would have signed the deal over Berbera if it did not see at least some long-term commercial benefit and there appear to be strong economic incentives for both Ethiopia and Somaliland. For example, Dubai will reportedly support Somaliland’s fisheries industry; help build the road between Somaliland and Ethiopia; and build a Free Zone at the Berbera port. The port will be supported mainly by the export of livestock and import of goods to both Somaliland and Ethiopia. However, there are also military and political dimensions to the tripartite agreement.

Separate to DP World’s deal, Somaliland’s government agreed to the establishment of a UAE military installation at Berbera. The base, only 90 kilometers from the shores of Yemen, is intended to help the UAE forces tighten its blockade against Yemen.

Politically, the Berbera Port deal has been groundbreaking. At the stroke of a pen, Somaliland took a massive step towards international recognition and permanent separation from Somalia. While neither Ethiopia nor the UAE have voiced recognition, the deal inked in Dubai certainly makes it seem that way if the anger in Mogadishu is any indication. Somalia Federal Government ministers have publicly challenged the right of Somaliland to enter into official agreements with any country. The Ethiopian-driven deal means that Mogadishu’s claims over the breakaway territory have weakened substantially. The deal means that Somaliland has partially broken the glass ceiling of international recognition by entering into substantive deals with viable business partners and states operating on the global stage. Mogadishu can no longer pretend it controls the government in Somaliland’s capital Hargeisa.

Regardless of the dissatisfaction in both Somaliland and Somalia surrounding the UAE’s deal with Hargeisa, Ethiopia has engineered -- largely behind the scenes -- access to another port, thus enhancing its security and strategic economic interests. The reality is that with the growth in annual volumes of Ethiopian transit cargo -- over nine million tons in 2011 -- Ethiopia has long required alternative routes for its cargo from Djibouti. With the signing of the port deal, the slowly-dying port of Berbera will see investments totaling US$442 million for the management and development of a “world-class, multi-purpose deep seaport project.” The UAE has also reportedly agreed to build a modern highway between Berbera Port and the Somaliland / Ethiopia border town of Wachale / Wajaale. This will link with the modern highway on the Ethiopian side of the border.

Additionally, when the deal was signed between DP World and Somaliland, Ethiopia ensured its substantive presence in the running and development of the port in the form of Ethiopian Shipping Lines. ESL will reportedly control 19 percent share in the deal -- almost twice as much as it initially expected to receive. This was partially confirmed later by Hussein Ige Dayr, a spokesperson for the president of Somaliland, who noted, that DP World had allocated close to one-fifth of the port’s capacity for Ethiopian shipments (JOC). Somaliland Foreign Minister Saad Ali Shire further confirmed the percentage, noting that DP World sold 14 percent of its shares to Ethiopia with the government of Somaliland selling five percent of its shares to Ethiopia.

Lastly, Ethiopia was able to engineer a formal, legally-binding agreement between the de-facto but unrecognized, independent state of Somaliland and the UAE. In doing so, Ethiopia further ensured the continuing Balkanization of Somalia and potentially paved the way for eventual de-jure, international recognition of the Republic of Somaliland.

Dr. Brendon Cannon is Assistant Professor at Khalifa University’s Institute of International and Civil Security (IICS), Abu Dhabi, UAE. Dr. Cannon’s academic specializations are in the changing balance of power in the wider Middle East region – particularly the Horn of Africa; energy politics, policy and security (GCC and Northeast Asia); and international security.

Dr. Ash Rossiter is an Assistant Professor in International Security within the Department of Humanities & Social Science at Khalifa University of Science & Technology. Dr. Rossiter’s current research lies at the intersection of technological change and global security with special regard to the utility of military force international affairs.

[Che -Guevara]

Khalifa University

[maakhiri1]

lobbying work

[Ifiye]

Unbelievable!   This is the most enlightening and unbiased article that shows the intention of Ethiopia supported and financed by the so called IC to dismember the Somali republic for good.  It also confirms Ethiopia's policy to isolate and destabilize Eritrea hoping such acts might bring an opportunity to reunite the two countries. No wonder why our Tigray spy here is frraking out because Puntland decided to disrupt the process at this time after so many years of being loyAl to the Somali project .  The question is why now and is it not too late to liberate the brotherly clans in the north?  And how will Ethiopia respond to save the "Somaliland project" .  We know Puntland clan fiefdom puts the interest of the D clan than that of the Somali state and direct confrontation with the IC and Ethiopia will no doubt end the sspecial"naasnuujin"deal they were getting so many years as a reward to leave Hargeisa alone at the expense of other southern clans.

 

Former US ambassador :Meles believed one day Eritrea and Ethiopia will reunite.

"The first involves maintaining Eritrea’s isolation in order to weaken it to the point that it implodes, is formally reunited to Ethiopia or becomes a pliant, client state. The second pillar rests on maintaining the status quo in post-civil war Somalia. Simply put, a weak and fractured Somalia means that Ethiopia can concentrate its attention and forces on quelling persistent internal security difficulties and continuing to isolate and pressure Eritrea. Ethiopia has, until recently, been assisted in its goals vis-à-vis Somalia as much by the international community as by internal problems within Somalia. The cross-purposes of the international community coupled with and reinforcing political instability in Somalia, particularly in the capital Mogadishu, have resulted in the inability of the Somali Federal Government (SFG) to do anything substantive about the de-facto independent Republic of Somaliland as well as the almost entirely autonomous northeastern region of Puntland."

Politically, the Berbera Port deal has been groundbreaking. At the stroke of a pen, Somaliland took a massive step towards international recognition and permanent separation from Somalia. While neither Ethiopia nor the UAE have voiced recognition, the deal inked in Dubai certainly makes it seem that way if the anger in Mogadishu is any indication. Somalia Federal Government ministers have publicly challenged the right of Somaliland to enter into official agreements with any country. The Ethiopian-driven deal means that Mogadishu’s claims over the breakaway have weakened substantially.

Lastly, Ethiopia was able to engineer a formal, legally-binding agreement between the de-facto but unrecognized, independent state of Somaliland and the UAE. In doing so, Ethiopia further ensured the continuing Balkanization of Somalia and potentially paved the way for eventual de-jure, international recognition. 

 

[Holac]

Very interesting article. Thanks

[Miyir]

7 hours ago, Aroori said:

Anadolu Agency

By Dr. Brendon Cannon and Dr. Ash Rossiter

ABU DHABI

 

Analyzing Berbera Port deal

Lastly, Ethiopia was able to engineer a formal, legally-binding agreement between the de-facto but unrecognized, independent state of Somaliland and the UAE. In doing so, Ethiopia further ensured the continuing Balkanization of Somalia and potentially paved the way for eventual de-jure, international recognition of the Republic of Somaliland.

Dr. Brendon Cannon is Assistant Professor at Khalifa University’s Institute of International and Civil Security (IICS), Abu Dhabi, UAE. Dr. Cannon’s academic specializations are in the changing balance of power in the wider Middle East region – particularly the Horn of Africa; energy politics, policy and security (GCC and Northeast Asia); and international security.

Dr. Ash Rossiter is an Assistant Professor in International Security within the Department of Humanities & Social Science at Khalifa University of Science & Technology. Dr. Rossiter’s current research lies at the intersection of technological change and global security with special regard to the utility of military force international affairs.

 

contradicting themselves in one sentence, The pay must a good one . the agreement nothing but a daytime robbery. 

Ethiopia and the tribal Separatist wishful thinking with moneyed but useless and directionless UAE. one thing is clear Ethiopia remains No 1 Enemy regardless our good will. next Ethiopian uprising unlike the last one Somalia should let Egyptians do their dirty work.  

[Tillamook]

3 hours ago, Miyir said:

contradicting themselves in one sentence, The pay must a good one . the agreement nothing but a daytime robbery. 

Ethiopia and the tribal Separatist wishful thinking with moneyed but useless and directionless UAE. one thing is clear Ethiopia remains No 1 Enemy regardless our good will. next Ethiopian uprising unlike the last one Somalia should let Egyptians do their dirty work.  

Expect a a defensive rebuttal from our resident Tigray troll Old Observer any minute now...🤭

[Old_Observer]

20 hours ago, Miyir said:

contradicting themselves in one sentence, The pay must a good one . the agreement nothing but a daytime robbery. 

Ethiopia and the tribal Separatist wishful thinking with moneyed but useless and directionless UAE. one thing is clear Ethiopia remains No 1 Enemy regardless our good will. next Ethiopian uprising unlike the last one Somalia should let Egyptians do their dirty work.  

Miyir,

I felt really sorry for you if you are Somali. What happened to the self confident Somali in you and you are looking for a country which has the least to none of character. You have 7 million Somalis in Ethiopia which is an asset and a blessing by any measure. First have self confidence that you can do most of things you need yourself. Then look for good friends not some one who has no dignity, self worth or self respect.

I know a lot of people in kililka that used to live in Mogadishu. They came to kililka for vacation or maybe weather is better....what do you think. They happen to be influential folks in Kililka. Look at yourself first before jumping to Ethiopia or Egypt.

If I see it from an Ethiopian stand point only you choosing Egypt as protector is best thing that can happen. Ask Eritrea who has chosen Egypt instead of Turkey for a friend.

[Old_Observer]

18 hours ago, Tillamook said:

Expect a a defensive rebuttal from our resident Tigray troll Old Observer any minute now...🤭

You still getting excited and energetic everytime you see something bad or not so good comments about Ethiopia?  Give it a rest. This camel has been over milked. But it has not given strength to anyone. Change another tool. 50 years is a long time to define yourself in terms of others.

 

Can you prognosticate what you think would happen to the Somali peole if the Xabeshi packed their bags and left the horn tomorrow. Would be completely lost, because you have been looking at everything in terms of Xabeshi. That is sad.

 

[Tillamook]

10 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

You still getting excited and energetic everytime you see something bad or not so good comments about Ethiopia?  Give it a rest. This camel has been over milked. But it has not given strength to anyone. Change another tool. 50 years is a long time to define yourself in terms of others.

 

Can you prognosticate what you think would happen to the Somali peole if the Xabeshi packed their bags and left the horn tomorrow. Would be completely lost, because you have been looking at everything in terms of Xabeshi. That is sad.

 

Lol😆😆

Don’t loose your cool OO! I know the kitchen is getting a little hot for the Tigray elites you serve,  who’ve been milking Ethiopia these past few decades.

I hear the reforms the new Oromo PM has instituted are beginning to bite with investigations and foreign assets being frozen.

Tell us what’s the lastest news from Addis and your spin on it?😀

[Miyir]

14 hours ago, Old_Observer said:

Miyir,

I felt really sorry for you if you are Somali. What happened to the self confident Somali in you and you are looking for a country which has the least to none of character. You have 7 million Somalis in Ethiopia which is an asset and a blessing by any measure. First have self confidence that you can do most of things you need yourself. Then look for good friends not some one who has no dignity, self worth or self respect.

I know a lot of people in kililka that used to live in Mogadishu. They came to kililka for vacation or maybe weather is better....what do you think. They happen to be influential folks in Kililka. Look at yourself first before jumping to Ethiopia or Egypt.

If I see it from an Ethiopian stand point only you choosing Egypt as protector is best thing that can happen. Ask Eritrea who has chosen Egypt instead of Turkey for a friend.

OO

You may not agree with me that is fine, confidence have nothing to do the  issue at hand implies a lack of comprehension on your part and inability to stay current to the topic, Ethiopia's rulers backstabbing Somalia?

Somalia foreign policy should work on achieving  a weaker Ethiopia from now on,  We don't want nor need Egyptian help, We won't stop Egypt or other countries meddling in your affairs next upraising as we have done in the past , We may as well help them hasten. 

 

7 Million Somalis living In Ethiopia can build own county free from Addis ababa. confidence? 

[Old_Observer]

13 hours ago, Miyir said:

7 Million Somalis living In Ethiopia can build own county free from Addis ababa. confidence? 

The confidence is that having totally autonomous self government

Own language, education sytem, media to raise next generation that will be even more confident of the capabilities of the Somali

Being a self governing, self managing, developing, and accumulating some wealth getting out of poverty is priority

Becoming an independent country is not.

 

 

13 hours ago, Miyir said:

Somalia foreign policy should work on achieving  a weaker Ethiopia from now on,  We don't want nor need Egyptian help, We won't stop Egypt or other countries meddling in your affairs next upraising as we have done in the past , We may as well help them hasten. 

That is the difference and thus the confidence difference. Killilka has no ill will or ill wish on anyone Somali or non Somali, region or country. The fact that you are wishing for the Egyptians to succeed in destroying Ethiopia is not healthy.

there is a general saying that is true goes like "I do not and did not do it for you". I don't know how much you realize but what ever Egypt does in Ethiopia will even be worst for Somalia. SFG knows this and every region knows this fact. Means you have not learned lessons of 70s and 80s and what Egyptians did.

[Miyir]

OO

lets not beat around the bush , you want Somalia and Ethiopia to be a good  neighbours?

for your comprehension, I will give you a little scenario

Somalia signs a deal with the renegade Killinka and a Foreign Oil company, Somalia agrees to develop her side of the country for the oil shipment and its rewarded 20%  of the oil produced, all these deals engineered behind Ethiopia's wish and blessing, is that a friendly? the  internal struggles of Somalia has nothing to do this Topic don't muddy the Topic. 

 

 

 

 

[Old_Observer]

22 hours ago, Miyir said:

OO

lets not beat around the bush , you want Somalia and Ethiopia to be a good  neighbours?

for your comprehension, I will give you a little scenario

Somalia signs a deal with the renegade Killinka and a Foreign Oil company, Somalia agrees to develop her side of the country for the oil shipment and its rewarded 20%  of the oil produced, all these deals engineered behind Ethiopia's wish and blessing, is that a friendly? the  internal struggles of Somalia has nothing to do this Topic don't muddy the Topic. 

 

 

 

 

Miyir,

As you say lets not beat around the bush.

You think/are convinced that Ethiopia wants Somaliland to separate from Somalia and be an independent country. Am I correct?