If Mr. Henry Kissinger speaks this diret and this openly about Iraq, its a foregone conclusion that a wholesale change is either planned oallready or one in the making. Jaylaani, You may be surprised what Kissinger would say about Somalia. It would be word for word what Egypt wants. He is a very good "friend" of the Egyptians. I don't think he will be as direct and as clear against TFG, but as muddy and as covered as Egypt.

Quite mild and restrained when compared to some of the bile and twaddle we read here about Ethiopia. NGONGE, Ethiopia is a changed country and changing very fast. The old arguments are just that, old arguments that refuse to die. Ethiopia's past regime supporters in Addis Ababa are more confused by the changes, let alone someone from Mugadishu. For Ethiopians now the word somali is not some far off peoples or land by the indian ocean, its sinking in that they cannot have an ethiopia without respecting and accepting all its members. The melting pot has been broken and now ethiopia is fast becoming a collection of pots. This is not always welcomed by those who keep melting pots only, wether in somalia or ethiopia. The funniest and most glaring change I saw on TV was the minister of culture and tourism, who happens to be a somali, promoting Nagash and a christian monastry for tourism. You would never have thought of seeing that picture from past ethiopia. Actually the web sites referred here are from the opposition sites to federal system and the current government of ethiopia. If you think thats mild, you can imagine then what the pro government sites would be.

Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar, Somali is ethnicity Ethiopian is citizenship Thats shouldn't be too difficult to use. Lets agree for now, until you can change it. The constitution in ethiopia is that: You convince 66.6% of the people of the said ethnic or nationality and you can do as you please with the said nationality. Pretty simple. The somali was one of the main formulators of this article. ONLF still respects that. Whats so difficult to understand that the somali ethiopian can choose to stay in the federal ethiopia. Of course we can never agree on the numbers or percentage of people supporting that, but it is no less than the Walwal conference 60 years ago. In today's ethiopia, there is no force that will keep a small(number) ethnic by force, let alone the somali. We all need to step back and think of all the possible options and reality on the ground.

In front of the ICU militias the Tigre militia will evaporate in a few weeks of battle. The strength of the Tigree militia had been the Sha'abiya commanders and special forces. However after the year 2000 the Tigre militia have been on its own albeit it might use some western 'anti-terror experts'. These 'experts' are belived to be hundreds. Oromia, Either defeat from the past or support for past regimes of ethiopia has clouded your judgement. Tigray militia is a state militia and has no busines of being in place of ethiopian army. even though per capita ethiopia has the smallest army, which according to Jane's defence is about 120,000 strong, but ethiopia today has the highest deployability bar south africa. As for your wish that the SIC will topple the ethiopian government for you, I feel sorry for you and your likes, you will be waiting there for a long time serving warlords and when somalia has its federal government and orderly rule complete, there will not be any place that welcomes or supports your likes. In ethiopia, this is the reality of the somali and you know it deep down. Only the ethiopian somali decides and chooses wether to be a self governing autonomous state in ethiopia, wether to be an independent country on his own, or wether to be a state in federal somalia. Its his choice and his choice alone to make. everybody else has to either applaude or cry. Mugadishu always has been a hindrance to the somali ethiopian. The somali ethiopian now has more friends and colleagues from Gojjam than from Mugadishu. You don't believe me, go to Addis Ababa the seat of the federal government.

Lieutenant-General Sakhar wrote: Duke the US didn't first want to cooperate with Abdullahi Yusuf, which they suspected of having his own agendas for Somalia! Almost Identical to what happened in Ethiopia 15 years agao. The US was not friendly to the Northerners which its most powerful and organized core was Tigray. The US organized so many conferences and meetings to delay the northerners marching to Addis Ababa, but everything fell apart and last minute the US befriended the current regime. The similarity is also unreal. President of TFG in somalia is from Puntland and president of TFG in ethiopia was from Tigray (none other than Meles Zenawi) Eritrea has very similar history and conditions as Somaliland. Tigray was the most organized and totally under control of the rebels, but Tigray was also for Federal sytem and not for separation. Puntland is the most organized and self governing state, and is for Federal system. Meles when he was in TFG president, if all else fails can rely on the support of his home state. President Abdullahi Yusuf is exactly the same. The US in ethiopia thought that the northerners are too far from the center of power (capital) and they will not last. The same reading in Somalia. What the US didn't count on was the power of autonomy for peoples to govern themselves. The somali is free minded and always wanting self government, wether a village a city or sub-clan or clan, whatever level he can accomodate. The US and ethiopia were always parallel, but never agreeing in Somalia. The US favoured warlords that were most opposed to Ethiopia, Kenya or Djibuti. The TFG has one characteristic the US doesn't like. Federalism. In Federalism its the states that have the power not Mugadishu or currently Baydoa. Kenya in short years is headed that way. Its a good system where the village can blame itself for failures or praise itself for success, rather than some remote far away government. The US has now run out of options. It has approached the SIC, but even the US has realized the SIC will not be able to setup a government for Somalia where the other states would accept even grudgingly. By now the US can see that there cannot be a Somalia without a formulae acceptable to those that already have self government. Yemen may have also tipped the balance.

"When did the Somali ever needed training? They were born to kill each other. Just hand them a gun and they are as deadly as a soldier can be." You may be right, but today's warfare demands that you use things more than you can clutch in the arm or hand. And the combination of somali with modern techniques will be deadly, thus continue confirming what you stated.

Caamir, Yes. I am an Ethiopian. I support the Federal syayem which has given relative peace to the country like never seen in a century and half. It has also given many previously neglected and opressed peoples the right of self government. Whereever there is confidence of self government now you see also confidence in the country as a whole. There is more respect among peoples, replacing the "elects of God" to rule ethiopia and the rest being "never to be ruling only to be ruled"LOL. There is also peace in the cultural and religious front. Moslems that were seen as second class in the past are now confident citizens and leaders in the federal government. The supporters of past regimes maybe noisy, because they were the only ones who had access to everything in the past, but the country is moving on. Children raised in the federal system, free to use their parents language and heritage are now graduating from universities that are going to 13 from just one with the old regimes. For somalis its quite easy to see the changes. All one has to do is ask how much the somali ethiopian is active and pariticipant in the federal system, in addition to having his own state that is full fledged autonomous region. The only hold up is poverty and backwardness in today's ethiopia.

me, You seem to be colliding head on with present reality. The somali ethiopian now has better chances in taking over Addis Ababa than Mugadishu. You only need to visit Addis Ababa to find out the degree of participation of the somali in politics and very importantly in commerce. He is no more looked at as foreigner as it used to be before. There is no reason for him to be a rebel the old way, he is part of the system. It was also the northerners in somalia that mainly led and promoted greater somalia, and it now seems the northerners are also busy setting up governments for their areas just like the somali ethiopian. You will have to wait a long time for there to be the old way. You must be of the old school who thinks its easier to change the whole map of east africa than it is to change the the countries as they are. If you can change Djibuti, Ethiopia and Kenya and are not any risk to the somali as people, thats the best objective to have and also attainable mostly without bloodshed. The somali in kenya is also making moves in Nairobi. That has proven so far to be easier and more profitable in terms of peace and stability and also to guarantee that the two countries will have peace, rather than the Mugadishu route.

"When cade muse was elected was their any comments from south that were nagtive the answer is NO , WHen puntland was created was their any opposition from xaamar the answer is NO , infact resident xammar seen it as positive step in somalia out of somalinimo . why cant the the south have "Maamul" , why does it bother " Puntlanders"" ______________________________________ Bambo, I am afraid you have either missed or mixed things up and totally skipped one very fundamental truth. Cade Muse was elected to govern Puntland, but the "shieks" from Mugadishu want to rule somalia, not even to govern it. They don't seem to be concerned with governing, they just want to rule. As you said if the residents of Xamar saw Cade Muse's election and administration of Puntland as positive, its admirable. Actually every somali should see the benefit of having a well organized state of Puntland which is Federalist. An example for others to follow. Only when each of the regions have self government will they be able to come to the Federal table with confidence, trust and brotherhood, and not when one state is afaraid of the next state intentions. There will be a day where all somalis will be thankful that Puntland governed itself and still waited for the rest of somalis for each to put their house in order, putting on hold a lot of staff that it could have done had it decided to forget about the rest of the country and worry only about itself.

Mr. Djibutimann, And why was your president "elected"? There was no body running against him. Ahmed_Guree, Your thinking and writing would be fit for football rather than countries and territories where history, heritage, economic interests and issues of millions of people is involved. You seem to be very disappointed and dispondent also at the prospect of Somaliland and Puntland taking ethiopian business that comes through ports. One can only assume from where you may be. There isn't that many places to consider as candidates.

I don't think the curfew has anything to do with the khat issue. This is the SICU trying to hide some military movements, foreigners and also can pick up whomever they are after without too many onlookers. Curfew is typically done for these purposes, if there is no natural or man made big disaster or health and safety risk for the people of the city. In a culture where word of mouth still counts, the curfew also slows down the speed of news travel from one part to another.

Mr. Letterman, This is third world you are talking about. Things can be made to go in any direction with the smallest of push or pull. It doesn't require a rocket scientist to put Djibuti to he-ll in a hand basket quickly. The key is not in Paris as you think. Its in Cairo. Egypt lives on the 2.2 billion cheque it gets from America every year. That cheque is not blank. In addition to keeping their border safe for Israel and keeping the Arab league paralayzed they also need to serve in the Horn.

"Djbouti is and will be part of the republic off somaliland many Djbouti sh clerics say that in the future that will happend" _________________________________ Wouldn't that be a safe short cut for everybody. Somaliland would not need anyone's recognition, because it would take Djibuti seat. The name can also stay Djibuti for some years and then change to Somaliland. There is a UN seat, AU seat Arab league which probably would be nominal already made. break Djibuti into the two halves and the Afar can join the big Afar thats in ethiopia. At this time the Afar are mainly and trategically interested in uniting their people that are in three countries and can stay in ethiopia with their own state government. The port is administered even now by a private company anyway and somaliland would not have a problem with that. Eritrea with all its sea coast and ports would remain useless for having only 3-4 million people mostly near Massawa. Ethiopia would not want eritrean ports that are prone to egyptian pressure and spying. what an idea. and is something that can happen in a bloodless way for a change in the horn. Main opposition would come from egypt and eritrea, because egypt would lose one more tool to annoy and strangle ethiopia, and eritrea in addition to egyptian service would also lose the hope of becoming ethiopia's port.

The president of Djibuti is being promoted in Mugadishu as someone who has the best wishes and interest about Somalia. Only one thing is true, the man has brilliantly played with all the rooks, bishops and of course soldiers, not only of the horn, but the major world powers. The president of Djibuti has three interests that are intertwined: 1. There shall be no competition for ethiopian business. He has succeeded in making Assab the eritrean port as barren as it can be, and the port equipment has all rusted, it requires millions and millions of dollars to bring Assab for use again, even when ethiopia and eritrea make peace. Somaliland and Puntland are also seen in this light. Somaliland and Puntland have already shown to be a threat to Djibuti and they are in the radar screen indicated by warning signs. Since Puntland has the best combination to become a hub for ethiopian airlines (by far the best airlines in the african continent), Djibuti can already see the signs that all the logistics will be easily done in Puntland from the ships to the aircraft. 2. Any disagreement or conflict with ethiopia has to be controlled, measured and limited. There is no superpower or horn african country that can save Djibuti, if ethiopia chose to follow its dismemberment. Djibuti is the easiest to dismember , just a clean break in half. Thats why as Djibuti speaks in support of ICU, but will never allow a single organization ethiopian or somali to use its land against ethiopia. Djibuti will arrest and hand over to ethiopia even persons that escaped and wanted simply to be refugees. The Afar and Tigray in ethiopia are inseparable and have been that way for a long time. 3. Kismayo and Mugadishu should never come into play as ports. There is close to 40 million people in ethiopia that would be better served by those two ports. Kenya is also offering extra benefits for south western ethiopia to use Mombassa. When the president of Djibuti complains that ethiopia is too close friend with some states in somalia there fore part of the problem, he is not concerned about Bay or Bakool. What he means is ethiopia is too friendly with Somaliland and Puntland and if this continues these two states will take all the business away from Djibuti. what do you think? The interest is obvious and clear to all. The question is can the Djibuti president rise above the economic and strategic interest of his and act as a good friend for somalia? He has more interest and benefit in somalia TFG not succeeding than anyone else.

Caamir, Thank you for bringing this informative article, but here are some of the facts on the ground that I feel are not reflected on the article. 1. The somali ethiopian has never been to this level of active participation, feeling of part of a solution in Addis Ababa, and seeing the results of that participation reflected in the federal ethiopian state. The somali is now one of the most important factors in ethiopia. He is also preferred as to be fair minded in other parts of ethiopia, being a rebel for a century and now he wants to give the federal system a try and give ethiopia to change. The results of this is very visible. The somali ethiopian is the guaranty that there will not be war the old way of greater somalia. If greater somalia is to be achieved, from here on it will only be when every part of it governs themselves, are confident in each of their areas. 2. Today's ethiopia is very different from the one east africans are so used to imagining. The northerners that are accused by the Derg, Haileslassie or Menelik followers of monopolizing power, is not true on the ground. The federal system is truly being developed and growing roots. As the article indicates most ethiopians welcome this development and most are prepared to defend it. People that had their culture, language and heritage almost driven to extinction can now revive it. All they have to do is work hard for it. The state in ethiopia today has no intention of suppressing anyone's identity and what the people hold dear. 3. Religion. The Tigray thats being accused by past ethiopian regimes followers, is home of Axum and home of Negash. They follow this to a tee. You may find past regime followers accusing Tigray of being most Islamic friendly of any regime, but it can be fairly said with certainity that the current ethiopian state doesn't have departments for either religion followers. You can readily and easily see a moslem general or chief justice (something thought impossible just few decades ago)in Addis Ababa as you can see a christian general in Somali or Afar states (These two states are with the highest percentage of moslems). There is a Sheria courts and actually it was the Sheria court chairpersons of Amahara, Tigray and Afar that spoke of the illegality of SSICC call for Jihad on ethiopia. 4. Unlike the old days the somalis have changed ethiopia and ethiopians have changed somalia. You may not hear or see this in Mugadishu and the diaspora ethiopians, but its everywhere to see for those who want to see. If you are standing in Bay and Bakool today, your first instinct would not be to consider ethiopians in a wholesale fashion as an enemy. Unlike yesteryears, now you know exactly even the cabinet ministers in Addis Ababa, its not some far off land anymore. If the TFG defence minister or army commander speaks to their counterparts in ethiopia, they both might even speak in somali, they both might say Wallahi to confirm their sincerity, the only difference would be the ethiopian might be from north or west geographically far from the somali. Things have changed in a major way, some of them fundamentally. Thats probably why yesterdays slogans do not work in both countries.