Much ado about nothing! Completely driven by local politics in both North and South. Hassan Sheikh needed to make certain provocative statements regarding the former Somali Republic's territorial integrity in order to mollify a significant opposition in his parliament tabling a destabilizing 'no-confidence' vote on his PM. Hargeisa jealously overreacts to every encroachment on its sovereignty to protect Siilaanyo's administration from the Somaliland 'right' - (which regularly accuses the administration of being soft on the connected issues of sovereignty and relations with the South). But the attempt to fan the 'potential' discord between the two communities is noted

YoniZ;955429 wrote: Mintid, It is good thing to try different options, when the tried and tested is no that good. Unless you bleive prolonged stagnation is better than change. What makes you think, Sharif would have been a better President than Hassan? I never said Sharif is a better option. I'm just pointing out an ironic, historical fact. You see, whether it's for clan, economics, or whatever else, politics is driven by interests. And thus far, it seems many Somalis are unable to predict where their long-term interests lie - as evidenced daily by current events. I've personally felt that Southern Somali politics is driven by the politics of 'personalities' rather than hard-core interests. There's always the 'person of the moment', whether it's A. Yusuf, Sh. Sharif, Hassan Sheikh, or Ahmed Madobe. The supporters of each during that time wax on and on about what an incredible leader he is and how he's the 'Savior' of the Somali race, etc. Instead of focusing on certain hard-core interests and making sure whom ever you support agrees to that blueprint with the understanding that the moment he/she deviates from that 'road', all support will be withdrawn...

It's interesting to look back on yesterday's happenings in order to gain a sense of perspective. Just last year, the same groups who so vehemently oppose Hassan Sheikh now, were the very same groups who catapulted him to power in order to prevent Sheikh Sharif from returning to Villa Somalia. I remember the impassioned speech by former PM Abdiweli, urging the voting MPs to cast their lot for the 'new blood' to give Somalia a chance! That old adage comes to mind: 'Be careful what you wish for.... You just might get it!'

^^^ The usual hubris of recent Somali leaders. One gains a temporary upper hand and then proceeds to overplay the hand. Hassan might be picking the wrong fight at the wrong time - Kenya is in transition to a new administration with a leadership under International Criminal Court investigation(the worst of times to kick them in the teeth). To damage relations with a neighboring country the Southern Somalia economy is highly dependent on is not a wisely thought out strategy on Hassan Sheikh's part. He's won a diplomatic victory in Addis..... now, he seems to be overplaying that hand....

Somali President says Kenyan Peacekeepers 'Misbehaved' Gabe Joselow May 26, 2013 ADDIS ABABA — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed has expressed concern about Kenyan peacekeepers in the Somali port city of Kismayo, as the government seeks to regain control of the region. The Somali president addressed the issue at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Speaking on the sidelines of the summit Sunday, Hassan said his government is in discussions with the African Union after peacekeepers from Kenya allegedly declined to provide security for a group of ministers visiting Kismayo earlier this month. “For us we have no complaint against Kenya, but part of the AMISOM contingent on the ground have misbehaved and they operated outside their mandate," he said. Kenyan troops who helped to liberate Kismayo from al-Shabab militants last year have since integrated into the AU peacekeeping force known as AMISOM. Despite the grievance, Hassan said he has regional support for his government’s efforts to re-establish its authority in Somalia, as the country recovers from two decades of civil war. He praised the eastern African organization known as IGAD, which includes Kenya, for providing technical assistance in state-building initiatives. “IGAD has clearly indicated its role as a supportive to the Somali government, and we are very much satisfied with that position of IGAD," he said. In particular, the regional organization is trying to help the Somali government sort out a political crisis in the Jubaland region of Somalia, which includes the port city of Kismayo. Community leaders, militia groups and other stakeholders have independently arranged to create an independent state in the region, and selected former militia leader Ahmed Madobe, who worked closely with the Kenyan military, as the region's president. “There is a group in Kismayo who make unilateral decisions by their own, they are Somalis of course, they have views, we respect their views as they see it, but one thing that is very important in Somalia, today, there is only the federal Somali government, which is wholly owned by the Somali people," said Hassan. President Hassan also said that these groups in Somalia were getting “certain signals” and had been “wrongly lead” to believe they could establish their own state. Hassan said his government has a “very clear plan” for rebuilding the country by establishing interim administrations in the regions to clear the way for eventual statehood. He said the country’s first priority is to provide security, noting that while al-Shabab has been mostly defeated, there are still areas of the country under the group’s control. http://www.voanews.com/content/somalia-president-hassan-kenya-peacekeepers-misbehaved/1668797.html

Thanks for the welcome back. The Kenyan 'Standard', today in an analysis, had this to say on the situation: ______________________________________________________________ It is understood that Kenya is counting on the new administration at Kismayu to take charge of the region and form a buffer zone before its troops, alongside the African Union (AU) forces, fade out quietly. ......................... “Just getting rid of the Al-Shabaab would have been simple, but the new challenges like stabilising Jubaland, handing over the region to a new leadership have made it impossible to tell when we are ever going to leave Somalia,” a captain in charge of one of the troops in Somalia told The Standard on Sunday in an interview at Kismayu. “We have also been delayed by the conferences that have seen the election of new leaders. Details are still sketchy but we are working with a tentative plan of moving to capture the remaining towns, especially in the Gedo region. The truth is we are not leaving this place any time in the near future if events on the ground remain this way,” the captain not authorised to speak to the media said. But it is Mogadishu’s refusal to participate in the political process, which is now at the final stages in Kismayu that is proving to be the greatest headache for President Madobe’s leaders ........................ After capturing the port city of Kismayu, seen as a major step in the fight against Kismayu, Kenyan troops, which are part of an African force in the country were expected to start an exit plan, and the success of president Madobe is seen as a critical part of this plan. Madobe, however, did not have a timeframe when he thinks his government will be able to run without external military support. “I see a day when the AMISOM will leave in peace after liberating the whole of Jubaland, but I cannot say when exactly that will be. The timeframe will depend on the progress,” he added. ........................ It has also emerged that Mogadishu could be dishing out money to elders in Kismayu, with a view to weaken the support that Madobe has on the ground. “We have seen the delegation from Mogadishu here in Kismayu at a local hotel call out individuals aside. Talking to them, we have established that some are being given some money. People are very poor here and some money can easily turn one clan against the other,” the source said. http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000084501&story_title=Kenya-diplomatic-dilemma-as-kenya-mulls-over-somalia-exit-strategy

I've written countless posts in the past 6 months warning the supporters of the Jubbaland scheme that Hassan Sheikh's greatest asset is the diplomatic clout the West has imbued him with. For a specific time, the West will back him diplomatically to see if he can make a difference in South-West Somalia. To challenge him in the diplomatic fora was a waste of political capital on the part of the Jubbaland supporters. Many laughed at this assertion as some fanciful notion yet the latest IGAD statement proved this, once again. However, Ahmed Madobe and his supporters remain in control of most of Kismayo with the backing of the Kenyan armed forces. Hassan Sheikh remains powerless to remove them by force from the area. So, the question remains, does he have enough support from Western donors to apply pressure on the Kenyans to abandon their sponsorship of Ras Kamboni? That remains to be seen... Interestingly, both Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Madobe find themselves in the same position: Two Somali leaders dependent on external forces to maintain their leadership positions!

Baashi, I did catch your theme of learning from the U.S. experience (of an evolving constitution balancing competing regional interests as well as regional vs. federal interests). However, I'm simply pointing out these same experiments of superimposing the American experience to vastly different societies was recently tried in both Iraq and Afghanistan (with the full intellectual, financial, and military might of the American empire, along with their E.U. cousins) and the results are there for all to see. ....Let alone the Somalia situation where the usual pledges of international support are made by the international community simply to be repeated without implementation at the next Somalia Conference ....(the only reason 'regional Heads of State' go to these Somalia Conferences is to, simply, get some face-time with Western leaders to discuss matters of far higher priority than the Somali portfolio). It simply doesn't work in 'tribal' societies with no history of functioning institutions backed by a solid social covenant with the 'governed'. An 'indigenous' solution is warranted, not a 'dreamy-eyed' hallucination of Jeffersonian democracy. .........your average militiaman in Somalia doesn't care whether an article in some 'intellectual' constitution has been broken or not, but rather whether the situation threatens his immediate sub-clan interests.

Thanks for posting that. What you've missed is how even the local, indigenous elders of Borama agree with the 'independence of Somaliland'. So much for the 'virtual' Awdal State holding non-ending parties in the capitals of Western countries with large Somali refugee populations................

Thanks, Saalax, for the correction. This 'roundabout' is obviously on the Ethiopian side of the border .... I hope

Well, I've tried in the past to educate some of the SOLers here that one half of Buhodle actually sits on the other side of the Ethiopian border! A fact lost on some as they engage in emotional fantasies of a new state springing up from a small town legally divided between two states. What's just as interesting is the painting of the Somaliland flag on the 'roundabout' along with the Ethiopian national and regional flags......

Gentlemen, The whole U.S. system was set up, in its fundamentals, by a landed(wealthy) elite with a high degree of education. The 'education' helped in learning from and avoiding the mistakes of the European past. The 'wealth' played a factor regarding the unique emphasis on 'property rights' in the U.S. Constitution. The 'Confederal States'(before they became the United States) were extremely wealthy even by European standards. It's simply unfair to compare most countries' experiences in constitution-making with America's, let alone illiterate, destitute Somalis with the leadership they've been blessed/cursed with since independence. Somali politics in its current form is driven by a different kind of elite......

^^ The usual attempt to sidestep the issue.... You guys should be agitating to know what's being done with the port proceeds in Bossasso. It's obviously not being used to pay gov't workers!

I've raised the alarm re:the non-payment of salaries by the Puntland administration countless times in the past few years. But many on this Forum could not see past the 'messenger' to the message.... Instability in Puntland is a threat to all neighbors, in particular to Somaliland for which Puntland served as an effective buffer (under the Faroole administration). My last 2 'alarms' were this past Feb &March regarding the salary situation..... Mintid Farayar;931029 wrote: It's actually quite elementary: If you don't pay the salaries of the security militias, there's no security. Very simple equation..... http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/70352-Armed-militia-attacks-money-remittance-company-and-kills-members-of-the-company-in-Bosaso-Puntland Mintid Farayar;919696 wrote: Odey, Rather than the usual conspiracy-minded fantasies, wouldn't it be more productive for you to put pressure on your Puntland administration to beef up the rapidly deteriorating security situation and start paying the security force salaries? It's a loss for all Somalis when civil society luminaries are killed off one by one. We've seen this similar pattern down South for the last decade. Take off the anti-Somaliland lenses for a second and recognize that Al Shabaab extremism is a threat to all of us equally! http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/69865-Somaliland-Catches-Killers-of-Garowe-Sheikh

There are 'rumors' of a cabinet reshuffle in Mogadishu sometime in the near future. Not only changes of portfolio, but an increase in the number of ministries (for purposes of widening the representation of the cabinet / clan-wise). Mind you, these are only rumors at this stage - not yet confirmed....

Oodka, Good points re:limited thinking of the West when it comes to the Somali situation. But from the Western perspective, Somalia has never been the focal point of Western interest in East Africa nor the Horn. Lately, though, it's turned into a problem that's affecting the whole region and the greater designs for that region - with its twin problems of internationally terrorism and global piracy along critical shipping lanes. Hassan Sheikh's government was anointed as the 'local solution' to the Somali problem. You can deduce this from the considerable Western political resources implemented to increase his 'diplomatic prestige'. Examples include: 1)sharing the stage with global international superstars like H. Clinton and Cameron, 2)co-hosting international conferences with major world powers, 3)receiving European foreign ministers in Mogadishu to announce the launching of 'virtual embassies' in Somalia(even though all diplomats continue to still work from Nairobi), etc., etc.

Oodweyne, You presented an interesting time frame re:the grace period Hassan Sheikh has to show positive results to his international string-pullers. While the Kismayo issue has been overhyped in the bigger scheme of things(on this Board at least), the greatest barometer of success or failure for his administration(from the EU & US perspective) will be in 1)Effective governance of the areas under the control of the Federal Government 2)Delivery of public services to those areas and most importantly, 3)the Public Finance Management of his administration - this will be key. Western donors want all funds to come through public, internationally-monitored channels. The slush funds coming from Muslim, cash-rich states which are directly distributed to Somali politicians are seen as a destabilizing factor by Western donors. Significant pressure is being exerted on these Muslim states to distribute their cash aid through the monitored channels rather than the usual disbursements to individual Somali politicians. These funds have been an issue since the Arta/Abdiqasim days - and the West has awoken to the extreme complications this brings to their Somalia plans. The initiatives of the African states (such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, etc.,) are easier to control given their own budgetary Western-donor dependence.

Actually, I pointed out 4 days before the Conference that the Kismayo issue would be avoided like the plague. The British had given out 'demarches' to all attending parties that contentious, internal Somali issues were to be specifically avoided. The sole purpose of the Conference was to streamline the various international initiatives for the sake of avoiding 1) duplication of efforts 2) external agendas at cross-purposes.

Illyria;947186 wrote: Uhuru : Xassan Sheekh waxaan ku balanay dhismaha Jubbaland Madaxweynaha Kenya Uhuru Kenyatta oo maanta hadal ka jeediyey shirkii London ayaa sheegey in shirkii Igad ee Ethiopia ay isaga iyo madaxweynaha Soomaaliya Xassan Sheekh Maxamuud ku heshiiyeen danaha muhiimka ah ee ka dhaxeeya labada wadan. Waxa uu sheegey in madaxweyne Xassan Sheekh uu ku casuumey magaalada Mombasa, kana wada hadleen dhamaan danaha ka dhaxeeya labada dal, oo ay koow ka tahay qorshaha xasilinta ee Igad, taasoo muhiimadda koowaad ay tahay dhismaha maamul goboleedyada oo ay Jubbaland koow ka tahay. Dhanka kale madaxweyne Uhuru ayaa sheegey in ay muhiim tahay in la celiyo qaxootiga tirada badan ee Soomaaliyeed ee dalkiisa jooga, balse ay tahay in si waqtiyeysan, oo nidaamsan loo celiyo. KismaayoNews.com Illyria, One of the annoying things about many Somali portals is their need to embelish the facts. ...........In support of their wishes of 'how the situation should be', rather than reporting on 'how the situation, actually, is'. Kenyatta's speech, in its entirety, does not mention the Jubba situation. The closest he comes to broaching the subject is when he stated: "The Summit agreed on specific principles on which all processes, including the ongoing efforts to set up regional administrations and stabilization efforts, will be anchored. In this regard, I call on the international community to support the efforts being undertaken by IGAD." As a matter of fact, he skirted far away from the issue in his whole speech and concentrated primarily on Kenyan's concerns of security and refugee repatriation. I suspect (like I've mentioned in other threads) this might be due to Western donor pressure on Kenya to respect the sovereignty of the Somali gov't over its territory. You can read the transcript of his speech for yourself at the Standard Media web portal below: http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/m/story.php?articleID=2000083173&story_title=Uhurus-verbatim-speech-at-the-London-Conference On another note, what happened to our dear, old Xiin. It seems this Kismayo situation has a regular tendency to bring unsteady behavior...... xiinfaniin;946913 wrote: ^^No. there is not discussion to be had with YOU carafaat, you are nothing less than a stinking fart. Now go away to the qusacbalaat from which you come from.

Wiil Cusub, Yes, it's very possible that the 'old man' is penning these articles. However, the nature of the writing 'smells' of the hands of an American PR firm. The writing style gives it away. Siilaanyo, like others who attended school with him in the UK, would have a discernable 'British' writing style while the last two articles penned in his name have a striking 'American' smell to them. From the one you posted above, I would demand a little more of a compelling story and a tighter integration of the message. But overall, a good start that clearly lays out the reasons for not attending, while soothing any ruffled British feathers...

The erroneous assumption being made here is that Siilaanyo or members of his administration are penning these articles. I would argue the opposite. This is a slick ad campaign by the recent lobbying firm recently hired to place the Somaliland storyline in an increasing array of foreign affairs-concerned publications. Looks like Xirsi Gaab's gambit is paying off. From some things I've read(Oodweyne will understand what I refer to...LOL), that fellow is extremely complex and under-estimated

Che -Guevara;947171 wrote: Oodweyne. The views on these talks is subject to interpretation. Secessionists wants to 'clarify' the relationship with Somalia and already see themselves as separate, unionists see it as reintegration. The actuality is foggy. Nuune. Vultures like weak prey. But the official communique also uses the word 'clarify',................ not the word 'reintegrate' So who's putting more emotion into it? Or maybe it's a 'secessionist' who's writing the communique for the British and Americans....

Baashi and Illyria, Thanks for clarifying those thoughts. Separately, to Baashi: You're correct... The Jubbaland initiative preceded Hassan Sheikh's administration but thanks to the Wikileaks scandal, we got access to what the U.S.(one of the key actors in this saga) thought of the whole idea. U.S. diplomats were strongly skeptical of the whole project and even pointed out(from the perspective of American diplomats writing the cables) the destabilizing clan-agenda of its key Somali boosters. The Kenyan Foreign Minister and Security Minister(the deceased Saitoti, at the time) were heavily encouraged to abandon the idea. The cables also mentioned the Ethiopian ambivalence to the whole project (fears of the region serving as a reserve ground for ONLF combatants). So what changed? The Kenyans realized that the only way to carry through the project is to present it solely as an Extremist/Al Shabaab-eradication exercise(a tactic the whole world has learned to use in order to gain American support). Once the support is gained, then to implement the Jubba project under the aegis of Kenyan/Ras Kamboni control on the ground. Good plan, thus far... The question is: will Western decision-makers for the East Africa portfolio endorse this project? Or is quiet pressure being applied on the Kenyans to slowly concede the ground to the Federal Government under the pretense of Somali sovereignty? How much leverage does a Kenya under the leadership of Kenyatta have? The BBC had this to say re:the dynamics of Kenyatta's stature in Britain: The BBC's Karen Allen says the UK had been agonising about how to invite Mr Kenyatta without losing face after warning before the election that it would have only "essential contact" with him if he was voted into power. UK officials note that Mr Kenyatta is co-operating with the court - unlike Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir. A UK foreign office spokesman said it was "right" that Kenya should be represented at the conference and that this did constitute "essential contact". http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22425869 This is an obvious allusion to the diminished stature of Kenyan leadership(in Western eyes) under the current administration. Secondly, if the Kenyans are forced to back down by Western donors, how will the supporters of Jubbaland on the ground react? Will they seek an accomodation with the Federal Gov't? I had pointed out in early March that the latest Security Council resolution(2093) which partially lifted the Somalia Arms Embargo gave Hassan Sheikh exclusive discretionary control over the entire Somali charcoal trade (an important source of revenue for the Ras Kamboni faction). That article reads: 44. Underlines its support for the President of Somalia’s task-force charged with providing solutions on the issue of charcoal in Somalia, demands that all appropriate actors cooperate in full with the task-force, and looks forward to receiving recommendations and options from the Federal Government of Somalia in this regard; Overall, it seems the international forces allied on the Federal Gov't side far outweigh the ones supporting the Jubba initiative. Granted, a grave miscalculation on either of the 2 Somali sides could upend the entire narrative...

So (Baashi and Illyria), If you both agree with me on that being the real purpose of the Conference, which I outlined for you 4 days ago, by the way.... Mintid Farayar;945698 wrote: The organizers of this Conference will attempt to sideline the Jubba issue. Not only the Jubba issue, but all internal Somali political issues. The purpose of the Conference is not to be a 'Donor Conference' as some have claimed here, but rather for the key stake-holders to streamline their various initiatives and strategies in their 'Somalia' stabilization programs. Currently, you have disjointed initiatives coming from various corners of the IC, with much duplication and actions and funding at cross-purposes. Three areas will be tackled in this Conference: 1)the Security Sector 2)improving Somalia's public finance management(PFM), and finally 3)the need to move to a unified , long-term development plan for Somalia. The sole purpose of the Conference is to coordinate the IC's various initiatives in these 3 areas. The actual 'Donor/Funding' Conference will be in Brussels in the Fall/Autumn of 2013. What's the use of trying to parse the language to see which internal Somali actor got the upper hand?

The raison d'être for this entire Conference is an attempt to marshall the different non-Somali initiatives ongoing in Somalia to fall in line behind the Anglo-American strategy for the region. Of these initiatives, there are many. There's a lot of foreign cash floating around Mogadishu(primarily coming from Muslim states flush with cash) which doesn't come through the financial monitoring mechanisms set up by the West thru the UN. There's the Kenyan-endorsed Jubba initiative which has its troublesome maritime boundary implications for the booming hydrocarbon industry in East Africa, there's Ethiopian disenchantment(the favorite surrogate of the West in the region when it comes to security issues/Al Shabaab) with diminishing military-budget support from both the EU and US.... and the list goes on..... All of these have the potential to upset and destabilize the Anglo-American blueprint for the region and Somalia