Ma anaa waalan mise Cadan baa laga heesayaa? Xiin, how quickly you forget your implication just a few days ago that Sharif was standing firm on his opposition to the Kenyan invasion due to 'consultations' on his recent trip to Turkey. That's why Turkey is an issue. Southern Nomads should learn after 5 decades plus of independence that indigenous solutions are the only panacea for the current misery. Whether it's to form 50 million Azanias or to form a suprastate encompassing the 5 pointed star, it has to be a Somali-thought, Somali-owned, Somali-applied solution.

Ok, Xiin. On one point, I have sympathy for your position - 'Destroying without an alternative being a setback'. And I wouldn't wish Al Shabaab on anyone. However, where's the forward movement? Let's forget about the moribund TFG military forces and take the AMISOM gains as widening the space for the TFG governance. But you have to govern, correct? Time and time again, the TFG has proven itself as either woefully inadequate to govern or maybe, not even interested in governing. This is the insanity of this whole TFG enterprise. You have to govern! Sometime, somewhere... The TFG carpetbaggers don't seem interested. It's not Mintid who's saying this, it's AMISOM, AU, UN, and every other partner that's had the misfortune to work with the TFG.

How's this legal fiction different from Ali Mahdi's attempt at a cross-section of carpetbaggers to form a government, or Aideed's, or Abdulqasim's, or Abdullahi Yusuf's? At least they controlled regions on their own with the exception of A. Yusuf. Do you notice the rapid footsteps of each region as they abandon any attempt of coming under the TFG umbrella and attempt to create little 'Somalilands' all over the place? To repeat, this 'legal fiction' only works for you and a fast-dwindling list of supporters. You keep repeating slogans yet present no realistic solutions to a dream you're so wedded to. You accuse others of the traitorous use of foreign troops to achieve their goals yet you cheerlead for the very entity that rides on the backs of 9,000 to 10,000 Ugandans/Burundese. As recent posts have made clear to you, I'm not alone in seeing the glaring contradictions in your logic. However, regardless of all your warts, you have a role to fulfill in the Somali exchange of ideas....

And the faithful gallery has been awoken to cover up the 'naked rear'. Waar ii qari, yaan la arkin in odeygii macawistii ka dhacdey!

xiinfaniin;755282 wrote: ^^I am not 'so wedded to it', rather I think TFG is the only entity that provides a national framework. From that angle, its purpose is tooffer starting point from which to go forward. With AMISOM securing key installations, and effectively defending it, TFG could be used a launchpad for reconciliation. Somalis need this legal fiction to go forward. The only alternative is a radical one, and I don't think it is suitable to the current political setting on the ground. It seems this "legal fiction' only works for you, using SOL as a non-scientific sample. Markaa, 'ma adaa waalan mise dadkaa waalan??' P.S. Attempt to refrain from the ego gymnastics and do try to spare us the use of the royal 'we'......

xiinfaniin;755275 wrote: ^^Trying to be reasonable , eh! Awoowe allow me to point out the fact that your Somaliland (I do it agian ) project is contingent upon foreign promises and signals for false hopes that it will one day succeed. You defend that nonsense day in and day out, and you come here preaching for reason and rationality. Somalia welcomes Turkey's help. Hopefully Turkey's commitment is beyond famine relief as it seems to be. Wallee, macawistii waad tuurtey maanta!

xiinfaniin;755270 wrote: That Kenya is not going to defeat Alshabaab is a reasonable prediction. But what is omitted is another more likely outcome which is Alshabaab will be given another life line on the expense of TFG, whose financial resource and political legitimacy will diminish as a result of the converging foreign military interventions. I see your point regarding loss of financial resources and political legitimacy for the TFG. But the question that begs to be asked: What has the TFG accomplished thus far with the financial resources and exclusive political legitimacy it's enjoyed in the past? What signs were there that it would improve its governing position with the recent AMISOM gains? All actors who deal with the TFG point out its failure and inability to govern. Even the governments that fathered it, militarily protected it, politically instructed it have abandoned it one by one in utter frustration with its dysfunctionality and kleptocracy. Why are you so wedded to it?

Waar Xiiinnow, relax and stop seeing enemies in the shadows. Somaliland is not even in the equation of the recent events down South. Reminds me of that Somali saying - 'Wixii xunba Xaawa...'. You get the drift, yaa Abwaan from Juba. This Jubba/Kismayo thing has got you really irrational. But my point is stop waiting for foreign Messiahs and learn to stand up on your own. In that way, you're no different than the opposing camp supporting the Azania project. Neither Turkey nor Kenya nor 'latest foreign interloper' has the solution. Only you, kin, and country do!

From Stratfor, the U.S. based private intelligence firm: Africa Analyst Mark Schroeder discusses the strategy behind Kenya’s incursion into Somalia to combat Islamist militia al Shaabab. Kenyan military forces are continuing their press into southern Somalia, and an estimated 4,000 Kenyan forces are converging from three vectors, from Kenya, into southern Somalia and it would appear that their intended target is the southern Somali port-town of Kismayo. Now, Kismayo is extremely notable as it is the stronghold of the transnationalist faction of the Somali jihadist group al Shabaab. The Kenyan intervention is not an original concept, even though it’s going on two weeks old. This operation harkens back a couple of years and is part of an overall regional strategy to combat and isolate the Somali jihadists. Until now, this fight has largely been led by African Union peacekeeping forces, or AMISOM, who are found predominantly in Mogadishu. But Ethiopian military forces and Ethiopian-backed militias have also had a considerable part of this counterinsurgency campaign. Now these 4,000 Kenyan military forces are not likely to be able to to defeat al Shabaab. What will likely end up being the reaction from al Shabaab is a withdrawal into a triangle of southern Somalia that al Shabaab can basically call home. This triangle is bounded by Kismayo, the city on the southern coastal region of Somalia, Baidoa in south-central and in Mogadishu, along the coast as well. Within this triangle, al Shabaab can maneuver, but with the Kenyan encroachment of the South, continued Ethiopian militia support from central Somalia and AMISOM within Mogadishu itself, territory that al Shabaab has to maneuver is becoming increasingly limited. There are likely overflight operations by U.S. and other Western forces in the region, who will be constantly engaged in trying to identify, pinpoint, isolate and remove high-value targets within the al Shabaab leadership. Particularly, those individuals such as Godane and al-Afghani. But al Shabaab is known for declining combat when it comes to a pitched battle. So, should the Kenyans approach Kismayo and fight their way through towns such as Afmadow, the al Shabaab fighters found there will likely decline combat. Al Shabaab’s strength is clearly in waging guerrilla-style warfare. The Kenyan military forces engaged in Somalia are not likely to stay there as an occupation force for the long-term, instead, to establish a robust buffer zone to then withdraw in favor of a renewed and robust Somali militia, but leaving increasingly narrow territory for al Shabaab to maneuver.

xiinfaniin;755250 wrote: ^^Well pointing out why you are not welcoming Turkey's involvement and belittling her efforts to build schools is not akin to being livid, Mintid! It is that I know you very well on these boards that gives me the advantage to expose and assign motives to the nonsense you espouse here. Turkey did a great job. And we think her influence will only grow, not diminish as you seem to wish. Saaxiib (and I use that term generously), This Kismayo thing has really gotten underneath your skin. You weren't this emotional in our past discussions of years past. The point is not about Turkey's rise or potential rise, but rather it's ability to influence events in the Horn. I'm telling you - currently Turkey is not there yet. It doesn't have the strategic depth to reach this far. Turkey (to channel their leadership's philosophy) would've probably sided with you in opposing the Kenyan invasion of a dysfunctional Muslim nation(Somalia) just like it initially opposed the NATO campaign in Libya. But just like in Libya, which is of even more geopolitical importance and proximity for Turkey than Somalia, its opposition is irrelevant. Turkey initially rejected the NATO war in Libya and was finally forced to change its position and come on board the NTC bandwagon. Alas, it was too late and the seats had already been filled by the French, British, Americans, and Qataris. (I digress here to illustrate a point, excuse me) Rhetoric is great and sells newspapers but in the end, Turkey will not be one of the main players in the Horn of Africa. Turkish finished products in the Bakara Market, though - that's a different story!

If the Kenyans capture Kismayo, who on the Somali side gets control of the local administration? Currently there are 3 militias aligned/fighting alongside the 4000 Kenyan troops - 1)Jubaland/Azania militia of Gandhi 2)Ras Kamboni of Ahmed Madobe and 3)Ahlu Sunna - sometimes aligned with the TFG. Knowing the lure of the port profits on the current leadership psyche (I mean contraband still needs to be smuggled to Kenya, right?), isn't immediate internal conflict likely? Just wondering.

xiinfaniin;755240 wrote: ^^You are a joke It is only your delusion that makes you think you are different.It is also the reason you are livid with Turkey's help. Now which one of us sounds livid?? Keep your emotions under check and argue the point. Don't lose the plot. Stay focused. Brotherly advice.

In my humble opinion, finding oil/gas would create more problems than solutions. Frankly, we are not ready yet. Our institutions are not properly developed to handle the temptations of the windfall nor the cut-throat international attention it would bring. Let's concentrate on buttressing the internal institution building. Just a thought.

^^ Rag waaweyn oo labaatan sanadood calaacalaya waa laga qurux badanyahay! Man up, and take care of your problems within the family. The Somali name has become the joke of the world due to what's been happening between that area from the Eastern border of Somaliland to the Northern border of the NFD. Walaa Turkey walaa China, they've all got their own interests. The world only respects those who manage their own fort. And that's keeping it real....

Did I prick another 'caravan' about to take off? Anyway, wishing this one better luck than the last. Carry on.

Banking on Turkey to save the day? Unfortunately, for all its all rhetoric, it's not yet even a regional power yet, let alone a global power that's able to influence the Horn (case in point: it's inability thus far to influence the Syrian situation even though that's where Turkey was assumed to have the greatest influence). Just another attempt for the Turkish 'Gulen' movement/business sect to penetrate East African markets. Saw more robust investment by this group in Kenya and Tanzania in the past few years. Penetration of under-developed and overlooked markets for Turkish products - this has been the real genius of the ruling party in Turkey (and how it's been able to deliver phenomenal economic growth in the past decade for their constituencies).

Subscription Oil & Gas Industry Journal... Not open-source, unfortunately.

DUBAI-based Zarara Oil & Gas is poised to begin exploration of one of the hottest plays in Africa, the under-explored Lamu basin transition zone on the Kenya-Somali maritime boundary where piracy is rife and the threat of abduction is rising. Original licencee Sohi Oil & Gas (SwissOil) has farmed down a 75% operating stake to Zarara, while retaining 15%, preparing the ground for a 2D seismic survey before the end of the year on transition zone L-4. This will most likely be over the old Pate-1 location where a one-well and 3D commitment looms, and later on nearby block L-13, on the Somali border. Interest in the play is intensifying as Zarara's marine acreage abuts Anadarko Petroleum's deepwater holdings, where the US mid-tier operates five licences spanning Kenya's entire offshore from the Somali to Tanzanian maritime borders and where about 3600 kilometres of 3D seismic is currently being shot. Chinese contractor BGP and Geokinetics remain front runners for the L-4 job, where a high-pressure dry gas discovery and the Dodori condensate find were logged in the 1970s, but L-13 still has significant security issues due to instability in neighbouring Somalia, said a senior Sohi executive. Last week saw an incident north of Lamu in which a British couple were attacked by Al-Shabaab militants comprising Kenyan and Somali nationals. The husband was shot dead while the wife was kidnapped and taken to Somalia. A man accused of being the prime suspect in the kidnap of the British woman and the murder of her husband days ago, has been arraigned in a Lamu court. To combat this threat, the Zarara-SwissOil alliance is in talks with Nairobi start-up Offshore Security (OSL), founded in 2010 by retired Kenyan Naval commander Major General Pastor Awitta.

Xiin's argument should not be so easily repudiated, regardless of what one might feel about the individual. I've spent the last few years working in the East African region. I would like to add a small anecdote to some of the observations about the region (East Africa). Many have commented about the real estate boom in the 'middle-market', much of it attributed to the booming Somali business community. However, there's an even bigger boom in the high-end real estate market in such capitals as Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, and Kampala. Historically these areas were inhabited by the diplomatic (particularly Western) community. However, recently, it's getting pricey even for the Embassies themselves. One might ask who's spending more than the Embassies? Well, just like in the West, it's corporate entities - in particular banking, telecom, and 'Resource Extraction' companies. The 'resource extraction' companies are currently the ones playing with the most cash when it comes to these real estate transactions. Many villas in these capitals with decrepit infrastructure fetch higher rental and sale prices than homes in the major Western cities. The 'resource' wars of Africa have finally reached East Africa...

Al Shabaab 'inconveniently' threatened the 'Lamu' project and the forthcoming $billions$ from the South Sudan oil fields - from the Kenyan perspective... This situation is making strange bedfellows!

Somalia's Puntland region backs Kenyan incursion SongChen 27 October 2011 09:34 AM Xinhua News Agency XNEWS English Copyright 2011. Xinhua News Agency. All rights reserved. MOGADISHU, Oct. 27 (Xinhua) -- Somali officials in the northeastern semi-autonomous regional state of Puntland have supported the week-long Kenyan troops involvement in Somalia to fight Islamist militants in south of the war torn country. Kenyan troops have crossed over the border with Somalia in a bid to battle with Islamist fighters of Al-Shabaab who it accuses of carrying out cross border raids into Kenya to abduct foreign tourists and aid workers. "The Government of Puntland State of Somalia supports the Kenyan military intervention in parts of southern Somalia to bolster the ongoing Somali-led military campaign aimed at dislodging Al-Shabaab terrorists from Jubba Valley regions,"an official statement from the state said. Puntland is a key part of the war-torn Somalia but has been relatively peaceful during the past two decades and has been self- governing autonomous state. The region has been a strong backer of the Somali federal government in Mogadishu. Top Somali federal officials have voiced their opposition to the Kenyan military involvement in southern border regions but some members of the Somali legislature backed the Kenyan move. Some of the leaders of the main moderate Islamist group of Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama, a Sufi militia group opposed to Al-Shabaab, have also welcomed the Kenyan move. The regional Somali state of Puntland which advocates federalism within Somalia said it does not see the Kenyan military intervention as a violation of Somali sovereignty, saying the security interest of the whole sub-region is inter-connected. "Kenya has a legitimate right to defend its own security and to provide assistance to Somalis already engaged to liberate their home regions from terrorist groups, including many foreign fighters,"the Puntland authorities'statement said citing a 2010 communiqué of the Horn of Africa regional organization, Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). 01 Xinhua News Agency

So who's really suing for peace - the Kenyans or Al Shabaab? It will become clear shortly.

Thank you for a straight answer. I disagree with you on your Al Shabaab stance and suspect you wouldn't be so quick to choose Al Shabaab over the Kenyans if you experienced even 2 days of living underneath Al Shabaab rule. Heck, the point is already proven by the thousands of Somalis voting with their feet everyday crossing the border. But we will leave that discussion for another day... As for the Kenyans, I deeply believe the kidnappings were the needed pretense for this invasion. The moving of the Kenyan Army Command Center from Nairobi to Garissa in November 2010 combined with the Wikileaks cables drove this point home. Now mind you, the Army Command Center was based in Nairobi since Kenyan Independence. The real determinant of how things will go down in the next few days will be the looming clash in Afmadow. The Kenyans started with 2 battalions with a combined manpower of 1600. Within days, they've increased it to 4000 men, along with the assisting Somali militias. Afmadow is where we will see whether Al Shabaab will fight or melt into the savanna to conduct guerrilla warfare. If the Kenyans take Afmadow(only 90km/50mi northwest of Kismayo), it will be an easier sprint to Kismayo to cut off the power/financial source. If the Kenyans get bogged down in Afmadow, they will then need to rethink their gamble. In addition the Kenyans are moving up a second force up the coast from the South(currently in the town of Oddo) towards Kismayo, attempting a double pincer movement. Military analysts say Kenyan forces certainly have the capability to continue conducting operations, but the number of Kenyan forces currently deployed is insufficient to completely eradicate al Shabaab or even to secure the areas the Kenyans have seized thus far. We shall see how this develops. But it's all part of a wider struggle much bigger than Somalis or Kenyans...

So Che, Update me since it's been a while for me. From reading your postings in the last few days, am I right to assume that you've stopped supporting the savage Al Shabaab? Secondly, from following Somali politics all these years, don't you know there's been only one politically constant position/entity since the fall of Siyad Barre? And you expect me to change on that score? That political stance is not a shifting tactic like elsewhere among our brethren - it's the 'only constant'! And you know it...

Che -Guevara;754315 wrote: loool@Mintid....I think the realization that our problems need a common and unified solution and that we face common threat despite our political difference is good start. Soon, necessity will dedicate that Somalis work together. Look at Che attempting to pull a Xiin! - Claiming a moral victory when there's none to be had. We are all Somalis, just like the Arabs are all Arabs. We can help each other, we just don't have to inhabit the same political structure, know what I mean?!? I still stand where I've always stood on that subject. But there's still hope on your end - since I see you've climbed down from your Al Shabaab supporting days. Welcome to reality on that score. Eventually, you'll learn that the achievement of 'my goals' is no threat to you but rather a strong arm to lean on in a tumultuous neighborhood. Anyway, shame on you, for making me digress from the point of this thread....