Abu S., 1- How is it morally possible to advocate for secession or a return to colonial borders on the basis of "self-determination" while ignoring the reluctance, if not strong opposition, of major local segments (including disaffected minorities in Hargeysa itself, ie Somalis outside clans)? Morality is subjective. If we take the greatest moral barometer (our faith), we should all adhere to a pan-Ummah idea of a nation-state, yet you find few Muslims (let alone Somalis) calling for the return of the Caliphate. As for the reluctance of ‘major local segments’ (or disaffected minorities), outside of a vocal diaspora, it, frankly, has shown little steam within Somaliland. Somaliland has the greatest international civil presence in the former Somalia (all types of international NGO’s), yet almost all reports on the region are unanimous in the overwhelming support for independence. This is not to negate the existence of a pro-union sentiment within Somaliland – it’s just a minority. We find the presence of this small variation from the common political will in all countries. Somaliland is attempting to build a democratic society where the rights of the minority are respected but, like all democratic societies, the majority will call the shots. 2-Why a federal, confederate or strongly devoluted system can not adress nepotism, strong state or tyranny concerns in the world of today (particularly when the vast "Southern" majority is considered as "benign")? Would advocates for total secession finally focus on adressing dispassionately, on both purely ethical and intellectual grounds, these two compelling realities? Idealism makes for great university essays, however the reality proves otherwise. The federal or confederal model has been presented as the future for the former Somalia for close to 2 decades now, but has yet to grow realistic roots on the ground. The closest to it has been the autonomous Puntland. Yet Puntland has been in a state of slow devolution for the past 6 years, starting with the loss of the Maakhir region, followed by Sool, and currently we’re seeing the Northern Galkacayo region slowly slip out of the grasp (Faroole’s call for AMISOM peacekeepers underlines this point). Additionally, the presence of a parallel mafia entity with considerable firepower and financial resources within the region, in the form of the pirates, does not auger well for this model. In contrast, Somaliland (even if it did always claim the borders of the former British Somaliland) started out with the central administration barely controlling Hargeisa. Through the years, the world has watched as this project gradually expanded governance town by town with the necessary social compacts -(the social compacts missing in Southern Somalia). Occasionally, military might was used by different Somaliland administrations followed by functioning governance. This has led to the self-sustaining (though still poor, like most African states) model we have today. In summary, the federal or confederal model has yet to materialize as a viable template. Most aspirants to that model (with the exception of Puntland) still run their administrations out of foreign hotel rooms.

Jacaylbaro;761559 wrote: Isn't the alternative already there ?? .... The 5 Somalis should be there at the moment until things change with the time. The fifth one needs to get its things together though. Carafaat;761561 wrote: JB, the Somali regions are there but there is hardly any systematic cooperation, they all seem to be pre-occupied with themselves and with foreign influences they can hardly withstand. And through some sort of cooperation on common issue's they could constructively achieve more, better results for their peoples and stand stronger. http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/60177-Redifing-Somali-pan-nationalism./page2 Carafaat, JB's answer is valid. The Somaliland way is the answer to the Somali quagmire. 60 years ago, there was an idealistic dream of uniting all the Somali-inhabited regions mostly driven by idealistic, young Somalis of various educational backgrounds (without a grasp of the geopolitical obstacles/movements occurring around them). It has failed miserably since that time. Somaliland is an attempt to return to the building blocks of the 'Shanta Somali' by first building home territory, mindful of the twin limitations of the current international system with many states opposed to Somali irredentism and the current enmity between many segments of the Somali people. The foreign states opposed to Somaliland are powerful and numerous. But let's delve into opposition within the Somalis. The overwhelming opposition comes from one segment of Somali society -without noticing the secession of Djibouti, the occupation of the NFD or Somali Galbeed. The vast majority of Somali elites, outside of this group, are indifferent to the Somaliland question. The international recognition of Somaliland is only a threat to that particular segment (who are masters at cloaking themselves in hypocritical nationalism while ignoring the far greater problems afflicting their people). Mind you, when it's useful in attempting to get international support or advocate for whatever the new political region they've recently conjured up, they are quick to point out the success of the Somaliland model (in governance, law & order, democracy, peace, etc.) as a template of the industriousness and capability of Somalis to rule themselves. Do not be fooled by these crocodile tears over Somali unity. Just look at their genocidal treatment of their fellow Somalis in the next 'tuulo' whenever they obtain the upper hand and all becomes clear to the cognizant. The bonds between Somalis are not going anywhere nor have they went anywhere. A Somali always feels kinship with another Somali when he/she has to choose between the Somali and a foreigner. No Somali is a foreigner in Hargeisa, Burco, Borama or Las Anod. The dispute is simply over which political system should be set up for Somalis - separate international states living side-by-side with common kinship bonds between them (such as the Arabs or the Anglo-Saxon world), federal states tied together under a loose federal arrangement, or the failed unitary state which led to the disaster of today. That's the crux of the political argument.

Ra'iisul wasaarihii hore ee Soomaaliya oo ka digay Ciidamada ka socda dalalka dariska ah ee galay Soomaaliya Sabti, November 26, 2011 (HOL) − Ra'iisul wasaarihii hore ee Soomaaliya Maxamed C/llaahi Farmaajo ayaa sheegay in Soomaaliya aysan dani ugu jirin in ciidammo ka socda dalalka dariska ay galaan, isagoo sheegay in taasi ay xaaladda kasii dari karto. Mudane Farmaajo ayaa hadalkan ku sheegay wareysi uu siiyay idaacadaha ku hadla afka Soomaaliga qaarkood isagoo ku sugan dalka Mareykanka, wuxuuna sheegay in ciidamada ka socda dlalaka Itoobiya iyo Kenya ay xoojin karaan awoodda Al-shabaab. "Waan ogahay in Al-shabaab ay dhibaatooyin kawaddo gudaha dalka, balse anigu waxaan u arkaan in ciidamada dalalka dariska ah ay dhibaatada sii kordhinayaan, waayo iyagu waxay eeganayaan danahooda dhinaca ammaanka, balse Soomaalida dhibaatada ayay kusii kordhinaysaa," ayuu yiri Farmaajo. Ra'iisul wasaarihii hore ee Soomaaliya oo dib ugu laabtay shaqadiisa markii heshiis awood-qaybsi oo ay dalka Uganda kusoo gaareen madaxweynaha Sheekh Shariif iyo afhayeenka baarlamaanka Shariif Xasan uu xilka uga dagay. "Al-shabaab awooddeedii hoos ayay u dhacday, waxaana qabaa in looga adkaan karo iyadoo la kala jabiyo qaar ka mid ahna heshiisyo lala galo, balse uma arko in awood ciidan lagu burburin karo," ayuu yiri Farmaajo. Ugu dambeyn, Farmaajo wuxuu ku baaqay in dowladda KMG ah ay xoojiso ciidamadeeda si ay u soo celiyaan ammaanka dalka, wuxuuna ugu baaqay inaanay ogolaan in ciidamada dalalka dariska ah ay gudaha u galaan dalka. Hadalka ra'iisul wasaarihii hore ee Soomaaliya ayaa kusoo beegmaya iyadoo ay ku jiraan gudaha dalka ciidammo ka socda dalalka Uganda iyo Itoobiya, kuwaasoo la sheegay inay gudaha dalka kula dagaalamayaan Xarakada Al-shabaab. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaliya

Ethiopia plans military mission to Somalia 25 November 2011 Reuters News © 2011 Reuters Limited * Says hopes intends mission to be brief * To join Kenya, Somalia troops fighting al Shabaab (Adds details, background) By Aaron Maasho ADDIS ABABA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Ethiopia will deploy troops inside Somalia for a "brief period" to help Somali and Kenyan forces battling Islamist militants expand their control in southern Somalia, Ethiopian officials said on Friday. A government official also acknowledged for the first time that a small force had already rolled across the border to carry out reconnaissance missions. Ethiopia had previously denied that scores of military trucks and armoured vehicles had moved in on Nov. 19 and 20. "We are looking at a brief period of time, weeks. We don't want our deployment to be used for propaganda by the extremists," the government official, who declined to be named, told Reuters after a meeting of regional leaders in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The official said Ethiopia is yet to fully deploy its troops, with the mission in its preliminary stage and only reconnaissance and liaison activities carried out so far. An Ethiopian military official confirmed the mission would be short to avoid "negative consequences". Neither official gave any details on the size or scope of the eventual deployment. Kenya's incursion into southern Somalia, now in its sixth week, to crush the rebels who control much of the south and centre of the lawless country, has been plagued by heavy rains and the militants' guerilla-tactics. A military victory, though, is unlikely to end two decades of anarchy unless the country's feuding politicians and clans want peace. Mahboub Maalim, head of the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) bloc, said Ethiopia had promised to "assist in the peace and stabilisation activities" ongoing in Somalia, during a heads of state gathering focusing on the war-torn country. MORE TROOPS The region's leaders also called on the United Nations to change the mandate of African Union (AMISOM) troops that are currently limited to operations within Mogadishu, and to boost its ceiling of 12,000 soldiers. The force -- at present comprising Ugandan and Burundian troops -- now has some 9,800 soldiers, but the African Union has requested the U.N. to authorise the deployment of 20,000. IGAD "calls on the Security Council to enhance the mandate of AMISOM and to authorise its strengthening to a level and size that is appropriate for the consolidation of peace and security in Mogadishu and south and central Somalia and other secured areas," said a statement released after the meeting. Analysts, however, say there is little appetite for Western countries to stump up more funding for an extended mission. "It's difficult to see how that could happen anytime soon given that the salaries of the soldiers are paid for by the West. There's no stomach for giving any more money to AMISOM," said a Western diplomat working in the region. The bloc also urged Somalia's weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to take advantage of recent gains and offensives and move into newly liberated areas. Experts say President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's government has done little to convince its neighbours it is capable of extending its sphere of power beyond the capital. The unelected government's legitimacy is already battered by internal power struggles and corruption. Its reliance on yet another foreign incursion might damage its credibility further if there is no swift political follow up. IGAD "urges the TFG leadership to take advantage of the expanded liberated territories and populations to foster security, enhance national reconciliation, and consolidate political and administrative control," the IGAD statement said. (Reporting by Aaron Maasho; writing by Richard Lough; editing by George Obulutsa)

Abtigiis;761270 wrote: It is pedantry, but Mintid is not even a real Somalilander. Why he hobnobs with secessionsts is baffling? Still, I respect how he communicates his opinions. But a man of his calibre should rise above clan fray. And this false "we can't join a burning house" is not good enough reason for him to prefer suffocating pants when he can wear a big Alxalaaf-99 by embracing somliweyn. Abtigiis, Someone is having a laugh... Where's the DNA test, saaxiib? Carafaat, When the 'Shantii Somali' are willing to sit down together on the issue (including Djibouti), then the process can start. I understand your point on finding other non-political issues to commune over - but some of us are rather skeptical on the repeated attempts to sink our hard-won situation through backdoor entrances such as these well-meaning, but rather naive attempts at a greater unity. Having said that, your idealism is 'respected' in my corner.

In other words, come attach your new house (where you're still putting in the piping and wiring) to 'my burning house'.....

Good for Puntland. Faroole, unlike the previous Puntland rulers, seems intent on developing the region rather than simply focused on using it as a launching pad for a seat to Mogadishu. What say you, Ngonge? That's if the Puntland press depiction of the talking points is accurate.

To go back to the question at hand: Is a Somali consensus within reach? No, not yet. The strategy of the main players on the Somali side has not changed (referring here to the Sharif, his Prime Minister, Azania, ASWJ, AS, Gedo, etc.) - a strategy of relying on the backing of outside powers to enforce one's will and power. Rather than negotiating with each other to reach a difficult, yet more solid compromise. The foreign/Western junior analyst is given this same briefing/analysis on the Somalia situation upon his/her first day on the job. Unfortunate.

Dabrow;759428 wrote: Its either one of them. But my money is on america. They have drone base in ethiopia. We're referring to the latest attack at Ceelasha Biyaha. Witnesses claimed to see the missile coming from the sea. The drones strike from the sky, usually directly overhead, giving less time to observe the arc of the missile. At the time, there was a French warship right across the water (from Task Force Atlantis, the NATO anti-piracy coalition).

The French have had a greater involvement than the Americans in the Kenyan incursion. They've provided critical logistical and intelligence support from the beginning of the operation to the Kenyan Armed Forces. The Americans are still sitting on the fence, worried about the blowback if things go south. The U.S., thus far, prefers to act through the Ugandans and Ethiopians, two militaries they hold in higher regard.

I was trying to save you all that research 2 days ago when I told you precisely the same thing.... http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/59993-Massive-explosion-sparks-exodus-from-Somali-town-Kenya-Denies-Involvement xiinfaniin;758391 wrote: ^^I agree, Qandal. This looks like typical anti terror operation Americans has been doing around that area for a while now. Mintid Farayar;758514 wrote: More likely the French warships directly off that coast currently. That's if the reports of the streaking missile across the water reportedly seen by residents is true.

Sub-sub-clan politics also play an important role in the current situation. Madobe has the support of many Kenyan Somali army officers while Gandhi is closer to the Kenyan intelligence bodies and politicians such as Defence Minister Mohamed Yusuf Haji. He also finds support from the head of the Muslim caucus in the Kenyan Parliament, Bare Aden Duale, a key Orange Democratic Movement member and a relative of the former Chief of Staff, General Mahmoud Mohamed. All are from the same sub-lineage within the clan(with the exception of Madobe who's more closely related to Hassan Turki).

Excellent steps. The professionalization of the different wings of the Armed Forces are one of the key guarantees of sovereignty!

Gaacuur;759159 wrote: Been badanaa! here is the full interview. Exactly - the problem with the anti-Somaliland factions is the lack of any objectivity when discussing the issue. It's all emotion filled with inaccurate descriptions of the situation. Everything needs to be painted in absolute terms, completely out of context - such as the minister's comments - simply to win the point. It's precisely this point that marginalizes the anti-Somaliland elements - just makes them another bickering, irrational diaspora group with little to bring to the table - according to the international community. The SSC/NSUM group is one such anti-Somaliland group. After many years, it has yet to gain relevancy among the international community when the affairs of the Somali people are being discussed. Even with the 'dual-track' policy of dealing with different Somali actors (current U.S. policy), they are not a recognized group. Even though this type of recognition does not only come from being friendly with the West - case in point, Al Shabaab, which is a recognized group of influence, regardless of its rabid anti-Westernism. This erroneous summation of this interview is another example of the falsehoods and half-truths peddled by this individual and the groups he represents.

bilan;759096 wrote: ^^^ did someone hack your account, Naaduna maxay ahayd!!! We're used to this behavior from this individual. It's how we know the debate points have run out. When all else fails, run to 'ciyaala suuq' chauvinism and name-calling.

Goldcoast, While the scale of military/political/financial/manpower involvement is not the same, there are some similarities between the two theaters - precisely because of the facts you've stated. A- the relatively powerful neighbors vis-a-vis the ailing country B- the leverage of these neighbors on different players within the ailing group C- the involvement of superpowers from different regions of the world The geopolitical significance might not be as significant (none of the competing neighbors possess nuclear arms), but it seems like a template on a smaller scale. As for Sharif being a Karzai, Karzai lately became relevant as an independent actor simply through playing the different outside forces against each other. Does Sharif have that ability? I don't know, but the performance of the last few years has not impressed. P.S. Karzai, like Sharif, has no state infrastructure/institutions beneath him - just an umbrella of supporting warlords.

xiinfaniin;759072 wrote: ^^It is known that call girls have limited vocabulary. One word that is prevalent in their lingo is the word 'hole'. No surprise you used it there Naa heedhee caawa buraanburka aad, oo odoyaasha ka dhex bax All this 'cay & aflagaado' because a young Somali said he agreed with Mintid! What levels we've sunk to! Debate the points and enough with the personal attacks. It's silly and infantile, at best. Now to reply to the canvassing of Somali diaspora groups, it could be just an attempt to calibrate the temperature of those who send the funds and whether there's a danger of those funds(or at least a significant portion) being redirected to Al Shabaab hands as before(2006-2008). It's definitely not to confer or inform those diaspora members on the strategic moves relevant parties are/will be making in the theater of operations.

Do you really think American policy makers tell the Somali diaspora what their geostrategic goals are? Now who's being naive... Stick to the coffee shops and the latest rumors, my friend!

Reading between the lines, things are not going so well for the Kenyans. The latest appeals signal disappointment with the support from the U.S. The Kenyan Ambassador to the U.N. is currently attempting to mine American concerns about Somali-American recruits in Al Shabaab to receive greater military aid/involvement from the U.S. ---------------------------------- Kenya UN envoy seeks US help on Somalia Wednesday, November 16, 2011 Kenya's UN envoy on Tuesday courted support from Washington for his country's campaign against Islamist Shebab rebels in southern Somalia. "We would love to see the international community, with the US right up there, engaging in Somalia in ways in which they have not for quite a long time," Ambassador Macharia Kamau told AFP in an interview. Kenya deployed tanks and troops to the Shebab-controlled southern Somalia on October 14 to fight the Al-Qaeda-linked rebels Nairobi blames for kidnapping foreigners and making cross-border raids. "We would like to see the US and the international community taking advantage of basically what Kenya is doing, which is putting troops on the ground, taking risks that need to be taken to achieve the goals that we all say need to be achieved, which is to bring peace and security to Somalia," he said. The ambassador was due to meet with Democratic Senator Al Franken and Democratic Representative Keith Ellison of Minnesota, a state with a vast Somali-American community that al-Shebab has tapped for recruits, and Republican Senator Mark Kirk, who has sounded the alarm over the al-Qaeda linked group. The diplomat said Shebab was training "over 40 known American citizens" in Somalia, warning that there was "a direct line" from the group "right back to American cities" that "poses a clear and present danger for Americans." "We should never forget that what's going on in Somalia, while it might appear to be far away, out in the middle of nowhere, has tentacles that stretch back to the United States," he cautioned. And he made a fresh appeal to the United States to consider imposing a blockade on the rebel-held Somali port of Kismayo to choke off the rebels' supply line, a move Washington has been reluctant to support AFP

This is all direct from Wikileaks. Like the cliche, 'Information is power'! I have no horse in the race, Zack, so don't do a Xiin with the random paranoia. Godane is another killer like all his partners, there will be no tears shed for him from this end. Perhaps your cousins can do us all a favor and take care of that threat once and for all (all Somalis would be thankful).

The U.S. as of early 2010 had major reservations about this Kenyan Jubba campaign. To begin with, U.S. military advisors were not impressed with the capability of Kenyan regular forces with which they had extensive training contact for the last decade. Below is a list of concerns presented to the Kenyan Foreign Minister from the U.S. side: 1- The undertaking could be more complicated and much more expensive than the Kenyan's forecast. 2- An incursion could trigger clan and sub-clan rivalries that could worsen matters in Lower Jubba Region. 3- If successful, a Lower Jubba entity could emerge as a rival to the TFG. 4- It was possible that Kenya could be unwittingly providing training to present or future members of the ONLF. 5- Did Kenya have a plan should their troops be defeated? 6- Was Kenya willing to persevere if their was a negative outcome? 7- What would be the domestic repercussions of a defeat? 8- What would be the Kenya's response if the TFG or if Ethiopia had a change of heart? Kenya was told to think it over and come up with a better plan. This is when the Ras Kamboni militia of Adan Madobe was brought in (this militia had far more local concerns and was more battle-hardened than the Kenyan-trained Azania militia). Senior U.S. regional policy-makers pointed to the lessons learned from the 2006 Ethiopian invasion (al-Shabaab's ability to utilize the presence of foreign boots to rally nationalistic sentiment). From all this, it's evident the U.S. claim of ignorance regarding the current Kenyan military campaign is inaccurate. (French military assets are also playing a support role)

To put an end to this silly argument, let's look at the latest communique from the SSC Foreign Relations Commission titled "Somaliland's Crimes in Erigavo". It's written by none other than Osman Hassan of NSUM fame and posted on the anti-Somaliland website, Wardheernew.com Here's the quote: "Until the secessionists took over the area, Erigavo has distinguished itself as the one place in Somalia where all its diverse clans have lived harmoniously and settled peacefully any problem that arose without the need for external intervention. All that centuries old heritage changed with the advent of the secessionist control over the area and their misguided ideological quest for clan hegemony." So the question is why is there page after page of argument over who controls Erigaabo. Both sides in conflict agree that only one side controls the whole city. What's the argument about???

Who are the actors on the periphery you're referring to? Gandhi and Madowe?

NGONGE;758612 wrote: Xiin, saaxiibo have you not noticed how confused everyone that argues with you is? Talo maxa nago wada dhacay ninyaho? Classic....

No, it's a reaction to the Iranian dimension - increasing Iranian presence in East Africa according to the Israeli military press.