I thought so, too, at first, but that's not Haji Abdi Warabe. This gentleman must be one of the elders of the Gabiley region. He has a similar henna-dyed beard and wears his 'cumaamad' in similar traditional style. He should lose the Khaleej robes, though.

A more crucial point is missed here. One has to objectively look at the current predicament regardless of where they stand on the Somaliweyn concept. The difference between Somaliland and the rest of the former Somalia is the issue of a working plebiscite (a vote by which the people of an entire country or district express an opinion for or against a proposal especially on a choice of government or ruler). In Somaliland, you have one citizen-one vote system, while in the rest of the former Somalia you have rule by political elites indirectly chosen (i.e. Puntland, TFG, etc.). In the South, the average/normal citizen does not vote nor choose who represents him/her. Since, it's well known how strongly the bulk of the citizenry in Somaliland feels about unification with Somalia, it's virtually impossible for any Somaliland politician who wishes to remain in power to entertain reunification (at least in this generation). It's very difficult for those outside Somaliland in the Somali peninsula to understand this reality given their virtual lack of experience with universal suffrage(voting rights) for the average citizen in their Somali political experience. Hence, Southern politicians assume they can approach the problem from the backdoor by opening a relationship with Somaliland political elites. No Somaliland leader had the political capital of Mohamed I. Egal(AUN), yet even he understood that contraint. That was the larger point in posting the above essay by Abdullahi Yusuf's chief of staff. Mintid Farayar;878836 wrote: 1. The President’s political base in Somaliland was so polarized towards Gooni-Usu-taag (Secession, independence) that no politician could dare to remind them of returning to Somaliweyn without risking outright ridicule and treason. I had mentioned this precise point in an earlier posting( http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/67720-The-Somaliland-Somalia-Talks-Myths-vs-Reality ) before the former Chief of Staff's essay was posted on Wardheer Mintid Farayar;873507 wrote: However, one must keep in perspective the actualities on the ground in analyzing the potential outcomes of the Somaliland/Somalia talks. To measure the fortitude and negotiating power of each side, one must look at what's at stake. Politicians, universally, are primarily concerned with keeping 'the seat'/incumbency. Would a Somaliland administration that nullified Somaliland's sovereignty realistically stay in power in Hargeisa? Would a TFG administration that dissolved the territorial unity of the old Somali Republic survive in Mogadishu? Both would be unpleasant for either administration and would face resistance from regions each administration nominally represents. But which would be the more impossible for the respective administration to survive given its seat of power (in either Hargeisa or Mogadishu)? The answer to that question provides a quick glimpse into the future of these talks...

d/p

A_Khadar;878840 wrote: Wrong time to bring such stuff... Just highlighting the difference between political posturing and 'reality'.... In the course of these diplomatic exchanges, there were two obstacles President Egal could not handle despite his known political shrewdness: 1. The President’s political base in Somaliland was so polarized towards Gooni-Usu-taag (Secession, independence) that no politician could dare to remind them of returning to Somaliweyn without risking outright ridicule and treason. The immovable object called 'Somaliland'.....

Self-Governance Options for Somaliland By Ismail Haji Warsame Oct. 08, 2012 For the sake of this argument, let us put aside any emotions regarding who is a “Somalilander”, the demographic composition or geographical boundaries of Somaliland. Let us assume that “Somaliland” is the Former British Somaliland Protectorate, which had declared unilateral secession from the Somali Republic following the Civil War and seeking international recognition as a new sovereign state in the Horn of Africa. For the moment, we are not getting ourselves into the controversies of who is for and against the secession and disappearance of colonial demarcation lines after union of July 1st. 1960. I believe that all would agree that the bottom-line for the objective of the secession is self-government for the inhabitants of that part of Somalia. If that is the case, are there any other better options to achieve the same while remaining within Somalia, but at the same time avoiding the enormous complications of unilateral attempt to break away without a national referendum, a legal separation and negotiated agreement between Somali parties? As South-Central Somalia was in chaos and had no creditable representatives to talk to, in the course of our debates on Bottom-up Approaches to restore Somalia’s State and embark upon reconstruction plans, leaders of Puntland State of Somalia approached their Somaliland counterparts in the late 1990s on working out ways, conditions and terms for a fair, united and prosperous Somalia. Multiple letters and envoys had been exchanged between the Late Leaders of Somaliland and Puntland: Mohamed Ibrahim Egal and Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed. This was done discreetly and diplomatically through mutually trusted envoys who shuttled between Garowe and Hargeisa. To spearhead and champion for a federal system of government in Somalia, Puntland State proposed to Late President Mohamed Ibrahim Egal to agree to the creation of a rotating Common Presidency between Puntland and Somaliland in which Egal assumes the leadership of the first term. Under this arrangement, each state was to retain its local public institutions in a federal fashion while mutually benefiting from all advantages each had to offer in the way of economic, political and security cooperation. A Puntland Plan (B) in that initiative was to remind President Egal that legally and technically he was the last Somali Prime Minister overthrown illegally and he had every right constitutionally to reclaim Somalia’s leadership. While maintaining Somaliland as the first federal state, he could move on to be a central leader in a Federal Republic. Puntland offered him its full support if he was to choose the second option. In the course of these diplomatic exchanges, there were two obstacles President Egal could not handle despite his known political shrewdness: 1. The President’s political base in Somaliland was so polarized towards Gooni-Usu-taag (Secession, independence) that no politician could dare to remind them of returning to Somaliweyn without risking outright ridicule and treason. This situation is still true in Hargeisa however with much less intensity (Another good reason as to why Somalis will never accept a one-city-state republic again). 2. The sticking friction (disputes) between Puntland and Somaliland on Sool, Sanaag and Cayn regions. For Puntland State of Somalia, the issue of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn was easy to resolve, i.e. holding an internationally observed referendum for the residents in those three regions to decide their own fate and respect the final outcome. Moreover, if the two states were to integrate into a federal system the political tension surrounding these regions would have disappeared immediately for all parties to benefit, particularly inhabitants of these regions, who suffered such much under these political claims and counter-claims. These negotiations finally collapsed with Egal holding a Somaliland “Constitutional Referendum” in May 31, 2001 with little or no say by the inhabitants of Sool, Sanaag and Cayn as they massively boycotted it. Deceptively, there was a last minute insertion in the questionnaire of that orchestrated referendum regarding Sool, Sanaag and Cayn approval of it as “considered” their acceptance of the “Somaliland” rule. This is a historical mistake that will haunt Hargeisa political leaders for years to come and make any “Gooni-Usu-Taag” impossible. Missed opportunities are in abundance in Somali politics as the new Somali President, H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, himself an unknown quantity and untested, suffered one this weekend by producing a new prime minister out of the blue consistent with the same fashion himself came to the Presidency. The Somali saying, Buur baa wax badan docotay, deedna dhashay jiir (a mountain has been painfully laboring for a long time and finally gave birth to a rat) is quite appropriate in this context. While I do not harbor any bias whatsoever against the appointment of the new Prime Minister, this selection does not sound the right choice to unite a country already in de facto decentralization bordering on a dangerous fragmentation. It is also an ominous sign for the federal political arrangement agreed upon and enshrined in the Provisional Constitution (See Public Trust Deficit in Somalia). Let us hope for those missed opportunities to present themselves again for leaders to seize in the best interests of their people and Somalia. By Ismail Haji Warsame, E-Mail: ismailwarsame@gmail.com ____ The author is the former Puntland Presidency Chief of Staff and long-time participant of most Somali National Reconciliation Process since 1995. He lives in Toronto, Canada

Turkey wishes to train the Somali security sector (this has faced strong resistance from key international stakeholders in the Somali Contact Group). The latest ICG report on Turkey-Somalia relations sheds some light on this disagreement: Turkey wants to train the Somali military, and apparently the U.S. and Ethiopia are not happy about this. Crisis Group interview, senior diplomat, Brussels, 11 May 2012. AMISOM also maintains it wants to lead on security sector reform. Crisis Group interview, Nairobi, 7 August 2012.

Abtigiis;877429 wrote: A sad say. Another missed opportunity for Somalia. President Hassan not anymore a national leader but the head of benadir and central regions. Why so glum?? What's wrong with the pick for those of us not familiar with the individual named?

Baashi, This is another example of how Somali jockeying for local political gains can have detrimental effects. The involvement of Erik Prince(an avowed anti-Muslim American multi-millionaire of Blackwater fame who contributed greatly to the current mayhem in both Iraq and Afghanistan) and Afrikaners(South Africans of Dutch descent, the core constituency behind apartheid) is worrisome. Both have a less than stellar past in the Muslim world and black Africa (respectively). Also, alarming (in my humble perspective) is the Somali tendency to uphold the monarchies of the Arab Gulf as role models of governance and advancement (i.e. the continuous Somali admiration of Dubai and its surrounding Emirates for their infrastructure development, based upon trickle down oil revenues). Unfortunately, in a globally interconnected world, the under-educated, under-exposed Somalis will increasingly face these types of problems . Lastly, this problem I've described above is not unique to Puntland in the Somali peninsula. Thirty plus years of civil war has negatively affected the past Somali trait of proud, bordering on xenophobia, leadership...

It's interesting this story received so little review in this Forum. Unfortunately, we can't see the forest from the tree! The whole Kenyan operation was stage managed at every step by larger powers. As any analyst of the region knows, the Kenyan security forces do not have the capacity to conduct pinpoint artillery and air strikes. Many of the airstrikes are conducted by non-Kenyan militaries and then attributed to the Kenyan airforce. Very similar to the airstrikes of Yemen. This level of military and intelligence capacity just doesn't exist locally in the region. XX, the Iranian presence in the region is real (although not connected to Al Shabaab) as well as the close security cooperation between Israel and Kenya. The Israeli press has actively covered this in the last 2 years. As for the U.S. and France, it's simply prepositioning for the rapidly growing hydrocarbon reserves of the East African region. The insecurity of an Al Shabaab presence(as well as Somali piracy) in the region brings hesitancy to wider investment by the Western multinational oil companies. Always follow the money....

And it begins....

Mintid Farayar;873507 wrote: These range in contrast from the Egyptian obsession with recreating a militaristic, unitary Somali state used as a pressure point to prevent Ethiopia from implementing its NIle dam projects to UN agencies losing their control of significant portions of the 'defacto' Somali national budget. Not to be outdone by the likes of the Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, and Turkey, Egypt makes another attempt to enter the new 'Somalia game'. As mentioned previously in my post, Egypt is, primarily, concerned with creating a strong, militaristic bulwark against Ethiopia. ---------------------------------------- Morsy offers to train Somali army Hend Kortam / September 27, 2012 President Mohamed Morsy said Egypt could train the Somali army and coast guards in a speech at a United Nations summit on Somalia, Wednesday. Morsy asserted Egypt’s “full support for Somalia in all fields and its continuous contribution towards human development.” He added Egypt is willing to train members of the Somali army, as well as coast guards, and welcomes “concerned international parties to participate in this.” Morsy said the war-torn country faced many challenges, including regaining territory from extremist groups, so regional and international players should show support for the Somali government and people. The reason behind the conflict in Somalia, according to Egypt’s premier, was a profound misunderstanding of the teachings of Islam, with people choosing extremism and militancy over tolerance. He added you cannot fight extremism through force; you have to counter it by spreading the real teachings of Islam. Morsy expressed his appreciation for efforts made by the African Union’s mission in Somalia (AMISOM). AMISOM and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia have been working together to regain territories seized by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab militants. The TFG’s mandate ended in August, following which, the first permanent federal government in Somalia since 1991 was set up and a new president elected. http://dailynewsegypt.com/2012/09/27/morsy-offers-to-train-somali-army/

GaadhHaye;875326 wrote: ^^^^^ No sir the traitors and mercenaries are irrelevant. The Somalis in SSC are united to stay Somalis whatever the cost is….. Now you're just being emotional! The argument has never been who's Somali and who's not (that's merely an ethnicity, like being Arab, or Anglo-Saxon). The argument remains under what political constructs will Somalis live. After all, no one questions the Somali-ness of Djibouti Somalis who live under a separate sovereign government. I realize this issue might be close to heart for you, but do try to argue from reason rather than blind emotion. Who knows, you might change some minds....

What's obvious from both story-lines is how divided the 'Khaatumo' constituency remains to the present day. 'Khaatumo' seems yet another project concocted by ambitious individuals within the subclan to use as a bargaining chip elsewhere (in this particular case, a bargaining chip for the new seats in Mogadishu).

Tillamook;875318 wrote: A Puntlander will be announced to be the Prime Minister. That's a possibility but do share the reasons why you believe so strongly in that outcome. Also, my mistake earlier, Goldogob is a Puntland region so that choice would qualify as a Puntlander.

AUN. So savage - to not even allow for the removal of the dead. Insha'Allah, Kismayo will see the eradication of Al Shabaab. But like I've commented on before, Al Shabaab gets its support in all Somali-inhabited areas by playing on the grievances of clans/subclans that feel sidelined/mistreated. Big security headaches for Somaliland and Puntland as fleeing Al Shabaab leadership and foot soldiers enter those areas... Insha'Allah, kheyr...

Yes, Duke. That's what most of us have heard (that the new President leans towards the non-Puntland subclans for the PM position - in particular the 3 subclans hailing from Gedo, Sool, and Goldogob). However, Clinton's reference to "the new Prime Minister" leaves one wondering if this is correct. Abdiweli speaks well in interviews and provides a calm, reasonable public face for outside consumption but faces the corruption issue raised by the UN Report. Anyway, we'll see the outcome in a few days time...

We are such buffoons! The real resources Somalis have are their human resources. Forget about silly fantasies of oil sheikhs and other forms of extraction industries. If proven true, those would be a curse in the present Somali condition. What do you think Somalis would do to each other if this wealth was found while the wounds of a 30+ year civil war are still fresh(and continuing)??

Clinton At U.N. Secretary-General's Summit On Somalia [document] 583 words 28 September 2012English Sep 28, 2012 -- U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE Office of the Spokesperson September 26, 2012 REMARKS Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton At a UN Secretary General Summit on Somalia September 26, 2012 United Nations New York, New York SECRETARY CLINTON: Thank you very much, Under Secretary General. And let me join in congratulating both the new President and the new Prime Minister. We very much appreciated the President's statement outlining your government's six objectives, and we stand ready to assist you in fulfilling them. I also want to thank former-President Sheikh Sharif for a smooth and peaceful transition, the first in decades for the Somali people. Let me make three areas of emphasis that deserve our attention quickly. First, we have to continue improving security. The United States has strongly supported AMISOM and the Somali National forces, and we will work closely with the new government as it takes more of a leading role. We will maintain our support for the security sector and focus on sustainable and comprehensive reform. As more areas are liberated from al-Shabaab, the government will need to establish police forces and courts. And we view the Joint Security Committee as a promising mechanism for coordinating efforts between the Somali Government and international partners. Second, stabilization efforts must continue across the country. Although there has been encouraging progress so far under the National Stabilization Plan, more than 2 million people in Somalia still need lifesaving humanitarian assistance. Many more face hunger and malnutrition and can't get basic services, such as clean water and adequate electricity. And the former combatants, who are defecting from al-Shabaab will need to be reintegrated into local communities. In addition, we have to continue to keep focus on the refugee population. Kenya has been extremely generous in sponsoring hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees, and we have to continue to work overtime to relocate those refugees back in their homes. So meeting these challenges will require the government to work with local communities as well as the international efforts to really focus, especially on southern and central Somalia, and that will give us a chance to try to provide enough stability for the government to get about its business. And finally, with respect to the government, transparency and accountability must be required. We urge the new government to appoint a cabinet of people who will work to promote the interests of the Somali people and respond to their needs and maintain the confidence of international donors so future collaboration can continue. So we look to the government to build transparent and accountable institutions. Now, what's been accomplished in Somalia - and I remember being in this room and other rooms over the last four UNGAS and hearing a lot of despair about whether or not there could be a positive outcome. But what has been accomplished has exceeded what many thought was possible. And it's taken a lot of hard work and a lot of sacrifice, first and foremost from the people of Somalia. But many of the international representatives around this table have also been extraordinarily generous and committed. So now we have to help in the next phase for the people of Somali, and we look forward, on behalf of the United States, to doing everything we can to make it a success.

General Duke;874707 wrote: Ugu dammbeyn, madaxweynaha Soomaaliya wuxuu ka dalbaday beesha caalamka in gargaarka ay Soomaaliya ugu talogaleen uu noqdo mid toos ah oo aan lasoo marin hay'ado kale, isagoo sheegay in Soomaaliya ay iyadu awooddo in dhaqalaaha loogu talogalay ay maamulato. The key point of most relevance to any administration in Somalia. This is where the interests of the international actors and the Somali Federal Government clash. Those Somalia Monitoring Group reports have done their damage over the years. No one trusts Somalis with bilateral funding.

Timur;874423 wrote: My belief has been that Abdiweli and Hassan made a pact for Pres/PM ticket either the day before the election, or perhaps much longer in advance - what's clear is that Hassan had outside sponsorship well in advance of the elections, and Abdiweli is the last remaining figurehead in the former TFG. I think appointing Abdiweli as premier too soon would've sounded too many alarms among conspiracy theorists and political rivals, so delaying the appointment process for prime minister by several weeks was a move by Hassan to allow Abdiweli to continue working, eventually easing the load of announcing him as premier since he's become synonymous with the position. Another thought; why would Abdiweli be sent to promote all of these crucial ties in New York when he'll be leaving the post in a few days? It's only logical for him to continue working on these relationships that he's opened. That's an interesting theory, Timur. The new constitution/charter states the previous cabinet and PM will continue the work of the government till a new PM and cabinet are appointed&approved to replace them. So legally, Abdiweli is continuing his constitutional mandate. However, your theory does have some plausibility given Abdiweli's concession speech during the elections and the several public photos/videos of the conference between him, Hassan Sh. Mohamoud, & Ahmed I. Samater. Maybe, you're right, maybe Abdiweli will continue as PM, and to further complete the plot, Ahmed I. Samater will be the new Foreign Minister. But this is only pure speculation on my part with no tangible evidence behind it. We'll see how the plot develops.

Taleexi, I understand your sentiments and your vantage point. While I do not agree with all you've stated, I respect your right to feel thus. However, the purpose was not to rehash the pro vs. anti-Somaliland talking points but rather to illuminate how the talks were mandated by the 'international community'. Secondly, to refute the premise often stated on these boards that this was a Somali-driven initiative. Rather, it was externally driven 'diplomatic pressure' that brought both parties to the talks. The final point was to point out the intriguing choice of words by the new President in Mogadishu in how his administration will handle future talks. Also, not mentioned in my post, is the reality that these talks have fallen exclusively under the purview of the TFG Presidency rather than the Prime Minister's office and are expected to continue in that tradition. Finally, we must remember that the draft statement drafted by the 'international community' in London clearly stated: "The Conference recognised the need for the international community to support any dialogue that Somaliland and the TFG or its replacement may agree to establish in order to clarify their future relations. In diplomacy, the choice of words is critical! The above statement takes no prejudicial position on the question of sovereignty, as much as others attempt to dress up the situation to their 'tinted' viewpoint. This is where the situation stands at present - I was merely pointing it out in the midst of deafening misinformation....

xiinfaniin;873837 wrote: So the question remains: How is it possible for those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction and the implementation dates of their political actions (the world's only officially declared failed state) to be in a position to decide on the fate of Somaliland? This supposition is simply a concoction held in the egos of a frustrated diaspora. You wouldn't ask this question, had you known that your entity is amongst ' those who are not even allowed to determine their own political direction ' . . And that simple fact, my friend, makes your differentiation between Somalia and Somaliland an attempt of a distinction without a real difference. Your point being that both the TFG and Somaliland are in the same predicament of 'having little say or influence on sovereign Somali affairs'? Did I paraphrase your argument correctly?

Abwaan;873758 wrote: Mintid gabadha shrika joogta maxaa ka rabtaa adigu? Let's not twist this into something it is not. This is a political discussion forum: hence I'm commenting on the optics of presenting a sub-clan shop as national leadership. These actions telegraph an insecurity based upon fear - a fear of having other Somalis within the inner circle. It harkens back to A. Yusuf and his Ambassadorial appointments. In his defense, it's not unique to Abdiweli only - many suffer from it.

General Duke;873735 wrote: What amazes me is that you know everyone from Abdiweli's clan. Thats a talent and I am touched by your concern for the Columbia Law Graduate..She will get a job no doubt. Is deji, saaxiib. I'm just pointing out indisputable facts. It doesn't look good for P.R. purposes - politically speaking.... But then sometimes, it's difficult to learn new tricks!

Naw! Xataa yartii tolka shaqo buu u dhiibey! Show reerku ma kala hadho...