If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.....

QansaxMeygaag;911068 wrote: The Kenyan elections aren't going to change much because if Raila Odinga wins, he is part of the current coalition government as the Prime Minister and will continue the same way. If Uhuru Kenyatta wins, he will follow in Kibaki's footsteps since he is largely seen as a Kibaki project anyway and was crucial in Kibaki's win in 2007 by stepping down in Kibaki;s favour. So don't count on a Kenya policy change. The only time that will happen is if Uhuru wins and reer galbeedka turn off the money taps that is sustaining KDF becuase reer galbeed have made it clear they don;t want to work with the main because of the charges facing him and Willian Ruto, his running mate, at the ICC. My reference was not to any expected changes in Kenyan philosophies after the elections, but rather in reference to Western reluctance to pressure the Kenyan gov't to abandon Madobe at this delicate time for Kenya. For you see, the Jubba operation was the first external power projection by the Kenyan military and state since independence. This policy has both its supporters and detractors within the Kenyan power elite. Post-election is when pressure will be applied on the Kenyans regarding their Jubba initiative.

Oodweyne;911064 wrote: ^^^ Mintid , If you have in mind our neighbors to the east in pirateland, I think you could say their game is truly and irrevocably over. For, they have bet the farm that at best they will always get the Prime-Minister role. And when that failed, they thought, that so much of noise and den of endless racket about how Mugadishu is not playing fair with the Federal system, could get some powers. Particularly, the US or failing then at least the EU. And therefore their hope was that collectively these powers will buy their argument against Mugadishu. But, sadly, when no one came on board for their little "jig" of political mischief-making, then they seemed to have realized that they have no alternative other than to hope that the current government in Mugadishu will not be getting any money. But even in here, yet again, that has been found to be another mirage for them, since, the Islamist-inclined states in the Gulf Arabia and in Turkey in particularly will always fund the government of Hassan Sheikh for their own ideological reasons. Furthermore, what is also worse for them in here, is that even US have also decided to side with Mugadishu with that diplomatic recognition, as well as saying that the federal issue is for Somalia to resolve. All in all, one can say that although we in Somaliland are of course not a great shake in here, since our foreign policy is bit of a naive side, but still, in pirate-land, they are essentially in that horrible place of seeing their goose been cooked by others. And furthermore, all they can do is to hope that left-overs of their goose itself will be what they will finally share with the any strayed cats that come to feed on the left-overs after the dinner of the day is finished and it is been had by a men of "political consequences" that are found in Mugadishu's environment. Hence, it unenviable position to found oneself in here, I tell you, my friend. Which means, Iman Faroole really has no other trick to turn to other than to scream himself to sleep in most night.. Faroole, for all intents and purposes, has been a responsible neighbor from the SL perspective. He's been highly effective in sidelining elements within his community who have a far more hard-line position towards SL. He's divorced his administration from the warmongers among the Sool community who aim to create a new war between Somaliland and Puntland, leaving them in the political wilderness(in Mogadishu hotels, dependent on the dwindling financial handouts from a radicalized diaspora while being ignored by their local hosts). Outside of the once-in-a-blue-moon obligatory mention of Sool and Sanaag, the man has minded his internal business, concentrating on rent-seeking activities with his sons at his side. His gamble with oil prospecting didn't pay off. His scheme to create a strong, disciplined, well-equipped militia under the guise of piracy prevention was scrapped mid-term due to international pressure on the donor(UAE). But you have to admire his tenacity - he still keeps on plugging away. Recently, one of his sons was able to obtain a $2 Million donation from the Emirates (obviously to be used in winning support for another term). From a SL perspective, his administration is a useful buffer against the lawless South with its Al Shabaab complications. Strictly from a Somaliland perspective

Outside of the noise from Somalilanders, the silence from certain corners is deafening, gentlemen. Hassan Sheikh has an active monetary pipeline from a certain foreign nation and has been busy within the parliament fully utilizing those funds. This is how he got both his cabinet and budget passed. Certain communities who thought they could play a spoiling role within the Federal system are finding their options limited. If you only knew how little it takes to bribe 40 Somali politicians! Poverty is a terrible thing...

Xaaji, why do you humor these little kids suffering from a bruised ego after a Somaliland girl refused to dance with them at their local 'xaflad'? They don't have the faintest idea about the events you're talking about. 'Qof kasta looma jawaabo....'

Eng.Cadde;911036 wrote: Ahmed madobe is a warlord and should be treated as a spoiler.he and his tol can not speak for other clans in the region,he can form a maamul goboleed for afmadow or dhoobleey for all i care,but insisting on imposing his will on the clans in the region will be not in the best interest of his beel in the long future. I understand your point but he does hold some significant cards when negotiating with the Mogadishu gov't, i.e. the full support of the Kenyan gov't! Hence, why he is allowed to export and collect taxes from charcoal (since the capture of Kismayo). Have patience, those cards will be less valuable after the Kenyan election passes...

If you read carefully above, you'll find the jist of the secret agreement just mid-wived by the international community between Ras Kamboni and Mogadishu. Ahmed Madobe will be allowed to administer Kismayo for some months(the current agreement predicts 6 months) after which local elections will take place (administered by Hassan Sheikh's gov't). How smoothly this process occurs is anyone's guess, given the turbulent/contentious history of the region. P.S. The larger event delaying immediate resolution for all involved (including the international community) is the far more significant results of the Kenyan elections...

NGONGE;911021 wrote: Where does Djibouti come into it and according to whom? That should be discussed in private between the two of you(and I don't mean by PM). You've already informed many unfriendly ears of 'far too many' internal affairs...

You guys are missing the larger point. It's irrelevant who met with who and who gave permission to who for a visit. What's more relevant is the 'immediate and very loud' denials by all politicians in Somaliland when they are accused of facilitating Somaliweyn policies. This shows how toxic (political suicide) this concept is for the public in a system where you come to power through the mass vote!

Let's not get our panties in a tight knot, people. The recognition is a 'diplomatic' win for Mogadishu, not a political or military win. Many are projecting their own agendas and tinted lenses on to the current situation. From the 'Unification supporters' to the 'Kulmiye haters', every random Farax and Jamac is attempting to put his/her own spin on it. The initial criticism was directed at the Somaliland Foreign Policy team which seems to have put the state in a 'diplomatically' more isolated position than when they initially took office 2 years ago. However, we're not at a moment where there's a 'clear and present' danger to the sovereignty and security of the Somaliland state. Let's take a deep breath....

NGONGE;910527 wrote: ^^ I am really lost here. What exactly changed this week to make you and the Guru go against the Kulmiye government this strongly? Nothing really changed. SL is stillt he same SL that took part in the first talks (the talks that Waraabe was part of, I saw him with my own eyes). So why was he (and you) ok with it back then and why are you talking about the world ending today? p.s. This is also why I teased you about defection the other day, Guru. Blessed, the man was in the team that took part in the first talks too. Ngonge, I know it's hard to keep track of member positions given the huge number of participants in this Forum, however let's be careful with the blanket statements and broad brushes. Speaking solely for myself, the issue is not with Kulmiye, but rather with the continuous failure of Somaliland leadership elites to properly predict and prepare for changing situations since the formation of Somaliland. We've had similar moments during the aftermath of Arta (Abdiqasim's gov't), Mbegathi (A. Yusuf's gov't), Djibouti Accords (Sharif's gov't), and now with Hassan Sheikh. Each time we hear naive statements coming from each successive Hargeisa admin that the new boys in Mog are friends of the cause, etc. And then the other shoe drops and it's back to square one. Something is wrong with the collective brain trust among the elites in Hargeisa and the 'masakiin' who stand out for hours in the sun to vote during each electoral cycle are betrayed(or let down, to use a less harsh term) once again.....

Well, this is a given and not to be denied to Hassan Sheikh or any other leader. If you're the leader of a gov't and a land that's been without a recognized government for over 20 years & you've just won the greatest diplomatic prize: recognition from the premier superpower of the world, wouldn't you want your own man/woman managing that relationship? I think a little objectivity is warranted, whether you support or oppose Hassan Sheikh's government.

ole-maasai;910390 wrote: All in all it doesnt sound pragramatic from the International community aproach, that they Isolate a functioning democratic entity for the sake of yet to be fully established Entity in and around mogadishu. What interest is there for them to pacify and side with one party while sidelining the other. I think the international community would objectvely analyse the situation and would really want to get it right this time. Its verily premature for many solers here, to overead into the US gesture towards the current Mogaidshu administration, coming up with utter exageration of the groomed muscles, thus dictating terms to its very providers. Having said that I agree with Oodka on Somaliland need to have its cards right. At least send a foreign minister with not only a strategic plan but a serious voice too Its said that in the diplomatic arenas the voice and the tones on the negotiating table can factor into the outcome. Very well put. I was one of the first to call out the SL gov't on this epic fail, but let's not get carried away. It's a significant diplomatic setback for SL, but it's not the end of SL! It's the ineptitude of the Foreign Agenda team in SL that's being highlighted here, not to mention a President that's missing in action during each national crisis, whether internal or external. These are undeniable facts observed by all. More than 5 days ago, I posted this from Africa Confidential: Mintid Farayar;908585 wrote: Northern parts Somaliland’s success story will come under growing regional pressure in 2013, partly because of developments in neighbouring Somalia. The key issue for Somaliland remains diplomatic recognition as a nation state. That seems as far away as ever despite the territory’s success both in generally maintaining peace and security within its self-declared territorial borders and in raising revenue. Yet it has been largely shunned by the international aid organisations and the major powers involved in Somalia. Bilateral talks between Somalia and Somaliland held in the United Arab Emirates and Britain last year ultimately came to nothing. Somaliland has adopted a realpolitik policy towards Mogadishu, a marked change from years past, and has largely abandoned its formerly hostile rhetoric. For 2013, President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo has announced a budget of US$123 million for Somaliland, $14 mn. more than neighbouring Somalia. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has given no indication that his government will hold meaningful discussions with the Hargeisa government over the issue of recognition, and both Puntland and Somaliland seem resigned to focus on domestic policies. Africa Confidential http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/69404-U.S.-Ambassador-Somaliland-the-solution-to-the-Northern-Mali-Crisis?p=908585#post908585 I remain hopeful that SL leadership(both gov't and opposition) will wake from their deep slumber, but some changes will need to happen at the top, in certain porfolios responsible for this setback. The good thing for all those suspicious of a strengthened Mogadishu is that not much additional funding is currently being tabled by Western donors after the Washington recognition. Mogadishu has a long way to go before it's trusted with serious funds, according to the holders of the purse strings...

Mooge;909317 wrote: somalia was taken out of the transition and a FULL GOVERMENT was selected and US was waiting for the transition to end. the americans had to recognize this new full goverment or all that effort by previous goveremnt and AU to get out of the tranisition would have been for wasted. qoslaaye was told to go to Washington by american embassy in nairobi few days ago because AU pressure on the US was mounting. everyone in nairobi knows this. the recognition should have been done the first day qoslaaye was selected. they are late few months. qoslaaye has done nothing since he came to power. this guy is still the most incompetent leader we ever had. Che, At least, we're not in denial like some corners...

Che -Guevara;909282 wrote: Mintid....regardless, this was big one for Xamar.. Che, There's no denying that.... But let's not blow the situation out of proportion. It's a huge diplomatic coup for Mogadishu. Let's see how far Mogadishu can carry the ball without dropping it.... Hassan Sheikh's recent actions, while vexing for the Somaliland administration, are not existentially threatening. Before that day comes, he'll need to overcome the Jubba challenge, followed by Puntland. The real question is why Hassan Sheikh needs to stick the finger in the Somaliland eye, not by seeking diplomatic recognition, but by appointing the Somaliland ministers in his gov't? And don't tell me it's b/c of the 4.5, because he's abandoned that formula from the beginning in the cabinet make-up. Our criticism is of the deep slumber (when it comes to these issues) Hargeisa elites have found themselves in. Finally, the deafening silence from our brothers to the East (Puntlanders) is noted

How quick some are to claim final victory! Our criticism is based on an anemic foreign policy not on faltering hopes. If you read the statement by Assistant Secretary Carson, his comments and hopes on Somalia's security and stability rests exclusively on AMISOM. Absolutely no mention of Somali governmental ownership. He states: We believe that over the last four years, our policies in Somalia and in the region have made a significant difference in strengthening stability in Mogadishu and in helping to get rid of the key members of the East Africa al-Qaida cell as well as breaking the back of al-Shabaab. We have done this largely with and through and alongside of our African partners in AMISOM. This has been a major, major success. We are a long way from where we were on October 3, 1993, when Blackhawk Down occurred in Mogadishu. Significant progress has been made in stabilizing the country, in helping to break up and defeat al-Shabaab. Much more needs to be done, but we think enormous progress has been made, and we have been at the very center of this in our support for AMISOM. I’d be glad to go into more details on this, but Hassan Sheikh will, through this recognition, be able to establish new relationships not only with USAID and the various development partners in the U.S. Government, but will also open up opportunities for his government to receive assistance from the international financial communities. If one cannot read between the lines through this, I'll enlighten - 'the Arms Embargo will continue!'

The glaring weakness in Hassan's administration is how narrowly based the decision-making process is. Apparently, Hassan doesn't leave any decision to his Prime Minister or Foreign MInister. The fact that he personally meets every foreign delegation at the Mogadishu airport as well as fly to Washington for the exchange of diplomatic portfolios telegraphs this deficiency. Key positions are staffed by relatives (by marriage) and trusted long-term friends. Don't celebrate too early, friends, the dual-track policy is in full effect. Hassan's portfolio is still limited to the 'South-West' as far as the international community is concerned.

Welcome back, Oodweyne! Glad to see someone understands the reality. Let's see if Hargeisa wakes from its diplomatic stupor.

As far back as November, I had commented on the diplomatic support the U.S. was providing Hassan Sheikh with (referenced in the previous posts pasted below). That support has now been raised to the highest diplomatic prize denied to all Somali leaders since M. Siad Barre. I commend the diplomatic skills of his team, regardless of the denials voiced here in SOL. The recognition will give him greater leverage in the Jubba situation when negotiating with both the Kenyans and Ethiopians. However, it will not have the financial benefits his administration so desperately pleads for from Washington. External financing will be limited to the Qatari and Turkish pipelines currently buttressing his administration. As for the arms embargo, exemptions might be made for particular limited situations, but I don't see a lifting in the near future. Mintid Farayar;889306 wrote: Somali president in u-turn over U.N. charcoal ban By Mohamed Ahmed Thursday, November 15, 2012 MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somalia's president has reversed course on what to do about millions of sacks of charcoal stockpiled in former rebel strongholds and now says they can be exported despite a U.N. embargo on the trade. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud three weeks ago...... Washington has indicated it would agree to the charcoal exports if the Somali government approved. (Additional reporting by Abdi Sheikh in Mogadishu and Louis Charbonneau at the United Nations; Writing by Yara Bayoumy; Editing by Richard Lough and Sonya Hepinstall). Source: Reuters http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2012/Nov/26868/somali_president_in_u_turn_over_u_n_charcoal_ban.aspx Mintid Farayar;889716 wrote: This is the diplomatic pressure/card the Federal Government possesses that I alluded to in earlier threads http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/68433-The-Financial-Story-Behind-the-Kismayo-Disagreement?p=889716#post889716

Che -Guevara;909034 wrote: I am not opposing this man being appointed. It's how XX and Mintid are talking and the deference they bestow upon him simply based on his family that find interesting. Omar was useless. Che, my friend, XX and I should stop educating you on Northern family trees Regardless of politics, Reer Waqooyi know each other from corner to corner. Both the Foreign Minister and Central Banker come from families with a pedigree based on reputation and past actions, not on class, power, or wealth. And they are from two completely different clans. Hence, Hassan Sheikh's picks are beginning to have a political stench to them... As for those claiming Abdisalam is from Ethiopia/Kililka 5, they couldn't be more wrong.

This Hassan Sheikh seems a lot more dangerous than I previously thought. The Fowzia move was a good first move, but the Abdisalam pick is brilliantly Machievellian! And I'm saying this from the perspective of someone who knows both individuals personally, not to mention the weight of their family history within Somaliland society. Abdisalam is about as top notch a professional as one can get. I'm not sure though if he's uniquely qualified as a Central Banker

Northern parts Somaliland’s success story will come under growing regional pressure in 2013, partly because of developments in neighbouring Somalia. The key issue for Somaliland remains diplomatic recognition as a nation state. That seems as far away as ever despite the territory’s success both in generally maintaining peace and security within its self-declared territorial borders and in raising revenue. Yet it has been largely shunned by the international aid organisations and the major powers involved in Somalia. Bilateral talks between Somalia and Somaliland held in the United Arab Emirates and Britain last year ultimately came to nothing. Somaliland has adopted a realpolitik policy towards Mogadishu, a marked change from years past, and has largely abandoned its formerly hostile rhetoric. For 2013, President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo has announced a budget of US$123 million for Somaliland, $14 mn. more than neighbouring Somalia. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has given no indication that his government will hold meaningful discussions with the Hargeisa government over the issue of recognition, and both Puntland and Somaliland seem resigned to focus on domestic policies. Africa Confidential

The ineptitude of the foreign policy portfolio in Somaliland never ceases to amaze me for the last 15 years. Talk about chasing your tail in the wrong corridors...

January 14, 2013 Why We Must Help Save Mali By VICKI HUDDLESTON SANTA FE, N.M. FRENCH airstrikes that began on Friday have stopped, for now, a network of terrorists, criminals and religious extremists from taking over Mali. Until the French stepped in, the near-collapse of the military had threatened to turn Mali, a landlocked, desperately poor country, into a desert stronghold for jihadists. America, which has spent more than $500 million over the last four years to keep Islamist militants at bay in West Africa, has its hands full in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt and Libya, among other places, but it is in our national interest to support the French. North African countries, in particular Algeria, must also help save Mali from catastrophe. This conflict is not like other African wars that had only marginal effects on the West. The Islamists in Mali have linked up with Boko Haram, the Nigerian militant group that blew up United Nations offices in Abuja in 2011, and with Ansar al-Shariah, which is thought to be responsible for the murders last September of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi, Libya. The French aerial attacks have stopped the Islamists — including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, its offshoot the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, and Ansar Dine, a group of Tuareg rebels from the north — from seizing an airport and river port, and marching on the capital, Bamako. But the militants are reconstituting and rearming in their northern desert stronghold. The United States need not put combat troops on the ground. Instead, we should provide intelligence, equipment, financing and training for a West African intervention force that the United Nations Security Council approved in December (but did not finance). The French will not be able to depart quickly — even if the West African force is assembled, France will have to mentor and coordinate troops from its former colonies like Mauritania, Niger and Chad. International cooperation has been effective against Al-Shabab, a Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, and it can succeed in Mali. In Somalia, American troops and contractors trained and equipped African Union troops, including soldiers from Uganda and Burundi. Together with a new Somali army, they pushed Shabab terrorists out of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia last year. North Africa, not West Africa, is the key to saving Mali. One proposal, to have Nigeria lead a coalition of West African forces in Mali, has little chance of success; Nigeria lacks the capacity to fight a guerrilla war or an urban war. It has English-speaking Christian troops who might exacerbate Mali’s ethnic and religious tensions, and its heavy-handed attempts to counter its own Boko Haram extremists have so far failed. Algeria is the only country on the continent with the military capacity, seasoned officers, counterterrorism experience and geographic proximity to take over from France in bringing peace to Mali. Algeria’s military leaders know the extremists’ tactics and their leaders. It defeated them in a civil war that lasted from 1991 to 2002 and resulted in extremists’ setting up terrorist operations in northern Mali. Algeria has a moral responsibility to act, but if it continues to stay on the sidelines, then Morocco or another North African country should take the lead — with support from Niger, Mauritania, Mali and Chad, which, like Algeria, have been fighting Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb for the past eight years. Algeria is also essential to ending the rebellion of the nomadic Tuareg, who are culturally, ethnically and linguistically North African and resist the rule of the sub-Saharan ethnic groups that run Mali. Their rebellion began in late 2011, when Tuareg fighters who had fought in Libya alongside its deposed ruler, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, returned home. They joined with Islamist militants who had moved in to northern Mali from Algeria, but the Islamists then turned on many of the Tuaregs and consolidated power. Algeria has negotiated the peace during past Tuareg rebellions in northern Mali and can do so again. The key to peace in Mali is to first defeat the Islamist insurgents and then for Bamako to negotiate autonomy for the northern nomads — who, in concert with the African peacekeepers, will be responsible for their defense. The arrangement might look something like that of Somaliland, a region of northern Somalia that has held democratic elections, maintained peace and become a de facto sovereign state. Mali’s army has never effectively controlled the region north of the Niger River; its troops fear the warlike nomads. A tribal chief in northern Mali once told me, “If you want to control the Sahara, you will have to work with us. We have been masters of the desert for thousands of years and we will continue to rule here.” Years of training by United States Special Forces did not stop the Malian military from fleeing when the Islamist insurgency started last January. In fact, the military exacerbated the chaos by overthrowing Mali’s democratically elected government last March. Reconstituting Mali’s broken government and discredited military will take years, but making sure that Mali doesn’t become a launchpad for terrorism is an even greater priority. France has begun to exercise leadership; the United States must not dither in doing its share. Vicki Huddleston, the United States ambassador to Mali from 2002 to 2005, has been a deputy assistant secretary in the State and Defense Departments. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/opinion/why-we-must-help-save-mali.html?pagewanted=print

Unfortunately, this gives a huge propaganda victory to Al Shabaab, just when Somalis and the world community thought the group was on its last legs. This will drum up increased financial support from rich, extremist Arab Gulf patrons.