Mintid Farayar
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Posts posted by Mintid Farayar
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Taleexi;915022 wrote:
... Isaga oo aan marqaansayn la tali.A cheap taunt, my friend!
Bilaash 'Guru' loogu mabixin....
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I hear you loud and clear, saaxiib, but we must be careful in not giving a detailed blueprint of Somaliland's operatives (regardless of their competency or lack thereof) in an open Forum filled with .........
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Metta,
You took my original reply as an attack on you personally. That was not what I meant. You're likely correct that the British warning is Al Shabaab-related. You're also correct that the leadership of AS could very easily melt into any number of Somali cities.
However, for the top leader of this group (with a $7 Million bounty on his head) to drive around in a LandCruiser, to be seen by people like your 'friend/relative' (even though you state Hargeisawis don't really know what he looks like, but your 'dhaqan-celis' friend who recently returned to the country knows exactly what he looks like?!) does not appear credible.
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Xaaji Xunjuf;914987 wrote:inagu wax weyn isku ma hayno taleexiyow let me deal with the koonfurians first.Hadalka murtidiisu wa kaa...
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metta;914958 wrote:It can't be because a bunch of reer Waqooyi Shabab members have started to come back home. That has been happening more than a year now. It has to be something else more substantial....I have been told by a dhaqan celis relative in Hargeisa this week that he has personally spotted Godane in a Landcruiser being driven by 'unidentified men'.I thought this was a case of mistaken identity and respectfully refused to believe him. However, I heard from an older friend of mine that he has heard himself that Godane has made his way into Hargeisa and has been seen in the city. This got me thinking. Two different sources, it can't be a coincidence :confused:Has anyone else heard from family or friends if Godane has been spotted?Not credible. Supposedly your friend spotted him in a LandCruiser which means untinted windows, which means others have also seen him as well.
A)Given that said individual has a bounty of $7 Million on his head;
B)given that he's conducted the only serious terrorist attack in that city where scores of locals where killed or maimed;
C)given that the locals are extremely poor and $7 Million would come in extremely handy;
D)given that Somaliland would score major points in Western attention by apprehending him;
How likely do you think said individual would be- to be riding around Hargeisa chilling in a LandCruiser???
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nuune;914902 wrote:Waa sax, maybe my accent wasn't the best afterall, since I had a Baajuni accent, my first word was, see camal waraa, then the fees came in -
Xaaji Xunjuf;914925 wrote:They lack the training discipline and the needed equipment finances and coordination, the current army in Somalia needs to be fully transformed right now you have just some organized militia i just hope hassan knows what he is doing.Hassan has far bigger problems coming up! There's a reason for his rumored opposition to Federalism but I won't get ahead of the ball on that situation(but the reasons behind his strong advocacy for the lifting of the arms embargoe will be self-evident quite soon) . All will become clear within the next 2 months...
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May I remind you of Mogadishu circa 1991-1992! When the heavy armaments of Siyad Barre's forces fell into the hands of ill-disciplined sub-clan militias. Look at what happened to the most beautiful city in East Africa.....
Some might argue that the forces currently under the Federal Gov't in Mogadishu are in better shape but I ask how come they haven't been able to launch a single independent operation on their own without AMISOM?
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Xaaji Xunjuf;914839 wrote:Somalia wants help strengthening its poorly equipped andoften ill-disciplinedmilitary that is more of a loosely affiliatedumbrella group of rival militiasthan acohesive fighting force loyal to a single president.Source: ReutersBe careful what you wish for! Giving advanced weaponry to various sub-clan militias masquerading as National Armed Forces is a dangerous cocktail....
It would be wiser to work on the discipline and cohesion of the FG forces first before introducing new weapons into the environment.
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2 weeks ago, I stated simliar beliefs on the Puntland situation and the current leadership there:
Mintid Farayar;911070 wrote:Faroole, for all intents and purposes, has been a responsible neighbor from the SL perspective. He's been highly effective in sidelining elements within his community who have a far more hard-line position towards SL. He's divorced his administration from the warmongers among the Sool community who aim to create a new war between Somaliland and Puntland, leaving them in the political wilderness(in Mogadishu hotels, dependent on the dwindling financial handouts from a radicalized diaspora while being ignored by their local hosts). Outside of the once-in-a-blue-moon obligatory mention of Sool and Sanaag, the man has minded his internal business, concentrating on rent-seeking activities with his sons at his side. His gamble with oil prospecting didn't pay off. His scheme to create a strong, disciplined, well-equipped militia under the guise of piracy prevention was scrapped mid-term due to international pressure on the donor(UAE). But you have to admire his tenacity - he still keeps on plugging away. Recently, one of his sons was able to obtain a $2 Million donation from the Emirates (obviously to be used in winning support for another term).From a SL perspective, his administration is a useful buffer against the lawless South with its Al Shabaab complications. Strictly from a Somaliland perspective
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STOIC;914875 wrote:AUN the dead..May Allah give Sabr to the family..Now Minti You should have let Puntland folks report the bad news..Its NOT nice when you Somalilanders only REPORT the bad news from Puntland..A bit childish...Quick assumptions only lead to wrong conclusions!
Actually, this is a worrisome development for Somaliland - nor should any Somalilander celebrate these events, as you're implying. Puntland is a strategic buffer for Somaliland, protecting from the extremist-induced chaos of the South. Instability and the break down of law & order in Puntland will have immediate negative ramifications on Somaliland. The forced abandonment of major urban centers in the South by Al Shabaab only pushes them up north, a result the international community has been slow to wake up to.
Stoic, my position on that region has been very nuanced. Somaliland and Puntland have been cooperating on law & order issues for over a decade. There can be differences on political trajectories, but cooperation on maintaining the respective systems is to the benefit of both communities.
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Suldaan ka tirsanaa Isimmada Waaweyn ee Puntland oo Maanta lagu Toogtay Magaalada Boosaaso ee Gobolka Bari
Sabti, Feberaayo 02, 2013 (HOL) — Suldaan Muuse Faarax Muuse oo ahaa suldaanka guud ee beelaha ****** *********, ayaa barqanimadii maanta lagu toogtey bartamaha magaalada Boosaaso ee xarunta gobolka Bari.
Taliyihii hore ee ciidamada Booliska Puntland Col. Cabdicasiis (Gacamey) oo ay suldaanka ehel yihiin, islamarkaana warbaahinta maxalliga ah dilka kadib la hadlay, ayaa sheegay in suldaanka ay toogteen rag ku lebisnaa diriiska ciidamada.
Wuxuuna intaas raaciyey in dableyda suldaanka diley oo ku hubeysnaa qoryaha darandooriga u dhaca ee AK47 ay durbadiiba goobta ka baxsadeen, si dhab ahna aan ilaa iyo hadda loo aqoonsan.
Goobta uu dilku ka dhacay ayaa ah faras magaalaha, waxaana ka agdhow xarumo badan oo ay dowladdu leedahay, kuwaasoo ay kamid yihiin: xarunta dowladda hoose, xarunta maamulka gobolka, Bankiga iyo xarunta taliska Booliska ee gobolka Bari.
Ma jiro ilaa iyo hadda wax war ah oo dhinaca dowladda kasoo baxay oo ku aadan dilka Suldaan Muuse Faarax Muuse, waxaase socda baaritaanno arintaas la xiriira oo ay Boolisku wadaan.
Suldaan Muuse Faarax Muuse oo ahaa Isim si weyn looga tixgeliyo Puntland, waxaa la filaya in saacadaha soo socda lagu aaso isla magaalada Boosaaso.
Dilalka qorsheysan ayaa labadii sano ee ugu danbeeyey si aad ah ugu soo badanayey magaalada Boosaaso, wuxuuna dilkani noqonayaa kii ugu horeeyey ee noociisa ah ee ka dhaca sanadka cusub ee 2013.
Maxamed Salaad Xaaji Dirir, Hiiraan Online
Puntland, Soomaaliya
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Che -Guevara;914741 wrote:I have officially accepted Faroole is nuts.Actually, it's a clever gamble to get much needed attention from Mogadishu. Like I've stated before, he's quite the tactician! Attempting to play an essentially weak position as a strong hand. Use an imaginary partnership with Hargeisa to scare Mogadishu into giving you a piece of the pie...
Where are all the Puntlanders previously claiming the 'diplomatic' recognition was either a plus or irrelevant as far as Puntland was concerned??
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The famous Somaliland emotions at play here?! Too much hand-wringing as well as 'laundry washed in public' leads to.... Well, you can fill in the rest.
What has really changed here? The U.S. has conferred diplomatic recognition on Hassan Sheikh's government(for its own 'terror-war'-specific reasons). A significant 'diplomatic' win for his faction. But what does that change on the ground? Thus far, not much. The Presidential Compound is not safe (as attested to by the suicide bombing just a few days ago), let alone any other part of Xamar. Hassan Sheikh's government still remains a government in name only, manned by expatriates with significant portions of their wealth, professional life, and families invested in foreign lands with little grassroots influence on the ground in Mogadishu, let alone other parts of Somalia.
Meanwhile, Somaliland, by doing exactly what it's been doing for the last 22 years, can weather the current status quo. There will be the occasional defections by individuals offered new opportunities down South, just like you'll have the reverse with those disappointed in the game down South returning to Hargeisa and requesting Presidential clemency. Yet the independence stance of Somaliland, which is a bottom-driven creed of the population, shall and will not change. The Somaliland system, gentlemen, is too well-entrenched, too deeply invested from the public perspective to be affected by individuals holding a particular position, whether as a Somaliland rep in Washington, or as a Minister in Hargeisa.
The good news is that Somaliland, by building the only functioning indigenous state-apparatus in the former Somali Republic, can afford to wait.
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xiinfaniin;913929 wrote:^^Poor explanation, Mintid. But this is a bit hard to explain away.In fact there is an active Embassy in Mogadishu as we speak. Foreign Secretary has been to Mogadishu last year. British presence in Somalia has been increasing, not decreasing, Mintid. Same goes to Oodweyne.I am done speculating...Oodweyne has stopped playing the analysis game here in this fora. He is reduced to lash out against Siilaanyo adim on a one hand, and hold the forte for the notion of separation from Somalia on the other hand...a difficult balancing act that cannot be sustained in the long run.We're getting a little a head of ourselves here! In fact, there is no British Embassy in Mogadishu or anywhere else in the former Somalia. A little Google search will clear that up for you. I can give you some pointers/links if that's necessary. The British Rep to Somalia operates out of Nairobi. I know the seasonal euphoria can sometimes addle the brain, but a return to reality is warranted.
The British (as well as all other Western presence) in Mogadishu are relegated to 'spook-activity' operating out of bunkers near the airport.
As for the security warning, I would take it at face value rather than jumping to conspiracy theories.
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xiinfaniin;913912 wrote:^^Not really.You guys are predictable. I don't believe the Brits are issuing this alert due to a real intelligence on the ground showing a credible alshabaab threat in Hargeysa. It is rather an expectation that your politics may spin out of control a bit. The framework to realign you back to the real world I am sure is in place. But there has been a long understanding between successive administrations in Somaliland and IC ...apparently the IC found that understanding inadequate to interact with the new political reality in Somalia. Consequently, understandable disappointments from those in the top of the admin may translate into street voilance ...a reasonable expectation , dont you say Oodweyne?If that is way off of an analysis...you owe me an explanation as to why the rest of Somalia where terror infrastructure has been built in the last 6 years has not been impacted by this security alert.Maybe because the rest of Somalia is and has been an absolute no-go area for British and other Western nationals for 20 plus years....
Hmmm... You think.....
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Mintid Farayar;913711 wrote:Wasiirka warfaafinta, isgaarsiinta iyo gaadiidka xukuumadda Soomaaliya, Cabdullaahi Ciilmooge Xirsi oo shir jaraa'id ku qabtay Muqdisho ayaa sheegay in ruuxii ismiidaaminta ka geystay afaafka hore ee xafiiska ra'iisul wasaaraha Soomaaliya oo madaxtooyada ku dhow uu kasoo goostay Al-shabaab.Wasiirka ayaa sheegay inay soo gudbin doonaan magacaruuxan oo ka tiranaa hay'adda nabadsugidda Qaranka,The National Intelligence Service was supposed to be the most effective security branch of the Federal Government, but even it seems infiltrated by Al Shabaab agents...
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Xukuumadda Soomaaliya oo sheegtay in ruuxii Ismiidaaminta sameeyay uu ka soo goostay Xarakada Al-shabaab
Talaado, Jannaayo 29, 2013 (HOL) — Wasiirka warfaafinta, isgaarsiinta iyo gaadiidka xukuumadda Soomaaliya, Cabdullaahi Ciilmooge Xirsi oo shir jaraa'id ku qabtay Muqdisho ayaa sheegay in ruuxii ismiidaaminta ka geystay afaafka hore ee xafiiska ra'iisul wasaaraha Soomaaliya oo madaxtooyada ku dhow uu kasoo goostay Al-shabaab.
Wasiirka ayaa sheegay inay soo gudbin doonaan magaca ruuxan oo ka tiranaa hay'adda nabadsugidda Qaranka, isagoo hadalkiisa ku daray in hal askari oo ciidamada dowladda ka tirsan uu ku dhintay weerarkaas.
"Ciidamadii fashiliyay weerarka ayaan u mahadcelinaynaa, weerarkuna wuxuu ahaa mid fashilmay oo uu ku dhintay ruuxii weerarka qaaday iyo hal askari oo ka tirsan ciidamada dowladda, sidoo kale waxaa ku dhaawacmay saddex askari oo kale," ayuu yiri wasiirka wafaafinta.
Sidoo kale, wasiirku wuxuu sheegay inay baaritaanno ku hayaan sidii uu qaraxu ku dhacay iyo halka laga soo abaabulay, isagoo xusay inay ku rajo weyn yihiin in qaraxan uu noqon doono kii ugu dambeeyay oo ay Al-shabaab ka geysato Muqdisho.
Ma jirto cid sheegatay inay weerarkaas ka dambeysay, iyadoo si weyn ay u cambaareeyeen weerarka dalalka saaxiibka la ah Soomaaliya iyo ciidamada Midowga Afrika ee AMISOM.
Ruuxa ismiidaaminta sameeyay ayaa la sheegay inuu doonayay inuu isku qarxiyo xarun ay ha'yadda nabadsugidda Qaranka ku leedahay gudaha madaxtooyada, balse ciidammo ku sugnaa koontarool ku dhow xafiiska ra'iisul wasaaraha ayaa ogaaday in ninkan uu isku soo xiray waxyaabaha qarxa, taasna ay keentay inuu isla goobta isku qarxiyo.
Xukuumadda Soomaaliya ayaa sheegtay inay ka hortagayso falalka noocan oo kale ah, iyadoo aysan jirin mas'uul ka tirsan dowladda oo wax ku noqday weerarkaas.
Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online
Muqdisho, Soomaaliya
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January 29, 2013
Suicide Bomber Kills 2 at Somali President's Villa
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — A suicide bomber detonated explosives outside the prime minister's home in Somalia's presidential palace compound, killing two people, an official said Tuesday.
The man blew himself up Tuesday morning when he was questioned by soldiers manning a checkpoint in the palace complex known as Villa Somalia, said Mohamed Ali, a police officer at the official residence in Mogadishu, the capital.
Villa Somalia has a large compound with several buildings and checkpoints. The bomber was four more checkpoints away from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's home, Ali said. The president is said to be out of the country on state business.
The checkpoint where the blast took place is near the home of Prime Minister's Abdi Farah Shirdon which is also in the compound, according to officials.
Shirdon was at home but was not harmed, according to an official from the palace who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak with the press.
Shirdon later released a statement read by Somalia's information minister saying one soldier was killed in the attack and the attacker is believed to be an operative of the al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab insurgent group.
"This inhumane and barbaric attack shows once again the cruel twisted ideology of killing and destruction by the al-Shabab," Shirdon said.
However, a military officer at the palace, Yusuf Abdi, said two soldiers died and three others were wounded in the explosion, backing what Ali had said.
"He killed two people and himself on the spot, his evil attempt has failed," Ali said.
Al -Shabab has opposed President Mohamud's election and government, saying it had been manipulated by western powers.
The president survived an assassination attempt on his second day in office in September when two suicide bombers blew themselves up while trying to gain access into a heavily guarded hotel serving as his temporary residence.
Mohamud, 56, who was an academic and activist before becoming president, is expected to form the county's first functioning central government since 1991, when warlords overthrew longtime dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.
Since 2004, Somalia has been represented by a U.N.-approved leadership structure called the Transitional Federal Government that until recently only controlled small parts of Mogadishu. That government accomplished little, but since African Union and Somali troops pushed the al-Shabab extremists out of the capital in 2011 and most parts of the country they occupied in 2012, positive momentum new stability is building.
Al-Shabab militants, though evicted from Mogadishu, still penetrate the seaside capital to carry out suicide attacks.
The international community is supporting Mohamud's government saying it's a step toward moving the country out of its failed-state status but that much more remains to be done in a country bloodied by two decades of war.
In a sign of progress, the United States last week officially recognized the Somali government for the first time since Barre's fall 1991.
Mohamud faces an uphill task unifying a fractious country in the face of the Islamist radicals' insurgency and rebuilding a bombed-out infrastructure, food security and institutions. Another challenge is fighting the endemic corruption that plagued previous governments.
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Possession is nine-tenths of the law
Some find it hard to understand this concept in the 'power' game...
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Ngonge,
Your points are valid regarding the tone of the article (even though it's written by an open-minded Hejazi who doesn't represent the Saudi mainstream). However, for those of us familiar with the Gulf region, the Somali situation is not even in the conversation among our Arab cousins. Hence, why it only comes up in moments of geo-strategic envy with the Turks.
As for the Gulen movement, I referred to the preponderance of this group in Turkish aid to Somalia as far back as Nov 2011; however others in the Forum where too excited over the entry of a new foreign player in the Somali saga. Somalis, even the educated ones, are woefully inadequate in scratching below the surface even in matters involving their own affairs.
We, collectively, have to stop waiting for a foreign messiah to solve our problems and come up with indigenous solutions to our issues. But it looks as if we'll be waiting a long time.
Mintid Farayar;755212 wrote:Banking on Turkey to save the day? Unfortunately, for all its all rhetoric, it's not yet even a regional power yet, let alone a global power that's able to influence the Horn (case in point: it's inability thus far to influence the Syrian situation even though that's where Turkey was assumed to have the greatest influence). Just another attempt for the Turkish 'Gulen' movement/business sect to penetrate East African markets. Saw more robust investment by this group in Kenya and Tanzania in the past few years.Penetration of under-developed and overlooked markets for Turkish products - this has been the real genius of the ruling party in Turkey (and how it's been able to deliver phenomenal economic growth in the past decade for their constituencies).http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/59771-Turkey-Builds-Schools-In-Somali-Capital?p=755212#post755212 Posted 2011-11-01
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Carafaat;911524 wrote:Wishfull thinking. Not the first time Xiin predicts the downfall of Somaliland, and everytime SL managed to control more of its territority.Some of our brothers mistake healthy debate over the direction of policy in a democratic and solidified system for 'panic'. Due to the psychological projection of their own fragile systems, they mistake each vigorous debate over tactics as the 'impending doom' of the whole system. Expect more articles on the demise of Somaliland to make appearances on the Wardheers of the world....
P.S. Whenever, the usual debates of the election cycle take place in their Western countries of refuge, they must quake in fear of a civil war breaking out
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Silly debate over the airwaves by politicians from both sides. Basically, slogans to shore up their own internal power-jockeying within their respective governments.
The question is: Why are the talks slow in progressing? Who's eager to move forward with the talks and who's dragging their feet? Why? The answers to these questions give a far better idea of the situation than the usual obligatory statements emanating from both sides...
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Oodweyne;911248 wrote:^^^Xiiny,Well, if the intra-tolka fighting has been straighten out, then, I suppose it is all to the good. But, still a little birds tells me (or at least nag me with it) that the first time the"division"of the spoils of the offices for jubbaland state is contemplated it, will be when this"feign love of brotherhood"will meet it's natural demise and we will in turn see ourDukey, in his usual way, biting viciously, the ankle of our good friendGabal...
Hence, as a betting man, I would put good money for us to see such spectacle as soon as this thing call Jubbaland gets to be established, officially, on the ground in the region..:DOodka,
Ethiopia is having a difficult time restraining Barre Hiraale and co. It's all about the port proceeds and personalities. Don't entertain grand illusions from some of a 'grand understanding' between various segments of a clan-family. And thus far, Madobe has been in no mood to share the loot. Same cycle, different day....
Somaliland: Airport Levy and Security Bill Approved
in Politics
Posted
Why is the contract awarded to a private company? Why not train a professional airport civil service that's paid a 'livable' wage to institutionalize services within government bureaucracies.
Me thinks, we're following the bad precedents of other African and Arab states....