Not correct, my dear Xiin. The world already knows as Che pointed out. I'm educating some deluded pirates...

No amount of smoke screens can cover the overwhelming image problem. It's made opposing Hassan Sheikh's maneuvers difficult for some. Hence the new found interest in opening a political front on the Jubba side..... As for it being a one off article, would you like more??

Further reality checks are needed. You see, we don't need to quote from obscure websites set up by our little cousins in the diaspora Somali piracy 'boosts Puntland economy' Images of central Garowe: The left one taken in February 2002, the right in June 2009 New research suggests piracy has led to widespread economic development in some parts of Somalia. The study, published by British think-tank Chatham House, looked at detailed satellite imagery. Regional centres have benefited from substantial investment funded by piracy, but coastal communities have missed out, the report indicates. International naval patrols in the Gulf of Aden are making it more difficult for Somali pirates to launch attacks. However, at least 40 vessels and more than 400 hostages are still being held in or just off Somalia, according to the Ecoterra International group which monitors piracy in the region. A two-decade civil war in Somalia has allowed pirates to flourish. Some of them are former fishermen who say they were put out of business by trawlers from around the world taking advantage of the power vacuum to fish in Somali waters. The study suggests a land-based solution is needed to tackle the problem. Report author Anja Shortland says that in 2009, pirates received an estimated $70m (£46m) in ransom payments - more than five times the official budget of the semi-autonomous Puntland region where most pirates are based and almost double total cattle exports from the whole of Somalia. She cites a UN study that about 30% of a ransom payment goes to pirates, 10% to their shore-based helpers, 10% in gifts and bribes to the local community and 50% to financiers and sponsors, who are generally based abroad. She used high-resolution daytime satellite images and also looked at night light emissions throughout the decade starting in 2000. The night pictures show a significant increase in light emissions from Puntland's main centres of Garowe and Bosasso. This suggests an increase in electricity consumption because of economic development, the study says. The increase in the highest intensity light spots in those cities came despite a general decline in intensity across Somalia, which Ms Shortland attributes to global food and energy price rises and renewed conflict. None of the pirate communities on the coast appeared to have enough power, she observed. Shared benefits Analysis of daytime satellite image showed that Garowe almost doubled in area between 2002 and 2009, with significant housing, industrial and commercial developments. Many houses were newly built or repaired between those dates and a much larger number have vehicles parked outside. The key pirate ports of Eyl and Hobyo, by contrast, showed evidence of only limited and relatively small improvements to their infrastructure. The report concludes that significant amounts of ransom money are spent in the regional centres, with the benefits being shared out between a large number of people due to the clan structures in place. "Puntland's political elites are therefore unlikely to move decisively against piracy," it says. In addition to satellite images, the Chatham House report analysed information collected by non-governmental organisations on commodity prices and wages. Data from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit suggests nominal daily wages in the pirate provinces of Nugal and Muduq "have caught up with and then overtaken non-pirate regions since the explosion of piracy in 2008," the study says. In Nugal province, the daily wage increased from 40,000 Somali shillings in 2005 to 120,000 in 2011 ($1 = 25,000 Somali shillings). "This is likely to reflect both direct employment opportunities and investments into local businesses." The report adds that the positive effect of piracy on incomes in parts of Puntland has been offset by the impact of food price inflation. International response In response to the massive increase in piracy off Somalia in 2008 and international naval force was established to patrol the seas off Somalia. The Chatham House report observes that pirate attacks off Somalia have become considerably more violent since mid-2010, because of the increased difficulty of capturing ships. "Pirates now invest more resources in maximising the return from each captured ship," it says. The report also warns that if pirates increase their co-operation with Islamist militants from the al-Shabab group, piracy could end up funding regional instability and terror. Ms Shortland argues that a land-based response is necessary to help tackle piracy. "A negotiated solution to the piracy problem should aim to exploit local disappointment among coastal communities regarding the economic benefits from piracy and offer them an alternative that brings them far greater benefits than hosting pirates does," she says. "A military crack-down on the other hand would deprive one of the world's poorest nations of an important source of income and aggravate poverty." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16534293

Che -Guevara;928674 wrote: ^Dear boy, countries send their navies to fight piracy off coast of Puntland and shipping companies pay higher insurance premiums because of piracy emanating from Puntland. Again, tell us something world doesn't know! Che, You know that, I know that, the world knows that... But every once a while, it's necessary to bring some others on this Board back to reality as to where things stand... A little soft landing....

Whether you agree with the article or not is irrelevant. The larger point is the daunting image problem Puntland faces ever since some of its more enterpresing sons got involved in international piracy.

Pretty well, considering the obstacles. Somalis from the diaspora are primarily investing in 2 areas: Somaliland and Mogadishu(the city). The only difference is you won't get blown up in Hargeisa while sipping a cappucino.

VOA English not Somali. In case you're interested, http://www.voanews.com/content/puntland-development-20mar13/1624991.html

Yet, Xiin and co. would have us believe that Puntland is held up in the same light as Somaliland Meanwhile, Somaliland is held up as the positive potential of what the rest of the former Somalia should aspire towards in terms of stability and governance. Every once in a while, a hard reality check is needed.....

Puntland Maneuvers for Bigger Role 20 March 2013 Voice of America Press Releases and Documents VOA English CY Copyright © 2013 Federal Information & News Dispatch, Inc. VOA English Service Puntland Maneuvers for Bigger Role Joe DeCapua Last updated on: March 20, 2013 6: 24 AM The semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland is perhaps best known for its pirates. They've hijacked many ships and crewmembers demanding millions of dollars in ransom. But efforts are underway to develop Puntland and improve the quality of life for its people. Listen to De Capua report on Puntland (http://www.voanews.com/audio/Audio/267896.html) Besides being home to many Somali pirates, Puntland is also known for its smugglers. They're often hired by Somali and Ethiopians wanting to cross the Gulf of Aden to Yemen. Many migrants are robbed or killed in the process. It's a tough image to shake, but Puntland is a work in progress, according to Paul Crook, who's chief technical advisor in Somalia for the International Labor Organization. "We see the power of the negative. The negative image is one of piracy -- that lovely word that conjures up so much and the influence of international criminality and extremist organizations, which still are around. Al Qaeda manifests itself with al Shabab, for example." Al Shabab is the main militant group in Somalia. It's been the target of a long offensive by AU, Somali and Kenyan forces. Much territory has been retaken, but the group has not been defeated. Poverty and piracy are linked and young, unemployed men see it as a way to improve the quality of their lives and that of their families. Crook said that the international community should do more to break that link by offering alternatives. "I think it's very important that we support all the governments in the entire region to enable young people, particularly young men, to feel part of society in terms of employment being a major element of this," he said. Puntland is in northeastern Somalia. Its leaders declared it an autonomous state in 1998. The self-declared independent Somaliland lies to the west and has been lobbying for international recognition as a separate nation. Crook said that it's unclear whether Puntland would reunite with Somalia once peace returns. "The opinion changes on an almost monthly basis as we see the vacillations of political processes. Clearly, the case is people see that they are part of a greater nation, if not state, and see the need for collaboration. And this is where the International Labor Organization clearly has a key role in terms of sponsorship of employment-led economic development -- because micro states will have to coalesce to take on the challenges that come with a very fragile environment and the need to create employment on a very large scale." Some observers have sad Puntland does indeed want to reunite with Somalia, but wants assurances it would play a major role. One potential area for employment is oil and gas exploration, which is underway. "That's where the international community must come in - and our ability to work with the other international partners - to ensure that whatever the setting that the resources are used for the greater Somali people. And some people will continue to want the status quo where government is still not strong and they can exploit the situation because people can't hold people accountable," said Crook. Recent oil and gas exploration, however, has had disappointing results. The ILO technical advisor said he recently chaired a meeting in the Puntland capital Garowe of the U.N. Joint Program on Local Governance. The program, he says, supports effective management in district councils. He added that open debate and dialogue is important for Puntland's population. "If you engage openly then people will respond. We just had a Facebook page running in piracy and also on women's rights. Some of the comments were very, very good. Unfortunately, some people have seen their culture denuded by being part of the Diaspora and use some rather obnoxious language. But the sense is that everybody is able to express a view and will express a view," he said. Once people in Puntland agree to something, he said, there is usually a strong commitment to deliver. "In a sense, it's taking us back to what we saw many years ago in terms of a handshake and a gentlemen's agreement." However, desire for open debate among the people of Puntland has recently run into a government ban on three radio stations. The Ministry of Information says they lacked the proper licenses. The National Union of Somali Journalists calls the bans and other government action attacks on press freedom. U.S. Government

^^ ;) Careful, careful.... Don't get us banned now

Unfortunately for Puntland, the piracy pipeline has, effectively, been shut down. Check the latest stats on the revenue stream from that 'considerable' lifeline. The last year was a tough one It's back to the goats and the dhows to Yemen...

Al Shabaab functions by preying on inter-communal strife(by siding with the marginalized groups to get a footlhold in the region). This is a strategy understood by Western intelligence services(although not by our dear Xiin, unfortunately). That's why they're(Al Shabaab) able to maintain a foothold in the Galgala mountains of Puntland, Hiiraan, Jubbas, etc. It's precisely for this reason that many, including Western powers, are reluctant to endorse your Jubba/Azania project as long as there are certain populations marginalized. Unfortunately for your side, Hassan Sheikh and his advisors have understood/become aware of this worry on the part of the West. Therefore, Hassan Sheikh and co. are busy using this argument in their meetings with donors when the Jubba situation is under discussion.

Xiin, What you fail to factor in, as you prematurely count your ducks before the eggs are even hatched, is the composition of this 'international community' and whether they all have a unanimous agenda. Lift the veil of that blanket(IC blanket), and you will find warring interests at every corner! Now the difference for the Somali actors is that SL alone can happily live in the status quo of the last 22 years while the other actors need the continuous 'nafaqo' of the so-called 'IC' to make it to the next month Note: Puntland is a special case that's able to stumble along with unpaid security services, a civil society decimated by 'anonymous killings', and solely held together by the constant fear of the neighbors down South....

Ngonge, There's a glaring reality our anti-Somaliland brothers refuse to factor in to the equation(I don't know whether it's the 'political power of being naive' one refers to or not). It's the little 'annoying' reality of dealing with a democracy where the populace has a vote and determines who gets to occupy the seat. That more than anything will influence the Siilaanyo admin It's much easier for outside powers to pressure leadership in a system where leadership is not accountable to the street(such as Mogadishu, Garowe,etc. in the current setup) but paramount for any administration in Hargeisa is maintaining incumbency(which only comes through the vote). A good example is the recent Kenyan elections where both the U.S. and U.K. came out strongly against Kenyatta in the run-up to Election Day yet ultimately where ineffective in realizing the outcome they desired. So in fairness, neither side should count their chickens yet but at least in SL, we, the citizens, get a vote!

Oodka, I'm glad our boys in Hargeisa saw the light(albeit late, but better late than never). It would be political suicide to attend the London shir as it now stands(meaning the agenda of the shir, with cohosting by the SFG). We would be in the same weakened position as the 'pirates' nipping at the corners. Interestingly, the same Prof. Weinstein that the Garowe boys use to parade certain political perceptions recently penned another piece dissecting the extremely weakened state the 'pirates' are in, given the 'diplomatic' cards given to Hassan Sheikh by the international community. Needless to say, that opinion piece did not make it on to 'GaroweOnline.com'

Xiin, you make it too easy, sxb. Just carefully read before you post(friendly advice). I know the rash of fake SL stories is covering a bruised ego regarding happenings in other areas but that's politics, sxb - a cruel game. Iska adkeyso! We'll be back soon to update you further on the real direction things are turning(in particular in Kismayo...LOL). Then you can run and share it at the local Cafe Calaacal. It's all good....

Just make sure you don't contradict yourself again before posting a news story you haven't fully read yet http://www.somaliaonline.com/community/showthread.php/70217-Ethiopia-Somalia-relations-worsen-as-Ethiopia-threatens-to-withdraw-its-troops-from-Somalia.?p=928435#post928435

There's a good reason for that. These stories(nutcase Sheikh and captured reporters) are complete fabrications of politically frustrated 'pirate' web portals: while the Kismayo story is real! That's the glaring difference. Let's see where the latest caravan(Kismayo Cade Caravan) goes Insha'Allah, Kheyr!

This story seems to have legs. Even Shabelle Media is reporting it now. Given that the Fed Gov't is prosecuting reporters for printing fake stories(the saga with the alleged rape&the international outcry), would Shabelle Media with a large Mogadishu presence take that chance? ______________________________________________________ Moderate Islamists say Somali soldiers passing arms to Al-Shabab 19 March 2013 BBC Monitoring Africa © 2013 The British Broadcasting Corporation. All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced except with the express permission of The British Broadcasting Corporation. Text of report by privately-owned Somali Shabeelle Media Network website The Deputy Chairman of the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a Executive Council, Shaykh Ahmad Abdullahi Ilkacase has said senior armed forces commanders that work with the Al-Shabab Movement are passing on government arms to the group. Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a official said Al-Shabab has become bold to the extent that they have managed to gain access to arms being stored in Somali presidency's armoury. The Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma'a official has also condemned yesterday's suicide attack near Ex-Fiyore area in which up to 10 people were killed and a similar number wounded. He said Al-Shabab defectors easily trusted by the government are responsible for the explosion attacks in Mogadishu. The statement by the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama'a official comes at a time when arms were recently stolen from the Somali government armoury. Source: Shabeelle Media Network website, Mogadishu, in Somali 19 Mar 13

Hence the threat or decision (whichever it is) to pull out of Bay and Bakool. This would leave the whole stabilization/de-Shababization of South Central Somalia hanging in the wind... Let's see how this plays out in the coming weeks...

After Uhuru Comes Diplomatic Trouble [opinion] by Daniel Berhane 19 March 2013 Mar 19, 2013 (Addis Fortune) -- Last week saw the election of Uhuru Kenyatta as President of Kenya, one of the biggest economies in Eastern Africa. Most Ethiopians, however, are more familiar with his rival Raila Odinga, as part of the 2007 Kenyan presidential elections and the ensuing violence that saw him instated as Prime Minister. Of course, arguably, Odinga became a household name after a computer virus, named after him, destroyed Microsoft Word files, including Amharic files, irreparably, until the deployment of an effective anti-virus that made the Information Network Security Agency (INSA) famous. For Ethiopians, who barely follow regional politics, the 2007 Kenyan election caught their attention, as it seemed like a deja vu of the vote rigging claims and violence that marred their election two years earlier. Some individuals within the Ethiopian political opposition envied the Kenyan process, as the opposition candidate, Odinga, managed to squeeze a prime ministerial job from his rival, President Mwai Kibaki. They even went as far as lashing out at their own supporters for not being as firm as the Kenyans - athough the price tag was the death of, by conservative estimates, more than 1,000 Kenyans and the displacement of half a million more. Prominent opposition leaders publicly criticised the senior United States officials engaged in shuttle diplomacy to broker a deal among the Kenyan rivals, while quiet diplomacy was employed in the case of Ethiopia. Predictably, the level of Western involvement and perceived bias towards Odinga did not go down well with those in Addis Abeba. Even the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi asked visiting United States officials to be firm with Odinga and "not to encourage" him. Meles did not like the precedent that it established, it appears, besides whatever objective assessment he might have made. That is no secret to Odinga, who had never been to Addis as Prime Minister. The grudge he held might be what prompted his preposterous claim last August, during Meles' last days, that he is "very concerned about developments in Ethiopia, knowing how fragile the politics are there". Odinga's unfriendly remark has, however, roots deeper than a personal grudge. That is the short-sighted regional outlook of much of the Kenyan media and political elite. As the very diplomatic description on the Ethiopian Foreign Policy document states, "some Kenyans, who are still stuck on dependency, worry when neighbouring countries make economic progress and experience peace and democracy, thinking that Kenya may lose both the prominence in the eyes of aid donors, and the advantages she has enjoyed for many years." "This leads them to view stability in neighbouring countries as contrary to their interest, and hence, to view the emerging situation with suspicion and some degree of envy." I would add, fortunately, that they do not have the resources to actively pursue such wishes. This mentality is not a small matter.Kenya's share out of American economic assistance is 2.5 times higher than Ethiopia, in per capita terms, according to the February 2011 budget document by the White House. The same year, its military received 33pc higher assistance from the Pentagon than its Ethiopian counterparts, though the Western media expresses the contrary to its readers. Not to forget,Kenya is often portrayed to Western investors as a stable country, some even say "regional stabiliser", despite the fact that its capital was bombed every other week by Al-Shabaab operatives, as a consequence of its year-long endeavour to capture a marginal 120Km piece of Somalian territory, near its border. Of course,Kenya's status as the West's darling came with an opportunity cost. As a Kenyan analyst remarked a few years ago, "it baffles many African observers just how condescending the relationship between Nairobi and Washington is, when they see American presidents lecture Kenyan presidents on how to govern their subjects". But, the Kenyan elite did not seem to mind it much, if comments by their political elite and the headlines of their newspapers are reliable indicators. That must have emboldened the West to the extent of telling Kenyans whom to vote for President. While Obama took the liberty, last month, to give them a televised lecture about elections, other officials, from the United Kingdom,France and Sweden, were more straightforward. In an election where Odinga and Kenyatta were the forerunners, they warned against voting for Kenyatta, as he has been indicted for the 2007 post-election violence by the International Criminal Court (ICC), which curiously skipped Kibaki and Odinga. The Western diplomats defiantly continued warning against voting for Kenyatta, even after the Foreign Ministry demanded them to stop meddling in the internal affairs of Kenya. Something a diplomat in Addis could only dream of doing. In spite of, and partly because of, the Westerners' meddling, Kenyatta secured the job last week. American and European media and officials are contemplating their next move. But, their failure to send a congratulatory note to Kenyatta indicates their relationships will be tough. What does this mean for Ethiopia? The relations between Addis and Nairobi would not have been affected if Odinga was President. Officials in Addis downplay his past remark, citing his public support for the Gil Gel Gibe-III dam, which is opposed by Kenyan civil society groups and their Western patrons, who together prefer him. Kenyatta's Presidency, however, is a dubious one. On one hand, he entails a status quo power, given his affiliation with the ruling party and the personalities that have ruled Kenya since its independence. However, as part of his successful electoral manoeuvre to use the ICC's case and Westerners' opposition for his benefit, he stepped-up a rather nationalist rhetoric. It is to be seen if that will translate into an aggressive position in talks with Ethiopian officials, for example, on tribal border clashes, where Ethiopian militias are often accused by Kenyan newspapers of crossing the border at a whim. President Kenyatta will likely be a strong ally in strengthening regional institutions, like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union (AU), which could serve as his insurance, if push comes to shove with the ICC. A more certain impact of the election last week is not what Kenyatta may or may not do. Each day he spends in office is a reminder to Western diplomats and journalists that their influence is not welcome all the time, even in a country they see as their own backyard. Bashing Westerners has already become commonplace in many Kenyan newspapers, as well as on discussion forums of foreign websites, which portray the new President as a "war criminal" and the Kenyan political system as a "messy affair". One would hope, in the years to come, that there will be fewer and fewer Westerners who take offence at their treatment in Addis Ababa, when comparing it to that of their colleagues in Nairobi.

It's financial, Che. Read the AFP article Xiin posted (which coincidentally contradicts the points he's arguing..LOL). The article refers to the disbelieve among AMISOM & the IC that the Ethiopians are actually withdrawing. So whether the Ethiopians are truly withdrawing or simply bluffing to get the attention of the IC/West, the issue comes down to funds! Quotes from the article: "The Ethiopians have been talking for quite a while of how much they want to leave...so far it was seen more as a posture," said a source close to AMISOM, adding they were frustrated at how much the military operation was costing. I think poor Xiin didn't even read his own article when arguing against the 'financial' angle.

Oodka, Hassan Sheikh has quite a few aces up his sleeve that the pirates are still unaware of. That's why it's best for us to sit this one out (in terms of currently attending the London Conference). Let's just say, currently, the stars are well alligned for him He's got some adept foreign and Somali advisors that are proving quite skilled at playing the Western need for the Somali problem to be resolved in order to move on to bigger agendas in the region. I won't go further than that given your ability to read between the lines.... And not wanting to further educate our 'in-house pirates'

Oodka, sxb, don't go too far

Xiin, Does that mean you wouldn't welcome me to your family home in Kismayo for a visit once the local situation is squared away? So much for Somaliweyn....