Oodweyne's predictive analysis at work again.

Careful Oodweyne, Pretty soon you'll hear cries of "Why are the Northerners discussing Kismayo? Why are they even in this thread?" All I can say about this situation is: You told them so in advance, but they wouldn't listen.....

Mintid Farayar;931012 wrote: Xiin, I asked you earlier(some days back) where the Speaker, Jawaari, stood on the issue. This is relevant since it will ultimately be the Federal Parliament that has to approve the future regions(according to the current constitution). Care to answer this time? P.S. if you think there's no clannish element to the situation then you're more delusional than I thought. All I hear is crickets whenever I ask this question;) What happened to our loquacious/verbose Xiin??

Xaaji Xunjuf;931024 wrote: Dont be surprised salax this is very normal in the garowe clan enclave this is part of the pirate culture in that region. Xaaji, It seems Xiin agrees with you in the normality of this situation in an earlier comment. xiinfaniin;930975 wrote: ^^LOL Armed robbery warrants Mintid political analysis You should not be that desperate to see Puntland fall. It faces more lethal threat from Alshabaab than this one-off day light robbery of Kaah It's actually quite elementary: If you don't pay the salaries of the security militias, there's no security. Very simple equation..... Sensei, AUN for the dead victims...

First of all, it seems to be a civil society group(Guddida Baadhista Xasuuqa Taliskii Siyaad Barre kula kacay ummadda reer Somaliland) that's making this request, not the gov't of SL. Secondly, if it is a political move, it's a brilliant one. Kind of limits the scope of maneuver for those(in SL) who would like a confederation/federation with Somalia by giving a stark reminder of where the last union led. Thirdly, I fail to see all the emotion in certain corners when the SL 'xasuuq' is mentioned. If you weren't party to it(nor your family), there's no reason to get worked up over it. If you're hiding some certified 'war-criminals' in the family closet........, then that's another story

Xiin, I asked you earlier(some days back) where the Speaker, Jawaari, stood on the issue. This is relevant since it will ultimately be the Federal Parliament that has to approve the future regions(according to the current constitution). Care to answer this time? P.S. if you think there's no clannish element to the situation then you're more delusional than I thought.

It seems Oodweyne's analysis of the two positions was spot on. Even GaroweOnline is reporting the current storyline... _______________________________________________ PM Visits Kismayo, Talks Hit a Wall 27 March 2013 Kismayo, Mar 27, 2013 (Garowe Online/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) -- Sources in Kismayo tell GO that talks between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and the interim administration in Kismayo hit a deadlock, Garowe Online reports. A SFG delegation that included members of the federal parliament and Minister of Defense Abdihakim Haji Mohamud Fiqi and Minister of Interior Abdikarim Hussein Guled arrived in Kismayo on Sunday and met with interim administration leader Sheikh Ahmed Madoobe. Following several appeals by Jubaland residents for the SFG participate in the process, the SFG delegation visited Kismayo to revive the lifeless talks between the two sides on how to proceed with the Jubaland state conference. Sources say that talks hit a roadblock when the SFG delegation proposed that they select provisional regional administrations for Gedo, Lower and Middle Jubba. The same request was made during Minister Guled and Minister Fiqi's February visit to Kismayo. The SFG request was rejected again by Sheikh Madoobe and the interim administration who have been engaged in a state building process that includes over 400 constituents. Following a delay, Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon arrived in Kismayo on Tuesday to a large welcome. After briefly speaking to media, Shirdon met privately with officials. Sources tell GO he proposed the same initiative as the SFG delegation however was turned down. The talks have not broken down and will continue on Tuesday. MPs from the region requested that Prime Minister Shirdon and the SFG take into consideration the Provisional Federal Constitution and the needs of Jubaland residents, and support the Jubaland state process. The officials will continue to meet on Wednesday and will release a statement on the meetings in the coming days. GAROWE ONLINE

Ever helpful to my brothers down South, I thought I would add this update to the situation: _____________________________________________________________ Talks on southern Somalia administration deadlocked 27 March 2013 BBC Monitoring Newsfile © 2013 The British Broadcasting Corporation. All Rights Reserved. No material may be reproduced except with the express permission of The British Broadcasting Corporation. Talks on the creation of administrations for southern Somalia's Jubbaland regions are said to have hit a deadlock after conflicting demands were tabled by the Somali Federal Government and the interim administration led by the leader of pro-government militia in Kismaayo, reports privately-owned Shabelle website on 27 March. Somalia's premier and leader of Raas Kaamboni militia are reportedly meeting in Towfiiq hotel in the southern port town of Kismaayo. Raas Kaamboni leader Ahmad Madoobe, together with officials of the interim administration for the region, have proposed that the Somali Federal Government allow local residents to establish their own administration and agree to be hosted as guests in a summit for Jubbaland administrations. On the other hand, Somalia's Premier Farah Shirdoon alongside his delegation propose that the interim administration allow government to steer the process of creating administrations for Jubba regions as they are currently establishing interim leaderships for regions in southern Somalia. Advocates representing Ahmad Madoobe argue that related articles in the constitution are erroneous. Amisom officials, AU representatives are reportedly in attendance at the meeting which is said to have hit a deadlock as both parties have failed to find a middle ground. Source: Shabeelle Media Network website, Mogadishu, in Somali 27 Mar 13

xiinfaniin;930981 wrote: ^^You did not answer the question. By the way, xiinfaniin did not say Somaliland will attend. Unlike you, he is not ruling out the possibility of that happening. LOOOOL ;) Further proof that you get irrational on all things Mintid-related Priceless... Ku noqo my answer above one more time and you might find the answer to your question this time(if we're lucky).

Currently, I have no idea whether they will attend or not. For you see, Xiin, unlike you, I'm well aware of the limitations of what I do know & what I don't know. However, I've made it clear that I agree with the current SL position that the London Conference as it now stands doesn't concern SL. This is the pressure point(no matter how small - matter of opinion, actually) that SL currently has to exercise. For there are many, Somali and non-Somali, that see SL's attendance as giving that veneer of legitimacy to all things Somali. For you know, and the rest of the world sees that Somaliland is the only thing in the former Somalia that actually works!.

Meanwhile, as I've pointed out numerous times, the security situation continues its ongoing deterioration in Puntland. This is often attributed to the Faroole admin's inability to pay the security services in critical cities within Puntland(the Garowe presidential contingent is paid for obvious reasons). Latest event: ________________________________________________ Kooxo hubeysan oo dhac u geystay Xarunta Shirkadda Xawaaladda KAAH ay ku leedahay Magaalada Boosaaso Arbaco, Maarso 27, 2013 (HOL) — Kooxo hubeysan oo ka kooban shan qof ayaa dhac u geystay baqonimadii maanta xarunta shirkadda xawaaladda Kaah ay ku leedahay magaalada Boosaaso ee xarunta gobolka Bari, iyadoo lagu dilay halkaas maamulkii xaruntaas iyo mid ka mid ah waardiyeyaasha. Goobjoogayaal ayaa sheegay in kooxaha dhaca geysanayay ay sidoo kale dhaawaceen laba ka mid ah shaqaalihii shirkadda,iyadoo la sheegay in lab ka mid ah kooxihii dhaca geystay ay xirnaayeen dharka ciidamada Puntland. Dhaca kaddib ayay kooxaha hubeysani goobta ka baxsadeen, iyadoo aan la ogeyn lacagta ay dhaceen inta ay le’eg tahay, waxaase falkan uu noqonayaa kii ugu horreeyay noociisa oo ka dhaca magaalada Boosaaso. “Ciidamada booliiska ayaa goobta soo gaaray shirkaddii dhaca loo geystay waxayna halkaas ka qaadeen labadii qof ee dhaawaca ahaa oo ay geeyeen isbitaalka guud ee Boosaaso,” ayuu yiri goobjooge halkaas ku sugnaa. Sidoo kale, ruux goobjooge ah ayaa isaguna sheegay inuu arkay dhiig badan oo goobta daadsan, wuxuuna wixii uu arkay ku sifeeyay arrin naxdin leh oo aan horay uga dhicin degmadaas. Maamulka Puntland weli kama hadlin falkan, iyadoo aan la ogeyn kooxaha dhaca geystay ciddii ay ka tirsanaayeen iyo halka ay aadeen, iyadoo ay ku soo beegmayso tani xilli maamulka Puntland uu muddo hal sano xil kororsi sameystay. Maxamed Xaaji Xuseen, Hiiraan Online maxuseen@hiiraan.com Muqdisho, Soomaaliya

But I've made no predictions on whether SL will attend or not(London Conference) Simply stated where I, personally, stood on the current situation - see the difference? Xiin, you seem to be suffering from the same problem as Baashi(which he at least admitted to/corrected in another thread). When you can't pin Mintid on his argument, you tend to create fictional arguments for Mintid. Come on, sxb, that's not fair We're all grown men here.....

xiinfaniin;930957 wrote: ^^Except I am bit more informed than you think. No such plans are in the works. Puntland is not Sweden. It is a peaceful enclave that is increasingly under alshabab threat. On the fight against alshabaab, and piracy Faroole has exceeded the expectation. On the IC's plan to revive Somalia, he has done an excellent job. On the democratization process, things has gone his way (if you are in the know). MIDNIMO, the only party that can challenge him, will take time to take off, and it is decidedly an ICTIZAM off shoot. So not sure what you are basing your prediction on for an election that is only 45 days away. Xiin, You tend to fly off the handle in all things Mintid-related Ku yaro noqo my previous post - Where do you see a prediction?? Digest the point before flying to the keyboard...

So far your track record with your 'crystal ball' has shown a lot of room for improvement. I do appreciate GaroweOnline's analysis linking of the Somaliland-Somalia talks inconclusiveness to a 'Puntland-centric' reason. Classic _________________________________________________________ Somaliland: "Ma jiro qorshe kulan Dubai" 26 Maarso, 2013, 16:30 GMT 19:30 SGA Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibedda ee Somaliland, Maxamed Cabdullaahi Cumar ayaa sheegay in aanu jirin wax qorshe ah oo ku saabsan kulan dhexmara Madaxweynaha Somaliland iyo Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya. Wasiirka ayaa ka jawaabayay warar sheegayay inay suurtagal tahay in labada dhinac ee Somaliland iyo Soomaaliya ay ku kulmaan magaalada Dubai, kadib marka Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya uu ka soo laabto magaalada Dooxa ee dalka Qadar oo uu kaga qeybgalayo shirka dalalka Carabta. Maxamed Cabdullaahi Cumar Waxa uu sheegay in dalka Imaaraadka ay u tageen casuummad ay ka heleen masuuliyiinta dowladda Imaaraadka Carabta. Laakiin wasiirku waxa uu ku celceliyay inay diyaar u yihiin wada hadalka Soomaaliya, balse aanay ka soo qeyb geli doonin shirka London ee bisha May. http://www.bbc.co.uk/somali/maqal_iyo_muuqaal/2013/03/130326_somaliland_wasiirka_dibedda.shtml

xiinfaniin;930954 wrote: ^^No Do we need to , Mintid. Given all the challenges facing him, Faroole is doing a fine job in Puntland. That is an impartial judgement. Impartial, you say I highly recommend you do. You might learn a thing or two re:the American support for civil society democratization of Puntland. They're not fans of the man(Faroole) or his style. This is seen as a means of easing him out the door in a legal, non-violent way. Many of your kin are on board, involved in active discussions with the Embassy on this project. Whether it works or not is another story. After all, we all saw were the U.S. and U.K. stood on their choice for a winner in Kenya, and what the actual outcome turned out to be. You see all the freebies I throw your way

Xiin, Have you read the comprehensive Wikileaks cables on Somalia(in particular on Puntland, in the period since Faroole came to power)?

Welcome back, Xiin. Read the posts of the past few days on the subject(a number of threads) and it will all make sense to you. The nuance will be clear once you've done your homework.

Fiqikhayre;930533 wrote: He furthermore underlined this important message: 'It is important that the upcoming local elections parliamentary election and then indirect election of the President be free, fair transparent and on time so that process can reach a positive conclusion.' So it will be a British-style parliamentary system where the President is not elected directly but rather by local parliamentarians. Interesting. I wonder why that was chosen.

Somaliland: "Ma jiro qorshe kulan Dubai" 26 Maarso, 2013, 16:30 GMT 19:30 SGA Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibedda ee Somaliland, Maxamed Cabdullaahi Cumar ayaa sheegay in aanu jirin wax qorshe ah oo ku saabsan kulan dhexmara Madaxweynaha Somaliland iyo Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya. Wasiirka ayaa ka jawaabayay warar sheegayay inay suurtagal tahay in labada dhinac ee Somaliland iyo Soomaaliya ay ku kulmaan magaalada Dubai, kadib marka Madaxweynaha Soomaaliya uu ka soo laabto magaalada Dooxa ee dalka Qadar oo uu kaga qeybgalayo shirka dalalka Carabta. Maxamed Cabdullaahi Cumar Waxa uu sheegay in dalka Imaaraadka ay u tageen casuummad ay ka heleen masuuliyiinta dowladda Imaaraadka Carabta. Laakiin wasiirku waxa uu ku celceliyay inay diyaar u yihiin wada hadalka Soomaaliya, balse aanay ka soo qeyb geli doonin shirka London ee bisha May. http://www.bbc.co.uk/somali/maqal_iyo_muuqaal/2013/03/130326_somaliland_wasiirka_dibedda.shtml

Carafaat;930867 wrote: Walee, kuwan reer Somaliland waxba kama fahmaan siyasada koonfuurta. War some folks are nervous as hell Somaliland and Somalia reach a deal(irrelevent of the outcome). And what our friend Baashi does here, is display a false sense of confidence(a bluf) hoping to make folks nervous in order to get a goof look at ones cards and raise the expectations for Hasan Sheick ine one. Nothing can be said till we know the actual outcome of these folks. Carafaat, Thanks for clearing that up! It's sometimes hard to understood where some of our brothers' argument is leading. Often times, it just seems a circular argument leading to no logical conclusion outside of the usual posturing practiced in certain 'cafes'. I forgot the 'bluff' factor in the equation. Toss it up to my 'Northern dacaadnimo' Now let's get back to the subject of this thread....

The Sage;930743 wrote: Considering the importance of lobbying and advocacy in the realm of international affairs, having the services of a group such as this would be an advisable investment for the Somaliland government. At $22,000/month , it would amount to $264,000/year which is only 0.15% of SL's $174,000,000 USD budget. A good investment for advancing the interests of Somaliland, increasing it's visibility, and engaging with key influential nations. A little late in the game, but better late than never. This same move was suggested to Egal during his trip to the U.S. in 1999 but to no avail. Once again, it was strongly suggested to Rayaale for the next 8+ yrs but still no movement. Well, it seems Siilaanyo & co. saw the light. Interestingly enough, the news bulletin mentions it was the Ministry of Presidential Affairs that hired the firm, not the Foreign Ministry. Xirsi's learning fast

Baashi;930558 wrote: Mintod boowe you are talking the victim mentality to a different level. Your analogy is not appropriate to the discussion we're having here The fact that your kin sees a different and better outcome for SL residents if they bargain with Mogadishu is very telling and relevant to this discussion. What that means is there are Duriyada folks who all along wanted a rational and consistent policy toward re-integration with the rest of Somalia. Reasonable folks who knew all along that reality on the ground in the enclave and the status of the state is an obstacle to wey duushay make belief world. Again Wax la waayey geeloow ninkii waalan baw duda ! Sorry, gentlemen, duty pulled me away from this discussion for some hours. Anyway, I see quite a few having some fun in my absence Baashi, Sxb, I assumed you had more of an argument than that. Parading a few friends 'of the kin' who lean Somaliweyn will not bring SL back to the fold. If that was the case, far more prominent personalities 'from the kin' preceded them and have little to show for it, up to today. Others(Ngonge, Oodweyne, & co.) have chimed in and presented to you the core fundamentals the SL concept is underpinned by today. Yet you accuse others of being fantasists when it is you who keeps stating 'It doesn't work, won't work, and will never work' without presenting any iota of concrete proof to buttress that argument. We fleshed out for you 'why it does work and will work!', yet your only retorts have been of 2 varieties thus far: 1) I, Baashi, have SL friends and they're rational unlike you; and are able to see the inevitability of Somaliweyn 2) When the Mogadishu gov't becomes a 'strong, super-state', it will economically starve you guys through its internationally-recognized jurisdictional authority Well, what I can say....

Baashi;930521 wrote: ^ That's the spirit. The linebacker goes for a tackle again Awoowe if you are telling us that there is no clannish partisanship within Habraha we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and verify if that is the case I have friends from that neck of the wood here and they say blessed his heart when they read spirited defense you put up on this board Awoowe folks from that neck of the wood call him Dhiigshiil. It's not a deragatory name and its his real nickname. But I see your gymnastics as a distraction from the issue at hand. As to challenging government on Jubba bordering contradiction oh boy! bless your heart as one of my friend fond of saying War heedhe Jubba supporters are loyal citizens of the SFR. They want to implement a federal provision in the draft constitution for legitimate reasons. You are being disingenuous in equating the two issues. There is no contradiction in supporting the implementation of SFR constitution and opposing dismembering Somalia on now defunct colonial legacy grounds You sound like the old Southern bigot(U.S.-based analogy, for the non-N.American crowd) who regularly clings to the disclaimer that he has lots of 'Black' friends Who you're sitting with or used to sit with is irrelevant to the argument. My argument is not based on a similarity between SL and the 'yet to even get-off the ground' Jubba project. I see no similarity nor equality between the two. I was pointing out your attempts to present an image of a resurgent, re-emerging central power in Somalia to which SL would be bound to legally, financially, etc. I simply pointed out that if you truly believed that, you wouldn't attempt to challenge it through the Jubba project which Mogadishu explicitly opposed from the beginning. Do you see the contradiction?

Baashi, But that's not what you said or implied, sxb. But we do appreciate the 'clean-up' of the argument. It's one thing for politicians to jockey for position in their individual quests for the ultimate seat within the SL political system. But it's totally another for 'Habar vs. Habar misunderstanding to get out of hand' as you put it earlier. Your intentions are clear. From your references to 'Dhiigshiil'(as you labelled the brand) to various other little tell-tale signs. You oppose SL, we get it. All we ask is that you desist from the revisionist history which has only led to 22 yrs of disappointment for those wishing similar outcomes. As for pressure on the SL business class, you're once again counting your chickens before they're hatched. SL commerce has faced this same quandary for the last 22 yrs and still managed to grow and maintain the largest business entities(with the exception of the defunct Barakaat) in the former Somalia - business conglomerates that tend to dominate not only in SL but in significant portions of Southern Somalia. Nothing has changed. I fear you've misread a symbolic recognition from Washington(given as a means for Washington to implement its next phase in the war on Al Shabaab) as a real, tangible power-consolidation towards Mogadishu. You're dead wrong on that account. For if Mogadishu was so dominant currently in its ability to exercise power, you wouldn't be attempting to oppose it with the Jubbaland project. But you know that to be far from the reality, hence the contradiction in your analysis. Alas, this phase of the game is only just beginning. Once again, it's a little too early for the chicken-counting...

Baashi, 1)What are the options for the architects of the Jubba project if the PM opposes(once again) the current 'shir' and state-creation process? 2)What is it that the central gov't fears/sees in this Jubba formation? Is it as simple as clan-based opposition or a devolution of executive power away from the center(Mogadishu)?