Despite bad health, last night I hosted Nuune and Jacaylbaro in my house. It was a great pleasure to have the two gentlemen of SOL at once. Nuune looked much thinner, taller and younger than I thought. JB is MC Hammer! Soo dhawaada jaalayaaloow!

Xaaji Xunjuf;961705 wrote: Legally hassan is in charge but practically faroole is in charge of the garowe clan enclave, and Ahmed madobe rules kismayo with the help of the Kenyans. If hassan manages to get rid of the Kenyans in a political way and he sorts out some kind of deal with madoobe, and hassan gains territorial control in the jubba regions. He can build an entity from Galkacyo to the Kenyan border with strong governmental institutions. He can later create federal states in those regions , but first there must be a government in charge of the country. Faroole should remain an autonomous leader for now until the federalism issue is brought up by the Parliament again. Right now yaa federaal ah no one knows. Very, very good advice. Waa talo aad u fiican. Laakin waxay ku haboonayd inaad ku hagaajiso madaxda Somaliland, waayo iyaga ayey anfacysaa taladani. Hadii Soomalida koonfur raacdo taladan, waa tay isku gawrici lahayd, adiguna taasaad rabtaa.

It is not a matter of choice...it is a matter of necessity. The center should focus on getting itself some muscles by way of money and offering the goodies to regional elites...then it can attract people from other regions and gradually will manage to regain some control. it cannot get control through decrees. that is not how it works. The center must accept that the regions will wield significant powers anyway. The strong central state is gone...and whatever hope that was there is now lost by the actions of Hassan. Dib ayaa loo diday.Ilama aha in muddo dhow regions ku awood badan ku aaminayaan Muqdisho. To your question, I consider Faroole crazy. So, there can only be a progress with PL when he is no longer there. But that does not mean the center will get someone who will allow it to dominate PL politics. It should pray it gets a sensible person who understands what powers are to be had by the Federal government and what by the regions. As we stand, Faroole doesn't understand. After we solve the PL situation, it is TOLKA time...SL. Meeshaas iyada the key is Habar ...habar in loo soo furfuro. Hadii kale la helo a pragmatic SL leadership that agrees the claim that there is still British SL and Italian SL is wrong. the 4.5 clan formula ruined that.

This is a fake document. Even the most transparent tribalist Somali usually covers himself with good words such as "wax dad kale anagu ma rabno, waxaan xaq u leenahay unban rabnaa", or "cidna inaan dulmino uma socono..." so, the most clannish HAG could not have penned this. This is done by a HAG imposter...who is probably a Pirate SAHAL.

My take simple. And has been from day one. According to the constitution, regional states will be formalized once the relevant laws are enacted. Now, I know this may not apply for those that existed before the FG was formed and were signatories of the Garowe agreement. Although I expect even these may be affected at some stage as the border commission starts its work. However, Jubbaland waa la isku haystaa oo you say it was before the FG was formed; someone else is saying it is not. Even worse, there is an active conflict (while I agree Mogadishu has a role in fanning it) nonetheless shows that some clans feel Ahmed Madoobe has imposed himself. So, the Jubbaland saga is not over. Yet, we also know the FG has no real power to enforce any law or outcome of 'reconciliation' meetings it holds in Mogadishu. At best, it can foment another 'baasto' or 'bariis' and will cause damage to Ahmed Madoobe but it cannot really do much in the next year or so. Now, in order to avoid this scenario, my recommendation has always been: 1) accept an Interim Jubbaland State for 2 years (as is now) and try to manage the power-share to ensure 'peaceful' clans get their share, even within current arrangement. The O and revolution clan took a disproportionate share just because they have more guns and this is not fair. 2) in the meantime, make sure the laws are finalized and a thorough assessment is done in 2 years time. Here, the outcome could be to endorse Jubbaland as it is; or to alter it (based on the will of every district...) dadku meeshay raacaan iyagoo sida hada aan dagaal ku dhex jirin ha doortaan 3) This rule should apply to Himan iyo Heeb or every other Mareegland or Abtigiisland that succeds in administering itself peacefully and openly declares that it is part of the Federal State of Somalia. My hope is in 2-3 years time, the federal government will be in a better position financially, diplomatically and economically; and the wounds and mistrust would have healed somehow; and that it therefore will be easier to implement the Formation of the regional States. for a country that is emerging from 22 years of ruin, a weak center and many fiefdoms is an inescapable reality! The challenge is to make this reality as brief as it can. Not to prevent it from the outset!

waxaasba kama hadlin...anigu. I am saying I did not take this move as positive because unlike what you say, which is what you like or prefer, this law APPLIES to Jubbaland. It is only you who is saying Jubbaland is a reality. President Hassan and Saciid are not saying that. Till this morning, Saacid and Xassan's position were crystal clear. To say they do not want this jubbaland thing is an understatement. For me, I am not necessarily against their position, but I think it will not help peace in the short term. Awoowe, dee nin maskax badan baan kugu ogaaye kaadir ha nagu noqon oo halku-dhig yadan "Jubbaland is a fact" inaga jooji. Ileen Kaadir kaa la yidhaa "carrab mooye madax ma lahee..." (a cadre has tongue but not head) ayey xabashidu tidhaa. Adigu Diktoor baad aheyde sida Carafaat oo kale don't read too much into every Press Release.

I don't think so. I think Norf does not know all the details about this conflict. I think both sides have entrenched positions and the rushing of this law is not what will solve the problem. As Rashid Abdi commented this matter needs a political solution. if you are ready for a political solution and compromise, why rush the law? At any rate, it is not like a committee nominated next month will have the time or the powers to recommend anything. They need to do a thorough assessment in all districts and they need to consult all clans and communities. As things stand now, genuine consultation is not POSIIBLE in the Jubbas when power is with those who have the barrel of the gun. So, I don't think the intention is to do what NORF is suggesting. If it is, it is still unfair. For it is too early to accept Jubbaland as a permanent Regional State. At best, it needs to be given an "INTERIM" Regional Status, until conditions are favourable to do an intention survey on the ground. This move, to me, therefore is not a sign of a good thing to come. It is a sign of problems ahead. One can argue I am needlessly worried and the FGS is doing what it should do anyway, and the enactment of this law now is just a coincidence. p.s. Xinn, you are VERY wrong in your assumptions. Will revert to say "told you so" in few days or weeks time. Speak from the point of information not from point of conjecture in these kinds of issues. And I think I have better information (again with the risk of inviting attacks on me for saying so".

I don't know where Xinn's optimism is coming from. As if the Kismaayo conflict is a constitutional one! This law is rushed. Naturally, it will not solve the current problem. I fear it may even become a problem in the short run. They rather would have waited a bit longer until trust is back, or until the Federal Government is in a position to enforce this law should people like Ahmed Madoobe refuse to back down. Hada sida xaaladu u muuqato waa uun sharci looga hortagayo sheekada ah 'shuruucdii Federal ka lagu dhisi lahaa ma qeexnee, maamul goboleed ayaan intaa sii ahaanaynaa". May or may not work. But the key thing is to wait and see the commissioners. We all know Somalis judge things when they see faces.

The Government has not yet nominated a Governor. So, it should also come out and say this is unconstitutional. hadii kale, SAHAL will feel vindicated. I know these guys are not saying they are a STATE, but still they cannot elect local leaders before the governor is put in place. So says the Government.

For the benefits of Burahadeer et al, The system works like this in Ethiopia: (1) There is a federal government which has road authority, civil aviation and airport construction, establishment of education and health institutions; (2) There is a regional government which constructs schools, colleges, small roads etc. The Federal Government gives the Somali region about 300 million USD per year. The region is expected to raise revenue through taxes but unlike Oromia, which subsidizes other regions, Somali region is actually subsidized let alone to contribute to the national coffers. The Federal government expects the 300 million managed by the Regional State to be used for socio-economic services and MAINLY for SECURITY (which consumes about 60-65% of it). But the Federal Government also not only finances but DIRECTLY implements some big projects. Now, all of the projects you see on youtube, the Jigjiga airport, the jigiiga-Gode tarmac road, the Jigjiga University, the Gode irrigation project etc in Jigjiga are not those that are built by the regional state, it is the projects financed and DIRECTLY implemented by the Federal Government through contractors hired by the Federal Government. We see the result! What did the 300 million per year achieve? SHOW us. Of course, current expenditure pays meager salary to tens of thousands of civil servants; but where is the rest? To be fair, there are schools and other services that every now and then are added by the region, but the region's money is consumed by Iley's small clique and the security sector (generals in Harar, Tigre god-fathers in Addis, intelligence in Jijiga and the zones and districts). Intii soo hadhana, Universal TV, iyo Diaspora! Wakaa warku. In the meantime, it is unfair we compare ourselves to stateless Somalia or its offspring. We compare ourselves to Oromia and Harari and Southern Nations, and we are far, far behind by all measures. Waxaa noo sii dheere dagaal iyo cadaadis. So, all we are asking is for those resources given in OUR name to be channeled through leaders we ELECT ourselves. Hadii aanu cunana, dee hadaba askar Tigre ah oo Gabre iyo Colonel Atsbeha ayaa cuna. We are sure we will not put custodians worse than Iley at the helm. If the Tigre's accept that, no one would have looked at ONLF or supported it. Ma isfahanay?

Cambuulo iyo bun;961447 wrote: ....fernando torres is an emotional qabiiliste from puntland cool: No, he is NOT! Fernando Torres is a world class Spanish striker, who is now in the twilight of this career. :D

Looking at the smiling President, I have now come to believe that the President's smiles are not based on funny things he saw or heard. Why? because the young Minister, Abdulfatah Sh. Abdullahi Yare, is a very close friend of mine and my college-mate. Abdulfatah is polished, suave and kind-hearted; but I don't think he is the kind of person who finds humours words that easily. Unless, he has changed and found a new sense of humour...in the last 6 years. So, I am sure the President's smiles are automated. looo@gooni...talaabo-dheera go'dka lala ekeeysiinayaa! :D

Well, art offends...but it is also entertaining. A day or so after HAG issued a song on Kismaayo, the youtube showdown is heating up. This coming on top of all the vitriol on the media and mainly on websites reeks of the fetid history of the bloody decade of 90s. Here is Hibaq's song.... And an anonymous SAHAL singer - by the name Fernando Torres hits back with "Tashan waydee waa laguu talin...tooyooy". Allow sahal. You know what is worrying? It is that these singers actually represent the thinking of the majority of the people from the rival clans in Somalia's duopolistic politics.

Speaking of songs, this is just out. It is by a SAHAL Fernando Torres ( that is the name I see) :D "Tashan waydee, waa laguu talin tooyooy"

That is not the gist of the story, Xinny. The gist is Saleebaan's intriguing ingenuity in finding infinite number of holes to wrongfoot enemies. It is about the fate of the perennial wayfarer who is now in the same hole with Saleeban.

I disagree. The Economist article is about the whole of Somalia, the other one about Kismaayo only. So, you cannot expect the same details in the two articles. I also think Abdi Hire offered a sensible middle ground. In the absence of the institutions that will interpret the constitution and the processes that will have to be done before finalizing the formation of regional states, I think it could be beneficial if an INTERIM Jubbaland administration is recognized, not for three years, but for 1-2 years, on the condition that Ahmed Madoobe will first extend a gogol for the clans who feel excluded and will ensure they are included. It is not perfect, it may not even be fair, but I think given the current stalemate, it is the most practical recommendation. The Economist article confirms what everybody who understands the context knows: that the center will remain weak for some time, and regions will be strong. President Hassan is fighting that 'fait accompli' and therefore swimming against the current.

Qaybta 4aad Talaabo-dheere ma garan la' in Saleebaan hiil u yahay, kamana xuma inay Saleebaan ay wax wadaagaan. Wuxuuba in badan iswaydiiya waxa uu intaas oo sanadood oo uu safar ku ag mari jiray tuulada Saleeban, marna uu ula dagi waayey oo bal aan wax isku darsano u odhan waayey. Wuxuu aad u dareensan yahay in inkaarta iyo tafaluulka ku habsatay uu ka baaqsan lahaa hadii Saleebaan xeeladahiisa iyo tabtiisa uu waa hore hiil bido. Wuxuu Saleebaan hada qabo amase uu maagan yahay isaga Talaabo-dheere ah iskadaaye in xataa ilaahay ogyahay shaki baa kaga jira ninka safarka ah. Waayo? Saleebaan hadii uu yahay nin la maleeyn karo, miyuuba naf la soo gaadhi lahaa halkaa? Soow waa hore hororka iyo dugaaga isu sheegay inuu nacab yahay ma goo'goosteen? Saleebaan iyo Talaabo-dheere waa walaalo maanta. Waa niman isaaminay. Waa rag waxay awal ahaan jireenba, maanta Ugaaska kula doodaya waxaanu rabnaa in cid walba meesheeda lagu amaan galiyo. Inkasta oo Talaabo-dheere uu ahaan jiray nin dadku ayna aad u hadal hayn oo kolkuu isagoo safar ah soo ag maro mooye dhib kale ayna ku qabin, hadana waxaa muuqata in sidii Saleebaan ay isu heleen, uu bartay xeelado cusub oo aan horey loogu aqoon. Dadka qaar baa yidhaa Saleebaan baa ilbiyey! Talaabo-dheere wuxuu leeyahay waxbaan ogol ahay isagoo wax diidan. Taasi dabci dadkii yaqaanay ay Talaabo-dheere ku ogaayeen ma aha. Taas wuxuu ka bartay Saleebaan, oo waa marag ma doonto. Waxaase nin cadaan ah oo daraasad ku saabsan xidhiidhka ka dhaxeeya Somalida iyo xawayaanka la yidha bahal-hiiglo - ee isjecel inay is dugsato balse aan isu adkeysan Karin urka afkooda awgeed - uu sheegay in ay suurtagal tahay in Ugas ka ay u suxul duubteen inay iska celiyaan Saleebaan iyo ninka safarka ah, cadow ka sokeeya tuulada ay beerta ka sameeysteen ka kaco. Hadii taasi ay dhacdo, Talaabo-dheere waxoogaa waa ka xumaan, balse waxaa ilaahay mahadii ah in cida laga yaabo inay qaadato beerta tuuladu ay yihiin Ilmo-Saleeye oo ah nimankii waagii curadka Saleebaan dhintay boobay rer-Saleebaan. Ilma-Saleeye iyo Saleebaan isma jecla, laakiin Talaabo-dheere muddo ka badan 20 sano wuxuu alaabta u qaadi jiray oo uu u safar geeyn jiray ilma-Saleeye. Markaa Tallbo-dheere wuxuu isku qanciyey oo hadii beerta la qaato yaa cidla istaagi? Kolkaan ugu yar ahay Saleeyaan saliga u qaadi sidaydii!

Here are two very good articles on the Federal-Central question and Kismaayo. One is by THE ECONOMIST, the other by Aden Hire, alias abba - friend. In case some of the sick minds wonder where Abba is from, I can confirm he is not a Madoobite. He is a Hiiralite! http://www.hiiraan.com/op4/2013/jun/29807/jubbaland_stand_off_resolution.aspx http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21577437-new-government-mogadishu-has-yet-prove-its-mettle-centre-holds As you can see, now that what we were saying in this forum is said in white mouth, it may get some ears. Any Central Government in Somalia will have to live with the nuisance of dozens of fiefdoms, at least for the short-run. Read the articles and get the reasons.

Sheekadan Gaaban waxaan ka ilaaway DISCLAIMER aad muhiim u ah: "All characters and events in this short story are entirely fictional; any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental."

Gheele, qayb Saddexaad majirto. Qaybta sadeexaad waxay ku xidhan tahay bal in ninka safarka ah ee talaabo-dheere iyo Saleebaan goddka cusub ee ay wada kuwada jireen iyo in safarkiina meeshiisii ku noqdo, Saleebaana kaalintisii helo oo ay mushkiladan soo korodhay ay kaga gudbaan....

war ileen tan oo kale. War Baashe maxaa ku dhacay? Waxaan moodi jiray inuu Xinn iyo Ngonge fahan dhaamo! Listen ya jamacaa. Re-read what I wrote. I am not saying constitution looma baahna. Ama yaan la aqbalin. I am talking about what constitution means in a more generic terms. I am trying to say it is "consent" that makes a document a constitution. It is not the mere articles written in the document. Whatever you say, if Somalia's Constitution today says "Hargeisa is the second capital of the Somali Republic", and the Hargeisawi's DO NOT CONSENT TO IT, it remains a constitution to those who want to use it, but for Hargeisaawi's it is just a paper! Nothing else! That does not mean it cannot be enforced! It can be enforced. But through brute force only. Now, that said, what I trying to say is that if the parliament meets tomorrow and because of the clan balance decides that the President has the right to nominate Governors, there will be no ambiguity. But if the D-block members reject the decision and withdraw from the Parliament because of pressure from their constituencies, the same Hargeisa scenario will follow. The Government can consider the decision a majority decision and start to enforce it, but if there is no CONSENT from the clan (and this applies for all clans by the way), then they will not see the constitution as a document which they have agreed to. That makes it a paper for them. Marka, Baashe must see the two-fold debate here. One is what constitution is about, the other is whether in the current discussion, people should insist on a particular interpretation of articles of the constitution. I hope Ngonge got me.

mid baa shalay igu yidhi, anigu ninkan Xassan ah waxaan u arkaa "nin jeebasha masas nooc walba ah...cobra, black mamba, scorpion...ay uga buuxaan oo hadana qalyaya oo daqsi wajigiisa ku war wareegay ku mashquulsan siduu isaga eryi lahaa". :D yacni wrong priority!

ma odhan, Xinnow. I did not say Hassan constitution wax ka badalo. He has no right to do that. I mean wax ka badalo qaabka uu rabo inuu wax u maamulo oo sheekadan raqiiska ka ee Governor ayaan magacaabaya ha iska daayo. Taas haduu sameeyo, kalsoonidii inay soo noqoto ayaa laga yaaba. And he should apply this principle not only to Kismaayo but to all regions. Today, I met a very senior government guy and while we talked about a work related matter, I would shocked to learn about HIS INTERPRETATION of Federalism. Wuxuu ku leeyahay "Gobol kasta waaxaa loo samayn Maamul oo Xamar ayaa laga magaabaya. Afar qof ayaa loo diraya oo la odhanayaa kala doorta. IYAGAA kala dooranaya *(emphasis on IYAGAA kala dooranaya....maxay kala dooranayaan ma rag doorran?). Markaa ayaa ay sida ay rabaan isu raacayaan... Kolkaa maxaa Federal ah inaan ku idhaa ayaan damcay? Waa fadaree! Still I have no problem with that if it works for some regions. But I expect Lower Shabelle will be the next bomb. Dadka meesha ku nool inay shiraan oo markaa ay go'aansadaan waxay rabaan oo ay dawlada ula yimaadaan baa ka fiican. Dad 100% wax isku raacayaa ma jiraan, laakin intii wada socota ee meesha maamusha hala aqoonsado, dawladuna wixii ay ka tageen ama qaldeen ha la saxdo. But it seems Hassan wants to sit on the DRIVING SEAT of the formation of the states. I think he is generally a micro-manager. Two days ago, he went to Bakaara market personally and said "wixii dhulka ay dhisteen sharcigooda haystaa, ha ii keenaan, anigaa kala saarayee". The other day he told someone every morning he is solving about 50 cases of land disputes in Mogadishu. You look at this and realize the guy does not understand what the roles of a President are and that of a Mayor or a District magistrate are! Wax badan ayaa ka qaldan. And this is not to paint him with a bad brush. I really empathize with him.

Ngonge, I am not saying Somalia ha kala tagto. I am saying for at least four years, there will be no progress. Of course, the answer to the 22 year question is not another TFG, FG, PFG, KGG, but COMPETENT and VISIONARY POLITICAL LEADERSHIP. Hassan is not competent. Period. Maybe it is fair to give him time, but as the Amharas say "ye miya tagib injera ka midaadhu yastawiqal" (you can know which injecra will make you contented by looking at it while it is still on the cooking pan". Xinn, you say the constitution says this, Hassan is saying it does not say so. Interpretation. I am talking to Hassan and telling him this issue is not about interpretation, for I believe as long as Hassan is saying 'we nominate a governor and then regions will form their own states", and you are saying "no, we form ourselves and come for validation", there is enough loophole in the constitution to make both of you feel right. The point is even Hassan nominating Governors would not have been a problem if the people (clans who suspect Hassan) feel the governor nominated will not be favouring a particular outcome. So, it is a matter of trust. Hassan baan leeyahay kalsoonida ka shaqee, laakiin waa runtaa waxaa laga yaaba in arintaasi hadda tahay SANBUUSE LAGA EEDAAMAY.

NGONGE;960938 wrote: ^^ I have withdrawl symptoms now and want an update ninyaho. Haye, maxa soo khorday? Baastada ma la cunay mise wali way karaysaa? kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk :D :D kkkkkkkkkkkk Baastada ma la cunay?? hadaan qosol u dhinto maanta Ngongaa I dilay dadoow.