Juje

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Everything posted by Juje

  1. Originally posted by Emperor: Congratulations to the King, ilaahay haku hago masuuliyada culus hana kadhigo kii diintiisa, dalkiisa iyo dadkiisaba anfaca, Aamiin, Allahayow Aamiin. You call him 'king' and yet waxaad u barye Illah SWT, do you even know what the attributes of a 'king' are ?
  2. China's Play for Somalia's Oil As this column has chronicled over the past year and a half, United States policy toward the remnants of the former state of Somalia has evolved into a sort of dramatic farce played out in the following manner: In the first act, set in the period up to the end of last summer, the opening scene was characterized by the reconstitution of al-Itihaad al-Islamiya ("Islamic Union") militants with an infusion of al-Qaeda-linked radicals and resources, a development largely ignored in most of official Washington even after I and other analysts briefed Congress in the middle of 2005. In the second scene, the one positive development in the territory of the former Somali Democratic Republic, the restoration of the Republic of Somaliland as a democratic and secular state went – and continues to go – unrecognized. In the third scene, when it became apparent that the Islamists were on the verge of capturing the onetime capital of Somalia, Mogadishu, America tried to deal with the threat on the cheap by cobbling together a group of warlords who were promptly defeated by the Islamists. When that effort failed, the act concluded with the State Department threw American backing behind a self-appointed interim authority, the "Transitional Federal Government" (TFG), which had never governed more than a provincial outback, and hoping for the best as its policy drifts aimlessly. The second act was set in the fall of 2006. In the act's opening scene, the Islamists continued racking up success after success, with the radicals among them gradually gaining ascendancy as they cornered the weak TFG and increasingly assumed the mantle of nationalist irredentism. The presumed climax of the drama came when, at the last minute, with U.S. support, the Ethiopian army rushed in to save the TFG and apparently routed the Islamists. The sweep-up – involving even a few U.S. air strikes against al-Qaeda-linked high-value targets – is somewhat desultory however, setting the stage for renewed conflict in the next act. As the third act opened this year, the Islamists reemerged and, joining with clan rivals of the clans represented by the TFG, launched an increasingly effective insurgency. The tragedy, however, was that, having squandered considerable political capital on their misadventures and other quick fixes to date, U.S. policymakers not only failed to cut their losses, but exacerbated things by literally throwing more good money after bad in support of the TFG, which was just barely capable of maintaining a presence in Mogadishu thanks to the armed protection of the increasingly unpopular Ethiopian troops, and by refusing to recognize the reality that Somalia is unlikely to be reconstituted – much less by a "president" widely deemed as illegitimate, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. This reality was driven home in the second scene when a "national reconciliation congress" convened at the behest of the U.S. and the international community came apart as it opened. As if to complicate this narrative even further, a small item in the July 14 weekend edition of the Financial Times by Nairobi-based correspondent Barney Jopson unveiled a deus ex machina twist. It seems that while some U.S. officials were freely lavishing America's material and diplomatic capital on the TFG and while Ethiopian troops and the personnel tiny African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) were struggling to protect the interim "authorities" and restore a modicum of stability to Mogadishu, representatives of the People's Republic of China (PRC) stepped onto the stage and, vaulting past all of the other actors, won exclusive access to Somalia's oil. While everyone was concerned about rescuing him, his "government," and, more importantly, his long-suffering countrymen, from the rising Islamist tide last year, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed was busy negotiating a contract with the PRC's state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – the same firm that one year earlier had been forced to back off a takeover of Unocal under pressure from a broad bipartisan group in the U.S. Congress – as well as the smaller China International Oil and Gas (CIOG) Group. In November 2006, while the TFG was besieged in its last redoubt at Baidoa and Ethiopia was preparing to intervene to rescue those members of the regime who had not fled or defected to the Islamists, the Somali "president" traveled to CNOOC headquarters in China to ratify the deal with the oil group's chairman and chief executive officer, Fu Chengyu. And apparently in June of this year, while special envoys from the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and Italy were shuttling around Somali territory trying to drum up support for ultimately-abortive national conference, TFG "energy minister" Abdullahi Yusuf Mohamad was meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, with Chen Zhuobiao, head of CNOOC operations in Africa, and Judah Jay, managing director of CIOG, to put the final touches on the technical details of the deal. Up for grabs is what is believed to be a field located in the Mudug region of the semi-autonomous northwestern region of Puntland, traditional fief of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed's ***** clan. In the 1980s, a number of Western firms – including Conoco-Phillips (then two separate enterprises), Chevron, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and Italy's Eni S.p.a. – held exploration concessions in Somalia and, according to some estimates, invested more than $150 million in onshore geological studies before they were forced to shut down operations with the collapse of the state. Now Range Resources Ltd., a mysterious oil group that has been suspended from listing on the Australian Stock Exchange five times in the last two years (its share price closed last Friday just shy of 70 U.S. cents), has concluded from data collected by earlier firms as well as field studies that it has managed to conduct in recent years thanks to its close ties with Puntland's rulers that the potential yield may be as high as 10 billion barrels – making the Mudug field alone worth more than $700 billion at Friday's $70.28 a barrel London Brent crude spot price. The deal gives the Chinese firms 49 percent of the profits with the rest supposed to go to the TFG. In addition, according to a subsequent Financial Times report, the TFG will receive a bonus of $50 million for any wells which yield more than 200,000 barrels a day for seventy-five consecutive days. While the venture is clearly risky for the Chinese firms – recall that Somalia has been without an effective government for more than sixteen years – the real question is, in the event they should meet with success, whether Somalis in general will actually see any benefit from the natural resources under their feet. It seems that Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Abdullahi Yusuf Mohamad, apparently with the collusion of their clansmen in Puntland, entered into the bargain without consulting TFG "prime minister" Ali Mohamed Gedi. In fact, as Voice of America's Nick Wadhams reported last week, the deal was signed and sealed not only without Gedi's knowledge, but before the transitional body's rump parliament even had an opportunity to debate any legislation governing oil exploration. To add to the intrigue last week, Reuters reported that a deal was in the works to sell a 49 percent stake in the nascent Somali state petroleum firm that would be vested with the 51 percent share of the Chinese deal to Indonesia's state-owned PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk and Kuwait Energy Company (a.k.a. Zahra Oil and Gas KSCC), a privately-held enterprise. Last year I argued in this column that the Beijing was engaged in a long-term pursuit aimed at securing Chinese access to Africa's energy resources wherever they can find an opening, an observation confirmed by President Hu Jintao's twelve-day, eight-nation tour of Africa this past February, the third since he took office in 2003, which I likewise commented on in this space. However, as I noted earlier this summer, "while the focus has largely been on what China has extracted from Africa, what Beijing brings to the regimes of the continent" needs to also be examined, particularly when it "appears that the PRC has progressively found that arms transfers can serve a wide array of Chinese foreign and even domestic policy purposes, including improving relations with particular countries" even as it "undermines what little leverage Western governments and international organizations have with recalcitrant regimes." All these concerns come together in the formerly secret deal that the TFG "president" struck with the Chinese firms. In Somalia, public unrest increases daily as a direct result of the heavy-handed actions of the TFG: last Friday, the popular Shabelle radio station in Mogadishu reported that it was shut down for several hours when the local police commander in the Holwadag quarter arrested nine staff members (all were eventually released); not surprisingly the same day, two TFG soldiers and two civilians were killed in fighting in the same neighborhood. The next day, the director of independent radio station Horn Afrik's second FM station, Capital Voice, Mahad Ahmed Elmi, was shot dead by unknown assailants. But even as such tactics drive marginalized clans like the powerful USC of Mogadishu into the arms of the Islamists, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed went ahead and signed, with no public consultation, what could be viewed as the most significant economic accord in Somali history, thus throwing additional fuel onto the flames. The TFG head's bet, of course, is that the deal will bring him resources that will enable him to safely ignore his critics or, if necessary, to suppress them. Certainly the record of Beijing's other friends in Africa would lend credence to his calculus. As for ordinary Somalis, if TFG's Chinese firms maintain the same modus operandi in Puntland as they have elsewhere across the continent (i.e., bringing in foreign workers and adding little to the local economy), they will receive little more for their inconvenience than the environmental degradation of their grazing lands and perhaps a little abuse by their own security forces working with the resource exploiters (see my report last year China's hydrocarbon extraction in South Sudan). And the greatest irony of it all is that if CNOOC, CIOG, and their partners strike it rich in Africa's newest oilfield, it will be because U.S. diplomacy, money, intelligence, and arms provided the security and propped up the TFG political cover without which the Chinese consortium could not have gone prospecting in Somalia on behalf of the one country that, according to both the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2007 Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, "has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages." Were it not for the grand strategic stakes involved, this whole tale would actually be quite a comical (and just) comeuppance for the architects of the ill-considered policy of throwing America behind the corrupt and illegitimate TFG. by J. Peter Pham, Ph.D. Source
  3. Originally posted by The Duke: Only the TFG has recou laimed all the national institutions of state after 17 long years. Where and which one have they reclaimed sxb?
  4. Originally posted by The Duke: Its a silly idea. Just an idea from the PM. Ouch..! Was just wondering when you will start marring Geedi...so is it an all out war or just an skirmish?
  5. Originally posted by The Duke: Today is a battle between Qaran-deed and Qaran. Do you even know the meaning of Qaran or even its attributes? Dont even insult the revered word 'Qaran' by mentioning it while you support C/llahi Yusuf, the man who has led Axmaro to capture the country, and destrfoyed what ever remained of Qaraniimo. You are tainted sxb and the downside is that you dont have the capabilty to comprehend you are.
  6. Originally posted by BiLaaL: The fragile nature of our unity is precisely what gave our enemies the audacity to invade our country in the first instance. Sheekoy ku nacey..! The Fragile unity you so vehemtly mention sxb, you dismatled it before you came to rule, the ICU, and in your reign you considered all others as infidils cause you arrogantly assumed you were righteous. Your policy of dealing with the public and appeasing them was lil bit short of dictatorship. The remarkably positive side of creating secure and safe envirement was over ridden by your status in declining to compromise with alternative political foes - hence the reason of the Ethiopian Invassion. Dont blame it on any one else but the rigid policies and stubborn attitude of the ICU.In simple words the ICU gave the reason, purpose and ground for the invassion of Somalia. With that aside , regarding the blame-game, I dont know who to believe either party, but am certain due to my knowledge that no Axmaro or TFG subordinate is capable of placing a 'remote-controlled' land mine in jiid-cadaaha qaburaha Al-Barakaat adaa. , give me something else that I can buy.
  7. Originally posted by Tahliil: What line??....I will assume just for the sake of the people who are living in this hell that you are talking about some imaginary lines that are being drawn behind some computer screens somewhere in Europe or North america just to kill and waste away some time as am doing now and surely as you will do after I post this and nothing particular for the dire situation and the hellish lives that these pple are literally forced to live... this is, this whole exercise is utterly nothing but a very expensive debate meant to protract and mislead.. Morality doesn't come, never comes in single, pre-designed small gift bags...its more like a whole...like a cow...You either take it, embrace it as in totality or leave it and shun it and undersadn that the wolves, all wolves, that is, would want, would love to live like wolves... What a load of ballacks. By drawing the line I dont mean the 'dead-package' as you put it sxb,but rather the blaming game. Lets get that out of the way, ok. As for who is responsible, "Allahu Yaclaam". Having said that we know that there are two opposing armed political organisation in town - Axmaro+TFG and the Resistance. The two marxuums (Allah uu Naxaristo) were killed by either,cause they both believe in assasinating individuals who are a threat to their existance and propoganda. Bilal saxiib however much you put colour in this episode, it is well documented that the Maxakamiins have used this system pre and post their rule. The assasination of high ranking individuals narrows down to them, like wise they also accepted the killing of government appointed 'gudomiyayaal degmo' - which proves that they are not hollier than thou and practice the art of charecter elimination at its best. Hence we may hate the Axmaro and their stooges but are we willing to accept fabrigated and orchestrated propoganda to cover a malicious intend - I certainly will not.
  8. Originally posted by me: Eebe ha u naxariisto, the finger is pointed at the xabash invaders and their TFG collaborators. The enemy is trying to sillence those that are speaking out. The enemy will fail. You are dead wrong sxb...and if you want to be objective in this mess you ought to point the finger at the culprit regardless of your sympathy towards them. Yes we hate the Xabashi and their stooges and are our prime enemies...but what about the bloddy murderers of these individuals and other countless innocent people....draw the line somewhere sxb and be realistic.
  9. This is utterly barbaric and cowardly act. Allah uu naxaristo Mahad iyo Cali Iman, carrurti, afadi, eheledi, qarabadi iyo asxabti ay ka tagen samir iyo iman Allah ka siiyo.
  10. By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN The Associated Press Saturday, August 11, 2007; 8:11 AM MOGADISHU, Somalia -- Two Somali radio journalists were killed within hours of each other Saturday in this violent capital, and colleagues said they believe the men were assassinated. Mahad Ahmed Elmi, 30, was shot by two men with pistols as he went to his office at HornAfrik Media Company early Saturday, witnesses said. Ali Iman Sharmarke, HornAfrik's owner, was killed by a land mine as he returned from Elmi's burial, said another company official, Farah Berey. "(Sharmarke) was targeted by a land mine, apparently remotely controlled," Berey said. "I think it was an assassination and had something to do with Elmi's death this morning." Sharmarke, speaking just before the land mine explosion that killed him, said Elmi's death "was meant to prevent a real voice that described the suffering in Mogadishu to other Somalis and to the world." "Elmi was a symbol of neutrality," Sharmarke said. Elmi was married and had a son and a daughter. Elmi's broadcasts have criticized both the Somali government and the Islamic militants who have been trying to topple the administration through a bloody insurgency. Somali Information Minister Madobe Nunow Mohamed said the killing was "revolting." "Those who do not know the value of the media are behind such wicked actions," he said. Mogadishu is increasingly caught in a guerrilla war, with frequent roadside bombs and mortar attacks. Thousands of civilians have been killed, and a fifth of Mogadishu's 2 million residents have fled to squalid camps. Islamic militants vowed to conduct an insurgency in December, when they were toppled by Ethiopian troops supporting Somalia's government. Somalia has been mired in chaos since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then turned on each other. The government has accused independent radio stations of airing programs "likely to cause unrest." On Friday, police raided Mogadishu-based Shabelle radio and detained eight journalists for several hours, said Aweis Yusuf Osman, editor of the station's English service. Other stations, including HornAfrik, also have been forced off the air for days at a time this year. ___ AP writer Mohamed Olad Hassan contributed to this report from Mogadishu.
  11. Lakiin saxiibo waxan ku warsadey, warku ma xaqiiqa mise waa 'Yobson Times'?
  12. Originally posted by Jacaylbaro: We would like to remind the daughters and sons of Somaliland that Somaliland is here to stay and would not be hijacked by a tyrant leadership. Never it happened in the history of Somaliland for the noble daughters and sons of Somaliland to be imprisoned What about the nephews and nieces, are they not accounted for..?
  13. Adiga iyo KismaayoNews ba waa dambeysaan.... gorma laga tagey oo laga munaqashodey waxan..
  14. Originally posted by The Duke: ME, adeer go wash your mouth and dont insult the SSDF. What has SSDF ever done sxb? NOTHING...! And for the record SSDF has already insulted itself and has proven themselves as nothing else but tools of Xabashi. In this day and age they are the caue of Ethiopian flags flying over Villa Somalia and Circole Officiale .That is the fact stacked up against you and your SSDF. Regardless of what you think of Siyaad Barre (Allah uu naxaristo) he will always be remebered for his stance against the Xabashi - but your adeero , what ever false attributes you give him IS THE CAUSE WHY WE (SOMALIA) ARE OCCUPIED BY XABASHI TODAY . simple and clear.
  15. Originally posted by Xargaga: "WHO ARE THE SUPPORTERS OF THIS HEINOUS ACT"? JB
  16. Originally posted by The Duke: ^^^He seemed kind of confused, his words were along the lines "both groups made a mistake, I was part of the TFG but now I am part of the courts" Prove sxb, even whether you read it in Chinese.
  17. Originally posted by The Duke: ^^^Adeer your lack of comprehension with basic politics is evident but you dont have to make it that clear. A man who supports a government that strives on the misery of its people and relys on the power of invading Xabashi troops - arrogantly claims to judge others political comprehesion. Wa aduunyo forarta.
  18. Originally posted by Salahu diin: I dont think this guy left the government for a sincere reason or anything i think he left because of clan afiliated or money afiliated thing that him and the government disagreed The latter is my bet.
  19. Originally posted by HornAfrique: Juje, ninka siyaasadiisa kasoo horjeedso lakin shaqsiga wax kaa quseeyaanan jirin. ***** Biixi has not said anything Qeybdiid does not say on day to day bases yet I have yet to witness saying anything remotely close about his personal affairs. With that said, Biixi hurdadiisa haysaga laabto meesha wax lagu haayo ayaanan jirin! Xashaa..! Wa markayagi...! Saxiib hadey kaga ficantahey....Biixi wa alkooliste Illah ka furtey oo weliba nacalladeysan...C/qeybdiidna wuu ka daran yahey... haye, maxaad kale oo heysa?
  20. I think he is honoured now, he can well claim to be a 'born-again' Somali.
  21. Originally posted by The Duke: Juje The courts [an organ of a state] was never going to get any where. The only way they can enter Somali politics again is if they change dramaticly. Yes indeed they will sxb, it will be very dramatic that it will sweep you aside, I think you will soon be joining the rebels against Zenawi. So my friend, I have a connection with the ring leader of the protest against 'Xabashi' in MPLS do you want me to give you his contact so that he can lend you couple of anti-posters. Am sure by the time the dramatic changes happens you wont have time to organise yourself, so this may give you a head start...