Abiy's Ethiopia getting boxed in

Incompetence personified

I got the feeling Muse will extend his tenure couple yours despite the election agreement.

Wave of arrests

Xaaji, What's this

Wadani is the most useless political party in the Somali peninsula. They have no firm position or ideology.

Even I had some hope in the beginning. Here's a good assessment.

Prof. Mohammed is a professor and historian of the modern Ethiopian state and a former Ethiopian ambassador to the European Union in Brussels, Belgium.

UAE has been a major failure in everything they were involved from Libya to Yemen. They spent tons of money with little to show for. They are now very involved in Sudan by supporting RSF. So far, the RSF had some success, but nothing that will shift the dynamics. Afwerki, the Sudanese Government, and Amhara are linked up too. They may end up being a bigger loser. But you are right everything depends on HSM.

Pland was in the middle of elections and the rest of the regional admins did issue a declaration. Pland has already reached out to HSM. Pland will likely attend the next national council. The role of the UAE depends on HSM, but there is a consensus the UAE has become a menace that can't be ignored. Farmajo chased out them during his tenure so kicking them out is not a problem, but their influence on the regional leaders is more concerning.

I agree they have to be removed from South and Central Somalia! The Kenyans are more interested in EAC and Ruto is positioning himself Pan-Africanist. They are genuinely concerned about Abiy's recklessness. The Kenyans also know they can keep quiet so that they offend no one.

Any initial war between Somalia and Ethiopia would be Macaswiley vs ENDF/Liyu Police.

How realistic it is to bring Eritrean troops to replace Ethiopians? Will Turkey and Egypt be willing to confront Ethiopia on the waters if the Somali Government and Parliament approve the presence? Can the Somalis be mobilized at a large scale to confront the initial incursion by Ethiopia into Awdal?