Las Anod cases submitted International Criminal Court (ICC)

Xaaji, let's not indulge in the same old mantra. Xamar indeed has no physical control over Hargeisa, but Sland is legally under Xamar. No amount of saying Sland waa qaran will change that. And despite what Ethiopians are saying, Abiy walked into a legal minefield which he is too proud to extricate himself from. Most wars are started due to errors in judgment or hubris. It seems Abiy and Bixiye made serious errors and are too proud to back down.

Arafat, SSC folks can respond in two ways depending on who attacks. If Bixiye and his goons attack by themselves, SSC should respond harshly but proportionally. Whoever Bixiye recruited for the new wave of attacks is not well trained or as experienced as the previous Sland 'army', More importantly, SSC forces are battle-hardened. SSC are far better in messaging and they will have the support of the Somali public as they are not the aggressors. HSM gave Bixiye political cover during the LA siege, but this time around, HSM might not be so generous. If Ethiopia gets involved directly or bullies SSC by establishing bases inside SSC territories, everything should be on the table. We can't have Abiy think he can set up shop everywhere. This will also be the time for HSM and his admin to put up or shut. Either way, we shouldn't underestimate Bixiye's desperation and bruised ego, and Abiy's attempt to externalize his country's problems.

Timely question, listen to this report. I will share my thoughts later. Some of things in the report have confirmed by the locals.

For a new admin, they are way ahead of other established admins.

It's hard enough to fight a rebellion but it is even harder when army officers abandon the military and defect to the rebels.

That's good a trait, but a leader needs more than that especially considering who his boss is.

So what happened to Abiy coming to Hargeisa?

Ethiopia never changes. I was amazed by people who thought Abiy would be any different. He is a product of the oppressive system. "The enemy within Ethiopia has a long history of using a clandestine security apparatus to quell dissent, Ezekiel Gebissa, professor of history and African studies at Kettering University in the United States, told Reuters. During Haile Selassie’s four-decade rule last century, the emperor created a network of spies known colloquially as the “joro tabi,” or listeners, to hunt his opponents. The communist Derg military junta that toppled Selassie in 1974 set up a vast new security system to eliminate threats to the regime. At the turn of the century, Ethiopia got a new constitution and parliament. But this government, too, led by Meles Zenawi, grew increasingly repressive and fashioned a top-down structure of surveillance that extended to every level of society. The system was commonly known as “Amist Le And” – one-to-five – because spies were typically assigned five people to monitor. Abiy became prime minister in 2018. According to the current and former government officials, the Koree Nageenyaa security committee was formed soon afterwards in response to youth protests in Oromiya over inequality and economic mismanagement."

A secretive committee of senior officials in Ethiopia’s largest and most populous region, Oromiya, has ordered extra-judicial killings and illegal detentions to crush an insurgency there, a Reuters investigation has found. Reuters interviewed more than 30 federal and local officials, judges, lawyers and victims of abuses by authorities. The agency also reviewed documents drafted by local political and judicial authorities. These interviews and documents for the first time shed light on the workings of the Koree Nageenyaa – Security Committee in the Oromo language - which began operating in the months after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. The committee’s existence has not been previously reported. Five current and former government officials told Reuters that the committee is at the heart of Abiy’s efforts to end a years-old insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which wants self-determination for the Oromo people and greater language and cultural rights. Oromos have long complained of political and social marginalisation. When new protests broke out in 2019, the government cracked down hard. The Koree Nageenyaa took the lead, the five officials said. The violence in Oromiya has displaced hundreds of thousands of people. Ethiopia’s government and human rights officials accuse the OLA of killing scores of civilians since 2019, a charge the group denies. One of the five sources was willing to be identified: Milkessa Gemechu, a former member of the governing Prosperity Party’s central committee. The others, including two people who have attended meetings of the Koree Nageenyaa, spoke on condition of anonymity. The people familiar with Koree Nageenyaa's activities attributed dozens of killings to the committee's orders and hundreds of arrests. Among the killings, they said, was a massacre of 14 shepherds in Oromiya in 2021 that the government has previously blamed on OLA fighters. Full article below https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ethiopia-violence-committee/

HSM admin is signing MoUs left and right without proper consultation with regional leaders and Parliament. Southwest is particularly concerned about the deployment of Egyptians in their regions.

And another one

Only violence will get you what you want in Ethiopia. As the economic activities of other regions keep falling, the Somali region and its trading routes are becoming prime targets for quick money. Somali traders in the lucrative khat trade are slowly being pushed out as well. ONLF who foolishly gave up its arms is reduced to condemning things.

Will HJ submit to Bixiye's attempt to lit a fire on the region?