Middle East countries could run out of money long before they run out of oil, according to a stark warning issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a report today. The Washington-based organisation says global oil demand is likely to peak around 2040, although it could happen much sooner if there is a concerted global effort to address climate change issues and faster improvements in energy efficiency. That means the clock is ticking for Gulf oil exporters to fundamentally rebalance their economies. However, the IMF says that, without more significant reforms than those already announced, the financial wealth of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and others could be depleted by 2034. “Oil-exporting countries may need to be ready for a post-oil future sooner rather than later,” says the report, called The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region. Gulf Cooperation Council governments– a bloc of six countries comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE which together produce more than a fifth of the global oil supply – have all launched ambitious plans to diversify their economies away from oil and gas. The most high-profile effort is probably Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program, championed by controversial Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but it is a path all six countries are heading down. However, despite such initiatives, oil and gas remains a central element for the region’s economies and there has been limited progress in developing non-oil, private sector activities. The IMF points out that, even where there has been progress on this front, much of the non-oil economic activity indirectly relies on hydrocarbons, via public or private spending of oil-derived wealth. The IMF report recognizes the Gulf countries are aware of such issues and have been adjusting their budgets to take account of the challenging environment they find themselves in. “However, the expected speed and size of these consolidations in most countries may not be sufficient to stabilize their wealth. These adjustments need to be accelerated and sus­tained over a long period of time,” the report warns. The IMF also recommends that, alongside the diversification efforts, Gulf governments need to raise more revenue from taxes and cut government spending. “Governments will likely need to downsize,” it warns. The report does not venture into political commentary, but there is a clear underlying danger to this latter point. The idea of a smaller state is a delicate one for the region, given the implicit social contract between the autocratic regimes of the Gulf and their citizens, in which ruling families untrammeled power but in return offer a cradle-to-grave welfare system. Ultimately, though, regional leaders may find they have few choices. The IMF says the region can either reform now or leave the task to future generations. Either way, change will have to come at some point. Otherwise, the money really will run out. Could Gulf Countries Run Out Of Money Before They Run Out Of Oil? WWW.FORBES.COM “Oil-exporting countries may need to be ready for a post-oil future sooner rather than later,” warns the IMF, in a report issued today

While Abiy is busy in Western Oromia, it seems Amhara and Tigray have essentially become independent entities. This time might one time the West might not be able to save Ethiopia.

War where have you been? I heard you were in Bosaso

I remember Ilhan and Joe Neguse going to Eritrea, good diaspora doing well.

I guess we can all dream. Let me know me when you came from this fantasy dream.

LOL you are a sadi creature,

Don't confuse oligarchs with the people.

This would have funny if your enclave wasn't dependent on foreign aid. People in glass houses...

Unfortunately, these movements are political in nature. The goal is Bu'aale which is the regional capital for Jubaland. It is most likely a parallel administration will be set up with the blessing with the Yanks. The young men and women are however proper soldiers. They might just end being political pawns. We will find out soon.

These sort of things should be aired and dealt with decisively. Moronic old men should have no role in this.

These are Turkish and US trained troops. Some people already tried the clan angle calling these troops Rweyne, Abg@@l and reer Diini invading Gedo in order to discredit these troops but it is not gaining traction. They are properly trained and disciplined force.

It's worth noting Janan arrived in Beled Xaawo yesterday but he left for Mandera as SNA moved in.

They took Doolow and Beled Xaawo. They are moving to Bu'aale.

It's not clear what's going on.

It seems IGAD issue two statements, the initial one asks parties to reconcile and the second one congratulates Qoorqqor. It looks like they might have been nudged to issue the second one.

There's one thing one learns quickly living when you live in the US, everything is driven by self-interest. I am under no illusion as to why they are in Somalia. It was usually the case that they do their business behind closed doors but considering we are in the Trump era, I should have foreseen one, more powerful nations are being shaken down out in the open.

They are not even pretending to be impartial. It is interesting they preempted statements by UNSOM and Europeans and doing away well-practiced collective statement.