Sxb, we have no brothers. We will be yelling brothers as they slit our throats. There are only temporary alliances. And we really ought to stop jumping on peoples' wagons and start chartering our own destiny. Ethiopia is a country of being the oppressors or being oppressed. It does not matter who is in power. It has been like since the formation of modern Ethiopia by Melenik. The country is at crossroads. Whatever the outcome is, I assure you every nation will come out armed to the teeth and will be willing to go to war with its neighbors, with the central government, and with any entity. I stated in other posts, the outcome for Ethiopia will be one of three things unhappy marriage like Bosnia, a centralized state which comes at a price (which also means back to dictatorship), or loose confederation which may lead to outright secession. Whatever the outcome will be, don't expect a vibrant democratic and civic-minded Ethiopia to rise out of this mess.

Afars are all fired up. Galbeedi, An Afar PM will not hesitate to turn his guns on Somalis.

Galbeedi, A Somali has no future in Ethiopia and Muslims will not be given authority over historically Christian land. Any Ethiopian state has been and will always be hostile to Somalis. You are right Tigray does not have the capacity to march to Addis by itself and take over the reins of the state. To his credit, Abiy has put the West in an awkward position, they have a choice between siding with him or watching the disintegrations. Siding with Abiy means there is no one doing their dirty work in the region, in other words, there is no Zenawi, and not siding with him will certainly lead to some sort of confederation with a weak central government, and a strong periphery that will dedicate the center, or simply outright secession. Tigray and in effect other regions will not settle for a very centralized state. If this conflict showed anything, it is that no one is in a position to fully realize their goals. Ethiopia might turn out to be like Bosnia, an unhappy between people that hate each other.

Galbeedi, Your Canucks,

Americans might be just trying to avoid another Afghanistan fiasco. Abiy is hanging in there. The thing might turn into a war of attrition or Abiy might burn down the whole thing.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/state-department-ethiopia-task-force/index.html

Good

It's Tunni territory.

Galbeedi, I don't know where you were the day bullets started flying in Xamar. Life was normal for.most of us. In fact, I was in school when the skirmishes started in surbs of Suuqa Xoolaha, Huriwaa and Yaaqshiid. We only realized something is wrong when Government kids began being taken out of the class. and escorted in Landcruisers. We had to walk home and darkness was setting in literally and figuratively. Unless there's miracle, Ethiopia is done. It's never good idea to arm the public in internal struggles. If Abiy is restoring to this, he's done for.

Without heavy weaponry.

Khadafi and Galbeedi, One thing we tend to ignore or forget is the social fabric is broken now. It's no longer simply about politics. Your average Tigrian can't stand Amharas and Amharas can't stand Oromo and Tigrians. When this excitement dies down, Oromo and Tigrians will be at it as well. This might be the only thing working for Somalis.

The Qeerro are out in force and elements of OLA are surrounding Addis Ababa or Finfinne as some Tigrians are even calling it. The TPLF needs to be Addis to restore services to Tigray and break the seige. And then they will move in to Mi'irabawi Zone which is still occupied by Amhara, it's an important farming region critical to any future Tigray state.