Puntland oo ka warbixisay dagaal maanta ka dhacay degaano ka mid ah G/Sanaag. C/qani C/laahi Cabdi Horseed Media. Taliyaha Ciidanka daraawiishta gobolka Sanaag ayaa Horseed Media u sheegay in Wasiiro ka tirsan maamulka la magacbaxay Somaliland iyo wefdi ay hogaaminayaan 24-saac ee ugu dambeeyay ay soo gaareen deegaano ka tirsan maamulka la magacbaxay Somaliland,kuwaasi oo u Taliyuhu ku sheegay in ujeedadoodu socdaalkooda ay ku sheegeen in ay mashaariic waxbarasho ay ka fulinayaan deegaano ka tirsan maamulka la magac baxay Somaliland. Taliyaha ayaa waxaa u hoosta ka xariiqay in wefdigaasi galabta gelinki dambe ay soo gaareen deegaanka Ceelbuh ee gobolka Sanaag,isla markaasina halkaasi u dagaal ku dhexmaray wefdigaasi iyo Ciidanka Puntland. C/laahi Cumar Caashuur ayaa waxaa u sheegay in dagaalkaasi ay ku dhaawaceen laba Askari oo ka tirsanaa Ciidanka maamulkaasi,waxaana u xusay in aysan jirin ilaa wax khasaaro ah oo soo gaaray. Mar u ka hadlaayay gacan ku haynta degaanka Ceelbuuh ayaa waxaa u sheegay in waqtigan deegaankaasi ay gacanta ku hayaan Ciidanka Puntland. “Waxaa hada ay ciidamadaasi abaabul ay ka wadaan deegaanka Biyo guduud,hase yeeshe waan iska difaacayna,mana ogolaanayno in ciidamo iyo wefdi ka tirsan maamulkaasi ay yimaadaan deegaano ka tirsan Puntland”, ayuu yiri Taliyuhu. Taliyaha Ciidanka darawiishta ayaa waxaa u sheegay in ciidamada Dowlada Puntland ay heegan ku jiraan,isla markaasina ay diyaar u yihiin in ay difaacaan deegaanada Puntland. Xiriiro kala duwan oo aanu la samaynay saraakiil ka tirsan maamulka la magacbaxay Somaliland ayaa waxaa ay diideen in faahfaahin ka bixiyaan dagaalka galabta ka dhacay deegaanka ceelbuuh ee gobolka Sanaag. Dagaalka dhexmaray maleeshiyaadka maamulka la magacbaxay Somaliland ayaa waxaa u ku soo beegmayaa xili labadaasi maamul ay sanadiii ugu dambeeyay ay isku haysteen gacan ku haynta gobolada Sool,Sanaag iyo Cayn. Horseed Media.

Excellent news. It seems like the new admin in hayland and sanaag will bring about fruitful changes to that region, just as is the case with cayn who are constructing an airport. Amazing what it can do to replace an incumbent local administration with a bright educated one.

Eritrea didn't get lucky as you assume, eritrea invest their financial and political support into electing a tigray "meles" into power and in-return eritrea was given a divorce from addis ababa. Secondly, Do you think the U.N would hold a somaliland wide referendum, knowing full well 80% of the people are snm? lol you are very naive. For the simple fact that 80% of the ppl are snm, this can be used against them and said this will create a vulnerable minority group. For example jabuti was given indepedence and not thrown into somalia for 2 main reasons. 1. Somalia was a communist state and france didn't want djibouti to adopt that system. 2. The afar population who are now evenly 50/50 and live in a more fairer society, if they were thrown into somalia they would be among a sea of somalis with their voices reduced. The same case can be argued for ssc and awdal. On Top of that Ethiopia refusal to recognize Sland and the icing on the cake somalia refusal. Somaliland has an uphill battle sxb, this is why noone really takes them serious and call it "marqan-land" or "fantasy-land". Only the naive ones who can be easily fooled like yourself buy into this cheap saga. When the world want's to know about the horn of africa they ask Ethiopia. And Ethiopia will not recognize a somaliland in the near future as they reportedly have said on their foreign affairs website.

Xaaji You need a reality check. When eritrea got it's separation from Ethiopia, nobody took into consideration italian colonial borders. 2 Things were taken into consideration. 1. Ethiopia's consents, after-all this is who Eritrea wished to divorce. 2. A referendum held by the united nation on what the people wanted. Imagine if they hold a referendum in SSC in relation to their support of somaliland being indepedent? It will be 95% NO. U.N will say sorry no-can do. Anyways I am not here to teach kids on how to operate in todays world of politics, that is something you will need to go learn in your time.

Nassir, well can you tell me where Xingalool is located in which part of sanaag? is it the western part? the eastern part? the northern part? As for All Puntland Reliability, That is your opinion. I am not well informed on it's structure and it's sourcing techniques. As for your claim that this is not reported by other media, SBC international reported it and I know that media personally and whatever they say is usually sound. Just watch in the coming hours all the news media report it. SBC is well respected in Puntland. This skermish is a typical rayale tactic to stirr up trouble bro so he can use an excuse to stay in power, i am certain by now you would know this.

In a way Rayale is doing us a favor, it's probably in our favor the longer he stays in hargeisa the less chance hargeisa will ever develop nor be recognized. Wallahi in a way Rayale is blessing and a curse, garowe should play their card well and i am certain farole will. What we do know is Rayale must remain in hargeisa hot-seat, the longer he is there the longer the ppl suffer under him whilst we get hamar sorted out. Anyways i will be watching how garowe plays their cards.

Somaliland border is not decided by colonial rule but through personal choice. The people in those degaans do not want so-mafi-land and noone can force them to. Historically even the makhiris never were considered apart of somafiland, if you read their treaty it says their separate territory to somaliland. The darwish people never acknowledged the treaty therefore never even giving consent to it. Historically sland has no basis and more importantly presently they have no basis the people there hate hargeisa. But i know why this war was set off, rayale sent a wasiir knowing it would stirr trouble and he can use that as an excuse to hold onto his seat. Don't worry bro we know what rayale is planning for you lol. I feel sorry 4 ya'll rayale aint going nowhere and u can say you voted for him all you want but the fact remains no-one other then rayale will ever rule. Dhib bay tahay marki gurigaga xog lagu haysto lol

Xingalool: Puntland oo ka hortagay Booqasho uu Wasiir Somaliland ah ku tagay Sanaag Bari Puntland. 28. oktober 2009 Xingalool(AllPuntland)- Ciidamada dawladda Puntland iyo Maamulka la baxay Somaliland ayaa ku dagaalamay deegaano aan ka fogeyn degmada Xingalool ee gobalka Sanaag ee Puntland. Ciidamada Maamulka Puntland taabacsan ayaa lasheegay in ay ka tageen booqasho uu halkaasi ku joogay mid ka mid ah Wasiirada Somaliland, isla markaasna ay uarkayeen in uu wadey dadaalo,ku aadan qadiyada Somaliland oo laga hirgalayo deegaankaasi. Saraakiisha ciidamada ayaa sheegay in ay jiraan khasaarooyin kala gaaray dhinacyadan, waxaana wararku ay sheegayaan in laysku adeegsaday hubka noocyadiisa kala duwan. Faahfaahin dheeraad ah kama soo bixin Maamulada Puntland iyo Somaliland oo ku dagaalamay deegaankaasi, isla markaasna warar xog-ogaal ah ayaa sheegaya in ay dagaaladan xoogeysteen. F. C. Maxamed AllPuntland

War deg deg ah: “ Cid dhiibtay ma jirto nin udhashay Ismaamulka Soomaalida Itoobiya, dadkii faafiyay warkaas waa been cad, waxa ayna doonayaan Sumcada darada Puntland in ay ka shaqeeyaan” Sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan dawladda Puntland. 28. oktober 2009 Garowe(AllPuntland)- AllPuntland oo raadin dheer ugashay xaqiijinta warka sheegaya in dad udhashay Ismaamulka Soomaalida ee Itoobiya, loo gacan galiyey dawladda Itoobiya ayaa heshay warar hoosaadyo ka soo baxay Aqalka Madaxtooyada Puntland ee Garowe. Xaafiiska Madaxweynaha Puntland ayuu ka soo xigtay AllPuntland in aysan waxba ka jirin arrimahaasi, waxaana Madaxda dawladda Puntland oo ku sugan magaalooyinka Boosaaso iyo Garowe ay qireen in aysan waxba ka jirin in ninkaasi loo dhiibin dawladda Itoobiya oo dagaal kula jirta Jamhada ONLF. Laamaha baaritaanada ku sameeya dadka noocaan oo kale ah ama laga shakisan yahay oo ay sidoo kale la xariirtay APL ayaa sheegay in uu jiro, warka ah qabashada Shan nin, balse ay dawladda Puntland uqabatay nimankaasi in ay baaritaan mariso. Sarkaal sare oo ka tirsan Laanta barista dambiyada dadka lugu tuhunsan yahay ayaa xaqiijiyey in ay meel gaar ah ku hayaan ninka lasheegay in dawlada Itoobiya loo dhiibay, isla markaasna ay Madaxda baritaanadu ay su’aalo ninkaasi ku weydiinayaan gudaha dekeda weyn ee magaalada Boosaaso. Aqalka Madaxtooyada ayaa looga xaqiijiyey AllPuntland.com in lugu soo wargaliyey, madaxda Madaxtooyada Puntland in aysan waxba ka jirin arrimahaasi, markii ay Aqalka Madaxtooyada ku soo dhaceen fariimo uga imaanaya Saaxiibada Puntland iyo taageerayaashiisa oo ku aadan jiritaanka warkaasi. Madaxda Booliska Puntland iyo ciidamada Sirdoonka ayaa si wada-jir ah ugu sheegay APL in aysan waxba ka jirin dad lo dhiibay dawladda Itoobiya, waxa ayna sheegeen in ay guud ahaan hayaan dadka lasheegay in lasoo qabtay, hadana ay ku hayaan baaritaano ayna taasi waajib ku tahay ciidamada amaanka, oo ay Shaqadooda tahay arrintaasi. Saacadaha nagu soo aadan ayay sheegeen dad ka tirsan dawladda Puntland in ay qaban doonaan Shir jaraa’id oo ay ka qeybgalayaan Saxaafada, isla markaasna looga hadlayo warkaas iyo sida ay wax uga jiraan . “ Cid dhiibtay ma jirto nin udhashay Ismaamulka Soomaalida Itoobiya, dadkii faafiyay warkaas waa been cad, waxa ayna doonayaan Sumcada darada Puntland in ay ka shaqeeyaan, ma garan karo waxa laga rabo khilaf laga dhex abuuro Bulshada wada dhalatay, waan maqlay saacadihii ugu dambeeyey, warar ay faafinayeen Saxaafada oo dhan ayna lahaayeen Puntland ayaa dad dhiibtay, taasina waxa ay ila tahay waa wax laga xumaado, in nala ka hubiyo ayaa wanaagsan” Ayuu yiri Sarkaal sare oo ka gaabsaday magaciisa, isla markaasna ka tirsan Baarayaasha kiisaska dadkan. Itoobiya & Puntland ayaa siyaasiin lasoo xariiray APL ay usheegeen in uusan wanaagsaneyn xiriirka wada shaqeyn ee ka dhaxeeya, tan iyo markii ay dawladda Itoobiya ciidamadeeda sirdoonka oo huebysan ay galeen gudaha magaalada Gaalkacyo oo ay dad ku laayeen qaarna kala tageen, taasoo noqotay mid caro ku beertay Madaxda dawladda Puntland ugu sareysa, keentayna in Itoobiya loo diro warqad deg deg ah oo ku saabsan arrimahaasi, balse jawaabta ay Itoobiya soo bixisay ayaan la garan Karin, ayadoo ay wararku sheegayaan in badalaad lugu sameeyey Sarkaalkii Itoobiya ujoogay Puntland.

War deg deg ah: Ciidamo ka kala Tirsan Somaliland Iyo Puntland oo dagaalamaya Wararka deg dega ah ee ku soo dhacaya warqabadka SBC International ayaa sheegaya in ciidamo ka kala tirsan Maamulada Puntland iyo Somaliland uu dagaal ku dhexmarayo inta u dhaxeysa Deegaanada Ceelbu iyo Xingalool ee gobolka Sanaag. Wararkan oo ah kuwo deg deg ah oo iminka soo baxaya ayaa waxaa ay yihiin kuwo aan la xaqiijin karin sida ay wax ku bilowdeen balse xaqiijinaya in dagaalka uu soconayo ayna ku waxyeeloobeen qaar ka tirsan ciidamada dagaalamaya . Waxaana ay sheegeen dadka ku sugan deegaano ka agdhow goobaha lagu dagaalamayo in ay maqlayaan Daryanka Hubka cul culus oo ay isweydaarsanayaan Labada dhinac. Waxii war ah ee ku soo kordha kala Soco wararkayaga Dambe ee SBC international SBC International Warar Xaqiiqo ah.

Don't get carried way, Puntland Administration will be giving a press-conference on this issue and clearing up the propaganda that was reported by the onlf mouth-piece. The men arrested are in Bossaso being interrogated and none of them were ever handed over to Ethiopia. The Press Conference will give further details.

Duke, ethiopia is habash empire and if you think ahmed gurey was successful take a walk down addis ababa and the parliament and see what effect Ahmed gurey had. Totally nothing except having muslims as a majority who are weak and have no voice at all.. Hey the middle-east is 300 million arabs yet 6 million elite jews are the most powerful. Quantity doesn't matter, what count is quality and the habasha have proven that over the course of their history. Sir this is the last time I am entering into this, their are more notable ppl that can actually make me think unlike this one-way demolition. Peace duke

You just said, habashi did return? what success are you talking about, when you successfully win a battle the enemy doesn't return i the society is transformed to the conquerer desires. I think Ahmed gurey didn't want HABASHI to continue controlling ethiopia or maybe i am wrong!!! lol sxb HABASHI OWN ETHIOPIA TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO OWN IT AND ARE SUCCESSFUL IN DEFEATING AHMED GUREY WHILST HIM AND HIS PEOPLE ARE IN A GRAVE. Anyways sxb that is a lost battle on your end as us usual. Ps: The majority may-be muslim but they can't lead anything, because again the habashi influence is so strong and dominant it don't matter if it was only 2 of them left they would still lead. They are unique people in Africa i give them that.

Rod Beckstrom said more than 1.6 billion users use language scripts not based on Latin [EPA] Web addresses to go multilingual The Internet will be more accessible to non-English speaking users with the introduction of domain names using Asian and Arabic scripts starting next year, a global regulator has said. Domain names are the monikers behind every website, e-mail address and Twitter post, such as '.com' and other suffixes. The imminent changes will allow millions of users to use Chinese, Arabic, Korean and Japanese characters for a full Internet address, instead of just part of it as now. It could also open up the Web to more people around the world as addresses could be in characters as diverse as Greek, Devanagiri, in which Hindi is written, and Cyrillic, in which Russian is written. On Monday, the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) said it will declare an end to the exclusive use of Latin script for web addresses later this week. 'Biggest ever change' "This is the biggest change technically to the Internet since it was invented 40 years ago," Peter Dengate Thrush, the chairman of the ICANN board in charge of reviewing the change, told a press conference in Seoul. "This change is very much necessary for not only half the world's Internet users today but more than half of the future users as the Internet continues to spread" Rod Beckstrom, ICANN president ICANN, top Internet security experts and dozens of other companies, software vendors and organisations are attending a six-day conference in the South Korean capital. The announcement is planned a day after the 40th anniversary of the Internet's inception in a computer experiment by researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles. Rod Beckstrom, the president of ICANN, said the change designed to serve the growing number of non-English-speaking Internet users will come into effect in mid-2010. "It will take some period of time to process the applications and then introduce the successful applications," he told the news conference. Beckstrom said more than half of the 1.6 billion Internet users worldwide use language scripts that are not Latin-based. "So this change is very much necessary for not only half the world's Internet users today but more than half, probably, of the future users as the Internet continues to spread." More flexibility He said Internet addresses would no longer use limited top-level domains such as '.com' or '.org', and instead use more flexible internationalised domain names such as '.post' or '.bank'. Beckstrom said the change will also allow Internet users to type fewer keystrokes to access a website which will "give companies a quicker way to get directly to their customers". Under the new system, all web addresses ending with '.bank' would only be available to "authorised" banks, a move aimed at enhancing consumer confidence. ICANN, formed in 1998 by the US government and recently given more autonomy after Washington relaxed its control over how the Internet is run, aims to start receiving applications next month.

Duke, my last smashing point to you. Does ethiopia muslim lead the country? Do Ahmed Gurey followers have any effect on the people today? I don't see muslim leader in Ethiopia, maybe you do lol but in reality there isn't. Habash are still the ruling class and still remain firm upon their orthodox faith. Like i said this is worthless argument as you can even show the habasha as not the ruling class. lol end of story really.

Any reputable university knows Ahmed Gurey was defeated except you son, lol. Anyways i am not going to continue this fruitless discussion. Waqti dhumis weeye waxaani.

Duke, you don't know what success is. A good conquest forever remains upon the conquered people. A conquest is not about defeating but over-throwing the local structures in place of the conquered people. Ahmed gurey defeated a few battalions and even reached tigray region, excellent but the fact remains HE WAS THROWN OUT and killed and became an utter failure.

Facts and Fiction is decided upon weight of evidence, bring your evidence forth and challenge the issue. My premise is that Ahmed gurey was defeated in 1542 by a large ethiopian army and Ahmed gurey was killed and his movement died and Ethiopia resumed operation as usual. You can verify that by International encyclopaedia of Islamic dynasties Author: Nagendra Kr. Singh. Below on Page 52 http://books.google.com.au/books?id=FKD39Cbmdh0C&pg=PA52&lpg=PA52&dq=ahmed+gurey+defeated&source=bl& ots=dUPm6v2Dym&sig=YtLnrcNiq50dEcmJWTvTnzmGQmE&hl=en&ei=QTbnSqXHM6T26gO76dXqBQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&c t=result&resnum=10&ved=0CBsQ6AEwCTg8#v=onepage&q=ahmed%20gurey%20defeated&f=false So my conclusion is straight forward, what success are you talking about? Ahmed gurey defeated Ethiopian armies but it was short-lived and eventually he was repulsed and killed and his people dispersed. The Ethiopian Empire continued to operate as they always have been. Sxb your arguements are weak and easily debunked, you just like to argue for the sake of argument but that is good because it can be shown to the audience that your ignorant and can be easily defeated with mere logic and reasoning and evidence.

Many have tested the ethiopians, but noone has succeeded in controlling them for long period of time. Menelik Defeated Italy well known fact!!! http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/375017/Menilek-II/4805/Defeat-of-Italy-at-Adwa Ahmed Gurey was temporary success, just like America was temporary success against vietnam but still they lost at the end and that is all history counts. What happened last!!! Today Ethiopia is one of the lions of africa, only country not to be conquered, many have tried and many have failed. Period really!!!

Ahmed Guray was total failure and never conquered all of ethiopia and if he did habasha wouldn't be around today. For example a successful conquest is like the early muslims against iran. They conquered, changed and still their influence in seen in the people. The same can not be replicated in ethiopia, the muslims there never became royalty or rulers of addis and was strictly controlled by the ethiopian christians. Till this day we see the same. It was never a success but an utter failure

General, don't try to compete with him, your people were naked when i was writing the somali language and had inter-continental trade network with local governance structure unknown in somalia. The hargeisa click only had nabadoons at tops and no reported sultanates or governance when the colonialists came. And southern somalia had no sutanates and running wild in the farm-lands. So it's pointless competing with me, Today It is Abdulqawi Yusuf, is a prominent public international lawyer and judge who is currently a judge at the International Court of Justice since February 6 2009.

Ahmed guray was temporary success but eventually lost, and Mussolini never succeeded in ethiopia, if he did Addis would be an italian colony which ethiopia never became. Infact Ethiopia is the only African nation that never was colonized. That is well known fact.

The ONLF strategy is not good one however that gives no excuse to any admin within somalia to be handing them over to ethiopia. It is firstly un-islamic to hand over any muslim to a kuffar region and it's not apart of the local culture. Secondly it would be a more wise thing for the onlf to re-strategize and take history into account when dealing with addis ababa. Many men have failed in the defeat of the habash empire. Some notable ones are as follows; 1. Ahmed Guray 2. Sayid Abdulle 3. Mussolini 4. Siyad Barre Those are some of the ones i can think of who have tried and failed into defeating addis ababa. The only group I can remotely think off that succeeded against them is their brother asmara, however their brothers in asmara re-strategized and put their efforts into not the eplf armed resistance, but put their effort into getting meles zenawi into power a follow tigrinya and removing the former head of the state mengistu. This played quite well for the asmara click, they got meles into power, meles thanked them for it and gave the asmara click separation from ethiopia. If it wasn't for this re-strategizing the eplf would most likely still be fighting for indepedence. I suggest to my brothers the onlf to put down their arms and take a leaf from the asmara click and their tactics which have proven more fruitful then the onlf and oromia campaigns that have been going on for over 20 years now. ONLF should work their butts off into getting an an oromo dude into power at addis by funding him and supporting him and using politics such as "oromo's are the majority of ethiopia" slogans in order to win hearts and minds across africa and the international community. Ethiopia today after-all claims it is democracy, and in a democracy majority rules. If i was from that area that would be my focus and not the onlf campaign which is ridiculously fighting 185 000 soldiers that come under the ethiopian military. The odds are just not with them and a war against such a massive army which is reported to be the biggest in africa is just not in the interest of their people and it hasn't brought about any fruits towards indepedence. To my brothers the ONLF that is my piece of advice. Tudos.

Shirkaddii Al-baarkat oo liiska madoow laga saarey. Xafiiska Al-arkaad ee Stockholm Stockholm(Puntlandi)Qarammada midoobay ayaa ka saartey liiska madoow ee argagixisadda shirkadii al-barkat ee xawilaada, qeeybteedda dalkaan Iswiidhan. Shirkadda Al-baarkat qeeybteeda xawilaadda ayaa muddo siddeed sano ah ku jirtey liiska QM ee dhanka, kaas oo ka dacwooday ururka Al-barkat ee fadhigiisu yahay magaalada Stockholm. Go'aankan ayaa farxad galiyey qareenka ururka Al-barkat Thomas Olsson oo sheegay inuu hada u hawl gali doono sidii xanibaada loga qaadi lahaa lacagta malyanka gaareeysa ee laga heeysto Shirkada. Qarammada midoobay ayaa ka saartey liiska madoow ee argagixisadda shirkadii al-barkat ee xawilaada, qeeybteedda dalkaan Iswiidhan. Shirkadda Al-baarkat qeeybteeda xawilaadda ayaa muddo siddeed sano ah ku jirtey liiska QM ee dhanka, kaas oo ka dacwooday ururka Al-barkat ee fadhigiisu yahay magaalada Stockholm. Go'aankan ayaa farxad galiyey qareenka ururka Al-barkat Thomas Olsson oo sheegay inuu hada u hawl gali doono sidii xanibaada loga qaadi lahaa lacagta malyanka gaareeysa ee laga heeysto Shirkada.

Somalia: The Struggle for Kismayo and Clan-Based Islamist Warlordism 27 Oct 27, 2009 - 5:37:15 AM By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein Intelligence: A closed source on the ground in south-central Somalia reports on the financial dimension and motivation of the current conflict in Somalia's far sourthern Jubba regions between Harakat al-Shabaab Mujihideen (H.S.M.) and Hizbul Islam (H.I.), the two major armed Islamist opposition groups to the internationally recognized and ineffective Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) that control and have set up administrations in those regions. The source centers the conflict in a dispute over revenues from the port of Kismayo, south-central Somalia's second largest city and the economic and political hub of the deep southern regions. The source says that revenues are currently running at US$1 million per month, of which H.S.M. has been taking ninety percent, driving H.I. to try to force H.S.M. to alter the proportions. The source goes on to say that the antagonists are currently playing a waiting game to find out "who gets money in first." H.I., says the source, now has a faction that is ready to join the T.F.G. if the latter receives sufficient infusions of foreign aid. Meanwhile, the source reports, H.S.M. has been leading in the contest for donations from Somali businessmen in Nairobi. Significance The significance of the intelligence resides in its diagnosing the conflict as a case of economic motivation. Independent monitoring confirms that neither H.S.M. nor H.I. has raised any ideological or strategic issues in the conflict. There has been no controversy over H.S.M.'s transnational Islamism and H.I.'s Islamist nationalism, and H.S.M.'s severe interpretation of Shari'a law and H.I.'s presumably less punitive take on Shari'a. There has been no controversy about contrasting strategies for achieving the Islamic emirate/state that they both claim is their goal. Instead, the conflict has been over control of the administration of Kismayo pure and simple - who gets what - and has been increasingly fought on a sub-clan basdis. The conflict began last August when H.S.M. refused to honor an agreeement with H.I. that it would turn the administration over to the latter, according to a schedule of rotation among the coalition partners. By late September, H.S.M. had succeeded in ousting H.I. from Kismayo and announced that it was forming an administration of its own, excluding all other factions, and was linking that administration to the wider H.S.M. administration of the Jubba regions. Since then, H.S.M. and H.I. have fought a series of indecisive skirmishes in towns around Kismayo, with H.I. maintaining its stronghold in Afmadow. With H.S.M. holding Kismayo, fissures have surfaced in H.I. As the conflict over Kismayo has proceeded, its clan dimension has become conspicuous. Vulnerability to sub-clan rivalries was built into H.I., which is an amalgam of Islamist resistance groups that is represented in the Jubba regions by Harakat Ras Kamboni (H.R.K.) and Anole, both of which are rooted in southern sub-clans of the ***** clan family. H.S.M., which proclaims itself to be trans-clan was forced to rely on other ***** sub-clans when H.I. challenged it. On October 8, Sh. Hassan al-Turki, the leader of R.K.B., said that the conflict had "become tribal." Local media were quick to see parallels between the current conflict and the naked southern ***** sub-clan struggle over Kismayo between warlords Barre Hirale of the ******* and Gen Morgan leading the others that occurred before the 2006 Islamic Courts revolution. At present, by relying on the *******, H.S.M is playing Hirale's role and H.I. Gen. Morgan's. Hirale himself is reportedly mobilizing his militias in Kenya, with the aim of restoring his pre-Courts Jubba Valley Alliance. Clan-Based Islamist Warlordism Putting together the source's report that the conflict in the Jubba regions is primarily financially motivated, the absence in the conflict of appeals to ideology and strategy, and the sub-clan character of the conflict, a picture emerges of an incipient clan-based Islamist warlordism. Warlordism is familiar to Somalia observers as the dominant form of political organization in the south-central regions after the fall of dictator Siad Barre in the early 1990s. As it developed in Somalia, warlordism became a practice of economic predation carried out by a strongman with local and sometimes regional ambitions whose base of support was sub-clan militieas and their members' dependents, and intimidated or favored businessmen. This conventional warlordism was particularistic (based on clan and personalistic identification rather than commitment to program or principle) and played out as a struggle over spoils and extortion or protection rackets. Its administrations were self-dealing and its justice, if one could call it that, was arbitrary and biassed; it was gangsterism in the name of sub-clan protection - the last social refuge in a disintegrated political community. Always a balance between public function and private interest, politics - in the form of warlordism - tips the balance overwhelmingly in favor of the latter. Where warlordism is pervasive, the population is beholden to it, because the dynamics of fear and mistrust have cut so deeply that they are nearly impossible to overcome - social entropy ensues. The conventional warlordism of the post-Barre period was broken by the 2006 Islamic Courts revolution, which proposed to unify Somalia according to a political formula based on the creation of an Islamic national state based on the practice of Shari'a law and governed by clerics. When the Courts were dispersed by the Ethiopian invasion and occupation of south-central Somalia at the end of 2006, Islamist resistance to the occupation, which dislodged the Ethiopians two years later, differentiated into the armed opposition groups to the T.F.G. that are present today and that held uneasily to tactical cooperation until that was shattered by the Kismayo conflict, which appears to be ushering in a new Islamist warlordism. Like conventional warlordism, the Islamist variety is clan-based, local and oriented toward economic gain. It adds, however, an Islamist ideology or at least identity to the conventional type, as an overlay. The Courts revolution had the formula of Islam+clan; the new warlordism has the formula Clan+Islam. This is not to say that the Islamist overlay is merely rhetorical or simply an after-thought; when Shari'a courts are operative, as they are throughout the regions controlled by the Islamists, they provide at least a semblance of legal order, whereas that cannot be said for conventional warlords. Clan-based Islamist warlordism presents the prospect of localized power centers dominated by military leaders with clerical claims who preside over Shari'a courts in the name of sub-clan identification. The conflict in Kismayo, regardless of the eventual balance of power that results from it, portends that outcome. The same tendency has appeared in most of the other south-central regions without the same level of violent conflict, perhaps because the prize is not as great elsewhere. It is plausible to judge that the energy of an Islamist political formula for Somalia has been spent, and that the entropy of defensive sub-clan identity has set in. Conclusion Expanding on the source's report to produce a picture of an incipient clan-based Islamist warlordism helps to explain why the extreme scenarios presented in the media and by domestic political actors have not materialized. On one side, fueled by statements to that effect from H.I., there were predictions of all-out war between H.S.M. and H.I. On the other, fueled by the hopes of the T.F.G. and its ally of convenience, the armed Sufi Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama'a (A.S.W.J.) movement, there were predictions that the Islamists would self-destruct, leaving the path open to the T.F.G. to exert control over the south-central regions. Neither scenario has eventuated; instead, the Kismayo conflict has remained localized, as have the conflicts in the central and southwestern regions, indicating an assimilation of Islamism into sub-clan - neither explosion nor implosion, but a form of social grafting. Indeed, the Islamic Courts originated within sub-clans and for a brief period seemed to transcend them. Should the current pattern persist, clan-based and personalistic factional splits are likely to continue to occur within armed opposition groups. There have been reports that officials of H.S.M. from the ****** clan family have distanced themselves from or quit the group because they do not want to be part of an intra-***** fight. There is greater evidence that H.I. has split into factions supporting Sh. Adan Madobe's militant stance on taking Kismayo by force and factions seeking conciliation or, as the source reports, ready to go over to the T.F.G. if the deal is sweet enough. Another reported split in H.I. is between its chair, Sh. Hasan Dahir Aweys, and its former chair, Dr. Omar Iman, whom Aweys has supposedly accused of leaning too far toward H.S.M. and who is reportedly trying to mediate between H.S.M. and H.I. On October 14, Sh. Abdirahman Odawa, H.I.'s military commander in Elasha Biyaha - Aweys' base in the Lower Shabelle region just south of Mogadishu - defected to the T.F.G. with some of his fighters because he was dissatisfied with H.I.'s investigation of the assassination of his brother Ahmad Talibani. None of these tensions, of course, spells self-destruction, but only fragmentation and realignment along the lines of calculations of positional advantage by the myriad actors. One must remember that the T.F.G. is also seriously split, as it has been from its beginning in 2004, by factions allied with its president, now Sh. Sharif Sh. Ahmad from the ******, and its prime minister, now Omar Abdirahman Ali Sharmarke from the *****, who are currently contesting the composition of a new cabinet that Sharmarke is expected to name under pressure from donor powers. In the Jubba regions, the waiting game to see who gets the money if it comes, when they get it, how much they get and with whom they are ready to share it remains in play. That is what one would expect from warlords. Sub-clan loyalties are hard to break when conflict feeds on itself. Report Drafted By: Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, Professor of Political Science, Purdue University weinstem@purdue.edu ©2009 All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this article for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Rebublication or redistribution of this report, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent Garowe Online