Jimcaale- When you decide what side of the divide you are on, come back to me. I see right through the best of both worlds. Something tells me you are among those famous of ours who diverged with adeer when Hiiraale entered the picture.

Somalia: The Pottery Barn Rule allAfrica.com GUEST COLUMN January 19, 2007 Posted to the web January 19, 2007 Ken Menkhaus "You break it, you own it." The Pottery Barn rule of intervention and nation-building, made famous in Iraq, is about to be tested in Somalia. Ethiopia -- with support from the United States -- has just broken a rather pricey piece of pottery in the Horn of Africa. In launching a major military offensive against Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), Ethiopia removed an increasingly radicalized and arguably dangerous movement from power, but one which had succeeded in bringing rule of law to the capital Mogadishu for the first time in fifteen years. Thanks to the Ethiopian intervention, the jihadist wing of the UIC is at least temporarily on the run. But Mogadishu is again ungoverned and growing more lawless by the day. Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is now expected to assume administrative control of Mogadishu, a city of one million hostile, fearful, and well-armed people. But the TFG is weak and intensely disliked by most Mogadishu constituencies. It is in no position to govern absent a partnership forged with the Mogadishu leadership, and will not even be able to remain in the capital without the continued presence of Ethiopian forces. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the Ethiopian intervention, all concur that the fragile TFG must be made to work, lest Somalia fall back into a state of collapse. To this end, external actors are promoting power sharing between the TFG and its Mogadishu-based opposition, pledging support to improve the TFG's capacity to govern, and working to rapidly deploy an African Union peacekeeping force to Somalia. All of these efforts are appropriate; all are long-shots. The quick deployment of an African Union force is especially problematic. Ethiopia is keen to avoid being drawn into a quagmire and has announced intent to withdraw its troops within weeks, passing Pottery Barn responsibilities on to the international community. The odds on assembling and deploying a viable peacekeeping force in that brief period of time are poor. And if peacekeepers are deployed absent a political dialogue that reassures Mogadishu-based groups, they will be viewed as not neutral and will be subject to attacks by both residual jihadi cells and clan-based militia. Under these circumstances, the most likely scenario for Somalia is not hard to foresee. Ethiopia will partially withdraw and will not be replaced by adequate numbers of African Union peacekeepers; the TFG leaders will be unable to govern Mogadishu, will face a mounting insurgency, and will beat a hasty retreat to the countryside; and Somalia will fall back into political division and de facto collapse. The Pottery Rule, it turns out, does not apply in Somalia. For obvious reasons, the optimal outcome for almost all concerned would be the revival of a functional, moderate government that provides security for its own citizens and not insecurity for neighboring states. But if that state-building project is too onerous or risky, renewed state collapse is an outcome that many key actors – Ethiopia, the United States, and a variety of Somali constituencies from businesspeople to Islamists – have learned to live with and occasionally prosper in. In other words, a return to state collapse is almost no one's first choice for Somalia, but almost everyone's second choice. Given how difficult, time-consuming and expensive reviving a failed state is, many external actors – especially those with notoriously short-attention spans for nation-building – will fail to follow up on oral commitments to shore up the TFG once Somalia fades from media attention. Some Somali groups, too, will undermine risky state-building initiatives the moment they threaten parochial interests, preferring the devil they know – anarchy – to the devil they don't. For weary residents of Mogadishu, these narrow calculations are a recipe for misery. For six months in 2006, they had a taste of life in a safe, governed city. Though many Somalis were deeply uneasy with the radical and reckless direction the UIC leadership gradually took, they were willing to tolerate almost anything in return for public safety. Unless some inspired Somali leadership produces a break-through agreement that produces a government of national unity and speedy revival of a municipal administration, Mogadishu residents will soon be plunged back into lawlessness, and forced to revive the many coping mechanisms they have devised to survive. And they will blame the US and Ethiopia for breaking the pottery and walking away. Dr. Menkhaus is professor of Political Science at Davidson College, North Carolina and author of "Somalia: State Collapse and the Threat of Terrorism."

Originally posted by Che-Guevara: You mean clan courts And what was the Mogadishu Courts union? And why the disintegration? Sheikh Sharif might have left, but surely not Islam? This is what the governor of Beled-Xaawo said when political opportunists who had hijacked the good objective of the Courts had designs on using Islam to capture the country for them. Maamulka Degmadda Beled-xaawo oo beeniyey inay socdaan qorshe Maxkamad Islaami ah looga hirgelin doona B/Xaawo. Mogadishu, Khamiis, Okt 26, 2006 Radio Simba Guddoomiyaha Maamulka ee Degmadda Beled-xaawo, Axmed Maxamed Yuusuf "Bar-kuus", ayaa sheegay inaysan waxba ka jirin wararka lagu sheegayo in Maxkamad Islaami ah haatan laga dhaqan-gelinayo Degmadda Beled-xaawo. Guddoomiyaha, oo maanta u waramayey Idaacadda Simba, isagoo ku sugan Degmadda Beled-xaawo, ayaa ku nuuxnuuxsaday inay Bulshadda ku nool Degmadda Beled-xaawo mar hore dhisteen Maxkamad Islaami ah oo ay ku mideysan yihiin, isla markaana ay Maxkamaddaasi qaado nooc kasta oo fal-dembiyeed ah iyo Dacwadaha Maddaniga. Mar wax laga weydiiyey Aragtida uu Maamulkiisa ka qabo haddii ay Maamulka Golaha Maxkamadaha Islaamka Somalia ku dhaaqaaqaan inay Maxkamad Islaami ah oo Cusub ka hirgeliyaan Degmadda Beled-xaawo, waxa uu ku baaqay in la tixgeliyo Maxkamadda Islaamiga ee ay wada dhisteen dadweynaha ku nool Degmadaasi. Guddoomiyaha Maamulka ee Degmadda Beled-xaawo, waxa uu tilmaamay inay Bulshadda ku nool Degmaddaasi yihiin kuwo Aragti ahaan taageersan Hawlaha GMIS ka wadaan Goballadda Koonfurta Somalia. Simba Media Center , Mogadishu

Allgedo - News, Jimco January 19, 2007 Gacan ku dhiigle ayaa maanta lagu qisaasay fagaare ku yaala degmada B/xaawo ee gobolka Gedo Mogadishu Gacan ku dhiigle xalay nin ku dilay degmada B/xaawo ee gobolka Gedo ayaa maanta lagu qisaasay meel fagaaro ah oo ku yaala degmada B/xaawo, iyadoo boqolaal dad ah ay halkaasi isugu soo baxeen. Gacan ku dhiiglehaan la qisaasay oo la oran jirey Faarax Axmed ayaa waxa uu xalay dilay nin la oran jirey Axmed Muuse, iyadoo markii uu dulay isla xalay howl-gal ay sameeyeen ciidamada amaanka ay u suurto gashay in gacanta lagu soo dhigo. Maxkamadda Shareecada ee degmada B/xaawo ayaa fulisay xukunka qisaasta ah ee lagu riday Gacan ku dhiigle Faarax Axmed. Boqolaal dad weyne reer B/xaawo ah ayaa u soo daawasho tagay fagaarihii lagu qisaasayay gacan ku dhiigle haan, iyadoo aanu dhicin wax rabshado ah xilligii qisaastu ay dhaceysay. Dadka degmada B/xaawo ayaa dilal badan ka dib waxa au go’aan ku gaareen in xukunka islaamka lagu fuliyo qofkii qof dilaa, iyadoo tan iyo markii ay qaateen nidaamkaana uu yaraaday isdilka.

Ethiopia 'set for Somali pullout' Ethiopian forces are to start leaving Somalia "in the next few days", Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has told the BBC. Ethiopia helped Somalia's interim government oust Islamists from the capital but has always said it does not want to stay long. Mr Meles said the first phase of the withdrawal could start now that several key warlords had disarmed. The African Union (AU) is meeting to discuss sending a peacekeeping force to Somalia to replace the Ethiopians. The AU is considering a plan to send nine battalions of troops - some 8,000 men - with maritime, coastal and air support. The plan envisages that three battalions would be deployed as soon as possible, with the rest within six months. The plan warns that if the African peacekeepers are not deployed before the Ethiopian troops withdraw there is "a very high probability" of an Islamist resurgence. Mr Meles would not guarantee his troops would remain in Somalia until AU peacekeepers had been deployed but said he thought there would be an overlap. "We want to withdraw at the earliest possible opportunity but we want to do it in a responsible manner," he said, adding that the complete pullout would take place in three phases. Uganda's ruling National Resistance Movement has approved plans to send some 1,500 peacekeepers to Somalia, meaning that parliament is almost certain to back the plans when it meets later this month. No other country has made a public offer of troops, although the leaders of Ethiopia and Kenya on Tuesday said several unnamed African countries had offered to contribute troops to the proposed 8,000-strong force. BBC African analyst Martin Plaut says it would take weeks for any troops to be deployed after a firm decision is taken. 'Peace opportunity' The 6,000-strong government forces are not seen as being capable of controlling the lawless country on their own - although it is being strengthened by the warlords. Three of Somalia's major militia leaders have this week surrendered their weapons to the transitional government, while their fighters have joined the national army. The warlords agreed to disarm last week - but as they did so, their gunmen battled in the capital, Mogadishu. Omar Finish, Mohamed Qanyare Afrah and Musa Sudi Yalahow have surrendered control of more than 60 "battle wagons" - vehicles mounted with anti-aircraft guns - and some 380 fighters. Four other warlords said their militias would disarm but they have not yet done so. The former militiamen will now go to a military camp for training. Their clan-based militias have battled for control of parts of Somalia for the past 16 years - since the country last had an effective national government. The militias were hated by many Somalis for running road-blocks, where they extorted money. On Thursday, UN envoy to Somalia Francois Fall urged the country not to waste "the best opportunity for peace for 16 years" after visiting interim President Abdullahi Yusuf in Mogadishu. Mr Yusuf arrived in Mogadishu last week for the first time since being elected president at peace talks in 2004.

Xiin Waa tahay!

Originally posted by Castro: I suspect Xiin thinks nothing of it. You see, HA, for us, the puppet regime is a group of imbeciles. That they would feud over this is not surprising but expected. The titles they hold are meaningless, as their actions show. And their behavior fits that of the simple, unintelligent reactionary men that they are. I'm sure Xiin can speak for himself.

Xiin, what say you about this alleged event!

And people advocate for more resistance and violence for selfish reasons. Powerful article.

Originally posted by Miskiin-Macruuf-Aqiyaar: Will Indhamadoowe's message be repeated once again: Anagaa kuu dhiibanay, anagaana kaa qaadanay. I remember Yusuf Siyaad Indhacade, while speaking in the name of the ICU, saying tallada Kismaayo kama go'no Barre Hiiraale iyo Cabdulaahi Yusuf" but I have no recollection of him uttering the words you have just put in his mouth. What can we expect, you are the same man after all whose renowned bias leads him to cling to Koojaar. Qof jeclow ku yidhi yaanba jirin!

Jimcaale- As of yesterday, the transitional administration Barre Hiiraale named was working perfectly and had extended amnesty to the rest of the ICU militiamen. Parliamentarian Xiddig extending amnesty. And the newly named Commander of the Armed Forces, Jubbaland Division Col Fartaag had announced the opening of the first militia rehabilitation base. Col Fartaag announcing the opening of Luglaay.

Originally posted by Castro: HA, you missed the message in my words. The one you wanted me to get that is.

Xiin- Anigu Sheikh Yonis Cadue afaarahiisu gacanta lama gali. Inaan haa iyoo huu ku iraahdo waaba mar maahe waxba kuma darsado, dhagna uma rogi!

Castro, how fast did you come out of hiding?

The defense minister is the defense minister (although recently I have been getting word Barre has been expressing wishes to resign so he can retire to private life) and the president is the president. I do not see why and how they could have come this close to blows over Kismaayo without the scrutiny of the public and the media nor why Ethiopia would interfere between them as if they are factions. A lot of things do not make sense but then again it is only the words of an anonymous Somali individual.

dagaal qadhaadh oo hada ka bilowday degmada xudun Warkii 18-Jan-2007 iyo Qormadii: axmed c/laahi war hada naga soo gaadhay degmada xudun ayaa wax uu sheegayaa in uu dagaal qadhaadh uu kabilow day hada dagaalkaas oo u dhaxeeya maamul goboleedka Puntland iyo maleeshiyaad ka Daahir Riyaale. dagaalkan ayaa waxa uu kadan beeyay kadib markuu madaxwayne ku xigeenka xasan daahir afqudhac iyo wafdi uu hogaaminayo ay tageen aagaas oo in dhawaaleba ay qas siyaasadeed ay kataagnaayeen. dagaalkan ayaa ah mid habeenimo bilowday saa daraadeed aan la ogayn wax uu qasaare gaysatay wax wara laga mahayo oo dhaba dagaalka xaalkiisa iyo qasaaraha dhabta ah wixii kasoo kordha dagaalkan waxaanu idinkala soo socodsiindoonaa wararkayaga kale kala soco wixii kasoo kordha afnugaal.com afnugaal.com axmed c/laahi

Ciidamada Somaliland Oo sooweeraray M/weyne Ku Xigeenka Puntland Ahna ku simaha (Laascaanood}18.1-07 War Deg Deg Ah:::::::: Ciidamada Maamulka Labaxay Somaliland Ayaa weerar kusoo qaaday Madaxweyne ku xigeenka puntland Xasan Daahir Afqudhac oo haatan ku sugan degmada uu kasoo jeedo ee Xudun..................................... Sida Ay noosheegayaan ilo war gal ah oo kusugan degmada xudun madaxaweyne xigaha Puntland mudane Xasan Daahir Maxamuud Oo haatan ku sugan degmada xudun ee gobolka sool ayaa waxaa dhinaca waqooyi galbeed kasoo weeraray ciidamada Milateriga ee maamulka labaxay somaliland. Boqolaaal Ciidamada Lugta ah ee maamulka labaxay somaliland ayaa lagu arkayay galabta deegaamada ku hareeraysan degmada xudun ciidankaas oo lasheegay inay kusii jeedaan gudaha degmada halkaas oo uu haatan ku sugan yahay xasan daahir afqudhac madaxweyne ku xigeenka maamul gobolledka puntland. Israsaasayn aan lasheegin wali khasaaraheeda ayaa lasheegay in galabta makhribowgii laga maqlayay agagaarka degmada xudun. wararkii ugu danbeeyay ee aanu kahelno jiida hore ee magaalada laascaanood na waxaa lasheegay in ciidan xoogan oo isla maamulka labaxay somaliland ah halkaasi lasoo duldhigay kuwaas oo haatan diyaar ah Dhanka kale ciidamadii maamul goboleedka puntland ee horay ugu sugnaa aaga ay labada ciidan isku horfadhiyaan ee kudhow Abeesaley oo waayadanba cutubyo ciidamo ah laga soo kaxeynayay si ay uga mid noqdaan ciidamada dowlada Somalia ayaa lasheegayaa in haatan la xoojiyay. magaalada laascaanood waxaa laga diyaariyay 15 gaadhi oo tikniko ah laguna xoojinayo ilaalada madaxweyne ku xigaanka ahna ku simaha madaxweynaha puntland xasan daahir afqudhac. Wafuuda joogta Degmada Xudun Oo Uu Horkacayo Madaxweyne Ku Xigeenka ayaa waxaa kamid ah Wasiiro iyo Wasiiro ku xigeeno Taliyayaasha ciidanka iyo waliba masuuliyiinta gobolada oo uu kamid yahay Ibraahim Jaamac Daad Gudoomiyaha Gobolka soool ........................ Liibaan Jordan Widhwidh Online News Desk....

Originally posted by xiinfaniin: War ma la ii kaa qaybshey? Oo Sheikh Yonis Cadue ismiidnaan baran miyaa?

Everything happens for a reason.

Originally posted by Mujaahid: Red Sea: ^you speaking of an audio..why look for such, it has been done already, focus on that mr.oodkac ku naax. Horn, you also supported the ICU before they liberated Kismayo from Thug Col.Barre Hiiraale, only then did you fliped,why? Talk is cheap Red Sea! Forgive me but discussing why I "flipped" on the Kismaayo fiasco is like an intelligence officer discussing classified info with an everyday civilian! Forgive me then, if I continue to ignore cheap jibes as I have been doing recently!

Israeli PM faces calls to resign Israeli opposition politicians have called on PM Ehud Olmert and his defence minister to resign. This follows the resignation of the head of Israel's armed forces, Lt Gen Dan Halutz, over the handling of the conflict in Lebanon. Mr Olmert and Amir Peretz should share the blame for failures in the conflict with the militant Hezbollah movement in 2006, the opposition figures said. Gen Halutz said he was taking responsibility for the mistakes made. The conflict ended without Israel achieving its main aim, the release of two soldiers captured by Hezbollah in a cross border raid into Israel. The Lebanese militant group described Gen Halutz's resignation as proof of its victory over Israel. Inside Israel, the focus of blame is shifting from the military towards the government. "The chief of staff's resignation officially confirms the failure of the Lebanon war and compels the prime minister and the defence minister to stop holding on to their positions and resign from their posts," said Yisrael Katz of the right-wing opposition Likud. Gen Halutz said he wanted to assume his "responsibilities" after a war which has been widely criticised for failing to crush the anti-Israel militia. A military inquiry is now over, but the government's handling of the 34-day conflict is still being investigated. The resignation is the latest in a series of setbacks for Mr Olmert. Hours before Gen Halutz made his announcement, the justice ministry ordered a criminal investigation into Mr Olmert's role in the privatisation of the country's second largest bank in 2005. Not freed Israel attacked the Lebanon-based Hezbollah after the group captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid last July. But it failed to free the soldiers or destroy Hezbollah before a ceasefire ended the fighting in August, with Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah claiming a strategic victory over Israel. About 1,000 Lebanese were killed in the conflict, mostly civilians in Israel's vast bombardment of the county and land invasion in the south. Lebanon's infrastructure also suffered extensive damage. The Israeli army lost 116 soldiers. Forty-three Israeli civilians were also killed by more than 4,000 Hezbollah rocket attacks. Several other senior army commanders have also resigned over the handling of the war.

Originally posted by Mujaahid: Red Sea: ^No, still you were an oppenent of the former TNG? so why? I supported that chance for governance as I support this one. Somalia needs to move on and every blinking light must be supported unless disappointment reaches us!

What a horrid timespan that was for that good region between 1996-2000. It was even the time Morgan turned against the people who helped put him in Kismaayo by taking advantage of the preoccupation with Ethiopia. I pray Somalia does not descend to what that region descended to during that time! It is worthy to mention that Gen Massale immediately loss face with his constituency over the Ethiopian issue. His latter day turn around was to salvage whatever was left of the respect he had in Gedo but by that time it was too late. Not only did reer Gedo abandon him but Ethiopia marked him too!

Clan Divisions Threaten Somalia Government By Alisha Ryu Mogadishu 17 January 2007 In Somalia, the demise of the country's once-powerful Islamist movement is putting enormous pressure on the secular, U.N.-recognized interim government to rally popular support and stabilize the country. VOA Correspondent Alisha Ryu, in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, reports government leaders must first overcome growing clan divisions, which are threatening to derail the process. In early January, Somalia's interim government troops entered the capital, after defeating Islamist fighters in a string of battles and sending their leaders fleeing for their lives. Re-taking Mogadishu from the Islamists was critical for the interim government, which was formed more than two years ago, but has had no power to legislate or to move beyond its base in Baidoa, 250 kilometers away. Several sources in Mogadishu tell VOA the interim government has so little grassroots support it would have been nearly impossible for the government to establish itself in the capital without the military backing of regional giant, Ethiopia. One source, who wishes to be identified only as Ibrahim, says the government's close ties with a country many Somalis dislike and distrust have only deepened the government's unpopularity. "The Transitional Federal Government has never been in Mogadishu, until now, and it came by the assistance of Ethiopia, a historical enemy," he noted. "People feel you are a puppet for Ethiopians and this is losing their credibility with the citizens." It is less than an ideal beginning for the interim government, which has received international recognition but has struggled to shed its reputation as a fragile and weak institution. That is because Somalia's transitional federal government, formed in 2004 in neighboring Kenya, is largely made up of the same factional leaders, who began the country's crippling civil war in 1991, by overthrowing Somalia's dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and carving up the country into personal fiefdoms. Squabbling among the factional leaders doomed more than a dozen other previous attempts to bring the warring sides together. But this time, international and regional diplomats were determined to end Somalia's political anarchy and pushed the warlords to cooperate to form a transitional government. In October, 2004, newly-appointed parliament members elected then-70-year-old factional leader Abdullahi Yusuf as president. Mr. Yusuf is a former military officer from the semi-autonomous Somali region, Puntland, whose forces helped Ethiopia crush a militant Somali nationalist group called al-Itiyaad al-Islamiah in the early 1990's. From 1998 to 2001, Mr. Yusuf served as president of Puntland and remained a close ally of Addis Ababa. To partly demonstrate inclusiveness in the new Somali government, Mr. Yusuf, who is a member of the ***** clan, appointed a member of the rival ****** clan as interim prime minister. Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi hails from the Mogadishu area, where the ****** clan dominates. The former veterinarian has repeatedly pledged to keep factional differences from hindering the work of the transitional government. But, now that the government is in the capital, long-established clan divisions are again proving to be formidable obstacles. According to Mogadishu resident Ibrahim and several other sources, Prime Minister Gedi's ****** clan, whose members formed the core of the ousted Islamic courts and is the clan of many members of the interim government, is deeply unhappy that thousands of government troops, most of whom belong to President Yusuf's ***** clan, are securing the capital. Ibrahim says when Prime Minister Gedi recently ordered the city to disarm, ****** clan members that included several factional leaders in the government, refused because they feared the ***** clan could end up with most of their weapons. "Gedi has Hawiyes against his policies," he explained. "They say, 'If we just transfer the weapons to the government, does that not mean we are disempowering ourselves and empowering other clans?' That is the fear and concern in Mogadishu." Further complicating the issue is the fact that every clan is subdivided into many smaller clans and each one has its own ideas about how things should progress in Somalia. Somali journalist Mohamed Gureh warns that clan tensions are threatening not only to undermine the government's ability to function, but also to cause enough instability and chaos to provide an opportunity for radical Islamists to regroup and attempt a comeback. "If they [the *****] marginalize the ****** clan, it will be like Sunnis in Iraq," he noted. "Everything depends on how the international community understands this and acts." A Somali journalist in Mogadishu, Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed, adds the influence and power of clans in Somali society cannot be underestimated. "We would like to forget the problems of the clans and sub-clans, but we cannot," he said. "When we became a failed state, the only system that we had was the clans." In the past week, Somali experts have called for the West, particularly the United States, to formulate a comprehensive policy on Somalia that is not based solely on counter-terrorism. But, in Somalia's dizzying political environment, Somalis acknowledge that will be an enormously difficult task.

Originally posted by Mujaahid: Red Sea: just like Horn did,when the ICU took over Kismayo,