Castles In The Clouds: Ethiopia’s Mythical Peace Process In Oga'den On April 9th 2010, Reuters reported “An Islamist rebel group which had threatened to attack oil and gas firms exploring a potentially mineral-rich region of Ethiopia has surrendered..“. The report went on to quote Ethiopian regime spokesman Bereket Simon as saying "After discussing with the government, the leaders of the organisation in totality have accepted to abide by the constitution of Ethiopia and desist from any armed practice,”… “The rebels would now disarm and form a political party” . With that began an well planned perception management strategy aimed at three audiences. The first being multinational oil corporations interested in Oga’den, the second western nations interested in the Horn of Africa and the third being ethnic Somalis from Oga’den residing in the diaspora. The objective of this perception management strategy was simple. It was to create the perception that a viable and legitimate peace process was currently underway in Oga’den involving stakeholders that could impact facts on the ground. The purpose of this strategy was to close the door on the internationalization of conflict resolution efforts focused on Oga’den following the embarrassing so-called “elections” which took place in Ethiopia towards the end of May, 2010 resulting in the ruling party and its allies securing 445 out of 447 seats in the national parliament. To analysts this was a curious announcement by the regime. The United Western Somali Liberation Front (UWSLF), the “islamist rebel group” referred to in the report was clearly a spent force residing mainly in Somalia having had no operational capacity in Oga’den since days long gone when it used to call itself Al-Itihaad Al-Islaami fii ******* (AIAI in Oga’den) a franchised offshoot of the larger Al-Itihaad organization assigned to operate in Oga’den. What was interesting to analysts was that the very same Ethiopian regime that had announced the surrender of this organization had not claimed to have any military engagements with them since the 1990’s. However, suddenly, their surrender was being cast as a major achievement. All of a sudden, the regimes officials were speaking up this surrender to the press and anyone who would listen. They had hoped it would get major traction in the media. They were wrong. It became clear to them that peace with the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) was what was needed regain the confidence of oil investors and cast off accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Oga’den by credible international actors. Only a few days after the May 2010 election, Ethiopian dictator Melez Zenawi announced that his regime would soon enter into an agreement with the ONLF. This announcement again came as a surprise and to analysts it was yet another curious development. Could it be that this announcement was for real?. It had been widely known that the ONLF had always been open to direct talks with the Ethiopian regime subject to the presence of a third party international mediator with talks being held in a neutral venue. Could it be that the Melez Zenawi regime was now genuinely ready for peace? On the 2nd of June 2010, the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) issued a statement stating “A claim made by Ethiopian Prime Minister, Melez Zenawi at his most recent press conference that his regime will "soon sign an agreement" with the Oga’den National Liberation Front (ONLF) has no basis in reality and is intended to mislead the international community in general and foreign oil firms in particular. The ONLF wishes to make clear that we have not been, and currently are not, in discussions with this regime.” The ONLF statement went on to say “The ONLF has maintained a principled position that any negotiations with this regime can only take place under the auspices of the international community in a neutral venue with a third neutral party mediator. This regime has consistently refused neutral third party mediation under the auspices of the international community.” If the Ethiopian regime was not talking to the ONLF, then who were they going to enter into a peace agreement with? It seems that the regime itself was not even certain as the agreement expected was later played down when a few unknown figures quietly arrived in Addis Ababa claiming to be senior ONLF officials. The regime was faces with an embarrassing reality. Not one known figure within the ONLF leadership showed up in Addis Ababa to support the regimes claims that it was a about to secure a deal with a major faction of the ONLF. Ethiopia had been had. Moreover, credible reports indicate that individuals who showed up in Addis Ababa counted among them people with a long standing relationship with ONLF intelligence. In short, it was a fumble on the part of the regime and damage control was urgently required. As in all cases when people in power miscalculate, someone has to pay. In July 2010, the regime identified that person as non other than the so-called President of their puppet administration in Oga’den. He was promptly removed from office and replaced with his notorious security chief known to most as Abdi Iley. However, this move was not enough. Something had to be done for Ethiopia to save face. Following this embarrassment, the Ethiopian regime dispatched none other than the notorious General Gebre, known to many as the butcher of Mogadisho, to salvage what he could. It was immediately decided that another meeting needed to be held, this time in Washington DC with individuals in the Oga’den diaspora who had ties to the regime. The thinking was that another attempt could be made to convince the world that the ONLF had entered into a peace process with the Ethiopian regime. Ethiopia had calculated that by meeting with a few Diasporans having no legitimacy or constituency, it could dupe the U.S. administration into participating as a mediator thereby giving the process some legitimacy. By August 1st 2010 it was clear that there would be no third party mediator and Ethiopia’s delegation would meet alone with a few individuals in a hotel in downtown Washington DC. There was little fanfare for the meetings and at its conclusion it was announced simply that there would be further meetings, this time inside Ethiopia. Another failure. While General Gebre’s gamble seems to have flopped, he no doubts will continue his efforts building on his experience in Somalia to carry water for the regime as he seeks to build castles in the sky by forwarding the notion that there is a peace process underway in Oga’den with the ONLF on one side and the regime on the other. What General Gebre and his boss Melez Zenawi fail to recognize is that peace is made with those who yield true power in Oga’den, those who command the armed forces and have the loyalty of the Somali people there. While meetings with a few desperate Diasporans may be convenient for the regime, at the end of the day they are left with the same reality on the ground. The ONLF is still there and still attacking troops of the regime inflicting casualties and gaining momentum on the battlefield. Ethiopia continues to build castles in the clouds failing to recognize that you cannot build on a foundation that is not really there. Oga’den Online Editorial

Bil ka hor July 3, 2010 ayaan ka safray Magaaladda Nairobi ee dalka Kenya anigoo ku wajahanaa dalkeena Soomaaliya waxaana raacay Diyaaradda ay leedahay Shirkadda Juba airways ee sanadkii 1998 la aas aasay, saacad iyo Bar Duulimaad ah waxaan muddo 45 Daqiiqo ah ku hakanay ama transit ku aheyn Garoonka Aden-Adde International Airport oo shaqo sidaas u sii badan aysan ka socon xilligaas. Waxaan fursad u helay in Diyaaradda ka soo dago aniga oo Garoonka oo ay iiga muuqdeen Gawaaridda Ciidanka AMISOM aan isha mariyay dabcana Qalbiga ayaan ka ilmeenayay waxaana niyada ka tiri “Taloow goormaad ka bixi doontaan Guuldarada idinku dhacday”. Caasimad Airport-geeda ay joogaan ciidan Ajaanib ah, dad aanan aqoon waxa ay isku dagaalayaan. Nasiib daro. Xaafadda Buula Xuubeey oo Garoonka Aden-Adde International Airport aan sidaas ooga sii fogeyn garoonka oo ay waalidkeey, walalo iyo asxaaba daganyihiin waan jecla in aan soo maro balse waqtiga transit-ka ee aan heesanay iyo amaandarada jirta darted ayaa kaliftay in aan ku hakado Garoonka. Source

Rudy, you probably have your own definition for the word "Failure".

Originally posted by Jacaylbaro: I was so excited to join the Google Wave but was disappointed once i was there ,,,,, tried to use few more days but never understood. I used it couple of times. My cooworkers and I shared files using it. It lets multiple people update a file at the same time.

Very good news if Mr.Obama meant what we are thinking he meant but he didn't really say what we think he wanted to say. Very good news.

Very good news if Mr.Obama meant what we are thinking he meant but he didn't really say what we think he wanted to say. Very good news.

^well liberal means being open to a lot of things. You gotta be untraditional, unreligious and many other crazy things.

^

^Being Liberal means you are OK with same sex marriage . Are you still liberal? ehe

^LOOL Hablahee.. kan yar baan saxahayay uun.

^Ha cararin dee, that is a sign of losing it. Speaking of intellectuality, as an ex-Mujaahid/Shabab supporter one would think that you would havea better understanding of how Ethiopia controls majority of Somalia because we know you aint blatantly lying LOL. P.s. The reference "BIGFOOT" means something you don't want to know about. Be careful using it since you are a male

d/p

Originally posted by RedSea: The President first thanked: 1. People of Somaliland 2. National Electoral commision 3. Ethiopia 4. EU Please tell me why he chose to thank Ethiopia separately? They are his masters, right?

Originally posted by RedSea: loool Somali galbeed do have administration but it's under the cloak of "Kililka 5aad" with regional flag under that of Federal Ethiopia something you completely oppose. Compare and contrast that with Somaliland which doesn't come under any other form of government besides itself. I do reckon the relationship between Somaliland and Ethiopian has been cozy but it's not a one that is permanent it's based on economical interests and not military. The only xabashis we see wear either suites and come in peace or they polish our shoes in Hargeysa. We never seen any military hardware or anyone brutally murder our children since Afwayne days. Yes, Somali Galbeed has its own administration, it has a president, a cabinet, a parliament and entire regional government. Heck it has its own flag. I choose to oppose that because I don't think that it is right to take orders from a Xabashi prime minister. The admin in Hargaisa is similar to the one in Kilil 5. Frankly, they have one big similarity, taking orders from a XABASHI PRIME MINISTER. Hadii badda gal la dhaho Siilanyo wuu gali. Taas weeye dhibaatada ee fahma ha is giijininee.

Originally posted by RedSea: ^ Ignorance is not a defense, sxb. You paraded baseless article around the forum claiming Silaanyo said it and for which you are unable to confirm to me that it was factual. That to me is just being plain lazy, sxb. How would you feel if I spread falsehood about you without actually having full knowledge of whether or not you said it. It's absurd. Shame on your Zack for spreading falsehood. Maadamo oo aad calaacashay I went ahead and found it for you. Bal ka akhri from a Somaliland Website: READ IT In his message Mr. Mohammed expressed his deep satisfaction of the long-standing relations of friendship and fruitful cooperation between Somaliland and Ethiopia. He said Ethiopia is an important ally for Somaliland and specially thanked them for mediating between Somaliland parties during elections delays in 2009. While reaffirming his commitment to strengthen the relations for the good of the two friendly nations, he said: “We are people who return favors,” referring to Ethiopia resolving the 2009-election disputes in the country and during late 1980s when Ethiopia hosted thousands of Somaliland refugees. The newly democratically elected president finally thanked his supporters and the Somaliland public. It is your people, my friend, whose minds are colonized by Ethiopia. Join the revolution to kick the Xabashis out.

^Denial is miyaa? LOL

^So now you are asking for a proof for that news article after you re-read it. It's not my job to find what your uncle (Xabashi puppet) uttered for you. Go find it yourself I will tell you this though, it was the day he was elected, not the inauguration day. Again, stop praising Al-shabaab because they don't like people who advocate for a xabashi puppet entity. Madaxey kaa jari lahaayeen haddeey ku maqlaan LOL. Western Somalia has a regional government as well, it has a president and an entire admin. The admin it has is, however, a xabashi puppet just like the admin in Somaliland is. Swallow that simple fact.

Originally posted by RedSea: Your source is tainted as your opinions, sxb. I posted a video which Jigjiga proudly waves and celebrates Melez Zenawi holding his picture to their chest and reciting beautiful poems in Appreciation. Fabricating and distorting the words of Silaanyo so that they sound way you want to sound is not a proof that Somaliland is controlled by Ethiopia. We are free and proud People and you're are in struggle against Ethiopia much luck to you on that front however you just need to reflect on your status quo and start winning some new friends. Waa intaasun. Did you listen to Silaanyo's inaguaration speech or a video? well I did and he thank all the delegates taht came to his inaugural ceremony among them Ethiopia, Djabouti, Kenya cetra cetra. the people who write stuff like that need to be ashamed of themselves for distorting facts. Here is the speech forward to the 8th minute for Silaanyo's speech. Hear it from the horse's mouth. Beenta iska daaf ninyow nin wayn baad tahee. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srtXbHl7Pa8&feature=player_embedded Far-ta Soomaaliga baa kugu adag baan u gartay, the link I posted never mentioned inauguration speech. Siilaanyo markuu doorashada ku guuleystay ayuu hadal qoraal ah soo saaray, this was way before the inauguration. Waxuu u mahad celiyay marka koowaad Ethiopia, marka labaad dadkii u codeeyay, marka sedexaad xisbiyada la tartamay LOL. Dib usoo akhri what I posted and then address it properly. LOOL@forward it to the 8th minute. Midda kale, unless you are in complete denial, you know that Somaliland is CONTROLLED by Ethiopia. Hate it or Hide it, you aint free. Denying it won't change that fact.

Originally posted by RedSea: Ceeb: I supported Alshabab out of political conviction that I had which was that they were the best solution to Somalia' long civil wars. My support for Somaliland is certainly on different level since it's where I'm from. I had nothing against Rayaale's government, I opposed it based on merits not clannish reasons mind you. I think your being over simplistic. I opposed Rayaale's government after because of corruption and nepotism, Silaanyo as opposition leader and will be the first to hold his feet to the fire if he screws up. As for your clan conviently aligning into certain corner I could say I am more closely related with faisal Ali waraabe than Silaanyo and yet I was never a big fan of Faysal. Go figure. Very poor reply. Try again. Nobody will believe that Riyale wasn't from your clan and he was a corrupt, that Godane was from your clan and you started supporting the shabaab group immediately after he took over, that siilaanyo is the new Somaliland president from your clan and you support him for other reasons. Too many coincidences, wey is qaban la'dahay bahashu.

Hargeysa oo amaan iyo mahad celin u jeedisay Melez Adeer gumeysigu wuu ina wada heysta, the difference between you and I is I don't deny it, I fight against it.

Originally posted by RedSea: looool@ Sanaag is my cousins' town. In politics there are no cousins, sxb. Haven' your learned anything from the Puntland handing over of ocaden fellas and recent skirmishes in certain Galgala mountains. There are no friends in politics only common interests...political 101. Says the man who supported Mogadishu's Godane for clanish reasons, the man who opposed Riyale for clanish reasons, the man who now supports siilaanyo for clanish reasons. Practice what you preach waryaa!

^LOOL ma xanaaqday? Your refugee cousins in my Jigjiga do better job in Xabashi boot-licking.

^LOL. Good job on avoiding to address all the questions I have asked. Arinta aad fahmi weyday Che wuu fahmay, inuu wax is dhex socdo baad moodday. It aint my fault that you fell short on that. Somaliland will NEVER get recognition therefore making you part of (which you already are) Somalia will not be difficult. Si Xabashiga Somali Galbeed looga xoreeyo waa in puppet-kiisa Somalia joogo madaxa laga garaaco marka hore. Priorities sxb, priorities Sanaag is my cousins' town, I can spell it the way I want take that.

^Hold up, hold up nigga, whats with the new outlook and the cheap talk. Weren't you that Mujahid Shabaabi that was going to rule the entire Somali peninsula with the Sharia law? What happened fella? Is your uncle Godane not doing so great these days? Oh wait, I know what it is, a closer uncle in clan wise is now the "new president" of the triangle that you hail from? Huh? Is that what it is? Since you took the time to give me an emotional "advice" about my ambitions let me give u a better advice. How about you focus on freeing your three-town-enclave from the tigray's mental colonization and stop attempting to include people's lands to your so called Somaliland dreams. Give some advice to your puppet uncle in Hargeisa who the first words uu ku hadaaqay were " I want to thank Ethiopia for ....." LOL. Once that homework is done, try to convince reer Sool and Sanaag (who will NEVER accept your I-land enclave) to join you. Waa sidaas weeye.

Dabshid, Duke will tell you Yussuf was a better leader than Barre LOL. Aduunka wax kasta waad arki.