Thursday, July 03, 2008 The analysis in post D'jibouti agreement between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia failed to address potential obstacles to the peace agreement that would cause its failures. Most of these analysis focused mainly on one party to the conflict and failed to critically examine all sides of the conflict by merely putting emphasis on the emerging cleavage and widening philosophical differences between the leadership within the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia; that is whether their disagreement is recipe for the complete collapse of the agreement before its implementation begins. By viewing the Accord through the lens of one perspective, fails to objectively examine the overall accord. In this essay I will try to present a different analysis as a rejoinder to these perspectives by examining all sides of the conflict including Ethiopia and Eritrea as outside spoilers and potential catalysts for the failure of this peace agreement, as well as present some suggestions to counter these obstacles. It’s noteworthy to highlight that I am a proponent of this Accord, yet skeptical about its success and very concerned about some of the provisions in the agreement. Many of the write-up in the aftermath of the D’jibouti agreement expressed optimism yet unfairly over-emphasized the disagreement among the Alliance leadership as the likelihood catalyst for the failure of the agreement by spreading defeatist notions before the ink dried up; implying that the Alliance will not deliver what they have agreed to, due to the emerging disagreement among its leadership. In fact this is just a fig leaf intended as a smoke screen for Ethiopia's ambitious dream to prolong its illegal occupation by putting blame squarely on the disagreement between the ARS leadership. In hindsight, when taken into account the following factors, it becomes obvious any violation of the agreement is likely to arise from the TFG/Ethiopian opposition and not as a result of the conflict within the ARS, because the ARS is united in a matter of principle for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops through military or political solution. Ethiopia an outside spoiler As demonstrated by the deeds and actions of Ethiopia in the past, it has always played an outside spoiler in all the past Somali peace agreements and perpetuated the Somali crises for the past 17 years and illegally invaded Somalia on December 2006. In his response to this invasion, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia stated that "Our defense force has been forced to enter a war to defend [against] the attacks from extremists and anti-Ethiopian forces and to protect the sovereignty of the land." This could not be farther from the truth, as Ethiopia has been Somalia's perennial enemy and its desire to cause eternal crisis in Somalia is its chief objective. As Quincy Wright (1965:2) rightly notes that war can't be said to be occurring when the antagonists do not recognize each other as participants, but see the opponent simply as an obstacle to the achievement of certain goals, as geographical barrier might be. From national security perspective, the Union of Islamic Courts could not pose danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is more than capable to deal with threats from poorly armed militia. Accordingly, stakes are even higher for Ethiopia this time around for the following assumptions and it will utilize every trick in the book to derail the D'jibouti accord to pursue its historic hegemonic interest in the region: a) The financial life-line that has been feeding Ethiopia’s regime for the past two years to fight off Islamic threats, real or imagined is likely to be cut off if the D'jibouti Accord is implemented and Ethiopia is forced to withdraw its troops from Somalia. b) There is the likelihood that potential domestic uprising due to food shortage and higher unemployment rates as a result of draughts and Ethiopian government's regressive domestic policies. c) The power of the puppet government of Mr. Yusuf will be extremely diminished to the extent of any power sharing agreement that arises from the D’jibouti Accord will not serve the interest of Meles Zenawi. Moreover, the geopolitical interest of Ethiopia is at play here and wants to keep Somalia in perpetual chaos; a case in point is this open letter titled "ETHIOPIA IS BEING CIRCLED BY ITS ENEMIES" and is addressed to the Ethiopian Diaspora, intellectuals, Ethiopian nationalists and government officials. In it the writer Mr. Tecola W. Hagos of Washington DC urges them to prevent the proposed D’jibouti reconciliation efforts initiated by the head of UNPOS, H.E. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla, and the writer uses religion and nationalism as the basis for his reasoning and why it is obligatory on every Ethiopian citizen to take every step necessary to challenge and oppose Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla’s peace initiative. The writer demonizes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla by tearing apart the envoy's personality and tarnishes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla's report to the UN Security Council and claims the report is "a direct threat to the very existence of Ethiopia". .pdf"]http://www.tecolahagos.com/Article_UN_Somali_Envoy2[1].pdf . Subsequently, during the peace process Ethiopia's ambassador in D'jibouti attempted to derail the peace process, and when that failed the feared head of the Ethiopian Intelligence Services in Somalia, Mr. Gabre was dispatched to influence the TFG delegation and as stated by many close observers to the process accepted the agreement when amended to include a provision that will give a face-saving exit to the Ethiopians into the agreement in article Seven section B in which ' the TFG will act in accordance with the decision that has already taken by the Ethiopian Government to withdraw its troops from Somalia after the deployment of a sufficient number of UN forces". As illustrative by the bolded italic, that addition was made to indicate Ethiopia has already made a decision to withdraw, when in fact it was included to meet the demands made by Ethiopia’s Gabre. TFG as an inside spoiler Though Ethiopia failed to wreck the outcome of the D’jibouti Accord to its benefit, its cronies in Baydhabo are at full force to hamper the peace process to serve their masters in Addis Ababa. According to local sources in Baydhabo, parliamentary members closely allied with the Ethiopians are contemplating to introduce a motion to remove the TFG Prime Minister to create political crisis that will bring down his government and open doors to new opportunities to justify Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia for a protracted time and eventually kill the entire peace process. Others including the TFG president are making controversial statements on local radios to discredit the accord by attacking the personalities associated with peace process. Other members of the TFG parliament will oppose simply for their personal interest as they benefit from the war economy and aid and donor money, while they are also concerned about what the uncertain future holds for them. Recommendations As Sally Healy of Chatham House puts it in her latest report, ‘Ethiopia has become deeply embroiled in Somali politics and has invested too heavily to settle for a quick exit.’ Indeed, the terrorism rhetoric by Meles Zenawi is just a devious ploy and what drives fundamentally its policy is the existing dispute with Eritrea. And this is equally true with respect to Eritrea and that the welcome reception extended for the ARS is not what shapes its policies towards Somalia, but is using the presence of the ARS as bargaining chip to divert international attention from its regressive domestic policies and its border dispute with Ethiopia, a case in point is its opposition to the currently signed D'jibouti Accord. Given these realities, and the fact that both are using Somalia to conduct their dirty proxy war and both have captive audiences that could derail the peace process, it is paramount that following steps are taken concurrently; 1) The UNPOS must ask the immediate deployment of the UN troops in Mogadishu without any delay and immediately ask the Ethiopian troops to completely withdraw from Somalia. This will give credit to the agreement as opponents of the accord will have less influence to inflame opposition to the deployment of UN troops. 2) Support the ongoing dialogue between and within the ARS. While it is also necessary to make the process more inclusive and invite the likes of Sheikh Hassan Aweys as he can influence the military wing of the Alliance and is in a position to woo the Al-shabab wing of the Alliance. 3) Pressure Ethiopia not to act as a spoiler to the peace process as it has always done in the past. 4) Urge the International Community to support the peace process politically and logistically without any delay as it is regrettable the UN Security Council has not yet discussed the peace agreement and did not pass a resolution with respect to this peace accord. Author info: Abdirizak Omar Mohamed is and independent researcher and a member of Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance who holds Masters degree in Environmental Studies focusing on post-conflict development from York University, Toronto and can be reached at Email: abdirizakom@gmail.com

double posted.

^Burcawi ha ubaxin saaxib. The choice for me is simple. If this was somali civil war, I wouldn't take sides but since this is a foreign enemy invading close to home then the obvious choice is to support those whom you share both blood, faith, and ethnicity. Even the Somali djabuuti, NFD somalis and Somali galbeed support the Muqdisho masses. It has nothing to do with anything but has alot to do with whom is invovled, Ethiopia.

castro and Paragon, i agree with you saaxibaayal. Let me tell you the whole intent and purpose of this thread. All I had done is I took the same argument of Duke, Xiinfaniin, Baashi and just fliped the other side. When I speak against the TFG and their Ethiopian masters for the simple fact that they have illegally invaded somalia. I get the blame that I am somehow double dealing because the Ethiopians use or have used berbera port and Faysal Cali Waraabe has made some stup1d comments about 4 or 5 years ago.I thought as individuals we are only liable for what we say and not what our supposed leaders or home regions do. But it turns out I am wrong and people actually do hold people liable for the actions of their adminstrations. when I say Ethiopia, folks run towards Berbera and make the silly remark that 'Ethiopians use berbera too' comments. It was Xiinfaniin who himself said that we as somaliland should stop helping Ethiopian if we are sincere. If one was to play a fair game and we went with that logic here then mr. Xiinfaniin would be responsible and should be blamed for what Puntland state has contributed to this cause, the invasion that is. By the way, The Ethiopians do use Pland's southern end to infiltrate into Southern Somalia. That is just pure fact and can't be denied. anyhow that is beside the point and the point of the thread is let us if we are going to hold everyone responsible for what Faysal had said 4yrs ago, and the cozy relatins Rayaale has with Ethiopia, then it's only a fair game to blame Planders for Cade Muse money laundering bussiness, the Port of Bosaaso's human traficking, or the Pland state direct contributions to TFG in terms of militia and money to help out however they can to the continues occupation of Somalia. hadii kale let us drop this nonsense. Because I swear everytime one brings the Berbera port statement I will bring this up. Do we have a deal folks.

looooooooooooooooool Faarax. Great info. I am sure it will be usefull to some here.

Adeer waa adigan markii somalia arimaheeda laga hadlo kusoo ordaya ee leh somalia ayaad kala qaybinaysaan maadama aad somaliland katimid eh ee bal ii sheeg waanagay Pland ama halkaad kasoo jeedo midnimo somalia ay ugashay? Adiga weeye ninka Pland faaninaya ee kusheegay in ay tahay dhulka wanaaga iyo ehlul diintu ay joogto. Waxaad qarisay dhibta ay gaadhsiisay somalida kale sida reer Muqdisho. Kamaad hadal dadka reer Pland ay bada ku guraan ee dekada bosaaso. Kamaad hadal taageerta ay reer Pland ufidiyaan TFG haday tahay ciidan iyo taageero afba. Maxaad uga hadli waydo arimaas. Somaliland somalia inay ka go'do ayunbay rabtaa in ay dhibaatayso marabto mana ku dhacdo, laakin intaad faaninaysid Pland waxa ila haboon inaad sheegto waxay gaysteen waa hadii aad waxaad sheeganayso aad tahay. Hadii kalena hadalkaago waa waxba kama jiraan Duke iyo noociisana waxba ma dhaantid. Inaad Pland kasoo jeedo oo aad xigsato adiga uunbaa kaa maqlay. Waxan iska samaystay maaha. Markaa qabiil waa ku hayaa beena maaha wayna kaa muuqataa. Kolay dad waad dhaanta laakin waa present. 'kulu shakhsin yarjucu ilaa ahlihii' markaa Mudug ayaad uhadashaa badanka.

Adeer stay on topic. The battle against the Ethiopians in Somalia is spearheaded by Alshabaab. They are the front line fighters in this fight. Xiin please tell us where the Alshabaab were consulted, and how they were included in this? A word over the air from someone who has scaped the heat of the battle doesnt cut it.

^Sorry got it mixed up. Bandiiradley is what I was shooting for.

Allahu Akbar. That is sweet way to die. God bless the mujaahideen.

^^^Adeer that is exactly what I am honest. I dont' need to hide where I am from, who I am and everything. You haven't address the real questions sxb. How could you be in support of occupation in Parts of the country by Ethiopian forces and yet be pro unity and peace loving brother? If you can make a reasonable effort, I swear I won't bother your lot again. My support for Somalia' struggle to liberate themselves is a brotherly one, somali one, a Muslimnimo one.

The Ethiopian troops have entered the country from different points. They entered through Hiiraan region, Mudug region via Galkacayo, Bandiiradley, and Bay in Baydhabo. Currently, the Ethiopians are being handled well in Hiiraan region even Beledwayne the state capital falling to the resistance, resistance also operates and captures towns in Bay and Bakool almost every week. The only region where the battle is absent is the other strong of the Ethiopia where they entered through the country to fight the resistance is Mudug region specifially areas like Galkacayo and Bandiiradely. The Ethiopians poured into Galkacayo enroute to Bandiiradley, Mudug, even eye witnesses reported it, the news sites reported itbroadcastings in somalis reported it. where were you? Of the headlines..... "Ethiopian Troops Capture Bandiriley, in Galka'yo Mudug" Galka'yo, Aug 22, 2006 (Shabelle Media Network/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) -- Reports from Mudug region say that heavily armed forces reportedly combined of Ethiopians and PuntLanders, the Somali autonomous region in northeast Somalia, have seized Bandiriley, a village 60 km away from Galka'yo in Mudug region. The Union of Islamic Courts spokesperson in Galinsor about 100 km south of Galka'yo, Mahamood Mohammed Juma'ale known as Ago-weyne, has confirmed to Shabelle in a telephone interview that an exchange of fire took place between a few number of Islamists in ...

Adeer do you know where I am from. I am from Hargeysa, somaliland. I am pro seccesion and seperate somaliland. OK. Are we clear on that? I love it to death. It's my homeland and where I was bred. I would never allow anyone to harm it. That is for my case anyway. Now since you said Pland is part of the south and in line with the rest of somalis. How come you are in approval of the occupation of that part of the country? or are you again playing the unity card on one hand and the pro killing of Muqdisho citizens on the other? Bal fadlan iikala cadee intaas adna. Somalia waan jeclahay, laakin magaalo madaxdaydii in dhulka lala simo waa taageersanahay masoconayso.

Originally posted by xiinfaniin: PL is not the enemy’s QT! It’s the land of the pious! Only men of religion live there. I am really shocked that you agree with Redka to attack it! I am not sure about Berbera and Jabbuuti though. I can’t vow for them. That is mr. Xiin at his best ladies and gents. Okay what about all the unholy things that are going on there horta. Most of you'll are thinking what has gotten into this guy? Well this is how some folks have started to 'reason' as of late. So am just tring to show the flip side of their reasoning lest they get where I am coming from. Puntlanders got a free pass to critize whom they want to and oppose whom they don't desire and no one seems to linked them to their home state which is the source of alot of problems lately. I bet mr. Xiin knows alot about (1) human traficking in port of Bosaaso. (2) Somalis being handed over to Ethiopia (yes somaliland is mentioned mostly) (3)Ethipian bases inside Puntland where they have planned and coornated their attacks from. (4) the Somalis from South being turned back from Galkacayo airstrip. (5) The continues fake money that is being put out by Pland state causing inflation (6) The piracy who hijack ships which carry alot of aid reliev for the suffering masses almost daily. Xiin what do you also say about Planders almost undivided support for the old dog, the Ethiopian puppet who took off from Mudug to be entrusted with a somalia' presidency throne only to bring along univited guest to the house. Emperor, Yes Ethiopians have entered though mudug as well. How come you dont' even remember it was only one year and a half ago that Ethiopian troops entered Galkacayo enroute to diinsoor, bandiiradley, and other areas where they fought the Islamic Courts union. Duke, Let us see how your warlord uncle hold against the Alshabaab. will he always rely on Ethiopia to be there for him. Your cowardly knows he can't stand a day against the fierce Islamic fighters that is why he always cries to Xabashi help. Only one in history.

Northerner, You are great man saaxib. As honest and as cool as anyone can get around here. Abti you seem to get what I was implying all of these days. The fake unionists camp is crying today. Apparently they were having such a smooth sailing by playing the union card to try to hide their double standard. Furtunately thanks to you and many others here they have been unvielded, their true colors revealed to everyone. They are now butt-naked in public. So everytime when from SL tries to show his/her condolence to southern Somalia's civilians who are being killed massively, being forced out of their homes, they shout why you care? you are from somaliland which supports Ethiopia too. That to me is the most idiotic way of reasoning. but the good news is they can't seem to fool anyone. Every thinking somali knows who is doing the double standard. Who is cheering for Ethiopia's invasion on one hand and call for peace and unity on the other. It's them not us. Great read walal.

loooooooooool....waryaadheen way waalatay meeshii.

Originally posted by General Duke: Northerner: Adeer you talk about leadership and its base in honesty. Who leads the secessionists? Dahir Riyaale Kahin, a former spy of Siyad Barre and Qad merchant. Faisal Warrabe, has anyone from the TFG parliament of 275 members ever made the comment Warrabe did with regards to Ethiopia? Look at Awil and so on. Thus yet again you make nonsocial utterances without self reflection. The Asamara/Al Shabaab group is pro unity, with their differences and their pretences they hold the same position as the TFG and I would say they would invade the North West without even flinching if they had the power. Thus if we look at it from a historical point, from current events you have no point what so ever. Secessionists have not only sold their mothers, but they have sold the very idea of Somalia, they have tried to dance not only with Ethiopia but the likes of Peter Thatchel to get their “recognition. Cayrow Jr, you are right Puntlanders support TFG and unity and deplore secessionists and clan fanatics. Try to reflect what you just said. The Alshabab and TFG are wordly differnent on everything. The Enemy of the state in the eyes of Alshabaab is the TFG and their Ethiopian allies. They don't even consider you to being A Muslim let alone anything else. They strive and go to battle for your misery everyday. They are not the enemy of Somaliland, however they are the enemy of those whom you cheerlead for and the Ethiopian invaders. You better believe sooner or later, they will win the battle and all hell will let loose on your TFG. Then let us see where 'unity' gets you that day shall we? majority of Planders like you support the oppression done to civilians by the Ethipian troops in Southern Somalia. They actually have delight each time Xamar is being bombarded. Empty call for unity is just a rehotric and nothing more. Ask any southerner in here. They will laugh at your face with that call of unity. I think you of all people and TFG supporters should be the last to preach about unity around here. You can't fool or convince anyone but yourself and likes.

check out Badhan saaxib. That is ur new region now.

How bout 'dhabtuu jacaylku yaalaa, dhabtuu jacaylku yaaalaa" lool@hadaan wax la dhabin wax lama dhalo. :eek:

Stoic you are my tolka loool, just so you know.

lol..wlc. Meeshan waa la isku karsadaaa markaa waxaan ku odhan lahaa sun screen soo qaado.

It's obvious the Ethiopians are pouring into somalia from this region. Do you think The Al shabaab should somehow create a force to cut off their supply lines coming into somalia via Puntland so that they could disable them in some way.

From the looks of it, it's one magaalo state. It extends from Baligubadle, half distance to Hargeysa and half distance to the west of Gabiley. Basically maroodi jeex is divided twice now. Once gabiley and now Baligubadle.

Al shabaab must be consulted. It's Sheekh Sharif and Dahir Aweys's responsibility to convice them. Surely the disagreement started somewhere in the first place. So it needs to be worked out in order to make the resistance stronger. But while such disagreement exists between the resistance groups I believe peace is inevitable.

Why are you denying the facts. IT'S TRUE MOST THAT SUPPORT THE TFG ARE FROM MUDUG/BOSAASO? What is so secretive about that. Mise been inaan sheego ayaad rabtaa.

looool...adeer Xiin, somalia arimaheeda igama xigtid ee maad iska nasatid. Haday timaado cida somalinimo iyo somalia dhibta ugaysatay waa lawada ogsoonyahay markaa ha iska dhigina inaad somalia aad usoo wadaan wanaag. Galkacayo ayey ahayd meeshii laga celiyey dadka somaliyeed Hargeysana lagu soo dhaweeyey, bosaaso weeye meesha laga tarxiilaa dadka oo bada lagu guraa. Waana Galkacayo halka uu kasoo jeedo Abdullahi Yusuf markaa adoo intaas oo godob ka galay somali maxaad in aad cid kale wax kasheegtaa mahoboontay? Xamar anaa kaagan guryo badan, oo hanti badan ayaa anagaba nagaga jirta. Adigu xamar kamaad iman, nin rer mudug ah ayaad tahay. Kashafa oo kasoo jeeda Xamar ayaa afkiisa ka yiri somaliland ayuu ka xigsadaa meelaha qaar(:. Again, Xamar igama xigtid, adiga iyo Baashi markaa ha iska dhigina Godly assigned ambassadors of Somalia on SOL boards. Hadii ay noqoto resitance name on rer Mudug dude in there. The current Al shabaab commander is actually from Burco. His name is Mukhtar Abuzhuyr. In case you didn't know.