There are no guarantees for anything Ayoub, this would not be a movie, who could have believed in 1997 that within a few short months the "brotherly" regimes of eriteria and ethiopia would be at war? In 1991 the E.P.L.F gifted its cadres and waponry to the T.P.L.F enabling it to be the predominant armed force with in ethiopia, if Siad Barres regime was still marginally strong as in pre-1988 he might have taken the opportunity of the fall of mengistu's regime to back other players in ethiopia, there by denying the fait accompli the T.P.L.F had gained with E.P.L.F support.

When Hannibal was laying waste to the roman hinterland army after army was sent against him, the romans trained their armies better, they were fighting for their land and consequently morale was high, eminent citizens were sent against Hannibal, generals of repute failed, novel tactics were deployed and hitherto never seen weapons of war failed against what was qualitatively an inferior army made up of a hodgepodge of mercenaries and myriad nationalities.Pound for pound Hannibal was the better strategist where the troops under his command fought with the determined frenzy of men far from home and won every single battle against the romans. This was the status quo until one man decided to look at the problem from a different angle Scipio Africanus realised the only way to defeat Hannibal and bring the war of attrition being fought in roman lands to a definite end was to attack what in strategic terms is refered to the center of gravity of the enemy, first elucidated by Von clausewitz the idea was to attack the center of gravity of the enemy. This how ever did not only entail the attacking of the enemies headquarters or some other simplicity the center of gravity of the enemy that most integral part of their makeup could mean alot of things, in the case of Hannibal Africanus set sail and attacked carthage, carthage provided the money, and the trickle of manpower that Hannibal could use to make good his losses and continue with his adventures in roman lands while failing to be desicive enough to force and end to an issue. Hannibal for the first time had to REACT to the play put in place by Africanus rather than set the agenda, he was forced to return to carthage and lead the defence of the motherland of carthage [around present day Tunis] at the battle of Zama Africanus having learnt the lessons of carthagian warfare used mercenary numidan horsemen to strike the desicive blow that defeated the great Hannibal. The scenario Xiin is putting forth is just a variation of the same strategy with in the somali context. Among the right channels my arguments have been exactly the same. Right now somalia is dismembered and is shaded by the umbrella of pax ethiopica, in somaliland riyaale holds sway and after the election what ever ideas that might be held by some in somaliland, the reality that a tyranny or dictatorship shall never end it self will become obvious, in puntland venality is the norm and before the galvanizing actions of somaliland in las canood puntland was breaking apart at the seems under the weight of a minuscule elite's trepidations on the treasury and body politics of that particular bantustan. In somalia proper a cabal of warlords parlay as the mortar shells go off every night. The common denominator is that the present "leadership" of the Somali people derive their legitimacy from the intervention of Ethiopia. [a case in point is Abdullah yusuf and the saga of puntland, I do not wish to enter into the irrelevancies of local politics but the bottom line is that he was restored to his position at the barrel of an ethiopian gun cest tous]. Now there are some of you who feel that this situation is desirable, these are the people who believe right is might always, what they fail to understand is that might changes and what is right today will be wrong tommorow. So how would a weak or to all purposes non-existent Ethiopia mean for the other Somalis who are not enamored in the Stockholm syndrom represented by the Ethiopian military and financial underpinning of the current Somali reality. Somalis could make their own decisions, in Somalia as a whole it would be the final extinguishing, the drying up of the source, the ending of the support for the warlords, for the war profiteers, and for those that ignore the voices of the people for a phone call from addis ababa Regardless if you are a somalilander a puntlander or a somaliweyn exponent, I feel that this change of climate would be conducive to the sort of real attainment of political goals, and the creation of administrations based on the will of the people. That is one criteria that Baashi has failed to fulfill in his mental walk abouts on fadhiku heeshis, Baashi has and I have seen this in all his posts where he talks about a meeting of minds across the negotiating table that will ultimately lead to a Somalia that is left to build its own institutions with out foreign interference, failed to illustrate the dynamics of negotiation, namely one never gives up an advantage to reach a goal, this means that ethiopia will not give up its direct interference in somalia, and its goal in the end is a weak somalia. To think that honest and nationalistic discourse and resolution of issues will occur under the glowering visage of ethiopia is to be utopian in your thoughts and rubbish to the extreme. Here Baashi you make the same mistake that the chicken hawks or keyboard waranles make, this mistake has nothing to do with distance from the action on the ground Baashi but the following of a line of thought mercilessly to its logical conclusion, if you had you would recognize drivel and empty rhetoric for what it is,in somali and english and delete some of your threads. But I digress Let us look at Xiin's objectives, and determine their possibility and reasonableness -Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords. -Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords. 2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived. 2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived. 3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara. 4- ****** must be reunited with the Somali republic. 5- Somalia must bring eastern Ethiopia in its sphere of influence after incorporating ****** region. 6- after about 20 years of creating new reality in Abyssinia, Somalia and Eritrea must come into agreement to share Ethiopia’s human resources to. -Ethiopia must be defeated, and broken into mini tribal enclaves with warlords. Firstly what we must all realise is the existential threat that the ideas of somalia and ethiopia are to each other. The notion of somalia, muslim, united under one language, culture and religion legitimised by the popular support of the consulted masses is the polar opposite of the idea of ethiopia as a multicultural melding of 70 million disparate entities under the absolute domination of one or the other tribal elite. As if this was not enough to create cool relations between the two entities, the gerrymanding of colonial masters led to 30% of the land mass of Somalia being outside it in the hands of ethiopians and through the gerrymanding of god, ethiopia's 70m people are for ever faced with the reality of no access to the sea. The TPLF goverment if defeated will fight for the ethnic balkanization of Ethiopia any body who has a smidgen of knowledge of the Ethiopian governments development and political record will realize the mentality of the TPLF is dedicated not to the a united Ethiopia but one that is finely balanced on the lines ethnic intreasts and not one based on a universal unifying and justifiable national ethos. It is safe to say that thetendencyof Ethiopian politics in the case of defeat by eriteria or through internal attrition will to the same as in Somalia although the attempts of the west to halt the decline of their client state will be immense and will make their attempts in somalia look like the resolving of a little local difficulites. So not only is xiin justified in asking for the defeat of ethiopia and it break up in to mini enclaves, I would inform him that in the case of a defeat that would happen anyway. 2- The Somali state must be resurrected, and revived. Who could argue with this, the somalilanders would have a chance to negotiate with a legitimate goverment in a govermental framework involving the U.N that could bring their dreams of independence to reality, the federalists such as puntland could dictate the creation of a federal dispensation with in somalia that safeguards their rights, the islamists would be free to affect their agenda with out the direct interference of the ethiopians all with in the then possible dirrin format, with out the interference of our next door neighbour. 3-After five years of a bloody civil war between them, the Tigrinya and Amhara tribes must be given a hand to produce dominant warlords that get orders from Asmara. You forget the oromos and the Sountern ethnic groups like the sidama, as well as the direct intreast of the sudan in the gambella and other border regions of ethiopia. What are the arguments against what xiin has said? The moral argument I refered earlier to the idea of the existential struggle going on in the horn, Ethiopia has a strategy it has nothing to do with meles or mengistu or selassie indeed the different political milieus of the a forenamed individuals still lead to a common strategy for somalia namely keep it weak. A weak Somalia is a complacent Somalia, what few people here realize is the C.U.D's support of the strategy being used against Somalis while deploring the tactics of the TPLF regime in mogadishu. If this is the case then the zero sum game being played out in somalia can as easily occur in ethiopia indeed even more easily with even worse results. If this makes some of us squeamish, while not condemning you I ask which moral framework do espouse which will prevent the present tactical actions of Ethiopia in Somalia as well as its strategic plans for Somalia? Ethiopia's involvement in somalia has meant the proping up of illigitimate groups and warlords, and the suffocation at birth of any movement that wished to counteract the actions of this cancer on the somali body politic, the TNG was frustrated and the ICU cornered all the while ethiopias agents in somalia have brought the country to its knees. One cannot hold something down with out holding down the adjoining By retarding Somalia, how can Ethiopia hope to prosper? I do not mean this in terms of revenge or what ever but does Ethiopia exist in a vacuum? Is it immune to what infects its neighbors? the Ethiopian elite do not think so they keep Somalia and Sudan weak recognizing the threat that emanates from this entities, but what do these entities have as a plan for Ethiopia?? Mark my words it will be futile for all of those that wish for a democratic and strong somalia, to think of these issues in terms of somalia alone, I have to congratulate both Che and Xiin for getting the missing part of the map, Somalia and ethiopia are in a deadly embrace. Xiin has articulated what he feels the strategy vis a vis ethiopia is. What is yours? P.S To ngonge Brother you are walking a fine line, the politics section is full of wish full thinkers but some times people attempt to articulate ideas that with in contain the kernels of a paradigm shift, would it surprise you that the ONLF and OLF as well as the SDMO are starting to come around to the same ideas espoused by xiin? What if this organisations met with the A.R.S and had broadly painted out this very scenario in asmara? Would that not be a concrete application of xiins theories?? But ngonge you moving from being the guy with the insights and the intreasting tidbits to that annoying kid who says and then? and then? and then? and construes the silence of his seniors as the winning of an argument? perhaps ngonge your persona as the resident cynic is fraying at the collar, people recognize the futility of life where as the cynic discovers this fact every day. Let us just say I am getting bored of you realising the futility of things on SOL on every thread with less and less of a humurous riposte. With out humor the cynic is no longer engaging he just becomes a little kid screaming and then and then and then.

Hahaha lotz welcome to being an arsenal fan for the past couple of years and a Chelsea fan for all the other years , where the calculator was ones only solace. Images courtesy of arsenalmania. Liverpool always have the excuses after 17 years that is all that keeps them warm at night. Chealsea will become relevant when all that lotz predicts comes to pass [are you holding your breath]. As for the match there are some developments that make me feel a draw is what should be expected, Technically I think for the first time manu are ahead of arsenal certainly in the midfeild, hope hleb and fabregas are not marked out of the game since who ever else that takes the flak rosicky, diaby e.t.c cannot take the flak. As for tevz and rooney let us see them perform against a defense that is just as fast as they are. For me I think the game might pivot on one man...... Adebayor Is God.

I personally will keep this thread alive until the very last day of the premiership to sing the song it is coming home, its coming home, footballs coming home with a lot more success I hope.

And a borrowed gun at that. This sniveling for recognition for yusuf is seen for what it is, no amount of rewriting history [and so recent at that] will distract from the fact that yusuf and his supporters are unsalvageable and reprehensible. Ultimately Yusuf was needed for Somalia to reach its nadir in so many ways. Really of all the silly things I have seen on politics forum this takes the cake and all possible frosting, to quote sun-tzu in the same breath as yusuf fails in two ways. it fails in associating the idea of strategy with yusufs concubinage to melez zenawi and fails in implying that the qouter of the passage remotely understands what he is talking about. In the end the idea of cult that che has introduced has its advantages in understanding the warped thinking of so many pathetic non-realists on this forum. The idea that puntland moryaan and mohamed dhere moryaan are the basis of a national army as the fatuous "General" calls them or the goverment of parasites setting up a national security apparatus is excreable and truly pathetic. Yusuf controls nothing, yusuf rules over nothing, yusuf is nothing, ultimately every nation needs its patheon of dark forces and historical failures for it to be able to rail against, for it to show its children what wrong behaviour is. The U.S has aron burr, norway has quisling, and somalia yusuf. Strategy kulahaa. pathetic.

Pathetic

Yup the only thing that motivated me to post on here is the mention of ballidhiig forgive me if all these arguments for and against just meld together in my mind, but the mention of ballidhiig changes all that

Ballidhiig, I love that name, needless to say my uncles are ever glued to the radio wishing the puntland militia cross into their turf so they can re-christianize the name of my mothers degmo once again. By the way, I heard that there was a real attempt to rename ballidhiig in to beila-khayr. Amusing.

The cynicsm of this thread is intoxicating

Qanyare is the pall bearer of the geedi administration, he is boxed into the corner identified as an enemy by the goverment both yusuf and geedis camp as well as the mujahideen, he is no longer as financially flush as he used to be after the shut down of dayniile airport. Being the political opportunist that he is he realises that the continuation of the status quo for any longer period of time will mean that he will well and trully fade from the scene. By pretending to support geedi he does several things firstly if Geedi wins this round with yusuf something that will be decided in addis and not inspite of the haluucinations of the yusuf cheerleaders, baidoa, he will have been seen to have supported geedi in his hour of need and kept the H***ye bloc intact at least in the T.F.G, if geedi loses then qanyare who enfin is a cunning man sees himself in the middle of the ensuing clan inferno either as a stoker of the fires or as a peacemaker but never far from the center of it all. In the end there are three results to his actions 1. He supports the winning side and is appointed public security minister by geedi as a bone to the tribalists that are brokering support for the most inspid man in the T.F.G. 2. If he does not manage to wrangle a post with some power [ which in somalia means a militia of some sort and not more cvilised positions like health, education w.t.c] then the very least reward would be the reopening of dayniile airport which would mean a steady source of income that is quite lucrative since he will not have to pay for the upkeep and maintainace of over 2000 militia men out of pocket and since in somalia money is power the future would be bright to the hopefull. 3. the third result if geedi looses is that he continues to be a $1,000 month salaried M.P. As for yalahow, well yalahow is like the donkey in animal farm, you will never see a dead donkey.

Dhulqarnayn has the most realistic view of what is happening. As for the rest...well what preety pictures.

^^^^ Burco lol. Hi brother baashi attempting to be the voice of reason as ever salaam. Read my post on jiimcales thread I can not repeat it maybe it is a good starting point

Hayee hornafrik walaal kuun post and beyond I am so jealous after moryaan the hottentots were positively cuddly Xiin said Brother Liqaye, firstly welcome back! The gist of this gathering is to get some funds from the parties of this conflict! This conference is not going to legitimize this tfg! But that’s neither her nor there! I am all for attacking Ethiopian occupiers and their lackeys. But they do have military bases, they reside in Villa Somalia; some even have their own mansions. There are symbols that represent this entity, and people recognize and know it! Adeer the fact Ethiopia occupies Xamar and tfg claims authority in it does not mean every body who is in there and does not see things as we do is a target! It can’t be adeer! Somalis are very hasty people! You want descridit this conference, habbeen walba huwi a barrage of hoobiyaal at that defunct Villa. Continue with what the resistance has been doing which was to target Ethiopian convoys and logistical supplies. Get rid of the low level operatives who lead the enemy into people’s houses and mosques. But for Gods sake, don’t tell me killing odoyaal who came from a distant land is going to buy us anything! Well I doubt highly that I am back but I am certainly paying attention The gist of this gathering is to get some funds from the parties of this conflict! I did not understand that, but I would like to explain what I meant to say by legitimisation, the TFG called this confrence of peace and reconciliation, by accepting an invitation to this confrence you give the impression that the TFG is unbiased and neutral and that it is attempting to quell the local disturbances in mogadishu as any neutral and benevolent goverment would do, by doing so it implies that it is the legitimate goverment, now some would say that the TFG is also a concerned party and the fact it is hosting the confrence is neither hear or there, well a basic tenant of diplomacy is the unity of the negotiating team, the unity of purpose of the TFG is firstly self preservation, the other aims of the TFG is to wring as much as they can in cold liquid cash from the donors, either way by accepting to participate in the confrence you have already done more for their cause than they did for themselves in the past months. There is a legitimate humanitarian concern that you raise xiin that perhaps the united voices of the elders will some how impinge on the genocidal actions being taken by the TFG this does not reflect the reality on the ground, firstly the TFG is not popular and does not have to bend to the whims of the populace how ever many 60 year olds are scrounged up in benaadir, secondly the united voice that you might think is being raised agains the TFG with in the halls of the military camp is simply not there! The elders are divided and unarticulate, they have been outmanouvered from the begining into accepting the confrence firstly under the aegis of the TFG and in not parlaying directly with the puppet masters rather than puppet, already in doing this they have legitimised the mercenaries in villa somalia, but this is not the main concern but rather what the confrence shall produce, the elders have very few demands they can table, they cannot ask the now legitimate TFG to withdraw from mogadishu, neither can they usurp the authority of the TFG in demanding the withdrawal of the ethiopian forces in somalia since that is prerequisite to them verifibly curtailing and extinguishing the activities of the men with motars, which is something they simply cannot do, in the end they do not have the cunning to change the bussiness of the confrence from one of negotiating xamars acquiscience to one of negotiating the TFG in its present form out of existence. Obviously many have gone to the confrence with good intentions but good intentions mean squat diddly to those smiling in xamar today, that the resistance as some insist in calling it is making a hash of it is not a suprise but rather is what I said would happen eventually. Motars have to land and pressure must be brought to bear, what people forget is that quislings are rarely stark raving mad like yusuf and his cohorts but history is littered with those that attempted to negotiate and palliate oppressors only to end up by giving them enough rope to hang them with. Since we now realise that the TFG bears nothing, rewinding the reality on the ground will prolong the suffering futher than is neccessary.

those are all valid points xiin, but beyond kashafas refrences to old history which unlike other history is irrelevant enough to be called old I think there is a valid point that kashafa uses that the TFG and its backers will use the confrence to legitimise actions and descions that I can assure you have been taken before hand, xin you put altogether to much trust in the odayaal there some as you have pointed out that are trustworthy but in the end the handfull of individuals you name are either simply unversed in the machevellian manouvering that shall occur or they do not have the finances to stamp their authority on the dialougue that is occuring in xamar, consequently a confrence that is not opposed in any way and by opposition I do not mean groans and moans from the intreasting animals Aferwerki has managed to collect in asmara, but rather actual opposition on the ground then it is obvious that the odayaal in xamar shall yeild not only to the riches that is being set before them, but also to the only law that all somalis ascribe to regardless of whichever land or polity they subscribe to namely might is right. The coalition of the disaffected in xamar and that is what they are I am sorry to say no application of the word resistance or shabab that might lead to some erring and picturing an organised fightingforce must show that the might of the TFG and by extension the ethiopians is not unchallenged, that this is being done so crudely is very unfortunate but from the political position this confrence should be fully and thoroughly discredited, as for the arguments of innocents being bombed that xiin has put foward, namely all the odayaal in xamar with beutifull xamari imaamas, from here they do not look so innocent as these doddering, semi-literate stinking cabal of self appointed sultan,ugases and elders are alternatively, sweet talked, strong armed and corraled into acting out a role in the legitemising the TFG they neither understand and consequently should be reminded of the futility of doing so.

Our Man in Africa ... the Conqueror of the Horn of Africa ... or why sometimes the enemy of your enemy is not always your friend. (With great apologies to Patton). ...................................... We don't have the money to take the burden individually. The international community should provide funding. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's dictator The Ethiopian government is among the most corrupt in the world. Transparency International Ethiopia is one of the United States’ most important partners because it shares and supports many of our strategic goals ... the United States remains deeply concerned about Ethiopia’s domestic political environment. Donald Yamamoto, U.S. Ambassador elect The aftermath of Ethiopia’s landmark May 2005 parliamentary elections has laid bare the deeply entrenched patterns of political repression, human rights abuse and impunity that characterize the day-to-day reality of governance in much of the country. Human Rights Watch Despite its serious internal flaws, the government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi did civilization a great favor. Ralph Peters, columnist We must stop pretending that Ethiopia is run by a respectable government when in fact it has a murderous and oppressive regime. Ana Gomes, E.U. Parliamentarian He may be an SOB but he's our SOB. President Franklin Roosevelt All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you. President George Bush Ethiopia's human rights record is 'not a factor' in the bilateral relationship. Senior U.S. State Department Official Ethiopia is one of the ten worst violators of press freedom in the world. Reporters Without Borders We have now decided not to sell any more Humvees to the Ethiopian army. Vicki Huddleston, charge d’affairs at the U.S. embassy ............................. The quotes tell the whole story but there is more detail below: Certainly, self interest guides the foreign policy of any responsible government but what should be done when America's African interests and Ethiopia's very life are in the hands of a dictatorship run on behalf of a tiny and greedy revolutionary feudal aristocracy? One can assume that some variety of short sighted American interest is being pursued in American foreign policy in East Africa but no such assumption can be made about the behaviour of the Ethiopian regime. No matter how much anyone may want to see that finally at last some Ethiopian interest is being pursued by Meles - that assumption can not be made. We figured that the Islamists would represent little of a military challenge for the Ethiopian Army and that Somalis weren't fond of them either. A few months ago no one had heard of them, then they were suddenly unbeatable and set to take over the world - now they are on the run in forests and deserts making for the Kenyan border or the Indian Ocean. As easily as the appeared they disappeared ... and may appear again. After all who has ever been able to predict what happens in Somali politics? Somalia as a country was invented just in time for independence and nurtured on Ethiopia-hatred from birth. Ethiopia-hatred is the one certainty of Somali politics. In fact, given the clan nature of Somali society there is no other unifying force there - beyond Islamism whose roots in Somalia seem to be shallow. Countless Ethiopian governments going back generations have had to deal with the coastal areas of the Horn of Africa because it has always been a source of trouble. But - until now no one has ever invaded and occupied Somalia. It is easy to get carried away with a sense of nationalism and patriotism about war. It is seductive to at last imagine a glimmer of decency from the Ethiopian regime regarding the national interest. But - remember what the Ethiopian regime is all about. How high did Ethiopia's interests rate when the current government from birth was dedicated to the dismemberment and hatred of Ethiopia? In the concluding days of the war with the Dergue, the TPLF and the Dergue used Ethiopian themes with equal cynicism. During the 1998-2000 TPLF war of independence from the EPLF the same Ethiopian themes were returned too until the first victory at least. None of them lasted when Meles & Co. were not in crisis. Meles, that eternal arada & ashattiregna (street smart intriguer) is in charge because of his mastery of manipulating and murdering his 'comrades' and fooling ferenjis while ruthlessly killing his opponents. Who armed and enriched Eritrea against every Ethiopian interest before 1998 anyway? Why Meles of course. Who was feted and fed in Mogadishu for his Ethiopia-hatred in the 1980s? Why Meles of course. Who seeks to divide and rule Ethiopia today ... or who keeps Ethiopia as a massive prison ... and who keeps her economy as a personal bank account? In every case above, Meles of course. And suddenly he should be trusted with assumptions of good will about the national interest that he has shown no concern for since 1974? How about these questions - who eagerly embraced Ethiopia's status as a landlocked country in 1991 talks to the surprise of all observers and which leaderly of an invaded country after a bitter victory willingly submitted his land to arbitration by foreigners as though anyone in history has ever done that before? Why Meles of course. Beyond a general Marxist-Leninist view of the world finely tuned to getting and keeping absolute power, Meles believes in nothing but his own interests. As the only country on earth with constitutionally mandated tribal divide and rule politics and a false but deadly right to seccession, Ethiopia is by Melesian design being pushed eagerly into the kind of clan mentality that has destroyed Somalia. Make no mistake there is no Somali government today either that does not serve at the pleasure of Meles and the world knows it. A few weeks ago it almost collapsed even from its position in internal exile guaranteed only by Ethiopian threats. Today that 'government' is in Mogadishu behind Ethiopian threats backed up by Ethiopian guns. There is no other interpretation of the current situation but that Ethiopia has, for the first time in history, invaded and occupied a neighbor and that she has done so to only the provacation of threats. There is almost no way to see where this will lead in the future but don't expect it to be good. Meles didn't even wait for his secret police agents to stage a terrorist incident before invading. Ethiopia certainly can't afford this occupation itself and unable to fight an American style anti-insurgent campaign will resort to naked and frequent brutality. Somalis may need little new reason to hate Ethiopia but Meles will do his best to give them yet more reasons and to perhaps unite them for the first time in their history. The greatest terrorist threat in Ethiopia has been Meles Inc which owns the entire economy, controls all of the livelihoods of her people and strives to occupy the very minds of 70 million Ethiopians. A threat of any type from Somalia has always been assumed in the past as a standard bit of Ethiopian reality - noting that fact is as remarkable as noting snow in Iceland. Is Al Quaeda a new factor in Somalia? Well, it certainly may be now - but maybe not. Seriously, are we to believe that Somalis or their friends who hate Ethiopia never REALLY tried to hurt Ethiopia before? Historically invading Mahdis and nationalists from Somalia have been just as threatening and always effectively dealt with without a step into the unknown such as invasion and occupation. From the American point of view this is win-win. Meles is our SOB for now, kicking *** & taking names while the rest of the War on Terror proves to be more frustrating than predicted. For Republicans and Democrats that remains true. The administration wants a clear win somewhere, anywhere and the new Congressional leadership doesn't want to rock the boat lest they do something that actually has ultimate electoral responsibility associated with it. In a very real sense this was THE BIG GAME that the US has been coaching Meles for since the early 1990s. Meles is as much a creature of Clinton-Blair-Bush as Mengistu was a creature of Brezhnev. Ultimately Meles fooled none of his sponsors in the end about his free market or democratic credentials but they always banked on his willingness to do what he just did in Somalia. That is what this invasion and occupation are all about. Somali politics has became the ultimate excuse for ignoring human rights in Ethiopia - for who knows how long it will remain so? Young American men and women are risking and tragically too often losing their lives in Iraq today because the world tolerated a brutal dictator in Saddam Hussein for decades. All the world players big and small figured they could deal with him until it was too late. Meles is no different except that his threat, while just as lethal, is more local in scale because of Ethiopia's lack of oil money. Indeed, the poorer, weaker and more involved in national and international strife Ethiopia is - the better for Meles because he is like a parasite in search of a weak host. Because of his relative weakness Meles also knows how to make ferenjis happy by telling them what they want to hear and being for them the very African that they always dreamed of meeting - 'finally an African we can deal with' - or really 'Our Man in Africa'. Easy victories will turn into a dangerous & gleeful soft contempt for Somalis in the minds of far too many vicariously thrilled armchair victors. To state as we have above that Somalis are divided is a matter of reality. To assume that Somalis will always be weak and divided or that Ethiopian arms will always be victorious or that the Meles or any government will rule Mogadishu or even that the U.S. will support Ethiopian is however, dangerous nonsense. This was no 'police action' or 'hot pursuit' or 'cross border raiding' - this is all about invasion and occupation. The reason that no one else invaded and occupied Somalia in Ethiopian history was not that it was thought hard to do so but was that eternal question - "what happens next". 'Next' can be played out over days, weeks, months and years (even decades) while the financial burden, the cost in blood, the deaths, the lost limbs and the hatred multiplies. Folks are very hesitant to start wars because it is impossible to tell how they will end. That is especially true when wars are initiated by governments that have to begged and threatened to treat their own people with decency. What can possibly hurt Meles whatever happens? Nothing really. The Meles endgame in Somalia as in Ethiopia, is eternal rule, riches and that dubious position of international respect that thugs get for killing their way to the top of their personal heap of bodies. However, Ethiopia is now in a war now with no endgame in sight or even planned for besides more political support and cash in the pipeline for its dictatorship. Remember, don't believe the hype and remember that there is no Somali government which Meles does not absolutely control. In fact, Meles Inc. owns Somalia for now just as it has temporary custody of Ethiopia. www.ethiopundit.blogspot.com Very intreasting blog on ethiopian politics, although one gets the offensive odour of intellectual harlotry from many of the posts, it is an intreasting read.

wish you the best in any direction you might take, only I have the feeling you will be back.

This fellow must be banned a stink revolves around him.

pathetic

Paragon said: That kills your entire argument. Qabiilism doing away within qabiilism? My dear friend, Liqaye, that is a flawed reasoning. Alternatives are separate to what is seen as the problem. If Somalia's problem was qabiilism-based, how do you treat her illness with the same virus that had infected her to begin with? You need a remedy, which the tfg is not. Speaking of corruption and what not, in regards to the tfg is quite ironic! How the hell does one find the personal qualities that eredicate corruption in the very persons who've sold the country's interest for their own personal gains! What sort of logic are you employing, Liqaaye? If you thought only corruption was rampant, add treason or high crime of the tfg to the list. Brother, we need other alternatives than the TFG, I tell you. I believe there is an alternative and I will make it know soon as possible. But please don't tell us the tfg would deal with the country's problems; it'll only inflame them even more. Right now, or an hour or so ago, there have been a shoot-out between Qanyare's bodyguards and C/Y clan militia over where to park a techniko vehecle, which results almost 9 deaths and many other wounded. So, tell me how these two individuals can become an alternative for Somalia? We agree brother that The T.F.G will not help somalia in any way, that is not the meaning of my post. Again I repeat for all those that are merely skimming my posts, the people are the final judges, but the people today and tommorow and for a long while are also diseased, warlords forced themselves on somalis as armed qabilists, if there were free and fair election today there would be eloquent qabilists at the head. The diffrence is that the ram chooses his excutioner. But I will refrain from futher comments until I see what you have as that alternative indeed I wait with bated breath.

that warlord was Qanyare his troops forgot apperntly were they were. Rumors go in the vein that Qanyare got $15m for this, as you can see the rewards go to all the right men in the new era brought in by the T.F.G.

Brother castro most respectfully I have had enough, before coming to xamar as many people would attest I would have torn you a new well a new thing lower than the colon if my high school biology serves me right, would have loved nothing but to spar with you on every question and every other issue of that particular day, right now I just want to make it clear to you that those who ask for a clear exposition of the alternatives have a right not to be ridiculed only but however patronisingly told the wherefores. Maybe the pink elephant is the fact that a goverment of warlords has been put in place by ethiopians. That that is a low down dirty shame is evident. That I will use all the little at my disposal to the end of unseating this goverment PEACEFULLY even if I see that happen 10 or 20 years from now. It will be unfortunate that you might choose not to answer my posts for your posts are emminently readable, but that shall confirm somethings to me and to those who read this thread. Finally I feel odd that my posts are compared to oodweynes I felt that his posts are intreasting but are written in an unimitiable style indeed in one I would not wish to imitate. Me being compared to oodweine Who would have thunk the day will come.

Brother paragon war by other means, any war that does not include the stray bullet, the bullet that drills a hole into the head of the guy you just beat in a game of dominoes 4 minutes before while you were in the loo is the war I PREFER.

The women are not loose dear brother they are poor, that sort of sickening poverty that precludes morals, and they are defensless the type of defenceless that only 16 year old orphans know. It is a real risk, but one admittedly harped upon as if it was fear number one.

Brother ngonge my first post will be a response for both you and Castro as I was writing it up you posted yours. But consider what I say following is a clearer exposition to you. Ngonge said: "I could only guess that your position (unlike that of Duke’s and Horn’s) is to support the lesser evil. However, today, in Somali politics, there really isn’t a lesser evil. Just because a Somali president finally managed to establish himself in the capital and stumbled upon some foreign strength to allow him to maintain his position does NOT mean that all the old problems have vanished. Could the TFG erase these problems? Could it solve them? Only a foolish or an eternal optimist of a man could reply YES to this question. In which case, most observers would not regard him as such but will (with some justification) assume that he’s only toeing the clannish line (see Horn’s tantalising support of his uncle or Duke’s inflexible belief in Yeey!)." Firstly if you read my posts sequentially you would understand that I do not support it, I view it as the sacrifical lamb brother that shall eventually be executed to expiate the sins of the people, but all I ask is that people wait until it is truly a worthy sacrifice. The T.F.G will do nothing it will haphazardl;y collect taxes, it ministers shall enjoy foreign junkets and its M.P's shall ululate to whoever shall be the political flavour of the moment, brother Ngonge that I see this clearly it is a fact, and as much as my word means anything, that it disgusts me is also a fact! But my view is from another angle, there are many differing schools of political thought mine is simple the people do it not the goverment, in somaliland and puntland do you think brother these entites would have survived if it were not for the ardent wish of the people would prevail, the wish to bring about change how ever neccesary peacefully? Would a 25 million budget have been enough to maintain a semblance of staehood and governance how ever comical or illusionary in waaqoyi and Bari? No brother I KNOW that the T.F.G will do DE NADA for somalia, but it will do the one thing that is needed to do anything in somalia, be it change the qabilism and corruption rampant or to the honest boors change this current crop of bastar*ds with another from your own divine/multitufinous/royalty/powerfull clan, a goverment would have a monopoly on violence. How ever corrupt the police is atleast the man charging you extra wears a uniform, atleast he has a superior that you can eiother beg/cajole/bribe to change his ways. The city council will be corrupt but when you finally get them to dig a pipe a to your house you will not have to pay 30 people to do it because the road in question belongs to rer qansax and bisecting it with out the inevitable cash would be a mortal outrage to the very armed and very high representatives of rer qansax. If it is a question of a lesser evil..well it is still an evil that can be stomached by the overwhelming majiority of somalis actually faced with the dilemma. That I PRAY FOR THIS GOVERMENT to undestand this simple truism namely that they can do what ever they want as long as I can drive to bossaso from kismayoo with the occasional bribe to a uniformed policeman who will at most impound my car, rather than 20 diffrent sets of moryaans who would use me as target practise is a prayer shared by most somalis. This to you might Deem a weak kneed argument, but this is the sort of goverment practised all over africa, and I pray that how ever long it takes to remove not Abdillahi yusuf alone but those who think like him [ which is the entire cast of characters at the moment] it should be done via mass protests rather than mass killings, which is which ever way you cut it what will happen in somalia as an alternative to the T.F.G.

How things do change, is that you Rahima? How I remember when some of us used to jump to your defence whenever some on these forums attempted to drag your well argued well thought out posts into the qabilistic nonsenical cesspit still thriving on S.O.L and now you chose to jump in with both feet, being more generously incoherent than what the likes of Mobb deep used to write, but atleast mobb deep was funny and in the end immensly likeable and you could always agree to disagree whereas your statements are merely self righteous. Brother Castro we agree more than we disagree, we agree that this goverment is no goverment anybody with even a modicum of conscience recongnized this as soon as the way M.P's would be choosen was first aired and published that this is the fruits from the tree planted in mbagathi does not suprise me. Lakin, the question that is still on the table is the same recognizing what this goverment is what is the alternative, please please will any one oblidge? this is not a rhetorical question I have avidly read CG's thoughts, xiinfaniin as well and caught glimpses of possibilities from other peoples posts, unforntunately they have been found wanting, either they involve bloodshed, or they are utopian but I see the good intentions behind the ideas expressed unfortunately good intentions is not the be all and end all. Living in kenya for a while, I saw with my own eyes how things change, from a rigid one party state to one that is opening up and till the political space is so large that the goverment sponsored constitution was roundly defeated in a referendum did not lead to mass arrests or the poisoning of wells of communities that did not support the goverment, it was a long process but in the end what enabled it to happen was the fact that Kenyans refused to turn to the bullet being neighbours of 4 african countries that were time or another at war they came to the conclusion that time was on the side of the general population. A goverment that does not have the support of the people will not last, the T.F.G is feeling smug but their end will come today or eventually when it expires under the weight of its own excrement, but that process should be as bloodless as possible is what concerns me. That the goverment should be toppled under the full weight of civic action, union strikes, mass rallies, political losses all of these things is what can do it eventually yes but for a moment think outside the box and realise that the alternative is not a movement but another cabal of warlords. For all of the above to happen we need structures and mechanisms, however corrupt,skewered or nominal, even the outlines of judiciaries and ministries is what is needed to topple this goverment from its position other wise in place of these constraints the people will turn to what they know best namely qabil to protect and futher their intreasts. Brothers you have to realise that this road will be tortous and ardous, but as people get educated [ in deen as well for the religious in the manner of what the muslim brotherhood is doing in Eygpt] and engaging in activities that make politics not so much life and death but one that scaremongering politicos can not keep the ultimately pragamtic and sensible somalis from making the right desicion. An example of this is in somaliland, for a moment let us view them as not a seccesionist entity but a group of somalis attempting to govern themselves although at the moment Mr.Riyaale has delved in to his past to pull out all the old siadist tricks to keep himself in power the people of somaliland have a parliament with an oppsition however fractitious and an election system that gives them the best chance to vote him out, indeed if he were to win again only with 80 votes afforded to him by that famous ballot box in berbera, the voices urging violence to unseat would few and far between, why can that same thought process be one shared by all somalis, that Riyaale will go in this election or the next is not in question simmilarly that the people of waqooyi do not want to shed blood pass throygh isbaroos or pockmark the walls of hargeisa hotel is also not in question. In the end most of us have the same goals, but I urge the posters in S.O.L the preeminent somali forum where even the likes of the guardian visit to collate the views of somalis to for once not follow opinion but set it. Finally I will tell you what sort of goverment we will have in 10 years, not in the sophisticated theoretical manner of a baashi, oodweyne or sophist but clearly in how it will appear to the somali people. The president will of the wrong clan The prime minister will be of the wrong clan The parliament will have a crasser beviary of polticians and law makers for higher to the highest bidder, and a significant part of the populace will be pissed, but there are shall be ways and means of changing this rather than waiting to get shot by a moryaan who turns out to be your neighbours brother.