Xiinow brother you always supported peace only your methods were different and I always refrain from accusing people of dreaming since that is what SOL politics section is. Let us agree on somethings we both support peace anyone that has read my posts will see that inspite of my seeing the flaws often up close and very personal of both the UIC and TFG I was wiling to actively support both entity in the name of peace however flawed, as long as it lead to a cessation of violence within somalia. And indeed I support any solutin that might to peace with in somalia, even if it is the negotiate with anyone anytime anywhere variety. From the very begging I dismissed the armed somali restiance as a coalition of malcontents having been on the ground and inspite attempts to lionise them by some initially on these forums and in the west, I was fully aware and still glaringly aware of the shortcoming of those that lob motar bombs in somalia, indeed I predicted this very same situation we are in after the fall of the UIC. As a supporter of the UIC i recognized the spontaneous nature of the uprising in somalia that swept the TFG into Baidoa, but all the same I recognised and still recognise the failures of the UIC in not realising that although the TFG was the major irritant it was a paper mache creation proped up by the Ethiopians, by failing to secure the premiership in Khartoum and the right to maintain its own rapidly arming and expanding forces the UIC failed its constituents, prefering dogma over subtle long term strategizing, diplomacy and the explicit wish of its constituency. I have met Sheikh sharif three times and have all the times been struck by his genuine somalinimo and urge to reconcile somalis under the banner of the blue flag, but in the same vein I have to say and this is a subjective view, I have been struck by the almost bovine naivete that the sheikh emanates, it almost like being in the presence of an animal that feeds on grass rather than even the slowest moving animals on gods green earth. Sheikh sharif is truly nothing more than a patriotic geography teacher, and is encumbered by the lack of any intimation what consequences of actions might be. Not only in Djibouti has this trait been displayed but before that, during the struggles on setting the tone for the UIC in its inital stages of formation, and from his escape to kenya and all expenses paid trip to yemen by the americans, as well as the nature of his position in djibouti's talks, the sheikh can not simply look a couple of steps ahead. In Djibouti even before the beginning of the talks that even a normal non politically versed individual could have seen would be met by more than a "few" obstacles, the sheikh failed to even attempt to build any sort of coalition, be it even one of convenience among his peers in the ARS, somali's are wily and the ARS politicians are no exception any sort of offer would have been accepted because their were and still are genuine fears of aweys representing the ARS in any position or capability, but as entreties were sent for postponements to be made to delay the signing ceremony as allies in the central commitee schemed to get the deal officially endorsed by the ARS before the signing, the dear sheikh widened his bovine eyes and sent back a missive on how somalia cannot wait a day longer. Well as is obvious now somalis could have avoided another false dawn if only the geography teacher would not have assumed the goodness of his fellows who now sit dejected as Aweys becomes ever more rabid in old age. On the other side we have Cadde nuur who havng listned to him giving a lecture in nairobi kenya, I beleive to trully want to end the carnage in somalia, but watching him literally use his hands to pull back fine sickly strands of hair across his head, I felt like I was listening to an NGO presentation, but on futher reflection I thought that maybe that was it, as so many of us wondered why this man who was unblemished by the civil war and indeeed was the head of the red crescent in somalia would do with the TFG? But after the lecture I understood, he feels like he was appointed not as a politico but as an official position to bring peace to Somalia, and merely that, it shows you the extent of his political acumen that he believed he could do that from with in the TFG! The reason why negotiation as you and bashi refer to it would not work has nothing to do with the admirable attempts for peace by these admirable men or the support or lack there of the Somali people, but merely and most glaringly obvious the lack of an entity to negotiate with. The TFG does not exist walaal xiin not here on cyber space and not on the ground in somalia, and where it does exist a negotiated peace is the antithesis to its existence, and negotiated peace would covertly or overtly be subverted by the clannish imperative that the T.F.G is based on. Finally even those who believe that the TFG is the epitome of evil as I do, where to negotiate with the TFG where would INTEGRITY be? I agree negotiate anytime anywhere with anyone, but with whom?

pick up the challenge

Xiinow your thread title leaves me too little room to wiggle but wiggle I must, so I started this other one saxiib. Undoubtedly peace is what the vast majority of Somalis want, even qabilists in their own wrapped and misguided perception of reality, believe peace and glory can be had in Somalia if only all the other Somalis would bow and accept the aegis of their particular tolka[/i.] When Somalis supported the creation of statelets such as Somaliland, one of the enduring reasons for this support is the peace and order this entity has afforded the people of north western Somalia, again peace at any cost is what props up punt land, it is what lead so many Somalis in supporting the Transistional national government of Arta as well as the deeply flawed creation at Mbagathi. I myself hoped against hope to see this eminently flawed process at mbagathi lead somewhere. A desire for peace in some areas reinforced clan dynamics through the creation of the R.R.A and the J.V.A. A desire for peace is what lead the mothers of Mogadishu to brave heavy fighting and marauding moryaan, in delivering supplies to what where initially ill prepared and under armed ICU fighters in the initial stages of the peoples insurrection against the tin pot despots of Benadiir. A desire for peace is what lead to people participating in the other peace talks held in the military barracks of Mogadishu as well as the peace talks in Djibouti. A desire for peace is what despite and in spite of the concerted historical efforts of Somali warlords, has led to whole swathes of regions in Somalia being peaceful, thru the acquiescence of the local population to any sort of authority. The Somali people indeed want and desire peace, the sort of pseudo social anthropology that some on the forum are engaging in not withstanding. You are right a failure of leadership has been what has retarded the Somali peace caravan, just over the last two years countless opportunities have been skittered away by those that claim to support the aspirations of the Somali people be they within the T.F.G or the I.C.U, but even if we were to have a super duper leader, with the conscience of the sheikh, the tenacity of Yusuf and the negotiating skills of a Qanyare, this leader or indeed group of leader would be hard pressed to bring about any sort of peace in Somalia. Beyond the characters and events of Somali politics the one strategic overview that I always attempt to apply to the Somali situation is the two currents of Somali politics elucidated by Samatar. Somali politics over the past 50 years has always been faced by the opposing tugs of the clannish imperative and the nationalist imperative. The clannish imperative aims to create a modus operandi in Somalia based on clan calculation, from the appoint of ministers and members of parliament and obscure civil servants to the sharing of the national cake at what ever level of economic activity you care to name. Over the past few years this imperative is in its ascendancy, illustrated by the nature of the last years of the Barre regime, the civil war and the nature of every peace initiative to end the civil war. I will not debate the fine points any further. The nationalist imperative with in the Somali governance idea, is based on the value of meritocracy, in the period of 1960-1969 the first president of Somalia attempted utmost to incorporate all Somalis with in government and economic activity in 1965 the Somali prime minister Abdi razaq Mohamed in his bosto rosso [red envelope] campaign against corruption sacked close to 200 senior civil servants regardless of clan affiliation and appointed their replacements based on purely meritocratic basis. But let us put that aside for a moment and let us assume that in our search for the holy grail of Somali peace we are willing to overturn every principle we have, be it religious, nationalist or indeed in the case of baadiye modernist to reach the goal of a peaceful Somalia. There are several ways that peace can be reached, all of which I have to say I presage with the inevitable statement that clarifies my position of peace being impossible: Peace through the T.F.G Even if every Somali was to accept the legitimacy of the T.F.G falling to our knees and informing them to do with us what they wish, this group of people would still not be able to set up even a modicum of a state within Somalia. How ever we might hope this particular cabal, is inept even in its perfidy, among themselves they cannot even agree how to divide up the spoils they consider a defeated Somalia to be! This is not my conjecture but I feel that any sincere individual would agree that past history attests to this fact. But let us assume as so many of us have that the T.F.G could deliver that peace through surrender that so many Somalis would give them, let us imagine that the A.R.S would today fly enmasse to Baidoa and raise the white flag at the grain silo, let us assume that the T.F.G supporters are well and truly satisfied with the end of the local difficulties [which according to brothers like duke, the death and humiliation of so many Somalis ultimately is] what then? Expect that when the clan imperative can no longer be reduced to infinitum a new bout of violence pitting another president with another prime minister or minister, or governor or milk man will occur. The nature of the zero sum political game that the insipid characters in Baidoa follow as well as the inherent weaknesses that the clan balancing act entails furthermore based on the selfish and venal needs of the brokers of “peace” in Baidoa [who are former warlords, genocidaires, adventurers, collaborators] entails would assure us of that war would be postponed for only a very short time. If peace at any costs that is for the moment is the goal then by all means, the collective bowing to the pillagers in Baidoa will be sufficient, I personally will bow as low as is necessary because as you can see I do desire peace. Peace through Negotiation Negotiation is indeed better than any forum of armed conflict, but unfortunately negotiations requires that more than one person be represented at the table! If it is not to be a craven capitulation that I personally support, [which would not even need the decorum of negotiation when what we wish for is peace] then I must ask with whom this negotiation would be between. I personally will support any negotiation effort but even my mind boggles at the idea of a negotiation with any one at any time over anything! One does not negotiate with the security guard at a bank for a multi million dollar loan, so who am I to negotiate with. It does not matter if it is under a tree, at a conference in Djibouti, or on the back of a deck of playing cards in a dimly lit cinema waiting for the love guru to come up on the screen. Cadde Nuur as a politician sincerely wishes to bring a lasting peace in Somalia, but the nature of the institution he leads regardless of who ever might have been the president at the time precludes the genuine reconciliation he is looking for. Beyond the clannish imperative the T.F.G is based on, every negotiation has to have some sort of give and take between different affected interest groups; I must ask what interest group the T.F.G represents? Is it the union of former warlords welfare association or the pillagers and careerists contact group, if so then where do these people live? Which district, which province, what do they eat, and how has the current mayhem in Somalia adversely affected them. Surely they want a peace were the people are consulted in decisions that affect them and there is some sort of budgeting on monies occurring however mundane. Perhaps it is Ethiopia that we need to appease or do some still hope for a meeting of minds under the shade of Ethiopia might and diplomacy in Somalia, Surely Ethiopia over the past 13 years has been interested in a peaceful Somalia, perhaps they should be petitioned, I would do so region 5 would be given over to Ethiopia as well as the golgodoob district and indeed any other they wish to name, would this appease these interest groups. If you say that this or even more will be sufficient then by all means brothers negotiation is possible and indeed I ask why it has not occurred already as the conditions are so ripe on the ground and have been so for a very long time. Let us come back to the name of this thread water water every where and not a drop to drink. Calls for peace every where and no one to make peace with.

Chicken and egg hypothesizing, dont let this debate die.... it is very intreasting.

Chicken and egg hypothesizing, dont let this debate die.... it is very intreasting.

I shall respond in due time, as for your inability dear ngonge to respond in a positive or meaningfull manner no apology is needed for one who is aware of that particular shortcoming of yours.

iys coming home its coming home footballs coming home.

My single purpose for joining this site is to brawl in the much publicised political section. I hope to cause splendid fireworks as my infamous name intended to do just over 400 years ago Hehehe talk about getting into character, you are welcome Guy_Fawkes, over here you shall finding all of the 'brawling' you desire, and brawling is the correct word for what happens here on so many ways. Would you clarify why you are so impressed with indho caddes contribution to the liberation struggle in somalia? Please clarify Waiting with bated breath

yawn

Time is on my side...

P.S If you still beleive that tings are impossible I refer you to this extract: "While it was arming the fighters on the ground, Eritrea was also busy playing host to a number of Somali dissidents, including deposed TFG parliamentary speaker Shaykh Sharif Hasan Adan; former government minister Husayn Mohamed Farah, a.k.a., "Aydiid Jr.," a renegade former U.S. Marine who is the son of the General Mohamed Farah Aydiid of Black Hawk Down infamy; Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, the fugitive chairman of the ICU; and Shaykh Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, a.k.a. "Indha'Adde," the defense chief during the ICU rule. Voice of America (VOA) correspondent Alisha Ryu has reported that Eritrean President Isaias convened a "unity meeting" in early June to form a coalition against the TFG and Ethiopia that would include not only the ICU and former members of the TFG, but also two Ethiopian rebel groups, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the ethnic-Somali ****** National Liberation Front (ONLF). Other sources report that the ICU's Shaykh Sharif will be the chairman of the yet-to-be-named front, while the ONLF's leader, Mohamed Omar Osman, will be its military commander. Diplomatic, military, and intelligence officials confirm that, in addition to the four factions just mentioned, as part of his mad strategy of playing regional spoiler Eritrea's Isaias supports nearly a dozen other armed groups, mostly ethnic-based, with the aim of destabilizing his neighbors. Those targeted at undermining the Ethiopian government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi included: * the Afar National Democratic Front (ANDF), which in March abducted five British citizens traveling in the northern Afar region (the Britons were subsequently released); * the Ethiopian People's Patriotic Front (EPPF), an Amhara group which fought a pitched battle near Gondor with government forces after infiltrating from Sudan (23 rebels were killed, 18 were captured, and 112 surrendered voluntarily); * the Gambella People's Liberation Force (GPLF), an group representing the Anuak minority of Ethiopia and Sudan that has been accused of attacking that has in the past attacked government and economic development workers as well as the occasional UN vehicle (to be fair, the lowland Anuak have admittedly been long marginalized by the highland Amhara and Tigrayan rulers of Ethiopia); * the Southern Ethiopia Peoples' Front for Justice and Equality (SEFJE), which joined with the Tigray People's Democratic Front (below) to launch a March attack against the Ethiopian Army's 31st Division at Adi Geshu in the Karsa Humera district of western Tigray; * and the Tigray People's Democratic Movement (TPDM), which claims to have killed 127 government soldiers in a May battle in the Tigrayan heartland in northwestern Ethiopia (a video clip, purportedly of the fight, was even posted on YouTube). The strategy comes together.

Author: J. Peter Pham, Ph.D. Source: The Family Security Foundation, Inc. Date: November 8, 2007 Members of Somalia’s interim government are fighting amongst themselves, ultimately giving an edge to Islamists who wish to fill the ensuing power vacuum. FSM Contributing Editor J. Peter Pham, Ph.D. warns that unless the U.S. and her allies take a firmer stance on the situation, it will continue to deteriorate – to everyone’s disadvantage. Somali “Leaders” Squabble as Islamists Gain Momentum By J. Peter Pham, Ph.D. Last week, the “prime minister” of the internationally-recognized (but otherwise utterly ineffective) interim government of Somalia resigned. In itself a not an altogether negative development, the departure of Ali Mohamed Gedi should bring that much closer the end of the tragic farce that has been, by most counts, the fourteenth attempt at a national government for the war-torn territory since the collapse of the brutal dictatorship of Muhammad Siyad Barre in early 1991. For now, however, the regime’s “president,” Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, clings tenaciously to his illusory “power”: immediately after forcing Gedi’s ouster, he appointed a non-entity by the name of Salim Aliyo Ibro as “acting prime minister.” And, and for reasons best known to the denizens of Foggy Bottom, the United States Department of State seems willing to indulge these fantasies, sending out department spokesman Sean McCormack to make an anodyne declaration: We understand that the decision of Ali Mohamed Gedi to resign as Prime Minister of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was made in the spirit of continued dialogue and national reconciliation among all Somali stakeholders. We call on the Transitional Federal Government to use this opportunity to engage with key Somali stakeholders, particularly those in Mogadishu, in a consultative process leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister. We urge all Somali stakeholders to renew their efforts towards political dialogue and to remain focused on resuming the process outlined by the Transitional Federal Charter. Successful dialogue and reconciliation is critical to ensuring free and fair elections in 2009 and establishing lasting peace and stability in Somalia. The problem with Assistant Secretary McCormack’s statement is that it bears no relation to reality. First, the TFG has never been a government. It is, at best, an unrepresentative group of warlords with meager prospects until they rebranded themselves as a “government.” As I noted in my testimony last month before the House Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health: Since its creation at an internationally-funded kaffeeklatsch outside Somalia, the TFG has proven itself to be, at best, a notional entity whose day-to-day physical survival is – aside from generous U.S. and other international aid flows – due entirely to the continuing presence of the Ethiopian intervention force which rescued it last December from certain collapse in the face of an assault by the forces of the ICU, which at the time controlled Mogadishu as well as most of Somalia and were threatening to overrun the provincial outback of Baidoa, the only town which the interim “government” even had the pretense of running. And, if it were not bad enough that the TFG is dominated by fellow members of “President” Abdullahi Yusuf’s ********** sub-clan of the ***** clan from northeastern Puntland – a make-up that renders the would-be regime utterly unpalatable to the powerful ****** clan which predominates in Mogadishu – its ham-fisted style – documented in the August 13, 2007, report by Human Rights Watch covering the first four months of the year, as well as independent reporting by a number of journalists and non-governmental organization representatives, including some who have paid with their liberty or even their lives – has driven potential constituents en masse into the arms of its opponents, who are increasingly embracing a broad spectrum ranging from Islamists with foreign ties to alienated members of marginalized clans. And, as the opposition to it coalesces, rather than examining the reasons for the dissatisfaction – including its failure reach out to leaders of other clans and moderate Islamists as well as its corruption and lack of transparency – the TFG has lashed out against independent voices that should be pillars of any attempt at nation-building, including the members of the press, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and other exponents of civil society. Instead, labeling these groups as “****** terrorists,” it has sidelined them where it has not shut them down and arrested or killed their leadership. Second, Ali Mohamed Gedi, who, as I previously disclosed in this column, is a ne’er do well who owed his exalted position in life to the fact that his father was once employed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi as a glorified valet, most certainly did not leave the political scene out of any high-minded “spirit of continued dialogue and national reconciliation among all Somali stakeholders.” The “prime minister” had been at odds with the “president” for months over the spoils to be had by exploiting the only advantage the TFG really had, its status as an internationally-recognized entity, and the resources which could be had by trading on that commodity. Much to the chagrin of Abdullahi Yusuf and his friends, Gedi tried to consolidate his power by dismissing cabinet ministers not loyal to him personally and seeking control over the aid funds from various international sources, including the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union, as well as various Arab countries. Although the TFG is far from transparent, he apparently had some success. The cabinet – which, it should be recalled, actually does not have any real governing to do given the situation on the ground – was whittled down from over 90 ministers to just over 30. And Gedi seems to have acquired some control over finances: he has gone, in little over two years, from being in literal flight from debt collectors to being the owner of an immense villa in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. Tensions between the “president” and the “prime minister” came out in the open, however, over an oil deal which, as I reported here in August, the former had signed without the latter. When Gedi tried to bring that deal as well as others in the offing with a number of Chinese state-owned oil companies as well as several smaller independent Western enterprises under the TFG’s umbrella – so to have better access to the potential revenue flows – Abdullahi Yusuf began a series of machinations aimed at bringing about a no-confidence vote against the “prime minister” before the interim authority’s rump parliament. Matters finally came to a head in late September when the TFG’s own chief justice, Yusuf Ali Harun, was taken from his home in Baidoa (the provincial town where most of the “government” camps out given the insecurity in the putative capital of Mogadishu) by security officials and dragged along with another judge to a Mogadishu prison on orders of “Justice Minister and Attorney-General” Abdullahi Dahir Barre after the pair had the temerity to criticize the regime’s misappropriation of United Nations Development Programme funds for legal reform. Gedi then tried to sack the justice minister and his deputy who, in turn, refused to accept their dismissals saying that they were answerable only to “President” Abdullahi Yusuf. Third, there are no “efforts towards political dialogue” going on, much less any real prospects of elections, fair or otherwise, in 2009. If anything, as I last reported in late September, the situation continues to degenerate. At that time, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees had reported that some 400,000 people, almost quarter of Mogadishu’s population, has fled the city in the preceding four months. In the last three days of October alone, another 100,000 fled for their lives as the various insurgent forces battling the TFG took advantage of the political infighting to score additional gains and to rally members of Gedi’s sub-clan in Mogadishu to join their ****** clansmen against the regime and its Ethiopian backers. Why should anyone care? In a column nearly eight months ago, I predicted that the anti-TFG resistance was “repeating almost step-by-step the tactical and strategic evolution of the Iraqi insurgency” – complete with suicide bombings, a tactic unknown in Somalia until last year. Spearheading the attacks is al-Shabaab (“the Youth”), an extremist group which emerged within the military forces of the erstwhile Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and which was originally led by Adan Hashi ‘Ayro, an al Qaeda-trained kinsman and protégé of ICU shura council head Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys, whom I profiled last year. While there are reports of a split among the Islamists – rumors tell of a rift between ‘Ayro and former ICU defense chief Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, a.k.a. “Indha’adde,” over who should command in Mogadishu – that has not stopped them from being remarkably effective in recent weeks. In separate attacks on October 5th, the Islamist militants killed a deputy attorney-general, Abdulkadir Sheikh Mohamed, a.k.a. “Ayatollah,” and a military intelligence official, General Ahmed Jila’ow Addow. Ayatollah met his end when a grenade was tossed into his car as it drove through Bakara market in Mogadishu, while Addow was gunned down in an ambush. Subsequently, a posting on an al Qaeda-linked Arabic website exulted in the hits: Your brothers in the Mujahedin Youth Movement [al-Shabaab], thanks be to God, on Friday 23 Ramadan 1428 [October 5, 2007] assassinated Abdulkadir Sheikh Mohamed and his companions…This operation comes as the apostate government announces the launching of a security operation in all districts of the capital. The Ethiopian army [will] implement the plan under the direction of some generals in the losing regime…The holy warriors are on guard and relying on God to foil their plan and God is our Lord and they have no Lord. On October 10th, al-Shabaab took credit (via an Internet posting) for another attack, this time a suicide bombing of a military installation in Baidoa: Praised be God, the most merciful, the most compassionate. Our brother Ahmed Hussein Ahmed used a vehicle to carry out an attack against the largest military base in Baidoa…[which] blew up a building, killing and wounding hundreds of soldiers, destroying six trucks, and [causing] major damage to the Hotel Bakin, where the prime minister was [staying.] On October 17th, Abdi Miney, the TFG’s district commissioner for Yaqshid, an important quarter of Mogadishu, was killed along with two bodyguards when al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) under his vehicle. The explosion was so powerful that it propelled the wreckage of the battered vehicle some 400 meters off the paved road. Miney, who has only been on the job less than a month, was the third incumbent in a row to be killed by the militants. On October 19th, unknown assailants murdered Bashir Nur Gedi, the acting chairman of Shabelle Media Network, the largest independent journalistic outlet in Somalia, outside his home in Mogadishu. He was the eighth journalist killed since the beginning of the year. On October 23rd, three Ugandan soldiers were injured in mortar attacks by insurgents. The three are part of the 1,600-strong contingent that is the only part of the promised African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force to have actually deployed, the Nigerian, Ghanaian, Burundian, and other units being “no shows.” (And, as I have repeatedly noted, even if the entire authorized force materialized, it remains beyond delusional to think that a modest contingent of 8,000 Africans can succeed where the infinitely more robust UNITAF and UNOSOM II forces, with their 37,000 and 28,000 personnel respectively, failed barely a decade ago). The following day, October 24th, another Ugandan peacekeeper was wounded in a grenade attack. On October 25th, two TFG soldiers were killed and four others seriously wounded when their vehicle was attacked by militants in Baladweyn, in central Somalia. On October 26th, more than a dozen Somali civilians were seriously wounded when a bomb was detonated inside a neighborhood movie theatre which was packed with young men watching a “Bollywood” film. During their rule of Mogadishu last year the ICU had banned such entertainments. Last weekend, as intense battles were being fought between the Ethiopian forces protecting it and insurgents in Mogadishu itself, the TFG and its hangers-on seemed impervious to the ruin around them, preoccupied as they are with, in the words of one prominent Somali businessman who contacted me, “squabbling over the spoils of war, much like robbers fighting over the loot they have stolen.” Unfortunately, both for the welfare of the Somali people and for the security interest of the United States and its allies, it is precisely this type of infighting that not only encourages radicals like those in al-Shabaab and other components of the Eritrean-sponsored “Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia” (ALS) insurgency to press their advantage, but lulls ordinary folk into accepting the claims of the radical militants that only their brand of Islamism can provide security and stability in place of the TFG’s illegitimate politics and venal corruption. Rather than continuing to humor the tired actors in this failed production, it is high time that the U.S. nudges the international community to bring the curtain down on this farce before it turns into tragedy. # # FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor J. Peter Pham is Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University in Harrisonburg, Virginia. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C., as well as Vice President of the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA).

Sheikh Ahmed says with passage of time more Somalis to join resistance against Ethiopian troops in Somalia. ASMARA - A top Somalian opposition leader on Thursday vowed to fight until the withdrawal of all Ethiopian troops, ruling out peace talks with the transitional government. "It is our belief that every individual in Somalia has to participate in the resistance and the defeat of the Ethiopian occupation," Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said in the Eritrean capital. "The more time goes by, the more Ethiopia will be resisted by the people, and they will be disliked by the international community because they are not carrying out what they said they will do," he said. "They will become more isolated and have more failure in Somalia," he said. Sheikh Sharif is chairman of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), an Islamist-dominated opposition coalition formed in September. He was a top leader of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which controlled large parts of Somalia before being ousted by temporary government forces and Ethiopian troops earlier this year. The armed branch of the ICU and their tribal allies have since waged a guerrilla-style war in Mogadishu, targeting Somali and Ethiopian troops. The violence that erupted since the temporary government forces took control of the country has crippled Somalia's ailing economy, left hundreds dead and forced tens of thousands to flee Mogadishu, fueling popular resentment against the Ethiopian presence. Sheikh Sharif ruled out talks with either Ethiopia or Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. "As long as the Ethiopian action in Somalia is to kill Somalis and make more atrocities, then there is nothing to talk about with Ethiopia," he said. "As far as the Abdullahi Yusuf clique is concerned, they have no authority they are only a puppet of the Ethiopians, and as long as that situation prevails there is no question of negotiation with them." Source: Middle East Online, November 8, 2007

By Abukar Arman Thursday, November 08, 2007 For almost two decades, the Somali political theater was inundated with random episodes of tragic comedies that frustrated the average observer and fatigued donor countries who funded numerous failed projects to solve the Somali conundrum. The drama generated by these episodes routinely blurred the vision of the average Somali activist (especially in the Diaspora), analysts around the world, and indeed stakeholders from seeing with clarity and dealing with the real issues. Recently the entertaining drama has been the sensationalized demise of a man who in ten short months left a legacy of infamy and earned his unenviable place in Somali history-- The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Prime Minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi. This sensationalized drama became a bigger story than the relentless brutality of the Ethiopian occupation, the systematic ethnic-cleansing, the targeted assassination of vocal media figures, the rampant piracy, the senseless violence and strategically self-destructive insurgent tactics, and the horrific humanitarian crises causing starvation and displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, mainly children and women. So how did a Prime Minister who perfected the marketable image of the GWT age (Global War on Terrorism) got pulled off his horse any way? After all, Gedi had all the necessary credentials to keep him in his post: the lack of vision, the Pelican throat for greed and corruption, the shallow mind and the quixotic view of world politics, the right frown, the right lingo that labeled all his oppositions with the dreaded T-word, and, of course, the Lapel pin to shield him with artificial air of patriotism. More importantly, how can an action of this magnitude --sacking the ideal figure at the most critical hour-- be credited to a cardboard president who reportedly cannot even call a private meeting in his own presidential palace without first getting clearance from representatives of the Ethiopian occupation forces. Of course, there was a rift between President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and his former Prime Minister over the usual business: who stole the most out of the donation dollars, and who was hoarding essential posts for his closest of kin and clan; but, that is hardly the force that kicked Gedi out. And any one who simply focuses on connecting the dots will conclude that this latest drama was settling an issue much bigger than “Abdullahi and Gedi’s” myopic political claptrap. While in pursuit of their respective “strategic interests,” the most battle-tested army in Africa and the sole superpower of the world have partnered almost a year ago to dismantle the Islamic Courts Union -- a defunct entity that brought six months of peace and order in Mogadishu that many now lament --.and establish the TFG in Mogadishu. Both Abullahi and Gedi were handpicked by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia who micromanaged the Somali political affairs for over a decade, they also had Washington ’s blessings. But, Gedi’s fortunes would dramatically change once he publicly criticizes the secret contract deal his president signed with China exposed by the Financial Times of London. He felt left out of the deal and aired his frustration publicly. Oblivious to how his declared position would put Meles, who had his own deal with China to protect, on the spotlight, Gedi threatened to pronounce the contract null and void. Over night he became politically radioactive, so to speak. And once Gedi sensed he was being ganged on, he pulled his clan card, and did what many thought was unthinkable: he reached out to the same clan leaders that he once labeled them with the T-word. He urged them to continue their struggle to free Somalia from the Ethiopian occupation…Something that proved to be the final straw that broke the camel’s back. With Gedi gone, so is any opportunity for the salivating American oil companies to win contracts in either Somalia or Ethiopia . And Meles is mindful that he cannot be seen as the man who conned the US out of its economic and hegemonic interest in the region, because this will be the beginning of an end for the US/Ethiopian partnership in the Horn. But, before continuing this line of argument, let us take a necessary detour for a moment. Most of us know what Red Herring is. It is smoked fish used by fugitives to lure bloodhounds off the scent track. And in the metaphorical sense, it is anything used to divert attention from the real issue. Meles is determined to compete with his neighboring Sudan , even at the expense of his relations with Washington . Because, as a result of its high profit margin China oil deals, Sudan ’s economy has been growing at an incredible rate; and as such, is fast emerging as the Horn’s undisputed economic giant. And having learnt the ABCs of influencing the American political apparatus, Meles has built a strong lobby led by former high ranking Congressman Dick Army of Texas . In early October, even as HR 2003, the Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act of 2007 (a bill that, among other things, called for accountability regarding Meles’ brutal human rights abuses in dealing with the people of ******ia, Oromia, and the Amhara) has passed the House with bipartisan support, the Ethiopian Ambassador in Washington had enough confidence to publicly rebuke those members who supported the bill. In the meantime, the Senate is considering imposing some measure of economic sanctions on the Meles’ regime for its dealings with China . This, of course, is a long departure from that cozy relationship that lead to joint operation that led to the Iraqization of Somalia. And as the end of Bush’s second term approaches, the political pressure to avoid another failed enterprise increases. From Washington ’s perspective: the Bush Doctrine cannot face history with three failed regime-change initiatives ( Afghanistan , Iraq , and Somalia ). In other words: diversionary tactics aside, Bush will either have Somalia as one success story to highlight in his exit speech or the US and Ethiopian interests will collide head-on. Abukar Arman E-mail: abukar_arman@yahoo.com

somali friend said Why do some people bring Islam into their dirty world of crooked politics? I am glad to say that our politics is as bad as somalia, but as people we do not allow or tolerate fake crusaders or fake Jihadist. The christians expose and stop fake crusaders and moslems expose and defeat fake Jihadists. It gives the people confidence in each other and peace in faith. The people of Somalia so far have also shown that Islam is not a religion where some greedy and dictatoral group uses and misuses for its own benefit. The ICU is now hiding the false Jihad call against somalis and ethiopians. your understanding of these things are miniscule, you have done nothing but expose your ignorance of somali politics....perhaps another hibernation is in order. Abdiqasin will hold a better position in the pantheon of somali history than yusuf. Simple as that.

Originally posted by Xubeer: ^^Its not about quelling things, but about involving others. So as to increase the resevoir of ill feeling among somalis. When ever I tell somalilanders will never see a kulmiye government they go into all sorts of political calculations, in the end kulmiye for the Ethiopians is a semi fifth coloumn for unity with somalia or atleast the old time religion of somali pride and midnimo, and are therefore to unpredictable to become the ruling party of somaliland. Xuubeer I would not be suprised either. :rolleyes:

Brother Baashi thank you for adding your two cents to this debate. If you please I shall address each of the facts that you have raised in a meaningful manner. 1. Tigre regime is sleeplessly watchful. Undoubtedly this is true, but no where in the strategy broadly outlined has this fact been ignored, this coalition will obviously be created and shall exist and operate under the watchful eye The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences. of the tigray regime, and within the strategy tactical attention should be given to this fact. 2. They’ve equated the uprising in the east to terrorism and got a nodding approval from Washington. They have the will, tools, and cover to commit genocide. Collective punishment, torture of the leading figures the junta knows the drill. The first part of this fact is not quite right although the tigre regime did indeed attempt to paint the ONLF as a terrorist organization, it has failed spectacularly in this regard, this is due to several reasons first and foremost being the secular nature of the ONLF's demands and manifesto. The Tigre government has failed to force the U.S to include the ONLF in list of terrorist organizations, and failed to secure a congress condemnation on the acts of the ONLF in Ethiopia. 3. Amhara are not interested in destroying Ethiopia. Quite to the contrary they want to reverse the regional autonomy (very popular among historically oppressed ethnic groups) Tigre constituted. Right there you have a substantial divergence in direction, conflict of interests and goals. I had not implied that the amhara were for the disintegration of Ethiopia, indeed the A.R.S in Asmara is not parlaying with any amhara based group, and when solicited the rebel groups I have named are the ONLF, the OLF, and the SDMO of the southern nationalities region of Ethiopia. The other element of your fact that you state namely that the amhara do not want the disintigration of ethiopia has a flip side as well, I think you can discern the reality that amhara claims to a united Ethiopia with them at the helm, would lead to a situation of strenuous opposition, in ignoring the aspirations of ethnic groups like the oromo to autonomy or succession would percipitate the destruction of their version of ethiopia, the same version that suborns the rights of the somali population at the present time. 4. Oromo’s Christian vs. Muslim division is not only ground for exploitation but a concern of ethnic war from within. Yes, I do not understand the implication of this fact, the muslim christian divide is a clear and present danger in Ethiopia, that must be exploited as a corollary of xiin's strategy, although if you read over my posts again you will see that I have been carefull to state that any political association should present a secular face so as to avoid the pat assumptions of the western world in the face of anything islamic, this policy has succesfully been followed by the ONLF setting a clear precedent to be followed. 5. Somali vs. Oromo territorial dispute over Diredoba, Jigjiga, and Harrar frontier is an easy hot button waiting to be pushed and will be pushed in the event Tigre’s survival comes to fore. No strategy occurs in isolation, this among other issues would be exploited by the desperation of the tigre government, but that would imply that the issue is on the table, the OLF is fighting for power or succession the ONLF for power or succession the SDMO for power or succession, the other alphabet soup organizations that might form it is safe to say would be fighting for power or succession. There fore the initial and primary aim of all this organisation would be the toppling of the T.P.L.F and not any cartographic issues there of those would be solved after the first instance occurs. But perhaps xiin's strategy was not clear, the issue was not the incorporation of Somalia galbeed into Somalia proper, but the fundamental destablisation of ethiopia at least initially. 6. Within Somalis, there are divisions - coalition of clans are satisfied with the killinka style autonomy all the while the ONLF wants to secede Firstly the kilinka has no autonomy. But the aim of this strategy is the collecting of like minded organizations into a front, since the ONLF is a natural partner, they shall be amember of the front, those that have neither the inclination, temerity or imagination to join the front would be outside it? admittedly the urge to clan division must be completely stymied, the fact is as has been epitomised by the history of all guerrilla movements no guerrilla movement starts as a broad based movement, but rather starts as a vanguard of committed indivduals ending up as a broad based movement. Today it has three regimes to count on: SL, PL, and TFG. Absent of relatively strong and politically stable and independent Somali state destroying Ethiopia is a wishful thinking. I have already outlined what I believe the contribution of somaliland, puntland and the TFG would be, what would be apropos of you is to explain what you believe would be their contribution not forgeting that I had already outlined that puntland and somaliland would just as well be targeted with in this strategic campaign, morally, financialy if not militarily. The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences. Arncachy is not the consequence of the strategy but rather the aim of xiin's strategy, and I believe I had already stated what I feel will be the extenet of foreign intervention in ethiopia, while clearly coignizant of the fact that it shall be pro T.P.L.F which if you have not noticed is not the same as being pro-ethiopia. If you feel that my analysis of the fundamentals of foreign intervention is not right I invite you to state how. Granted Ethiopia is composed of ethnic collections (nations) full of grievances and the tyrannical junta gives them every reason to rise up and change the status quo. The thing though is that each nation or ethnic group has its own divisions and the junta with all of the state’s trappings at its disposal knows how to exploit them. It is a two way street. Yes, the T.P.L.F regime has its own STRATEGY for retarding and defeating any revolt, what you are suggesting is that consequently any planned revolt is bound to failure, unless you as I and xiin have outlined a STRATEGY of how a revolt could succeed. It escapes me why would one go that far and commit one’s self to a project with such scope and consequences and avoid ending conflict through reconciliation process however difficult that proves to be. Again look before you leap. Get things right at home first before you day dream ways and means of pulling the rug under the Tigre regime. There have been several points raised by those who feel xiin's plans are unworkable, firstly that it is impossible and impractical. Here it has been accepted to be possible, while explanations of how it can be practical has been given. The other is that reconciliation is better than more destabilization. My contention is simple and I would like your answer of my contention.... There shall be not nationalistic, participative, genuine, scincere and long lasting somali reconciliation on the ground with the interference of Ethiopia, either in the actual reconciliation process such as ethiopian manipulation of the embagathi process, or ethiopian inteference in somalia proper such as it sponsorship of the sodere group to first encircle and then extinguish the TNG goverment formed at Arta under the aegis of a country other than ethiopia. Under those conditions genuine reconciliation is not only difficult as you understated it baashi but IMPOSSIBLE. The other accusation held against the strategy I have elucidated involves hoots of wishful thinking or day dreaming, my response is simple if the SOL admin insisted that only posters who made absolute practical sense and concrete plans for far reaching visions could post in the politics section, for a month, no one would post in the politics section for that month. Unfortunately people do not realize that the ETHIOPIANS do not plan for the propping up of the TFG but the eventual incorporation of Somalia in to Ethiopia, I believe this deeply and that that reality is not clear for some is something I work towards changing.

Ngonge said: LIQAYE, How in the world could I present a positive position on something I've already branded as impractical, saaxib? [Frown] Still, from your post I sort of understand your argument there to be something along the lines of: stop crushing our ideas and show us what you have, if you think you're clever enough! For purposes of civility and because we have not locked horns in the past, I shall refrain from stating the obvious here. Ngonge you know full well what I mean, we have not locked horns because I do not attempt to get into arguments with cyber entities, if there is an argument of ideas going on then I participate, if it is a witty comeback affair then I keep my tape measure in my pocket as I suggest you do. I appreciate that you have shown me the civility not to start with the sarcasm of the cynic but my previous post was not only directed at you but to the gallery as well. When I ask you to make some sort of positive statement I expected you enumerate how you think xiin's ideas would not work, to brand them impractical with out explaining why creates a non sequituir. So to keep the discussion on track I shall answer the questions you are asking [again do you notice the questions part in all your posts?] What is our goal here? free, peaceful, independent and united (at least against Ethiopian interference) Somalia. we agree here How will that goal be achieved? By destroying, disrupting, or unsettling Ethiopia! Not soley brother as you might have gleaned in my posts, but the neutering, destablisation, debilitation of ethiopia as things stand presently is a prerequsite in this case, a rape victim cannot be maligned for gouging out the eyes of their tormenter is it not so? Can Ethiopia be destroyed, disrupted or even unsettled long enough to allow Somalia to get back on its feet? Yes and please do not widen the scope of the argument unnecessarily, somalia would be afforded the chance to get on its feet rather than be held down on the ground. Why would these groups agree to work together and why have they not done it before? The groups would agree to work with each other not out of altruism but because each feels frustrated at the individual failures of each particular alphabet soup, they would work together because for the first time there is a real chance of prying meles from power, they would work together temporarily because they feel that they are best placed to benefit from the fall out, and finally because for the first time these groups have a state patron that is paramount in any geurilla movement [Eriteria]. Do all these groups agree on the need to unsettle or even destroy Ethiopia? Aren't some of them Ethiopians themselves? They agree on the need for a revolution and the usurption of power through the gun... does it not follow that this strategy will lead to the destabilisation of ethiopia fullfiling in the short and long term the needs of the strategy outlined by Xiin? Many darfuris are fighting for better representation and autonomy feeling that this will strengthen sudan but does the revolt not weaken sudan even as the dafuris proclaim their aims for a united democratic sudan? Does Eritrea's quarrel with Ethiopia extend beyond fighting for anything more than some disputed borders? Well how will eriteria maintain its gains among the disputed borders if it is to face a united Ethiopia every couple of years, indeed how can eriteria afford to maintain a cold war against any Ethiopian entity along the same lines? If then eriteria recognizes the need for a weak and compliant Ethiopia more intrested in eritria as a friend than an enemy then logically, Xiins strategy and that of erteria coalesce how ever selfishly? Do the ONLF boys want a union with Somalia? The question is who asked them, it is on a open secret that the reason why the ONLF is limited in its actions is because of the unfortunate clan dynamics being played out in the ONLF and somalia galbeed in general, in the event that the ONLF canvasess for independence the 60% of the somali population the is not Og*den will not accept the assurances of an organisation that failed woefully in the early 1990's to create a broad based goverment in somalia galbeed? Obviously in the event of a fight the ONLF will be at the forefront, but in the event of a referndum brother those who think like you that Og*denia will be an independent nation are not referring to the reality on the ground, this is real politik brother not a cake walk. Do Somaliland and Puntland consider it in their interests to sit by and watch these attempts at toppling Ethiopia? Here you assume that somaliland and puntland are themselves merely spectators on the contrary, as was amply seen by the actions of the governing kleptrocracies in rounding up what even looked like an ICU supporter, these entities are not immune to the infection that is being outlined. Also I think you err in assuming that both somaliland and puntland will do more than commit rendition to addis of suspects. Finally in which way do you think that somaliland and punt land can bring real mass to the side of the Ethiopians, can punt land garrison and supply a police station in beledweyne? then how can they help Ethiopia except by providing a fifth column, an eventuality that has already occurred and will obviously be factored in any planning? How and why will the rest of Somalia get itself involved in something they clearly consider to be a southern problem (through their inaction if not their words)? Escalation, brother escalation, what has happened in Bossaso and Hargeisa is a modus operandi not a reality set in stone. Think about it in terms of the terrorist's thinking a failure to understand a persons strategy is the supreme failure presaging actual failure on the ground. When a terrorist bombs a hotel or military installation he does not do so out of the belief that this solitary action will bring about the collapse of the government or the failure of the U.S, what he is doing is shaking up the status quo that does not favor him. The status quo as you have pointed out is clear but that this inactivity and univolvement would continue in the face of upheaval through out hte horn including with in somaliland, puntland and other regions is not to see what can change on the ground. The failure then would not be to adopt xiin's ideas but to believe that insurrection should be limited to benadiir, even if this is the area where initially the most effectiveness will be had! Is the goal really the resurrection of Somalia or is it the destruction of Ethiopia? The question IS the resurrection of Somalia by allowing Somalis to reach their own conclusions, now what YOU HAVE TO ANSWERis if you beleive that this shall occur in a full and fair manner with Ethiopian interference, that is not merely the policy of meles, seyoum mesfin, or the T.P.L.F but the policy and strategy of the entire ethiopian elite, and out of fear of hyperbole I shall not attempt to claim since Abyssinia but at least since Selassie. To follow on from the last question: what guarantees are there that those fighting will not obsesses with the idea of destroying Ethiopia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past) and they'll forget about saving Somalia (like what happened to the Barre government in the past)? In other words, when the Ethiopian elephant is brought down what is there to stop the vultures from returning to fight amongst themselves again? Well if as you have wrongly charecterised xiin's strategy as merely the destruction and weakening of Ethiopia, will the scenario that you paint not be a fulfillment of xiin's strategy? If ethiopia gets mired in a civil war who would be to blame proponents of xiin's strategy or the T.P.L.F's failure to grasp a chance in history for ethiopia to trully become an island of stability with the horn of africa rather than Against it. Do not misconstrue the above statement to be an attempt to clothe my arguments with moral arguments because I personally could not care less. Pps Kindly note that I've got a bleeding lip from biting it so hard in order to stop myself from scoffing at the film reference in your last post. I expect some credit for this mighty effort. [big Grin] again I apologize if it seemed that I was being sarcastic or trying to put you down, consider it as a musing rather than a description of your bold "Socratic" method. Now ngonge I do not wish for you to feel like I am harrasing you, but I have elucidated and pondered and answered every single question. But more questions with out any contribution on your part will lead me to two conclusions, first that the annoying child has finally won out in the battle for your psyche, or that at 4008 posts you still feel uncomfortable in taking up a position.

That was too easy.

Yes Castro the west is a variable in the equation but it is not an unknown variable, the history and pattern of western interference is predictable and sequential. Initially as the internal insurgency takes hold the west will choose to back the T.P.L.F regime, not only is this junta ruthless it is media friendly and know how to lobby in a sophisticated manner. But one cannot teach an old dog new tricks especially when the history of the old dog is as repetitive as that of Ethiopia, the T.P.L.F will punish the populace, the community, the region rather than carry out a targeted war COIN [counter insurgency] campaign, if any one doubts this look at the response of the T.P.L.F in oga*denia recently. Indeed the effort to blockade an entire region was unsuccessful in Oga@denia, poor, backward region on Ethiopia's backyard, it would work much less in the oromo highlands or in gurage. As the response of the government becomes more and more heavy handed, the moral authority of western involvement starts falling away assorted do - gooders, bored congressmen, media agencies with in search of the next darfur as that particular conflict die-down harp on the injustices and realities of T.P.L.F interaction with the west. As the cacophony of criticism becomes to loud and direct threats are made against the life blood of all tyrannies, namely aid and donor money, the government will attempt to negotiate its way out of the impasse, make the concessions that become more concessions, that eventually confer legitimacy to the rebel movement disproportionate to its numbers or actual ability. In the end the rot would have reached terminal stage as negotiation means one thing no despotism negotiates its self out of power. At this stage Ethiopian involvement in Somalia has already started to become haphazard, but overt in other ways such as the recognition of somaliland , but this will fundamentally merely create another friendly entity in the horn, as the need for the extreme fellatio the leadership of somaliland performs on all things ethiopian will no longer exist, and in the end the population of somaliland would be behind the struggles of their brothers in the rest of somali inhabited lands. But for the broad strokes I have outlined in the above post the rebel movement has to focus on some things to succeed, the foremost to try as much as possible to show a secular face, as well as atleast initially focus on the toppling of the goverment and not the dismemberment of the ethiopian nation. In the full on dependence on the west is the sign of an extremely weak position of the government.

Waar niyoow ngonge dont allow my ripeness to become a source of friction, things happened ages ago. Ngonge allow me to ask ever so nicely for us to change the focus for a moment I would like to do something with you and that is to force you off the negative which regardless of your new parameters of your post this thread will generate to the very thing you fear. It is always easier to argue from the negative side--criticizing other people's actions, dissecting their motives, etc. And that is why most people will opt for this. If they had to describe a positive vision of what they want in the world, or how they would accomplish a particular task, this would open them up to all kinds of attacks and criticisms. It takes effort and thought to establish a positive position. It takes less effort to work on what other people have done, and poke endless holes. It also makes you look tough and insightful, because people delight in hearing someone tear an idea apart, which is a major reason why most of what passes for discussion in SOL is merely shouting matches. Facing these negative-mongers in a debate or argument is infuriating. They can come at you from all angles. Hit you with sarcasm and snide comments, weave all kinds of abstractions that can make you look bad. If you lower yourself to their position, you end up like a boxer throwing punches into thin air. These opponents give you nothing to hit. Recently, I watched Michael Moore face off with a Dr. Gupta on CNN concerning the veracity of the statistics in his new film Sicko. It was an infuriating argument from Doctor Gupta. He was merely quibbling with a few figures. The implication was--we cannot trust this movie because Moore fudged some statistics; the director has an agenda and therefore he does not present a rational argument. Gupta met Moore's reasonable defenses with little snide comments and looks that implied the director is not forthright. This is very common with journalists who make a profession out of finding little things to attack, making it look like they are in the Woodward/Bernstein tradition of uncovering...something. Anything. So brother Ngonge how about you take up a positive position, on why this mutual lovefest is impractical then Myself and others can respond.

Castro said: that is the central argument of the Asmara group (and mine). I didn't know you were a fan. [big Grin] Allah, the smugness Brother read through my posts for as far back as you can get them, on the failure of the I.C.U's strategy and the T.F.G's caputure of mogadishu I thought that even the most malevolent individuals would start about building up even the modicum of an administration even a kleptrocracy to keep them in power for ever. Unfortunately even this fundamental human drive for domination escapes the cabal in baidoa that fails in every thing. But I had forseen that with out a nation wide mandate and a nation wide view of this struggle the insurgency would be confined to the benadiir hinterland, but I feel this is a failure of tactics rather than the prescient insight baashi seems to think it is. My argument was to subvert the T.F.G from the inside but a husk such as this dowlaad isku sheeg has no inside and should just be toppled over. The alliance of the A.R.S, O.L.F, O.N.L.F, S.D.M.O and islamic groupings need not win the war Castro, but their active coordination with in ethiopia would provide a counter point that will make ethiopian meddling in somalia to expensive in terms of finances manpower and prestige. With in Ethiopia the T.P.L.F would revert to the heavy handed genocidal tendencies that it has always used to maintain its strangle hold on power, this will only further motivate the disenchanted masses to revolt, in 1988 the S.N.M did the same exact thing it knew that militarily it simply could not hold the metroplis' of the north, but correctly identifying the tendencies of the Barre regime to mass punishment, its actions precipitated the short and murderous actions of the Barre regime in the long run the population was radicalized in to supporting the S.N.M turning men in to "mujahidin" where before that they were mere dead-enders. The same reality is all that needs to play out in Ethiopia and the end result if well managed will be the same! Remember the aim is not to win the battles but the over all strategic war.

D/P

Castro while xiin is formulating his ideas I would like for you to get a clearer grasp of somethings you have raised. Ethiopia is a failed state, undoubtedly in no ways is it any where near the level of Somalia, it still has a veneer of statehood and governmental control epitomised by the 200,000 man conscript army fodder it maintains, but the state of failure of Ethiopia is even more insidious for that very reason. The T.P.L.F regime has on a constant basis neglected the other arms of government that make a country, og*denia is lawless, the southern peoples region is almost lawless, oromia is restive and the amhara plot and plan for their glorious new reich after the tigrayan intergenum is overcome. Amidst the economic problems of feeding 70 m people the T.P.L.F regime has created a mafia like organization the commands almost the ENTIRE economy, in times of politicial disturbance the T.P.L.F has choosen to underpin the authority of the state solely on military might. Ethiopia is not the colossus some people erroneously think it is, fundamentally the Ethiopian elite realize this and are actively distabilising their neighbors before the same sort of attention is afforded to them! you also raise the issue of american subversion and the failures it often meets in the process, a proper reading of the history of american subversion will lead you to understand that the american often failed where they attempt to create scenarios and divisions that do not exist. Where there perfidy has followed and widened the fissures that were already there there subversive tactics almost always worked. You can say that America succeds when they sponsor an Idea whose time has come. In ethiopia the room for subversion is immense because the issues are already there and T.P.L.F arrogance has allowed them to fester for many years, poverty, discrimination, economic selectivism and genocidal actions visited upon swathes of the populace, all occuring within the backdrop of truly zero sum game politics, and the lack of any democratic institutions or history, [Ethiopia has never ever been a democracy and it is not even a part of the culture, an element of traditional guurti consultation or figurehead garaads, ugaases or suldaans is missing]means the opportunity for subversion and strategy is there. But I know that any individual reading my words might think that Ethiopia is more powerful and a fact is a fact. This only shows that a proper understanding of power is lacking, we all know about Gandhi and his concept of moral power, it worked in India and in south africa, this is a power that did not have the benefit of guns tanks or fighter jets but in the end it won. We might know the dictum of guerrilla movements articulated by mao where power was the support of the populace and not the number of guns and tanks possessed leading to the counter intuitive maxim of Kissinger where he said guerrilla movements seldom win wars but governments always lose them, through attrition or insurrection entire nations with unifying ethos and population homogeneity have changed hands due this very truism. Undoubtedly Ethiopia has the military might as well as the financial wherewithal while somalia is in chaos. But this Chaos is a source of power, Somalia's population have nothing to lose, Mogadishu is in rubble and has been bombed in to the stone age, they have nothing to lose, while the chaos in Somalia has finally drawn in uniformed Ethiopian troops, the stranglehold of the T.P.L.F on Ethiopia has already become slightly tenuous the O.L.F and the O.N.L.F have grasped this reality the S.D.M.O is coming around to it, while in Asmara there are considerable elements of the A.R.S who insist that the T.F.G should not be the target of violence and subversion but Ethiopia it self, for the first time the O.L.F, O.N.L.F, the S.D.M.O and other liberation groups are sitting down around the table to reach some sort of modus operandi within Ethiopia. A war with Eriteria would speed up the process. As for finances, you would be surprised how many countries would be willing to bank roll this adventure. Ayoub Said: Faarax Brawn The long term objective should be peace in the Horn of Africa not hostilities. Some of the views expressed here can alienate many including the staunchest anti-Meles Ethiopians out there. Not all Ethiopians (especially the millions and millions of Muslims) are responsible for what's happening in Somalia. I know Meles' boys have to be kicked out of all occupied lands, but will there an end to the hostility after that? How? If and when Somalis make peace within themselves they'll be safe. (Not the traitorous Mbagathi kind of peace.) Somalis will be safer if they follow this by making peace with the neighbouring people. This strategy would not alienate Ethiopians, the Oromos would be free the declare independence, autonomy, or create another junta ala the T.P.L.F, the southern nationalities would have the power they crave for, somalia galbeed would return to the motherland, the only malcontents would be the amhara tigray duopoly, and they brother wish, plan and strategize for domination, a failure to recognize this fact frightens me more than any of their machinations brother. You say that if Somalis make peace between themselves they will be safe undoubtedly that is true, destablising Ethiopia I do not suggest as an alternative for genuine inter-somali reconciliation, but I merely make clear that with ethiopia in the picture that shallNever happen.

If the humiliation of losing our nation-state and sovereignty is not enough, then at least the continuous suffering of our people should make this obsession with the "next PM" obsolete and non-issue. exactly who gives a damn?