In politics bravery is a very necessary aspect for success, to cross the Rubicon and to face down enemies is an element every successful statesman must posses, and your new government will be faced with many such opportunities, but an even more important aspect is the ability to recognize who your enemies truly are and were the real problems will occur even before you and by extension the people of Somalia have to face them.
When Hannibal was trapped in a valley before the great battle of Cannae he was faced by a trap laid by the Romans, indeed so confident was the Roman consul that he ordered his men to camp and restore their energies for what was going to be a day of truly epic slaughter of the Carthaginians.
In this cul-de-sac Hannibal used a simple yet effective ruse to save his skin and change the outcome of a hitherto foregone conclusion.
As the Romans camped on higher ground they heard bellowing and snorting and the most blood curdling screams emanating from the camp as they saw thousands of lit torches disappear over a ridge, the consul upon hearing the commotion and the news wore his purple tunic and ordered his men after the fleeing enemy, after a hot pursuit that seemed to last hours with the men still mesmerized by the howls of the enemy [Remember this was a very superstitious era] they too late discovered the mass of men where nothing but cattle left to their fate in the valley tied with torches by the carthaginians and driven up a hill, as the grew mad from the burning of the torches, they bellowed and ran up such a fuss the sound and the fury mesmerized an entire army into the wrong action.
Currently every one is pointing you in the direction of the battle, they point to the hill yonder where the din is coming from but as you are distracted by the noises of cattle your real enemies wish to surround you, envelop you and submerge you, history will mark your passage with a bear whimper. You will be remembered neither as an Intelligent man with too many enemies like Abdiqasin nor a vicious monstrosity that never dies like Abdullahi, you will have been a dunce a cow wearing an ciimamad.
For the moment al-shabaab seem terrifying, they control the land, they are the victors of the fight, there sacrifices allowed for your peace caravan to start ambling along its way, they have given pride to the somali people.
Every day their invective gets more hoarse, their deliberations seem to point to one thing how and where will you be killed you Murtad.
In such a situation it would be easy to invest energy and your meager resources into counter acting the thunder and lightning, but these are phenomena that though spectacular kill only 100 people a year more die from allergies of nuts than are killed by lightning.
The al-shabaab are through unfortunately they are the last to notice.
They are an alien implant, all their wippings and shootings, their bombings and arabic kunyas, their viciousness and lack of finesse, their emulation of a defeated organisation [al-qaeda] and kharajite ways were put up with by the somali populace for two reasons only they were fighting the ethiopians and they brought immediate peace to wherever they black flags were painted.
The ethiopians overt uniformed presence has gone and the peace they peddle has already proven to be too heavy handed to the Somali people be it in their social lab kismayoo or in their other experiment Dhuusa Mareeb.
With that there two main reasons for existence have been erased, but in their own plodding and blundering way they are attempting to create other reasons for self perpetuation, namely the creation of an islamic emirate, the liberation of somalia galbeed and the removal of another western puppet in Mogadishu [ This is you, if your bovine good nature might have led you to not notice ].
Dealing with them will not be easy but can be done:
State your support for an Islamic republic immediately
Be carefull to make it clear to emphasise the patriotic and nationalist actions of the al-shabaab in defending the soil of mother somalia
Go to asmara and persuade as many of the ARS asmara wing to join not only the new administration but the Parliament as well
Keep ethiopia in deed as well as speech as far away from you as possible, you have made you emollient statements now what we need is a fire eating speech in Beled weyne and Huddur that makes yur position on Babylon crystal clear
Get the al-shabaab off the terrorist list, in this days of Obama Yes you could, but a very public push would be acceptable
Invite the leadership of al-shabaab into the goverment and security forces [ keeping carefull to break up the structure of the organisation when integration in a new force is done] offer the rank and file new opportunites in demobilisation as well as in monetary terms, where they give a salary $ 100 offer $200, again with the proper presentation the funds would be available
Kill abu Mansoor - He is the only man dangerous enough to cause you problems, he has the charisma and the fatousness of a man who beleives he is right, but of all those in the al-shabaab he is the man who can rally and harness the dead-enders of that organisation into a problem that might derail and divert your attention, needless to say do not have your prints on that particular action [no mobile phone messages this time ]
The above actions would whittle down the organization it self defections would turn into a flood, the reaction of al-shabaab will be as it has always been as the dead enders congregate more and more of their actions will alienate the population, the lake they swim in will dry up leaving them floundering and gasping for air.
Truth be told their contagion which is of radical and odd islam will always be there but your job is to contain it for the duration of your presidency.
Ahlu-sunnah wal jamcaa is your true nemesis.
Today they claim to stand in the name of moderate home grown islam, traditional islam that sits lightly on the shoulders, their story of creation charms the heart as they claim to be defending the rights of the oppressed Somali bewildered by shootings for smoking and stonings of rape victims, already they have the support of so many who know one thing and know it well and that is that they hate the al-shabaab and ergo ipso facto would support the devil himself against them.
In terms of ideology they wish to occupy your centrist ground of sweet reasonableness and your brand of moderation, in this they are more dangerous than such simpletons as the al-shabaab.
Make no mistake some of them are sincere and truly repulsed by the excess of the shabaab they support ahlu sunnah but these men of valor are not the problem for they will support you offered plum positions or not.
The real danger are all the little sheikhs and ulema of dubious learning, that enjoying the trappings of power and the whir of the technical clearing the way for what was previously some obscure chanting dervish, the real danger are the former warlords who slough off their skins with each change in political climate, the real danger is the hand of Ethiopia that guides and directs and caresses an "islamic" movement which they hope you will rely on and grow dependent on, finding yourself being slapped by another Ethiopian general in a years time.
They wish to exploit the nexus of the clan and the religion, entrenching them selves and changing the actors with out changing the dynamic namely a Somalia divided along faction lines yesterday in the name of clans and individuals and today in the name of religion and sheikhs.
Disband them, harangue them, bribe them, but never allow them to coalesce around you, never allow them to win singular victories and do not go chasing cattle with Hannibal at your back.
