Abtigiis;754176 wrote: He will prove me wrong if he sticks to his gun for long. And I will concede defeat gracefully. Anyway, I just heard the AMISOM spokesman saying Sheikh Sharif barred them from expanding into districts outside Mogadishu, mainly towards Afgoi. Some are saying the Sharif sensed the exit is near and is creating scenes. Somalis usually become patriotic at sunset. Having said that there is nothing wrong with his stance if he remains consistent. What exit? His own?

^ They will never realize it. Their interests are not even close the forefront. Yusuf Xaaji is only there to help soften the base at the ground nothing more nothing less. It amazes that some actually believe their clan interests are at the top of the agenda other pro or against.

The PM came out denying he supports the invasion and Sharif is sticking by his guns lol interesting developments. Also claimed he had the paper which has the agreement and its shows nothing about an incursion.

NAIROBI — Recent heavy fighting in Somalia including Kenya's military assault in the south is deepening the world's worst humanitarian crisis in the war-torn nation, aid agencies warned on Wednesday. Fighting has choked aid deliveries and blocked civilians trying to escape across the border into Kenya, while heavy rains have raised the risk of water-borne diseases potentially fatal for a weakened population. The United Nations estimates that 3.7 million Somalis -- around one-third of the population -- are on the brink of starvation and tens of thousands have already died in a country that has lacked effective government for two decades. Civilians who have already fled extreme drought are now "facing multiple displacements in the wake of the military activities," the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warned. "The military build-up is causing anxiety among the civilian population," it said. "Movement of humanitarian personnel and supplies are also likely to be restricted, subsequently affecting the timely delivery of assistance to populations in need." Kenya's unprecedented military incursion 11 days ago, launched after attacks on its territory and the abduction of several foreigners on its soil who were taken to Somalia, stunned the region. Oxfam warned that "the situation in Somalia is increasingly alarming," adding that famine zones are "expected to spread over the next month, including to some of the regions that are now facing further conflict." "Kenya has legitimate security concerns, and has already welcomed a huge number of refugees, but it must continue to ensure that people can seek safety and shelter," it said in a recent statement. Kenyan troops have pushed some 100 kilometres (60 miles) into southern Somalia, areas controlled by the Al-Qaeda-linked Shebab militants, but restricting routes for civilians fleeing fighting, aid workers say. "Continued insecurity and military activities at the Somali-Kenya border have restricted movement, causing a sharp decline of Somalis entering Kenya to 100 last week, down from 3,400 week before," OCHA said. In effect, nearly 5,000 Somalis fled into Ethiopia in the first half of October, almost twice the rate of arrivals in September, it added. But humanitarian work inside Kenya has also been restricted, especially in Dadaab -- the world's largest refugee camp with some 463,000 people -- following the kidnap of two Spanish aid workers earlier this month. Their employer, Medecins Sans Frontiers (MSF, Doctors Without Borders), said it remained committed to provide healthcare to those in need, but that "the level of assistance to populations is being deeply impacted by such attacks." The UN refugee agency says provision of food, water and critical healthcare continues but other routine activities are suspended in Dadaab. "We are trying our best to work under security constraints, but the humanitarian needs in Dadaab remain huge and the challenges are mounting," Fafa Attidzah, UNHCR chief in Dadaab, said in a statement. Some 152,500 Somalis have registered in Dadaab camp this year alone, UNCHR says. The International Organisation for Migration said its work in Dadaab was "abruptly brought to an end" after the kidnappings, halting crucial activities including polio immunisations. In central Somalia on Tuesday three workers from the Danish Demining Group - a Somali, an American and a Dane - were abducted in Galkayo, a town which straddles the border between Puntland and the self-proclaimed separate region of Galmudug. The three were reportedly taken east towards the anarchic Hobyo district, a region notorious for pirate gangs. This latest attack could have implications for other NGOs operating in central Somalia. Recent battles in Mogadishu against Shebab fighters have also also forced the suspension of a measles vaccination by MSF, which it warns has become "the main killer of children in Somalia" alongside malnutrition. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gnJYHR3yxvh_zWByFd0iLG-IRQYQ?docId=CNG.a69844f3690cbcf8b940a50b773de124.1b1

IROBI, Kenya — The United Nations says the number of famine refugees flowing into Kenya slowed to a trickle after Kenyan troops moved into Somalia. The U.N. said Wednesday that only 100 Somali refugees entered Kenya last week, down from 3,400 the week before. 0 The U.N. Refugee Agency said military operations and heavy rains at the border have contributed to the reduced flow. Kenyan troops moved into Somalia around Oct. 15. Since January, 152,000 Somalis have been registered at the Dadaab refugee camps in Kenya, an average of more than 3,500 a week. UNHCR says it is possible more refugees are moving into camps in Ethiopia instead of Kenya because of the new military activity. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis are at risk of starvation because of the country’s famine. Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This mat http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/un-kenyan-military-action-greatly-slows-famine-refugee-flow-from-somalia/2011/10/26/gIQAtREJIM_story.html

Most clear thought analysis I've read this week. For all the hoop-la about new found administrations and the TFG's supposed gains these are admins that exist only because their benefactors allow for them to do so. They are accountable to their benefactors, not the Somali people, so it would only make sense to consider their benefactors policy goals when evaluating them. For all intents and purposes, the IC and the U.S. specifically are fed up with the TFG, and have even passed the point Che described in washing their hands of the country. They operate solely with security interests in mind, which are quite clear. To contain Somalia's problems and groups they consider as a possible threat. This is not to suggest ia sinister plot, but these interests do not coincide with building a functioning state and government. If the TFG had the credibility and basis to fill the vacuum with credible governance perhaps it could be argued otherwise, but all you need to see is the confusion over this incursion to underline that their hosts have lost confidence in them as well. Decisions are made over their head, without consideration to their position or interest, and I do not say how they have proven the ability to reverse this pattern. The Kenyan incursion whether in response to genuine Kenyan security or economic interests, was not made in partnership with Somali objectives whatsoever. Until you realize that the trajectory of these foreign interventions is not in line with the creation of any functioning Somali state/region, I do not see how the argument can be made to support them. In fact, as history has consistently proven, such developments often compound the issues at hand and multiply the actors involved. It'll take a lot more than empty declarations to prove this time will be different.

lol If you believe this story.

Abtigiis;753899 wrote: So, you want the Kenyan's to have an indefinite manadate to exorcise the ills of its aggression? or you are simply worried the militas who replace them will fight each other? Is that not true to the TFG army in Mogadishu too? Are they not fighting each other right now in many occassions? Are they not attacking food distribution centers? What makes you believe they will break down into factions when Amisom withdraws? Or do you forsee a Somali with Amsiom as its national defence force for ever? What shallow logic are are you coming up GC? Quite uncharacterstic of you! Anyway, the issue was never about this. It was about Shabab cannot be defeated by foreigners, Xinn's argument. To make it clear, I've never fully endorsed the TFG, AMISOM or its initiatives.I have zero dog in this fight and I believe there is little long term hope on a continued reliance on foreigners to impose governance, especially when governance proves to be highly ineffective. This extends to the TFG as well. I am far from a TFG or Sharif cheerleader, but on this specific issue I see the Kenyan intervention as only compounding and multiplying the relevant problems you've referred to as opposed to solving them. Considering you've brought up the many, legitimate, flaws with the TFG approach, I can only see the Kenyan intervention as a worse example. I have issues with both, I am far from inconsistent, but this seems particularly egregious.

Abtigiis;753886 wrote: There was no argument Xinn all along. You were playing tha man,not the ball, and I refused to play this wrong game. But in the meantime what we started to cajole time and have a grin led us to a discovery of mammoth importance. It showed us Xinn's restless caravan has a defined destination, one that doesn't need long trek. We followed your reasoning and as it spin, spin, and spin at different levels like a finely-knit Iranian carpet some fool tore apart, the last thread came up with a name: It is called Kismayo. On the issue, are we now going to also go qualifying which foreigner is good and which one is bad? You said Alshabab can only be defeated by somalis. Amisom are not Somalis, unless you are saying all with black head (sheeps included) are Somalis. Why would you think they will defeat Alshabab then? And if they can't defeat Alshabab, why should they sleep next to your Sharif? Some consistency please, even from the grave! Or are you saying there is another dimension to this and the Alshabab in Mogdishu can be defeated by foreign troops but those in the Jubbas can't? Well the differences in security terms are clear. AMISOM has an indefinite mandate in the capital, the Kenyans do not. Unless you think the Kenyans are planning to indefinitely occupy the region( dont think this will work either), I don't see the point in arguing in hypotheticals. They will hand over whatever they gain to their handpicked allies. Do you believe those allies will be able to stabilize the region? Hold off AS when the Kenyans leave? Or even hold off opposition from other Somali factions opposed to their agenda? Serious question.

Ennahda has inherited a state with a developed civil society and has modified its views significantly to meet the needs of its country, much like the AKP. The Tunisians already have agreements set in place regarding how the structure of their government will be formed. Ennahda even unilaterally agreed to allow the election of the President to not be decided by popular vote, something they would easily win. They also cannot write the constitution alone and are already in talks with some opposition parties to form a coalition in Parliament. All this indicates a party that has politically maturity and has adapted to its context. The context of Tunisia is nothing like that of the examples usually referred to, as was the case in Turkey and hence the results.

BTW here is the PM supporting the Kenyan incursion in an interview with a Canadian paper: http://www.thestar.com/videozone/1075193--somalian-pm-speaks-to-the-star?bn=1 This isnt good news for the TFG at all, unless he clarifies his position.

xiinfaniin;753845 wrote: Prof. Abtigiis, I need your attention for a nano second. Armed warlords are what created Alshabaab, it is what gave Ashabaab the credibility they enjoyed so long. Alshabaab are thousand times better than those who destroyed Somalia, and sacked the capital. Those who raped and maimed the innocent because they were reer hebel. So yes Alshabaab are better than armed qabiils with political ambitions. Hear that. I do not buy the notion that everything is better than Alshabaab. For your reference here are some ideas that can never be better than Alshabaab 1- Warlords 2- Foreign Invasions 3- Somali mercenaries equipped and supported by foreign intelligence armies Alshabaab is not an invincible entity. They can be easily defeated if there is a native army with political legitimacy. The closest we have is the poorly equipped soldiers in Mogadishu. If Kenya is serious in combating Alshabaab they could support the TFG, and enhance its fighting capacity. That I can support. But invading the whole region with swagger and the arrogance Yusuf Xaaji displayed is unbearable and points to other sinister motives. Perfectly said. This falls fully in line with the typical trajectories of Somali politics and conflict. Revisionist history that has AlShabaab beginning in a vacuum unrelated to the larger Somali conflict is shortsighted. There is no indication Azania could stabilize the region when the Kenyans leave and it will almost certainly create further clashes between those who oppose the project. If alShabaab is the utmost concern, do we not realize how these developments will strengthen them? This is without even considering that the Kenyan's motives are not altruistic and are very much based on economic interest. I dont see any convincing argument that can advance that these developments are in Somali interests, security or otherwise.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hzjxLVASEVwM57LK09nWhrCLjxUg?docId=9427593cbd5945cf827c085e213605aa NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Somali gunmen kidnapped an American aid worker and her Danish colleague on Tuesday from northern Somalia, officials said. The 60-year-old Danish man and the 30-year-old American woman were working for the Danish Demining Group when they were seized in northern Somalia, two Nairobi-based officials said. They asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The group did not immediately answer phone calls placed to its headquarters in Denmark following the attack, which happened near the Puntland capital of Galkayo. The two Westerners were taken by gunmen while on their way to the airport, said Ahmed Mohamed, a police officer in the Somali town of Galkayo. Galkyo is divided in two, a northern section under the control of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, and a southern section under the control of a a clan called Galmudug. Mohamed said the two kidnapped Westerners crossed into the southern side of the town and were abducted there. The Danish Demining Group helps dispose of unexploded bombs and teaches communities about the dangers of land mines and other ordinance, according to its website. The role of the two aid workers was unclear. The kidnapping comes only weeks after the seizure of two women working for Doctors Without Borders from a refugee camp in neighboring Kenya, as well as the kidnappings of two European tourists from Kenya's coast. Somali gunmen were suspected in those attacks. Kenya said that it sent some 1,600 forces into southern Somalia to attack al-Shabab militants in response to those kidnappings, though it's not clear al-Shabab militants were responsible for the abductions. The northern semiautonomous province of Puntland is generally considered more stable than most of the rest of Somalia, which is riven between pirate gangs, Islamist insurgents and militias and the weak U.N.-backed government in the capital. It has not had a functioning central government for the last 20 years. - What does this call for lol?

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/One+dead+13+injured+in+second+city+blast+/-/1056/1261260/-/140nfwf/-/index.html Read the comment section, lol the Kenyans have lost the plot.

LOL so now opposing a divisive clan enclave set up only with respect to foreign interest is solely a clannish position. Incredible.

I seriously doubt the Kenyan authorities would allow a massive pogrom that would target the entire Somali community/properties. It seems as usual those who have the least protection/resources will bear the brunt of this reaction. If I am wrong and it becomes something on a massive scale this will be disastrous for the Kenyan economy in general. It is definitely not in Kenyan interest to get rid of Somalis, however things can change on a dime in such environments. The media campaign has been especially xenophobic and your average joe certainly has been riled up.

Duufaan;753671 wrote: Azonia can not be created without kenya and cannot survive without Kenya. what is the point having than. Exactly. If Sharif opposed this because of Azania that is 100 percent legitimate and I give him credit for doing so.

The Zack;753655 wrote: LOL For real? If one is attacking your home, you will stay defensive all the time yaah? Commons sense would disagree, common sense would say attack and attack harder and destroy the heck out of your enemy. Dhinaca kale, it is amazing how incompetent our so called president is. First he supports the Kenyan incursion, welcomes Kenyan ministers to his house, and all of the sudden makes a statement that nobody has an idea of where it came from. Wey kasoo fakatay duqa. A, if he is against the incursion, he should've said so in the first place and he shouldn't have agreed to the written pact. B, He should oppose this in a proper legal way, contact the UN. Did anybody actually listen to Yusuf Haji's outburst on the BBC? "Maybe Shariifka supports Al-Shabaab" kulahaa :D Interesting, did the Brits invade Somalia when that couple got kidnapped? Did the countless Western ships who have been targeted call for a ground invasion because of the disruptions? Territorial integrity and a full scale incursion isn't as light a matter as you are portraying it. Nothing Kenya experienced justified it either. This is not to mention there is no evidence that the whole pretext of this war is even legitimate. Even MSF has questioned the Kenyan claims and those are their workers. The old lady was not kidnapped by alShabaab, and this is a fact that is well acknowledged. So again its not as clear cut as you are portraying it, and the possible negatives that could occur from this ill thought move are countless. Sharif is right to oppose, and I think the MP's in question have an agenda that has triggered this emotional outburst lol.

Naxar Nugaaleed;753629 wrote: lol, I don't think I am ill informed but just had High hopes that one, just one Arab nation would break this endless cycle/stereotype of islamist, dictator, islamaist dictator for the love of God and turn into a normal democracy among other things. lol You are being very alarmist if you think this will devolve into a dicatorship. They will not unilaterally write the constituion they've already agreed to form a coalition with one of the 2nd or 3rd places parties. Also who exactly were the Islamist dictators in the Arab world? Last I checked everyone from Assad to Mubarak to Ben Ali to Saleh were much closer to being secular than Islamist.

Naxar Nugaaleed;753585 wrote: what is a "moderate islamist" to you and is there such theocratic democracy? Did this people fight for theocracy or democracy and how you have both. Ghannouchi is claiming to have found the right recipe and we can only wait and see. furthermore, I can't help but feel that ignorant rural folk along with cowardly "moderate islamist" have hijacked what only the people of Tunis and the "liberal coast" had the courage to undertake. furthermore, I believe this will endanger the unfinished democratic revolution in the rest of the Arab world. Imagine anyone supporting the Yemen with al-qaeda in the Arab peninsula waiting at the gate, or the syrians with the ruling religious minorities in fear of any change, or Egypt with its large coptic christian community who fought along with other prodemocracy protesters in tahrir square. Actually the areas that set off the protests were not the coast, but the center of the country. Mohamed Bouazizi was from Sidi Bouzid which is from the same areas you are referring to. Almost everyone including Tunis residents give credit to them for starting the revolution. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_revolution It wasn't until three weeks into the uprisings that they spread to the capital. They were late to jump abroad. Also many in the capital voted for Ennahda as well.

How many AS attacks in Kenya before the Kenyan escalation can anyone let me know?

I've also heard rumours that a major reason for the stance is that Kenya is heavily arming and abetting the likes of the Ras Kamboni group, a militia he will likely have trouble bringing under his command if Kenya has its wishes of an Azania state. Considering this as well as the fact that many analysts see this incursion as likely being counterproductive, I have no issues with his opposition. I'm not the biggest fan of his leadership or his "flipflopping" but I will give credit where credit is due, and today I think he deserves it. Best move he's made in a long time. Now is there any truth to the argument that this has caused a rift with the new PM?

What is wrong with Ghannouchi or Ennahda? Have you ever heard him speak? Stop the alarmist talk this doesnt vindicate Ben Ali at all, the guy is nowhere near an extremist. In fact I expect him to put a good showing in government, and prove those jumping the gun wrong.

^ You can't be serious about US funded entity. Talk to anyone who has similar religious views to alShabaab and ask them what they think of Gaddafi. Gaddafi was brutal to anyone who challenged him especially on issues of Sharia Law, which is something alShabaab obviously shares an affinity for. That is why they don't care if the Americans supported it as long as they get an opportunity to rule the country the way they see fit. Same way why Afghan rebels didnt care that the Americans funded them as long as they got the chance to get control of the country.

Another response Ken Menkhaus is Associate Professor of Political Science at Davidson College and an expert on Somalia Richard Dowden touches on a lot of issues in his piece. Let me focus my comments on his central thesis – the need for Somali state-building and peace-building to be accomplished with sub-national entities – regional governments – serving as the main source of power and as the main actors negotiating the terms of a national government. This is an approach that is gaining traction in international and some Somali circles, manifested in the current arrangements for regional entities to pay a direct role in the transitional roadmap in Somalia. It is an idea borne of frustration with repeated failures of top down state building in Somalia, and has the distinct advantage of building on what works – local and regional administrations in Somalia have achieved modest but real achievements, and enjoy a greater degree of local ownership, accountability, and legitimacy than has the TFG and its predecessors. But like all proposed solutions, this one solves some problems and creates new ones, and we need to be frank about some of the shortcomings of the ‘confederal model’ in the Somali setting. First, it is disliked by many Somalis, and not just the corrupt elites presiding over the loot-fest we call the TFG. Somali nationalists see it as a path to disintegration and an Ethiopian plot to keep Somalia divided and weak. Some Somali clans see it as a recipe for marginalization, if their home area is devoid of natural resources or ports where revenues can be raised. But the biggest problem of all – and one that has persistently plagued both Somalia and neighboring Ethiopia (which embraced an ethno-federalism model twenty years ago, though only partially implementing it) – is the question of identity and rights in a federal or confederal system. Because the federal model is, in the minds of almost all Somalis, code for clan-based regions, the organization of Somalia into federal states begs the critical question of who has the right to live, own land, and make full political clams in these entities? Are these to be strictly ethno-states? Or may any Somali enjoy full claims to live in any confederal state, in which case they are purely administrative units, more akin to the American federal model than the Swiss one? Unfortunately, for all of Somaliland’s and Puntland’s successes, they have defined citizenship in their territory in exclusivist clan terms, treating other clans as at best “guests” (galti) and at worst as illegal immigrants. Puntland’s expulsion of south-central Somalis last year made this amply clear. There is a long running debate among Somalis over the nature and basis for rights – rights by blood, rights by birth, or rights by citizenship. Until that is resolved, federal and confederal models are an invitation to fight rather than a promising solution to the vexing problem of state revival in Somalia. I personally think some form of decentralized governance in Somalia has great potential, but not until fundamental issues of citizenship and rights are clarified. That, among other things, is a matter that the TFG is supposed to be addressing in its constitutional committee.