The famine camps with their domed shelters made of rags and sticks are now surrounded by fields of green. The survivors sit among the clouds of flies and mosquitoes watching the planting season pass them by, living on handouts. The drought in southern Somalia is over but no one is going home. People who have endured civil war, oppression under a brutal religious sect and starvation now find themselves caught between the lines of a border conflict that is entering a new and dangerous phase. Kenya's invasion of Somalia, hailed by the West and the UN Security Council, was meant to deliver a knockout blow to the militant Islamist group al-Shabaab. Instead it has pulled Somalia's regional rival Ethiopia back into the country, stirred up the warlords and rekindled popular support for fundamentalists whose willingness to let Somalis starve rather than receive foreign aid had left them widely hated. Nuur Matan, with his camouflage cap and business suit, is part of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that the UN and the foreign armies are backing against al-Shabaab. With their help it has wrested back control of the capital, Mogadishu. An MP for Beled-Hawo, a lawless Somali town in the border triangle where the Horn of Africa country meets Ethiopia and Kenya, he talks gamely of defeating al-Shabaab. In reality his forces are little more than guns for hire and he has no money. "We're trying our best to pay our soldiers," he says, before admitting there's been no money for four months. The TFG "soldiers" include children as young as 14, who hire themselves out to all comers. Those who have joined up but haven't been paid are selling their guns and uniforms at the local market. The yellow star of the Somali flag flies in the town centre but it is the Ethiopian army camped on the outskirts who are the real authority in Beled-Hawo. The Ethiopians entered Somalia for a second time in late November – a move prompted, analysts believe, by the desire to assert their own interests in the country after Kenya's incursion. The Ethiopians have so far resisted marching further into Somalia; their last incursion five years ago led to a fierce Islamic resistance movement that established al-Shabaab as a national force. In many of the border towns, TFG soldiers have fallen under the command of former warlords. Before invading the country Kenya gave guns, uniforms and rudimentary training to any ethnic Somalis willing to cross the border and fight the militants. Now that al-Shabaab has been pushed back, these militias are meant to fill the gap. The result, says Abdullai Abdi from the Kenya-based Somali relief agency Northern Aid, is a rabble often more frightening to ordinary Somalis than is al-Shabaab. "When Shabaab was on the other side, yes they were brutal, chopping hands, but the criminal element was not there," said Mr Abdi. "I know these people, I know their families – they are thugs and criminals." Al-Shabaab, which retreated from the borderlands months ago, has switched to guerrilla tactics and melted into the population. Meanwhile in the interior of Somalia, in places like Buluk, 100 kilometres from Beled-Hawa, the militants have barged into schools and press-ganged entire classes into joining them. Kenya's first foreign war, which began triumphantly in October with embedded reporters sending breathless reports from the front, is coming off the rails. "The military operation is going nowhere," says Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst with the International Crisis Group. "I'm not sure it has really damaged the Shabaab." He says that the Kenyan-TFG forces have moved no more than 70km into the country and only control the main roads. Kenya has had to admit that it cannot afford to fight on its terms. The war is costing an estimated £140m a month, which the country can ill afford amid soaring inflation and public sector strikes. Last week it was forced to ask the African Union to take over its operation in the hope that the international community would pick up the bill, as it does for the African peacekeepers guarding Mogadishu. The consequences of the misadventure have already blown back across the border, where previously an uneasy peace reigned between the Islamists and their southern neighbours. Kenyan towns are coming under increasing attack from al-Shabaab assassination squads and roadside bombs. The Kenyan defence forces, unprepared to fight a counter-insurgency, have in many cases turned on their own population. In Mandera, across the border from Beled-Hawo, another Kenyan soldier was killed by a roadside bomb last Sunday and four more were injured. Each time a bomb has gone off the army has gone house to house in the area doling out punishment beatings to local Kenyan-Somalis. Abdi, who cannot give his real name for fear of reprisals, was among those beaten after an explosion in Mandera this year. He suffered serious head injuries, including a fractured eye socket, when soldiers smashed their way into his home and beat him in front of his wife. He spent two months in hospital. "To them, Somalis are Somalis. It doesn't matter that we're citizens," he says. "They can beat us when they like." An eight-year-old boy had his arms broken and a pregnant woman miscarried in similar assaults more recently. Abdi worries that the beatings, in a town where the population is overwhelmingly Kenyan-Somali, will push some people into supporting al-Shabaab. Many in Mandera don't know who to be more scared of, the Kenyan soldiers or al-Shabaab insurgents. Death squads have carried out targeted killings and one community elder known to be critical of the militants was shot six times at close range as he left the mosque last month. District Commissioner Benson Leparmorigo has taken to carrying his rifle with him wherever he goes. He admits that some people have been "roughed up" in the "heat of passion" after bomb attacks but complains that security forces face an "invisible enemy" that hits and runs. "You can't tell the difference between a Kenyan-Somali and a Somali: they look alike," complains Erick Okumbo, the deputy police chief. He says the attacks, which are carried out using adapted land mines set off by mobile phones, are "psychological torture". The militants are evading the Kenyan army, he says, and roaming up and down the borderlands looking for soft targets: "They come along the border and we are not enough to cover the whole border." As the human and financial costs of the war mount it has started to fade from Kenyan television sets. A local journalist who photographed wounded Kenyan and TFG soldiers in the northern town of Garissa last week – after a battle which authorities had denied happened – was arrested and had his images deleted. The council of elders at the Beled-Hawo famine camp remember with distaste the rule of Somalia's last central government, under the dictator Siad Barre. They recall the chaos and bloodshed of the warlords who took his place, and they have chafed more recently at living under the yoke of al-Shabaab. Now they think Somali society's clan system is too complicated for foreigners to fix even if they really wanted to. "We don't know what the motives of outsiders are," says one. "Only God or the Somalis can solve Somalia's problems" http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/unbacked-invasion-of-somalia-spirals-into-chaos-6276959.html

Look at the General/Officer at 1:24. Yemeni origin? Also why are you such a huge fan of this guy, what's so remarkable about him?

Good posts, both the initial one and the response above. I'm interested in Mintid's response to the above post. Hopefully this doesn't get hijacked in a predictable manner, before I get a chance to add my two cents lol.

As expected the Gunners coast through to the knockout stage. Chelsea proving they are a club from a bygone era. AVB will be lucky to have a job by January.

Jacpher;760524 wrote: ^right. I think you guys are misreading it. The cartoon depicts Axmed not Cabdi. Axmed is the only Samater that fit here. The cartoon is definitely depicting Cabdi look at the hair lol.

I can agree with you there, but I'm hard pressed to share such optimism with regards to their ability to defeat alShabaab. Seems their presence often only entrenches their base and propaganda, then it weakens them. If there was any evidence to the contrary, I could grudgingly support the incursions, but there is not. Just like Mahiga, Kenya/Ethiopia( and all foreigners) do not care if alShabaab and TFG fight till time immemorial as long as the problems are confined within Somalia and far away from their borders and interests.

Abtigiis;760349 wrote: I support Ethiopian invasion 100%. As I said, Somalia needs stability first and political independence and soverignity second. It cannot continue to be a basket case and a money-making machine for the UN and Mahiga. What is going on is disgusting. Now the UN has issued a report saying three regions are out of famine, as if that is because of humanitarian assistance provided to these areas. IT IS NOT. It is because the rains have come and people have simply stopped to go to the camps that were set up during the Jilaal season. It is surprising that the downgrading of the needs comes at a week a survey on IDPs in Mogadishu revealed that there are 180,000 IDPs only (even this is false), while UNHCR and WFP were 'providing' food and non-food items to close to 1 million IDPs in the past few months in Mogadishu. It is causing a big embarrassment and the declaration of Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle famine-free is to pre-empt donor suspicions and backlash. So, Somalia needs dawlad la xisaabtanta the predatory UN and NGOs. Upon hearing Kenya is attacking the Jubbas, it was surprising to hear all the whites in the UN restlessly shouting 'why is this happening? the humanitarian situation will get worse'. Waxaa la diidan yahay meeshu inay accessible noqoto si loo qariyo malaayinta lagu cunayo nairobi in the name of 'there is no acccess to Alshabab areas'. Go Ethiopia finsish Alshabab. This is 2011 not 2006 when we all foolishly thought the ICU were bringing order to the country. I am confused. This posts uses so many different arguments to rationalize a position of support, some of which contradict each other. For one where do you get the impression that these incursions will weaken Mahiga's sway? He has both publicly and privately supported them.If this was against his interest as you are attempting to portray it, why hasn't he expressed any displeasure with it? A critique of NGO's and their practices can also be tabled, but what does this have to do with Ethiopia/Kenya's incursions? Do you believe there presence will lessen the role of NGO's or reform them? I have no idea how you've reached this conclusion either. Since you and many others, continue to herald such a position of support as a pragmatic one, why don't you articulate why you believe it will be successful? Blind hope is not enough, as I thought that was only the zone in which latte sipping optimists languish. Outline to us how and why you have the utmost confidence in these troops ability to eradicate alShabaab without a trace and restore legitimate governance?

Dabrow;760190 wrote: Well even if I had practional solution those stooges would not change their stance. They are merely following foreign interests. Its foreign interest at play here, even if it may serve Somalia interest in short term it wont be in the long term. Its not naive to oppose foreign invasion, its formula that did not work in the past, and created alshabab. Who knows what this invasion will bring to fruition. I'm only echoing the posts of the rational and pragmatic actors on this forum. In other words I'm being sarcastic lol.

Its ok. Stay on course. Accept this unless you have a practical solution. Otherwise you are a latte sipping daydreamer and naive.

The SCAF really screwed up. With the Ikhwan now clearly against them, they've created a united opposition against their rule all across the political spectrum. It is good news for the future of Egyptian poltiical rule however. I am glad the Ikhwan and their allies were astute enough not to blow their legitimacy in order to ensure a good relationship with the military, despite the likelihood they will win the election.

Mintid Farayar;759097 wrote: Goldcoast, While the scale of military/political/financial/manpower involvement is not the same, there are some similarities between the two theaters - precisely because of the facts you've stated. A- the relatively powerful neighbors vis-a-vis the ailing country B- the leverage of these neighbors on different players within the ailing group C- the involvement of superpowers from different regions of the world The geopolitical significance might not be as significant (none of the competing neighbors possess nuclear arms), but it seems like a template on a smaller scale. As for Sharif being a Karzai, Karzai lately became relevant as an independent actor simply through playing the different outside forces against each other. Does Sharif have that ability? I don't know, but the performance of the last few years has not impressed. P.S. Karzai, like Sharif, has no state infrastructure/institutions beneath him - just an umbrella of supporting warlords. Valid points. But in essence it is still not a template for success at all. Karzai' and Afghanistan's position is incredibly tenuous, and if the Americans continue to move towards a full withdrawal, it'll likely be a question of only when and not if the Taliban returns. I think the lesson that should be drawn from the Karzai comparison isn't what posturing can do, but how little foreign intervention can defeat similar foes definitively. It is incredible to consider that the survival of Karzai and what he heads still exists solely on the presence of foreign troops a full decade after the American invasion. Karzai just today made a statement warning of "interference" , all while later requesting for the indefinite stay of American troops.

Whatever the actual political motivations of this new effort, military force is unlikely to solve Somalia’s Problems When political leaders call for the application of military force, it is always useful to assess the intended political and military objectives. Quite often, those objectives are reactionary, ephemeral, or unachievable given the resources committed and the political will of decision makers. The unexpected invasion by Kenyan forces into Somalia to defeat the notorious militant group, al-Shabaab, offers such an opportunity to analyse the motives and potential outcomes of this use of force. What are the intended objectives of the Kenyan military in Somalia? On October 16, government spokesperson Alfred Mutua said Kenyan troops are “pursuing al-Shabaab across the border.” A few days later, he claimed that the Kenyan military would “track down and dismantle the al-Shabaab.” Meanwhile, an anonymous Kenyan official declared, “They’re going all the way to Kismayo [an al-Shabaab-controlled port 155 miles from the Kenyan border]. We’re going to clear the Shabaab out.” The rapid escalation of military objectives leads to another question: why exactly did Kenya invade Somalia? The invasion was initially justified as a response to three kidnappings of westerners in northern Kenya over the past month. Two of those kidnapping attempts resulted in the deaths of a fifty-eight year old British tourist and a sixty-six year old disabled French tourist. It is understandable that Kenya would seek to protect its tourist industry, which has seen its revenues grow by one-third to US$737 million since the post-election violence of 2008. Moreover, the specific threat to Westerners is concerning since they make up the overwhelming majority of tourists who vist Kenya. However, Mutua has since admitted that the kidnapping rationale was actually a “good launchpad,” and that plans for the invasion had “been in the pipeline for a while.” Another anonymous senior Kenyan official added: “This isn’t about tourism. This is about our long-term development plan. Kenya cannot achieve economically what it wants with the situation the way it is in Somalia.” What is the likelihood of successfully achieving the intended objectives? The strength of al-Shabaab militants, who are suspected of kidnapping Western tourists, ranges from 3,000 to an unbelievably specific 14,426. In August, al-Shabaab withdrew from Mogadishu to avoid direct combat with the 8,000 AMISOM troops stationed there. Since then, al-Shabaab has re-focused its insurgent activities against the Transitional Federal Government and international aid agencies to the west and south of the capital. The UN Secretary General’s latest report on Somalia noted that al-Shabaab “maintained a significant presence in the [Gedo and Juba] regions” of southern Somalia bordering Kenya. The report also correctly predicted that “al-Shabaab’s use of terrorist tactics and asymmetric warfare is likely to increase.” Within less than two weeks of fighting, approximately 1,500 Kenyan troops backed by tanks and helicopter gunships--with the support of some Somali militias--have captured Shabaab-controlled towns and forced the insurgents to temporarily disperse. However, due to heavy seasonal rains, the logistical support required to sustain and advance Kenyan troops has become overwhelmed. Given the relatively modest commitment of forces, as well as the stated opposition to the invasion by the internationally-recognised Somali President, Sharif Sheik Ahmed, it is inconceivable that Kenyan forces will permanently “clear out” al-Shabaab, much less prevent their return. What support is Kenya receiving from the United States? Initially, many believed that Kenya coordinated its invasion with the Pentagon, in a similar fashion as Ethiopia in December 2006, when the United States provided detailed intelligence, military training, and naval support. This perception was further reinforced when the U.S. ambassador to Kenya, Scott Gration, told the Financial Times: “We are looking to see how, as an ally in this conflict on terrorism, can we help the Kenyans.” However, several U.S. officials have explicitly denied coordination with the Kenyan military or any contribution of direct military support. An unnamed senior U.S. official noted the absence of “U.S. military strikes in Somalia at all recently.” The State Department clarified the official U.S. position on October 25, stating: “The United States is not participating in Kenya’s current operation in Somalia.” Over the past three decades of civil war in Somalia, the international community has been consistently allured by the use of military force to “solve” the myriad problems related to humanitarianism, piracy, terrorism, and--most recently--tourism. Although all attempts thus far have failed, it hasn’t prevented the idea from resurfacing. In late 2008, the Bush administration debated using naval cruise missiles and drone strikes against on-shore bases in Somalia with the intended objective of ending the persistent problem of piracy. When asked his opinion of such options, Vice Admiral William Gortney, then-commander of the U.S. 5th Fleet, warned: “I see people trying to look for an easy military solution to a problem that demands a non-kinetic solution.” When assessing Kenyan objectives in Somalia, history repeats itself. Micah Zenko is a Fellow in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Between Threats and War: U.S. Discrete Military Operations in the Post-Cold War World. http://www.cfr.org/kenya/s-wrong-kenyas-invasion-somalia/p26517 From a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank that greatly influences American foreign policy.

ole-maasai;758980 wrote: I was just curious on how good the pastureland are around the Jubba area. I cant wait to be handed a couple of thousand acres in the form of ranch for for my exotic Maasai cattle. LOL

The comparison to Afghanistan is invalid on many grounds. For one we are talking about the biggest invasion of this decade, with the backing of the most powerful armies in the world. The Taliban were toppled in all of its territory, and the amount of the money the Americans and NATO have invested in Afghanistan cannot even be close to compared to what they have spent in Somalia. There is 133,000 plus of the most well trained troops the planet has to offer in Afghanistan, along with over 150,000 Afghan govt soldiers all trained and equipped directly by the United States. The funds/logistics invested in Afghanistan cannot be compared to Somalia. Despite all this, Afghanistan is in an extremely tenuous situation, and there version of AS has hardly been defeated. In fact its gotten to the stage the Americans have almost conceded the Taliban will return following a withdrawal and are attempting to negotiate with those willing. There is also the issue of its relatively powerful neighbors who have direct leverage on the political process in Afghanistan. Karzai is hardly speaking independently as much as he is trying to find a common ground among these interests. If Karzai is your template for how a transitional leader should operate, I hope you pay attention to what happens to Afghanistan within these coming years. The harsh truth is much closer to what Che has posited. Sharif or no Sharif, the results would be the same. As is the case with the revolving door PM position.

The Americans do not fully support the invasion at all. This is not to say the Americans are a benevolent power but the facts speak for themselves. Do you recall Ethiopia going on a world tour begging for support/funds when it entered Somalia in 2007? If it was a fully American supported incursion at the very least, the Kenyans would not have to asked half the world to foot the bill for it publicly. Its clear from the latest developments that the Kenyans have acted almost unilaterally here.I'm sure the Americans will share intelligence with them and help them where they can, but they share the same apprehensions they did in 2010. BTW there are columnists, and academics who write on State Dep/Pentagon affairs with close links with them, that have stated the same. Both publicly and anonymously the refrain has been the same. Contrary to popular belief, there is no such thing as secret conspiracies. If they were behind this it would come out one way or another, as have its drone campaigns and its previous incursions.

Yes indeed Im not surprised and the kids have nothing to be ashamed of all things considered.

5

4-0

Inshallah we get our miracle lol. As already stated they are up against very big odds in an away ground that has got positive results against strong teams. Likely will be a loss but who knows. What time is the game exactly and if you find a stream please post it.

Long ago declined global power, yearning for some relevance. This won't do it

Mintid Farayar;758674 wrote: Who are the actors on the periphery you're referring to? Gandhi and Madowe? My point is the main issue should be whether the Kenyan incursion will succeed in the first place. In a lot of these discussions, its almost assumed that it will when in reality nothing has supported such confidence. While these are all potential fault lines if the incursion does succeed, its clearly jumping the gun in the real story here.

A bunch of wasted energy, on irrelevant local politics that doesn't guide or even decide any major strategies. These guys are actors on the periphery anyway you cut it. Question a) is clear and simple and its whether the Kenyan incursion will work in the first place? Nothing at all has shown why it will.

Qandalawi is right, people need to stop the hyperbole, this doesn't mean the IDF is invading Kismayo lol. The Kenyans are desperate for funds, as its become clearly apparent their incursion was very ill planned, and the Israels are desperate for any allies in the international community considering it has very little outside of the West. In exchange of helping Kenya here, they would expect them at least in theory, to fall in line with them when Israeli issues are put to the international community and to act as an example of how Israel can have positive relations with states in the Global South. This all falls in line with Israeli PR in the international sphere, something Israel is VERY sensitive about. Just look at how they have convinced states to abstain or vote against the Palestinian state initiative in the UN to understand why its cultivating such relationships. This being said, it is incredibly dumb from a PR and propaganda perspective from the Kenyans. Its such ineptitude that shows why incursion will not work, especially with a state as ill equipped as Kenya. Out of all people in the world it could've secured funds/training from, to publicly announce collaboration with Israel is like a propaganda coup for AS. They're not only way behind in the technical aspects of the incursion, they're also clueless on the PR front. People were rationalizing their incursion with the idea they could possibly pacify and defeat alShabaab. I have no idea how you can continue to hold on to such lofty goals seeing Kenya's performance thus far.

Israel has offered to help Kenya secure its borders as it tackles Somalia's Islamist group, al-Shabab, the Kenyan prime minister's office has said. It said Kenya got the backing of Israel to "rid its territory of fundamentalist elements" during Prime Minister Raila Odinga's visit to the country. Last month, Kenya sent troops to neighbouring Somalia to defeat al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaeda. It blames the militants for a spate of abductions on its side of the border. In a statement, Mr Odinga's office quotes Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as saying that "Kenya's enemies are Israel's enemies". "We have similar forces planning to bring us down," he is is quoted as saying. "I see it as an opportunity to strengthen ties." At least 15 people were killed in a suicide bombing on an Israeli-owned hotel in the Kenyan coastal resort of Mombasa in 2002. Four years earlier, more than 200 people were killed in co-ordinated bomb blasts on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Al-Qaeda carried out the attacks, with some of its senior members operating from Somalia. 'Regional coalition' Mr Odinga - who is accompanied on the visit by Internal Security Minister George Saitoti - said Israel could help Kenya's police force detect and destroy al-Shabab's networks in Kenya. Continue reading the main story “ Start Quote Consistently, Kenya has shown a very positive attitude towards Israel and Israel is ready to help” Shimon Peres Israel's president Kenya also needed Israel to provide vehicles for border patrols and equipment for sea surveillance to curb piracy off the East African coast, he said. "We need to be able to convincingly ensure homeland security," Mr Odinga said. The statement quoted Mr Netanyahu as promising to help build a "coalition against fundamentalism" in East Africa, incorporating Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Tanzania. Israel's President Shimon Peres had promised to "make everything available" to Kenya to guarantee its security within its borders, the statement said. "Consistently, Kenya has shown a very positive attitude towards Israel and Israel is ready to help," the statement quotes Mr Peres saying. Kenya accuses al-Shabab of abducting several people from its territory since September - including an elderly French woman who suffered from cancer. French authorities say she has since died in Somalia. Al-Shabab denies involvement in the abductions and has vowed to retaliate against Kenya for sending troops into Somalia. It has accused the Kenyan army of killing civilians. Last month, a Kenyan man, Elgiva Bwire Oliacha, told a court in Nairobi that he was an al-Shabab member. He pleaded guilty to carrying out grenade attacks on a nightclub and bus stop in the city, leaving one person dead and 29 others wounded. Somalia has been without an effective government since 1991, with al-Shabab controlling most of the southern and central regions. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15725632 My goodness, its like they want to create propaganda for AS lol.

Abtigiis;757782 wrote: Waryaa waxaa iskada oo warn the boys about the altitude please (ciddi gaadhsiin kartaa ha gaadhsiiso). And I suggest the following tactics to deal with this problem: 1) in the first half, they may not feel much of it, but they should not run too much unbeknown to them. They should conserve engery as much as possible. Wasting time, feigning injury, individuals keeping the ball, should do. Also defend in numbers in the first 20 minutes. 2) Use deadballs and corners to attack 3) Second half: bring in three versatile players in defence and midfield. At about 60 hour mark when the team beings to tire. This is my suggestion, and who knows they may have a chance. Even if they lose, it is ok as long as it is not an embarassingly scoreline. How good is the Ethiopian who got sent off? They should park the bus and hope for a draw. Return leg is Wednesday that is too soon, to get acclimated to the altitude.