If it is realistic, how come the analysis has only the factions and their likely actions/views in it? I have not seen one mentioning of what the people in Somali regions want. For example, most importantly, Mogadishu city. This is not a game of chess where you only have the factions...eventually the faction that wins the support of the people will come out of victorious. The resistance movement won because the Somali people saw them as the morally right side to support and identified the Ethiopians and the TFG as the immoral side which is the evil.

Originally posted by [Waranle]: Come on guys!!!!!! According to many people, Kismayo is relatively peaceful (save the PR blunders of those in charge; demolishing of graves, the killing of a warlord, "stoning" "banning qaad"; ). Why should the people of Kismayo welcome a parliament that has subjected them to 17 years of death and destruction? Why should they welcome a 4,5 system when they have their own system that has ensured the return of peace? Bro, Honestly, is restoration of peace your yardstick for progress? Kismaanyo was peacefull under the rule of warlord Hiiraale, despite injustices been commited. All major conflicts over the control of the city happened outside of the city, so technically Kismaanyo city itself and its inhabitants lived in relative peace and stability (9 years of warlord rule and administration).

We all know the famous line of: ''Somalia ma ahan dal aduunka loogaga duulo ee waa dal ay ku ku nool yihiin dad masaakiin'' You can replace Somalia by any other Islamic country which all have propagated that line. Now can we apply the same line and reasoning to inter-Somalia affaires? For example, the muslim countries that have taken that position did not want for their countries to be engulfed by the global conflict between US and what they consider as ''jihadist groups'' or ''Extremist Islamists''. Now can Somali regions take that same kind of political line and argument in the current politics of Alshabaab vs Asmara faction vs TFG vs Ethiopia etc. Why should we allow our regions to be used as arena's were these opposing forces wrestle and as such our regions and people suffer? Why should we allow ourselves to become sitting ducks and simple spectators of this game between opposing factions that all fight for different things and claim to be ''the one'' the ''pure'' etc. Why should we waste time in this game that is obviously between other factions backed by other powers, while our own regions are underdeveloped our own people face constant conflict and insecurity and as such have become hopless, while forgetting that it is the power of masses that uproots every society. As such I would say: Gobolkeena ma ahan gobol kooxo loogaga duulo ee waa gobol ay ku ku nool yihiin dad masaakiin

HornAfrique, Isn't it time for Southern regions and Somali people to be freed from the grip of opposing forces? What interest do the people have in wars that are been waged on their back by different forces? Back then, the opposing forces were warlords, now they are war-wadaado. We should worry more about local administration that is built by the people, and as such operates for the interest of the people.

Nor Sh.Shariif nor SH.Yacuub is in the interest of the people of Kismaanyo. Both sheikhs are fighting their own war, and as such Kismaanyo and Somalia are the playing field, and the people the sitting ducks between these opposing forces. I honestly dont see any difference between the individual-oriented and ill-defined agenda's politics during the warlord era and the current politics. Back then it was ''chairmain of Jabhad'' or ''selfstyled governor of a city/region'' opposes the action of ''hebel this or that''. It is truelly tragic for Somali masses to find themselves in such an undesirable position. Let us hope that the people of Kismaanyo, and in general the Somali people, will be freed from the grip of the competing forces, and will stipulate their own future, and take responsibility for their own lives and society.

Somali Pirate, I believe there are more things we can agree on, if we only cleared out the misunderstanding between us. The same applies to all Somalis.

We all know that the slogan of Islamic factions is: ''Islamic Law for the Somali land and the Somali people''? ''Ku Dhaqanka Shareecada Islaamiga'' It is time they start to practice what they preach. They should set an example, and let the Quran and the Sunnah of our prophet (PBUH) settle their differences. There should be a council of respected religious men (Culama) who are known for their knowledge of the Quran and the Sunnah of our prophet (PBUH) who will settle the Islamic factions differences and disagreements based on what the Quran and the Sunnah of our prophet (PBUH) says. It is time these Islamic factions prove that they are different then the usual warlords and power-hungry thugs. We are tired of their nac-nac and constant squabblings on the radio and newspaper. Let the council of Culama settle their differences.

Originally posted by Somali Pirate: meji, that was a quote by nabi isa in the bible when he promised a prophet will come after him. That was prophet muhammed. secondly, puntland and somaliland have always been peaceful. The problem is xamaar. overun by warlords, tribal militas and thugs. I remember when the cia was supporting warlords in 2006 until the icu finished them. Xaamar needs to be pacified before somalia can rise. Our enemies don't care about somliland or puntland. The brain of the country lies in xamaar. which is why they want the fighting to go on. al shabab has born out of the people's tiredness at occupation and warlordsim. alhamdullilah after 2 years of struggle the eithios and their proxies are vanishing. You refuse to give credit for what al shabab has done in kismayo. peace stability and a check on capitalism. We can built an economy when the country is unified. to unify it there has to be peace first. finally just because i support al shabab does not mean i agree with every single actions. they should not spare warlords and traitors whether they are in baidoa or any other place Bro, With all respect, I do not see the relevance of that quote for the subject matter. -- As for Mogadishu, like the other regions have established local administration and brought back stability and peace, so shall the people of Mogadishu. The Islamic factions can participate in this struggle to bring back peace and stability, but TOGETHER with the other segments of society: traditional leaders, intellectuals, professionals, civil society leaders, different religious schools, students etc etc. The people should always play a critical role in improving their living condition. Can we agree on that principle?

Abwaan, well answered. Sh.Shariif was not just released, no the ICU fighters in Jubboyinka had captured American special troops, and it was an exchange. Sh.Shariif for the captured American soldiers. What would the world think if those American soldiers were brought in front of camera ala 1993?

''Waxa uu maamulka Maxamed Dheere uu u noqday hogaamiyaha maxkamada gobolka, isagoona muddo kadib lasoo eryay waxana uu yimid magalada Muqdisho u noqday macalin wax ka dhiga iskool lagu yirahdo Jubba Secondary School.'' The reason why Sh.Shariif was expelled from Jowhar city was because he, as the chairman of the Islamic court of Jowhar, challenged the authority of the warlord, and wanted to prosecute militia men loyal to M.dheere after they commited a crime against a poor farmer who then complained to the Islamic Court. M.dheere could not arrest nor execute Sh.Shariif because of his high profile and clan background and as such forced him to leave the city.

Mr.Red Sea, Baidoba is just a week under the rule of Alshabaab. Before then and also before the Ethiopian occupation the city was peacefull under local groups. Baidoba should be ruled by the people who live in that city, by the local groups. This principle applies to every region in Somalia.

Funny development

Nr 1: Sh.Shariif 201 Nr 2: Nur Adde 52 Nr 3: Maslax

X

Sh.Shariif seems to be winning.

Oke we are getting somewhere, You quoted Nabi Isa, which sura? --- There is peace and stability in Puntland/Somaliland/Ceeldheer/Baidoba/Jowhar/Beled weyne etc etc All places were there is no Alshabaab. So clearly bringing peace and stability is not the hallmark of Alshabaab. About the dumping of food, that has been happening for a quite few years. The best way to prevent Capitalists to derail our economy is to build institutions, to build a functioning economy, and to build our nation. Locking up food is just a way to tackle the problem on short term, but is not a durable solution. The injustice that happened to your cousin, that is truelly tragic. But while the man who has the blood of your cousin on his hands walks freely in other regions, we have people (Xaabsade and other warlords/traitors) who Alshabaab let go, that still walk freely in Somalia. Is that justice? According to some, cafis is a form of justice.

Oke Somali Pirate, We will now test your views. One you claimed they are free from clan ideology, that their goal is one unified somalian under sharia and that they have resorted to tackling the consumption of the drug that crippled our society...my question to you is: ''What makes them different then those groups in the past that had the same image and goal?'' SYL is a known Pan-Somali movement, composed of young, ambitious, determined Somalis, that was free from clan ideology, fought for the re-unification of Somali lands and propagated that they wanted to develop an independent nation. As you are aware of SYL was infiltrated by clannism, and as such descended into corruption/nepotism and clannism. Then, we had the military coup in which a military regime came to power that was supposedly free from clan ideology, had the goal of reunifying Somali lands and wanted to tackle qat consumption and develop the nation. As you are aware of the military regime was crippled by clannism/nepotism/corruption at the end. Again, dont be simplistic and tell us why you believe that Alshabaab is the real deal, and how they will succeed in where others have failed. Please, go ahead and help us in understanding your support.

Somali Pirate, No disrespect to you brother, but in my eyes you and Nabad-Nabad are the same but on different sides. While he is anti-alshabaab and uses cheap propaganda without any comprehensive reasoning behind it, you are pro-alshabaab and use cheap propaganda without any comprehensive reasoning. You both use simple rethorics, its time you two should talk honestly to each other. Talk to each other, and explain each other your different point of views, be honest and lisen to each other. Dont be engaged in a tit-for-tat discussion.

Originally posted by Abu_Diaby- Al Zeylaci: Lastly, your references to civil society and the consent to govern is far from the reality in Somalia. Since when did anybody need the consent to govern in Somalia over the last 20 years. Doesn't the toughest group always rule and then lay down the rules of the game to ruled? That exactly is the problem my dear friend. Because of ''the thoughest group ruling and laying down their rules of the game' we have witnessed 20 years of misery. That is also why there will be no long-term solution but short-term waves in which factions defeat each other, set up their administration and wait till they are defeated by another faction. The cycle of ''''the thoughest group ruling and laying down their rules of the game''and the result is: 20 years of misery. The only way to break that tragic vicious cicle is to make the people aware of their situation and the possible actions they can take. Hence why I admire the brave and progressive stance by the people of Caabudwaaq, and hence why I advice others to think about their own well-beign, think about the collective interest, and forget the different factions fighting for political power.

Elections of candidates not elected by the Somali people as their representatives, which happens in Jabuti is not much different then the previous ''elections''. All hype no tangible change or progress. Let us not waste our time with such hype and let us discuss our affaires. For example, What do we expect from those who will soon enough call themselves ''government of Somalia''? How will we hold them accountable for their actions? What mandate do they have? What legitimacy do they have? Let us be assertive and put forward our demands instead of been simple spectators of a big show.

Clan elders have their own responsibilities and function in society. They work towards the preservation of the clan, and how they perceive what is in the best interest of the clan. As I said : ''The people of Caabudwaaq, their intellectuals, religious leaders, elders, professionals, women, young students, in short: civil society, should decide how their region is governed, and should defend themselves against all the above mentioned factions.'' All the different segments of society need to consult with each other and jointly agree on certain policies for the region. Each segment has its own point of view and its own function and responsibility within society, together all the segments are the society. Consultation is a prerequisite for collective action. This is what the people of Caabudwaaq have shown, and this is what makes them progressive.

Bro, First give your view concerning the topic, and support it with arguments. For example, What do you think of the subject matter? What do you think of the main argument in this topic? Do you agree that the islamic groups are behaving more like the other groups (i.e warlords) Share with us your thoughts, and let us enrich our own understanding of Somalia and what is going on by exchanging points of views.

The people of Caabudwaaq have truelly taken progressive steps which is not only in their interest but in the interest of Somalia. They have denounced all factions, no matter the political color. Alshabaab, Ahlu Sunna, Warlord, Ethiopian puppets, all are the same and are not allowed to fight their struggle on the back of the people and govern the region/city. The people of Caabudwaaq, their intellectuals, religious leaders, elders, professionals, women, young students, in short: civil society, should decide how their region is governed, and should defend themselves against all the above mentioned factions. Lets hope more Southern regions will take this progressive stance.

Wax garadka iyo Odayaasha degmada Cabudwaaq ee gobolka Galgaduud ayaa maanta waxaa ay ka soo hor jeesteen in dhaq dhaqaaqyada isdiidan ee ka jira gobolka Galgaduud ay ka taliyaan degmadaasi. Kulan maalmihii u dambeeyay ay lahaayeen odayaasha dhaqanka iyo wax garadka Beelaha Sede ee daga gobolka Galgaduud ayaa maanta waxaa ay si buuxda u sheegeen in aysan lug ku laheeyn siyaasadaha is diidan ee ka jira guud ahaan gobolada iyo degmooyinka Dalka Soomaaliya. Odayaasha ayaa waxaa ay sheegeen in ay taageersanyihiin wax waliba oo horseedi kara nabad ka dhacda dalka Soomaaliya iyagoo sheegay in ay soo dhaweynayaan wax kasta oo xal u keenya Soomaaliya. Hadalkaani ayay waxa ay ka sheegeen xili maanta ay isugu yimaadeen kulan lagu xalinayo colaado hoose oo ka dhex taagnaa in mudo ah beelaha wada daga degmadaasi Caabudwaaq,waxaana ay meesha ka saareen in la taageero kooxaha isdiidan in ay la wareegaan gacan ku heynta degmada Cabuwaaq iyo in laga hor tago kooxaha burcad ah ee dhibka ku haya gaadiidka safarka ah. Hadalka ka soo yeeray maanta salaadiinta iyo wax garadk Beesha Sede ayaa amaaniya xili mudooyinkii u dambaysay degmada Cabudwaaq iyo deegaano kale oo ka tirsan gobolka Gedo uu ka taagnaa loolan u dhaxeeya xoogaga wax iska caabinta kuwasi oo ku tartamaya qabsashada deegaanada gobolka Galgaduud. Aqriso oo la soco Shabelle.net Saacad Walba si aad u hesho wararkii ugu dambeeyay ee Soomaaliya. Dhageeyso Wararka 1:30-duhurnimo Maalin waliba adigoo raacaya tilmaamaha Wabseydka.

The Islamic administration in Jowhar-Middle Shabelle seized power through the gun. They defeated the previous administration of warlord M.dheere, and replaced it with their Islamic administration. This Islamic administration exhibits the same structure and modus operandi of the previous secular (warlord) administrations. Few characteristics: -A close unit of individuals that share ideals with their own private militia take control over strategic points of the city. -They try to appease different segments of the society in accepting their rule -They establish relative stability and sense of authority in the city by the barrel of the gun. - After been in control for a quite time, they start to organize a governing body for the city, which they have created and is composed of their men with no prior consultation or involvement of the society it is ment to govern. - They announce the creation of the local administration through radio and other media, and expect the people will support it, voluntarily prefered, if not by the gun. - Then they resort to ''taxation'' (extortion) by sheer force. --------------- Why should the people of Jowhar pay taxes while they have NO political representation? The Islamic group that has set up their islamic administration did not consult with the people, did not explain to the people their agenda, and want to extort the people from their money to finance the existence of their administration? What makes them any different then the previous warlord administration?