the guurti passed the same law the wadani party wanted it isnt kulmiye fault wadani wanted this sort of elections 20 percent u cant blame it on kulmiye for appeasing wadani the biggest oppostion party , so what do u want kulmiye to do

well its in biixis interest the awdal clan and kulmiye are on the same side they want the 3 parties with the most votes can be the winners or be the new national partys where as wadani want the 20 percentage from each region to become the winner ucid kulmiye and hilaac are on the same side

Thé conflict of the airspace willl continue until the ic and icao intervenes and find a solution sl will show that bunker is not competent to control the airspace this is all good

Djibouti and Ethiopia-Somaliland’s Memorandum of Understandingby Qaran News | Feb 16, 2024 Djibouti and Ethiopia-Somaliland’s Memorandum of Understanding The year 2024 began with a political shakeup in the Horn of Africa when on January 1, Ethiopia and Somaliland revealed the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Somaliland, previously British Somalia, is formally part of Somalia, from which it unilaterally seceded after the collapse of the Siad Barre regime. The territory has been self-governing since 1991 and is considered a de facto state. Nevertheless, it still lacks any legal recognition. The agreement thus set the stage for possible Ethiopian access to the Red Sea via Somaliland and for Addis Ababa’s legal recognition of the Hargeisa government. The announcement, however, immediately raised concerns among all regional actors. Many doubts remain about the future steps involving the MoU, and it is not even certain that the terms of the agreement will be implemented. Notwithstanding, the announcement was enough to further shake the Red Sea region, which is already plagued by deep rifts and crises. The present analysis focuses on how the MoU announcement has affected the state of Djibouti. While the presence of several military bases seems to ensure the stability of the small African country, the MoU has intensified the dynamics within the power circle of Djibouti President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. After the Eritrean War of Independence in the early 1990s, Ethiopia lost its Red Sea ports and is now the most populous landlocked state in the world. Since 1998, Djibouti’s ports have handled 95 percent of the trade to and from Ethiopia. Access to the Djibouti port has cost Addis Ababa between $1.5 and $2 billion, a cost that Ethiopia considers excessive. Hence, there is a need to find a viable alternative. Apart from Djibouti, only Eritrea and Somalia are the remaining options. Since August, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has increased his claims for Red Sea access, emphasizing in many public speeches that this is critical to the country’s developmental path. These statements alarmed Eritrea in particular and caused the relationship between Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isais Afewerki to cool rapidly after a brief initial honeymoon. Although fears of a new Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict were on the rise, the MoU now seems to have temporarily eased tensions. Reports indicate that Hargeisa is allowing Ethiopia access to the port of Berbera. In addition, Somaliland is granting Addis Ababa an area on the Gulf of Aden for military use. In return, Ethiopia would have to consider recognizing Somaliland and divesting shares of one of its public assets, such as Ethiopian Airlines. Ethiopia’s ability to access the Red Sea through Berbera would provide an alternative to Djiboutian ports. However, the Berbera option is not new, for the Ethiopian government previously committed itself to buying a 19 percent stake in the commercial port. Nevertheless, the conflict in Tigray diverted Addis Ababa’s resources to complete the acquisition. With the MoU signature, the access of Ethiopian goods to Berbera once again becomes potentially viable. In addition to the many political setbacks for any recognition of Somaliland, however, Ethiopian plans also face an economic hurdle, in addition to the many political setbacks to the recognition of Somaliland. No funds are available for the construction and development of an Addis Ababa-Berbera corridor. It is difficult for Ethiopia and Somaliland to find foreign investors, apart from possibly the UAE, which would be interested in expanding commercial traffic out of Berbera, a port operated by DP World. Despite many doubts about implementing the agreement, the MoU has created a ripple effect in the region. Djibouti was caught off guard by the agreement, for its economy would be the one most negatively affected in the region. Besides losing Ethiopian annual fees, Djibouti would see commercial transit plummet. Port revenues, along with foreign military bases, are the country’s primary source of income. Therefore, the impact on Djibouti could exacerbate discontent and divisions within its society. Malaise would be particularly acute among the Afar community, whose members have been marginalized for years by the ruling Somali majority. The international actors’ interest in securing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is insurance for Djibouti, meaning that none of its stakeholders have an interest in seeing the country dragged into instability, especially in the light of Houthi attacks. Furthermore, revenue from the ports has political value in that it feeds the patronage relationships that the president has built up over the years. Therefore, a decrease in earnings would affect the loyalties built up by Guelleh and further inflame internal power struggles over his succession. The announcement of the MoU has already had a political impact. Guelleh faced a severe blow to his political credibility when the MoU was signed just a couple of weeks after he had promoted a major diplomatic initiative. Guelleh had hosted a meeting between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Somaliland President Muse Bihi with the ambitious goal of reviving the dialogue between Mogadishu and Hargeisa. The MoU, however, halted any further development of the initiative. This failure has shown how Guelleh’s ability to read the region’s politics is gradually fading. This is not an insignificant trend for a leader who has consolidated his regime on two pillars: diversifying political relations with extra-regional players and engaging in the role of broker in regional affairs. Guelleh seems to have reached the end of his political path. The president, in office since 1999, was elected in 2021 for his fifth term, scheduled to end in 2026. However, there are many doubts about the 76-year-old president’s health. The announcement of the MoU has added fuel to the many rumors about his succession and has, in particular, accelerated the maneuvering within his power circle. For several months, a virtual game of thrones has been going on within political and economic power structures. In an undemocratic and over-centralized context, alliances and political convergences are forming in preparation for the post-Guelleh era. Within the president’s inner circle, various factions align along paths defined by a mix of power dynamics, family connections, and ethnic or clan loyalties. Following this logic, two factions have emerged. The first power bloc revolves around the influential figure of Guelleh’s wife, Kadra Mahamoud Haid, who has, since 1999, gradually gained centrality in the decision-making process. The first lady exerts her influence on Djiboutian political affairs primarily through a network of formal and informal ties based on clan affiliation. She is an ethnic Somali but belongs to one of the minority clans of the Isaaq. The most powerful Somali clan, the Issa, to which Guelleh belongs, has regularly marginalized the Isaaq in Djibouti, while the first lady’s weight of influence has facilitated the promotion of Isaaq figures to top positions within the state apparatus. Kadra Haid’s actions are aimed at preparing for the rise of her son from her previous relationship, Naguib Abdallah Kamil. He is the current secretary to Prime Minister Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed, who is an ethnic Afar, as is Naguib’s father. Therefore, Kadra Haid is strengthening the Afar-Isaaq alliance to consolidate Naguib’s position as an eventual successor to Guelleh. The second faction consists of the Somali Issa and especially members of the president’s sub-clan, the Massamans. Among the leading Massaman proponents are prominent figures in the state apparatus, including Interior Minister Said Nouh Hassan, Intelligence Chief Hassan Said Khaireh, and Republican Guard Commander Colonel Mohamed Djama Doualeh. They view the First Lady’s moves and the recent MoU with suspicion. Indeed, the first power bloc has strong identity affinities and ties with Somaliland and Ethiopia. Therefore, they fear an imminent reversal of the country’s inter-clan power relations supported by extra-regional actors. The Massaman group, on the other hand, has forged a connection with the youngest daughter of the presidential couple, Haibado Ismail Omar, who is Guelleh’s financial advisor. Haibado has consolidated ties with the Dir clan, a prominent Somali group that includes the Issa. In addition, her marriage to Sadak Omar Mohamed, aka Sadak John, cemented her direct ties to Mogadishu. Haibado’s financial power, the Dir support, and the influence of Massaman members within the country’s security apparatus provide a credible alternative to Kadra Haid’s plans. Thus, within President Guelleh’s circle of power, two factions are forming that are ready to clash politically over his succession. The danger is that rivalries within power circles will overlap with regional ones. On the one hand, Naguib enjoys the support of the Afar and Isaaq clans and seems oblivious to Addis Ababa and Hargeisa. On the other hand, Haibado moves to increase Somali support for her cause. While no signs of external interference exist in this contest, regional and extra-regional actors are looking for a horse to back. Therefore, the MoU and a possible escalation of tensions between Mogadishu and Hargeisa could profoundly impact the power struggles within the Djibouti regime. The MoU has put the issue of Somaliland recognition back on the table, regardless of the next concrete steps. This means that the United States and other extra-regional actors cannot ignore the situation. However, a fundamental flaw prevents international actors from taking an innovative approach to the matter. Most of them believe that there is a strong link between the success of Somalia’s state-building process and its territorial integrity, a narrative fed directly by Mogadishu’s political elite. Supporting this belief is creating tensions within Somaliland itself, as evidenced by those in Las Anod. In reality, the state-building process and territorial integrity are separate. The presence of a large number of Somalis in different regional states implies that the Somaliland issue should be addressed from a regional perspective, but to do so would be to call into question one of the key principles of the African Union. For this reason, international policymakers are called upon to tread wisely, seeking a balance between Somaliland’s demands and the need to avoid dealing a blow to the continental normative architecture. __________________________________ Orion Policy Institute (OPI) is an independent, non-profit, tax-exempt think tank focusing on a broad range of issues at the local, national, and global levels. OPI does not take institutional policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions represented herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of OPI. Federico Donelli Assistant Professor, University of Trieste Orionpolicy.org

i never knew this keyse fellow became a traitor and went to the bunker in 2017 and worked with the cheese fellow. when asked about why did he go maxa kugu kalifay inad tagtiid he said it isnt relevant wa ku jawaabi kari wayey. dameer foqal dameer weye keyssanihi waan u han weyna walahi bergi hore berigi wasir ah dawladi daahir rayaale oo uu is yidhi siilaanyo hargeisa ka celi

i doubt farmaajo would give his presidency to Somaliland or give the capital i doubt it really , walamweyns love power

The unity of the Somali republic or the former Somali republic is solely in the hands of Somaliland . if they say the country remains united it will remain united. The independence and quest for statehood how ever is partially in the hands of Somalia or the bunker since they can bless it but even if they dont bless it there are other channels to achieve it.

ina Rayaale is going to be part of a committee ina bixii is establishing , you heard it from me first. He also held talks with the ugaas abdirashid the ugaas of the Awdal clan in Ethiopia who is opposed to The Somaliland MOU deal with SL , not sure if there was any break through in the talks, people are saying the young ugaas couldnt be convinced to come to Somaliland and sit with his kin and talk about the issues.. The ugaas and ina rayaale are very close the two belong to the same sub sub clan of the Borama clan.

No legal right why not Somaliland is the successor state of The state of Somaliland which united with Somalia to form the Somali republic , Was Somalia part of Somaliland or Somaliland part of Somalia, or were they two equal entitities choose to unite on bad faith . Just because the west or the state department recognised Somalia as the sole goverment of Somaliland , doesnt make it right or legal for that part. isnt it strange the so called SFG was formed in 2012. Somaliland was created in 1991. Somaliland has every foundation to challenge the Bunker. Che be honest for once didnt the Bunker govt agree to share the airspace with Somaliland in the 2014 agreement doesnt that mean anything. How can Somalia sign something with Somaliland and not honer it and all koonfurians say, good will hoog fariid halka ka hay si fiican baad qaldaaminti uu khiyaameyseen in the mean time first of july wala niikinay aka jubba wac wac weerejiyo Somalia wey is raacday. balaya idin raacda .

waxaasi wa baha baha maakhirow waxa lama dhegeysto SL has the right to protect its airspace from Bunker pirates claiming what is not theirs

april fools

well the era of Somaliweyn under one group or goverment that ship has sailed. The only way there can ever be a Somaliweyn or union of Somali republics is if there is equality and justice for all 5 equal not one above the other not one better then the other equality is the only way. The closest Somalis ever got or agreed on one thing was that at point the blue white star flag was a sort of ethnic Somali flag. Even that narrative has died in parts of the Somali peninsula in particular in Somaliland. Though some in Jabuuti might still subscibe to it. Now as for the NFD region kenyas north eastern and Somali kilil region this is even more complex the region is so divided after Abdi Ileey, though abtigiis has created some sort of harmony between the various communities and clans there. And as he stepped in in the whole sitte war with affar that has shown some sort of Solidarity between the 2 major clan groups in that region. How ever we still not there. Now the way it is precieved i am not sure how the Somalia government in the bunker now views these region what their so called constitution says about those regions . Though since Abiye Ahmed and Muse biixi signed the MOU hassan sheikh has been calling the border between Ethiopia and Somalia xuduuud beenaaad , something he never uttered before. So not sure maybe he is trying to find another angle there because he is now cornered by Abiye and Muse on one side he him self on the other side of of the equation. The only way for Somaliweyn ever to materialise and i will say it again have said it before is in a sort of a union they feel happy in the french the belgium the dutch the germans fought a brutal civil war but they understood that together they can be stronger which is fine Militarily Economically Financially Socially Geographically . Despite them killing each other butchering each other. If this was to happen and there could be a sort of union between Somalis. It has to be based on trust i am talking about not in our life time ofcourse but maybe in our grand childeren life time .it can be achieved. The Somali state Somalia and Somaliland existed for 30 years. They have been totally separated in over another 33 years and counting the Union that they enjoyed can be broken down in two two era the first part 1960 untill 1969 the honeymoon which was very good dawladi rayidka. Then came afweyne 1969 until 1979 those first years were about all right. After 1979 until 1991 The people of Somaliland were in war with the goverment of Somalia so of the 30 years The Somali republic existed only 19 years were about oke. the other 11 years there was a war. So this doesnt end well most likely . For Somalis to find a way for the future and to think for the Future. They need to cooperate on equality justice and respect equal respect for each other as Sovreign states not one side claiming to be superior or being an integral part of the other this doesnt work and cant work. And we have seen that it cant work. In order for a union to come ,first we need to take a few steps back the European union didnt came just because Germany or France or Britain tried to enforce the others to be under the other First yes The great German Reich was defeated but equally they saw that Germany first had to exist as Sovreignt equal nation and that east and west must unite be as one in order for the rest of the European countries to flourish. The sam way Djibouti Somalia and Somaliland can agree to live side by side and then talk about maxa ina mdiideye maxa isku diidayna can we create one currency maybe yes freedom of movement why not. Can we create a common parliament maxa diidaya hadanu is xaqdhoowrnay. can we create a joint Military union why not inago marka is xilqaamayna oo jaar ah oo walaalo ah oo is ogol oo is ximinayn oo is xumayneyn we can fight for Somali galbeed to be free from Ethiopia NFD TO BE free from Kenya they themselves to become Separate countries and then join the bigger family of cooperation i would have suggested maybe we can call it The UNION OF Somali Republics. U S R . no real borders maybe some political borders to manage it we can even create one passport hada la isla qaato,the sky is the limit how ever first thing first we need breathing space if fahan is ixtram is qadarin is ogalaansho mutual respect side by side no xad gudub no xumaan. One can only dream but we shall see if our grand childeren can do better indeed

lets see who has the upper hand , SL controls both of its main airports berbera airport and Hargeisa airport lets see how far the Bunker muruq can go .

so who is this von bottom guy where is he from is he a somali what does he do who hired him what is his angle i heard he is some paid nigerian fella. or is he just a somali pretending to be a lobby group in washington

Which minister u mean muumin seed he wasn’t arrested for speaking his mind he was arrested due to other things related to owning some farm land and a dispute there . It had nothing to do with that he is an ex minister of kulmiye Forbidden to dress blue where and when maybe u have never been to awdal easy on the social media hype . The only system reer awdal have is in Somaliland where they elected their representives This is not the case in the bunker

Well it s pretty much the only democracy in the Horn of Africa where one man one vote happens no other country in the Horn africa has done this not Eritrean not Ethiopia not jabuuti not the bunker

how are these people horgal when they were elected by the people of awdal one man one vote not the handpickked men and woman in the bunker

Thats never gonne happen the jesus clan and the borama clan have a conflict around allot of villages in the western part of Awdal

Defending Awdal from Mogadishu amazing lol

and what is that ambition no port in the horn of africa can compete with berbera well only the Djibouti port of doorale

I doubt the emaratis and the Ethiopians would accept this I doubt hassan can do that and force the emararis to accept this

That is the way forward dad is aan is rabin meel ma wadda jogi karan people refuse to remain honest about their goal post what they want to achieve besides Somalis were always separate chieftain before colonialism this whole centralised statehood is all new to us . We think of dawlanimada when ever our reer is in charge we use it to karbaash the enemy clan and the cycle continues and continues