This is the guy

Exit Eritrea: How Could it all End for Isaias Afewerki? Afewerki's grip on power in Eritirea is showing signs of weakness. But will we see a coup, cosmetic reforms or even an uprising? ARTICLE | 14 MARCH 2013 - 10:43AM | BY ANDY RYAN An anti-Afewerki march in the US. Photograph by Steve Rhodes. Ever since 1993, when Eritrea gained independence and the national assembly elected him president, Isaias Afewerki has ruled over the small East African nation. In these two decades, Afewerki has largely disregarded civil and political rights, jailing dissidents, neglecting to hold elections, banning opposition parties, and restricting freedom of movement. Regionally, Eritrea became diplomatically isolated after disputes with Ethiopia over access to ports erupted into bloody conflict between 1998 and 2000. Many Eritreans have had to rely on food aid, and thousands of ordinary Eritreans have fled, with many finding themselves at the mercy of human traffickers. According to the likes of Human Rights Watch, Afewerki has turned Eritrea into one of the world’s most repressive and isolated states. But after 20 years in power, recent events suggest the president may be losing his grip on power. The possibility that Afewerki will remain a president for life is starting to weaken, and speculation has begun on what end his regime will eventually face. Below are three possibilities for how it could all end. Countdown to a coup? A coup might be the regime's most likely end. Recent high-profile emigrations suggest that President Afewerki is losing the trust and respect of former loyalists. These include his Information Minister, two air force officers (making their escape on the president’s private jet), a leading eye surgeon, and a significant portion of the national football team. Though details remain hard to verify, there also seems to have been a failed coup, mutiny or military protest on 21 January from within the armed forces, laying bare Afewerki’s possibly weakening control of the military. Afewerki responded with a series of arrests, and will no doubt hope any further potential critics have now been imprisoned or been strongly dissuaded from taking action. However, it is possible that the 21 January events will act as a catalyst for attempts on power, with potential rebels now viewing the regime as vulnerable. Realistically, a coup led by genuine democratic reformers is difficult to imagine. Instead, the leaders would likely be long-standing members of the regime – probably from the pervasive military or security services. Few individuals are likely to expose themselves to the considerable risks involved in a coup attempt, only to then contest power at the ballot box. Yet even a new dictatorship would likely show greater pragmatism than the Afewerki regime. Considering the country's perilous economic situation, there would probably be some attempt to end the country's current international isolation. Implementing reform? The 16-year constitutional itch After 16 years of waiting, it is evident that President Afewerki has no desire to ever implement the 1997 constitution. He has consistently shown himself unwilling to tolerate any form of opposition, and it is almost inconceivable that he would permit the existence of legitimate opposition parties. The possibility of more limited reform rests on whether the mutiny and high-profile emigrations have had any psychological impact on the president. Following the lead of other dictators throughout history, he could seek to make limited democratic concessions in a bid to gain legitimacy. Yet his record overwhelming depicts him as a man who prefers to tighten his grip through force rather than cunning. His response is much more likely to be increased repression than pragmatic reform. Popular uprising: an Eritrean Spring? The probability of this scenario is the hardest to judge. Eritreans have long seen the Afewerki’s People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) exercise power with little restraint, and will be aware of the danger of engaging in open protest. Opposition groups within the country have been so harshly repressed that it is even hard to see where the necessary spark and organisation might come from. Yet the Arab Spring spectacularly displayed that well-entrenched regimes can be overwhelmed by popular uprisings. In recent weeks, posters have appeared in the capital of Asmara calling for street protests. This is an indication of an increasing willingness amongst some Eritreans to defy the regime, and suggests a belief that they may hold the power to end the country's woes. The most intriguing question is whether Afewerki would be able to rely on his security forces if confronted by a mass uprising. The loyalty of young conscripts could certainly not be relied upon so, ultimately, much would rest on the decisions of senior officials. They would be forced to judge whether they were protecting a healthy or dying regime – and act accordingly. Think Africa Press welcomes inquiries regarding the republication of its articles. If you would like to republish this or any other article for re-print, syndication or educational purposes, please contact:

Another bugland source, there are websites in Somaliland who are critical to the SL government like waaheen qarannews tv Somaliland europe and non of them are even reporting it and reporting news like this is not just for the opposition websites its for every one. Even the opposition websites dislike those who oppose the Somaliland independence cause and not even Hadhwanaagnews.com is reporting it Its not true my friend believe me. But just wait the Sultaan will speak in the next 24 hours audio tape i will post it here.

The news is false i've just been told Suldaan Maxammad will hold a press conference tomorrow.

Who's going to send siilaanyo to prison your amisom buddies:D

No one is talking about recognition but i would not exclude cooperating with Israel on many fields or any other state Morocco is very far away from Israel so is Kenya, yet they decide to cooperate with Israel because it will be beneficial for them. Just because a country is far away doesn't mean you cant have relations with it. Why do people gets so emotional when Israel is mentioned? Haatu dalkaaga Kiiniya iyo israiil have fantastic relations, maxaad dalalka kala ulaa yabaaysa? Ma pope fransis ,pope fransis nin xun maha hala dayo pope fransis.

He is from the gedo clan garbaharay

I think Somali population will increase to in the next decades but the problem is can we all populate the entire Somali galbeed dessert. can we stop the oromo expansion The oromos have lots of numbers but no quality at all, so thats not the issue the problem is they are trying to move into Somali territories. As for cooperating its very difficult right now with all the divisions all the distrust but there should be a turning point some how.

Because culusow cancelled the unconstitutional conference in Kismayo the Kikuyus are now facilitating the conference in Nairobi but its a low profile one the Kikuyus do not want to go against the Somali government. By the way the delegation is back in Kismayo , yet they didn't hold a press conference, i think waxbakama so bixin shirkaas hadi kale wanu maqli lahayn. The doollow shir was more important.

Its sad clanish people are ruining the good name of the school, that failed politician Ahmed hussein issa needs to be slapped in the face.

^^ Hows khatumo doing Abdul any progress yet liberating the land?

He was not on transit

Homunculus the Somaliland politicians in the 50s lobbied hard to win back the hawd and reserve area from Britain all the way to Ethiopia but it failed. They told the people we got independence while the people were expecting the hawd and reserve area. It was the main drive ofcourse the experiment ethno nationalism was also playing a role. But that was the main reason that's why the union was never really negotiated no one wanted to waste time. 3 years later we went to war with Ethiopia. Homunculus ask your self why the former Somali republic was so busy fighting Ethiopia 3 times, but it never fought with Kenya other than supporting the shifta war. You can ask any one ask siciid gees to if you wish. The thing that really united Somalia and Somaliland was getting back Somali galbeed. Somali republic didn't care if Djibouti joined or not. That cause was driving the union because the SL generation who lived at that time it was fresh in their minds the loss of the hawd and reserve area. When we lost the war against Ethiopia in 1977, and the Somalilanders started fighting against general siad bare , that was when the Somaliweyn cause was really ending. And when siad bare restored relations with ethiopia and recognized that Somali galbeed was no longer in dispute. I think around that time many Somalilanders started flirting even with in the SNM camp with re declaring Somaliland as an independent state as it happened in 1991. And thats how it went if you dont believe me ask around.

Waranle_Warrior;927334 wrote: Xx, we know you have kidnapped a man, move on, is there any other news you have as this is nothing more attention seeking stunt. No one kidnapped any one why go to a place where you not welcome??

Somaliland: Airport Security Detain the Official Spokesperson for Somali PM March 16, 2013 Somaliland security apparatus based at the Berbera international Airport have detained the official spokesperson of the Somalia Prime minister Mr. Abdi Farah Shirdoon as he disembarked a plane for a short rest last evening during a stopover Somalilandpress.com has learned. The Prime minister spokesperson whose name is Abdishakur was caught when he disembarked for a short rest after a plane bound for a Mogadishu made a routine stopover at the Berbera airport, but to his dismay airport authorities detained him after they were ordered so by the Somaliland immigration department. According to reliable sources the man is currently held under detention by security officials in unknown location in the port city of Berbera. The detained man employer Somali Prime minster Mr. Abdi Farah Shirdoon is well known for his distaste towards the people of Somaliland of whom many accuse been an obstacle to any future reconciliations between Somaliland and Somalia.

Dee anigu Popeka masabidi mayo isagu meesha iman ba wali, popeka aynu so dhaweyno oo shaqadisa horta ha bilaabo. Xal na waan u raadinaya hawla kale eh ay qabtaan qolyaha popeka ama vatikaanka.

Because there are only interests in the world no emotions nin walba dantisa ayuu eegenaya whether you are buddhist christian jew Muslim hindu. There is no permanent friend or permanent enemy.

Are you serious? Do you know how the sixties were President and Prime Minister from Somalia Speaker of Parliament from Somaliland 4 Ministers from Somaliland 11 ministers from Somalia Even that was unfair but we wanted the hawd and reserve back so we didn't care about political positions and seats the unity was more important our fathers thought the only way we could get back the hawd and reserve area my fathers generation if we unite with the Koonfurians. And could from a stronger block against haile selasie at that time. But since Somalia restored relations with Ethiopia in 1988 nothing binds Somaliland with Somalia any more. And it seems getting the hawd reserve area back became an unreachable goal. So Somaliland said good bye to Somalia.

Are these people whoring themselves to King hassan athani of makhrib

I have always noticed Somalilanders are very ahead in this field in the past and even in the 21 century. And even with the upcoming talents Maazim is one of the new talents Like Maazim Ahmed Awale works for the Somaliland national television Mr xuuto chief editor of the waaheen journal of Somaliland won the CNN african award Moha daahir farah jireh President of Journalists for African Renaissance (JAR) One of the old schools Abdisalaan hereri for the BBC and now for Universal TV Who can forget Ahmed hassan cawke another old school still working though Nimco samriye from HCTV raage omaar from the bbc and aljazeera And bushaaro ali bando first for universal TV and now for the Somaliland national television or Axmed siciid cige Eventhough i believe Somaliland journalists and journalism in Somaliland its self is very decent how ever there were problems in the past with the waheen editors and others. But it still seems that Somalilanders are very good at this field, especially when new talents are rising every year like Maazim.

There is no country in the world we would not have relations with we are no ones enemy we don't hate people because they are a certain ethnic group we are not racists. We don't discriminate because they follow a certain faith now tell me why should Somaliland dislike the Jewish state Israel is one of the best arms manufacturers in the world they are also very advanced in technology. I see good deals coming in the future. i see no major difference having relations with Israel America or China . And i dont get why are you keep talking about recognition the author didn't even mention Somaliland nor its recognition. its seems you are more obsessed with recognition pirate boy there are only interests not emotions if Anwar al sadat could have relations with Israel after fighting with israel i am sure why Somaliland cant we had never any problems with the Jewish state.

Jacaylbaro;927368 wrote: XX, Hada iska ilaali Popes kaas iyo Ciyaalka waxbaa kala haystee Jacalbaro dhibaatada keeneysa in caruurta popeku la faraka ciyaaro mar mar wu ku talax taga wa popeka looma ogola inu guursado, anigu sharci baan so saari laha popeku ha guursado oo ha nafiso , dabeedna caruurta faraka ciyaariska waka deyn laha, wa siday ila tahay

1 minister from Somaliland 9 ministers from Somalia President Prime Minister Speaker All from Somalia Army chief Police chief all from Somalia adeeer maad naga daysid dee mise xisaabta kugu adag Not that Somaliland cares for positions in Somalia Waxa Somalia ha deeqdo laga ma xuma

Its good that you are disappointed:D No need for people to dehumanize the state of Israel, they haven't attacked Somaliland nor harmed a Somalilander ever. Now why should we be involved in this conflict the only thing we can do is bring them closer to each other and not pick sides. There more than 30% Arab muslims part of israel and are represented in the israeli knesset. The Israeli Palestinian conflict is a difficult one in the region but that should not stop Somaliland from forging relations with Israel.

Oday stop pretending:D Somaliland is not represented my friend, because we dont need to be represented because Somalia is not our country. By the way your government has 10 ministers, only one is from Somaliland lol Even the Koonfurians know that Somaliland is not there they just hope Somaliland to be there, buts not going to happen.