Balcad: Al-Shabab Attack Exposes Government Fragility April 6, 2024 Mogadishu, SOMALIA – In a daring morning raid, Al-Shabab militants launched a multi-pronged attack on three checkpoints and a government office in Balcad, Middle Shabelle region, a mere 30 kilometers from the center of Mogadishu. The assault, which included the use of at least one suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED), has once again brought to the fore the resilience and adaptability of the militant group, despite the government’s assurances of its imminent defeat. The Attack and Its Implications The attack on Balcad, which resulted in the death of 11 Al-Shabab fighters according to district commissioner Qasim Furdug, is a testament to the group’s resilience and determination. While the government has not disclosed the number of casualties suffered by its forces, the extent of the damage inflicted upon the targeted checkpoints and government building is evident from eyewitness accounts and photographs from the scene. This successful attack, carried out a mere 30 kilometers from the center of Mogadishu, raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the government’s security measures and its ability to protect its citizens. Moreover, the attack on Balcad has significant implications for the broader conflict in Somalia. It demonstrates Al-Shabab’s continued ability to plan and execute complex operations, despite the government’s efforts to degrade its capabilities. The group’s success in striking at the heart of government-controlled areas undermines the credibility of the government’s claims of progress in the fight against terrorism and erodes public confidence in its ability to provide security. Furthermore, the attack serves as a reminder that Al-Shabab remains a potent force, capable of exploiting any weaknesses in the government’s defenses and capitalizing on political instability to further its agenda. The attack on Balcad comes at a time when the government in Mogadishu is embroiled in political turmoil, with ongoing disputes with Puntland and local politicians in the capital over a controversial constitutional change. This internal strife has diverted attention and resources away from the crucial fight against Al-Shabab, providing the militant group with an opportunity to regroup and launch attacks. The government’s preoccupation with political infighting has created a vacuum that Al-Shabab has been quick to exploit, as evidenced by the recent attack in Balcad and the group’s resurgence in other parts of the country. The political instability in Somalia has far-reaching consequences for the fight against terrorism. It undermines the government’s ability to present a united front against Al-Shabab and weakens its capacity to effectively coordinate counter-insurgency efforts. Moreover, the ongoing disputes and power struggles within the government erode public trust and confidence, making it more difficult to garner the support and cooperation of local communities in the fight against the militant group. This lack of unity and cohesion within the government creates a permissive environment for Al-Shabab to operate in, allowing the group to expand its influence and launch attacks with impunity. Broken Promises The resurgence of Al-Shabab in Balcad and other parts of the country stands in stark contrast to the optimistic promises made by President Hassan Sheikh more than a year ago. The president’s assurances that the war against Al-Shabab would be concluded “in weeks” and that the regions of HirShabelle and GalMudug would be liberated from the group’s control now ring hollow in the face of the group’s continued attacks and growing influence. The government’s inability to deliver on these promises has eroded public confidence and raised doubts about the effectiveness of the current counter-insurgency strategy. The attack on Balcad is a clear indication that a new approach is needed in the fight against Al-Shabab in Somalia. The government must reassess its priorities and develop a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of the conflict, including poverty, marginalization, and lack of opportunities for young people. This requires a multi-faceted approach that combines military action with efforts to promote good governance, economic development, and social cohesion. Moreover, the government must work to build trust and legitimacy among local communities, engaging them as partners in the fight against terrorism and addressing their grievances and concerns. The Al-Shabab attack on Balcad is a wake-up call for the government of Somalia, highlighting the urgent need for a united and determined approach in the fight against Al-Shabab. To turn the tide against the group, the government must set aside its internal squabbles and focus on developing a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of the conflict and engages local communities as partners in the fight against terrorism. The lives lost in Balcad should serve as a catalyst for change and a reminder of the high stakes involved in this ongoing struggle for peace and security. The government must act now to reassert its authority, restore public confidence, and provide a stable and secure environment for its citizens. Only through a concerted and coordinated effort, guided by a clear vision and a commitment to the well-being of the Somali people, can the government hope to defeat Al-Shabab and build a brighter future for the nation.

Oo Yes the mad mullah of the early 20th century once again , if the mad mullah was alive today would he side with jubbaland khatumo or would he side with shabaab in the political atmosphere of today

Ofcourse the more enemies the bunker has the better for Somaliland. Puntland and Somaliland should actually cooperate to battle the Bunker together

wasiirado dhan gacantay ka jabanyihin ahahahah

Inside story about Somaliland Somalia and Ethiopia

Time to visit Mogadishu then Haa niikoso

Thé gallas have read the master piece of meles zenawi how to deal with Somalis

We shall see how it goes i can assure u though on the SL side preperation of war is happening not sure when it is going to happen Nin geel ka waraaabinaya ayaad ii tustay how does proof that khatumo controls south of Ceerigaabo

So what Puntland will calll it self the Federal goverment from Garowe interesting to challenge the Bunker on the legitimacy of the goverment

Somaliland responds to the Bunker

But how can Puntland have a Foreign Policy is Puntland a Separate country or are they aspiring to become one . I believe it is not in the constitution of Somalia even in the former Constitution that mamuul goboleeds can have Foreign policy . So in a way puntland is breaching the very constitution it is trying to uphold.

If you think Somaliland is going to give up on the two districts of laascanood and taleex then u awaits a rude awakening somaliland loss of maraage and goojecadde battles will be avenged by Somaliland . To many things are at stake why do u think muuse biixi is sending more troops to oog every day and stock piling it’s not for security reasons only

absolutly not FGS have no control over Hargeisa or garowe Ethiopia will not stop its airliner from going to Hageisa and garowe It might apply to garowe but not Hargeisa , Because Hargeisa doesnt consider any constitution created by the bunker a valid legal agreement . Where as garowe considers the former a legal binding constitution . Hargeisa was not signatory to a constitution drafted for the former Defunct Somali republic(1960 1991). Garowe how ever way la mal maluuqatay one can say that it was cabdilahi Yusuf that help draft the first TFG charter this very so called constitution is actually based on. From a legal point of view the SL constitution stands firm as it was voted on by its People. Where as the Bunker constitution is nothing more then just a piece of paper , Xita puntland ba ka noqotay hadda. Customs will not be closed

i doubt the bunker can close the diplomatic office in Hargeisa the Ethiopian goverment since the hey days of Meles zenawi always kept the Ethopian diplomatic office in Hargeisa and kept it as a seperate entity Seperate from their Embassy in Mogadishu they had this diplomatic office even prior to the formation of the so called TNG of arte so even before they opened an embassy in Mogadishu they had this office

i never believed the west could help defend ukraine to defeat russia never i dont believe in western propoganda tigray miscalculated they under estemated the gallas i kinda expect the war in tigray to happen how ever tigray came out stronger now after the pretoria deals with abiye Isias and abiye are now no longer buddies which serves the interest of tigray , and the gallas are focused on amhara these days an no longer on the tigrayans as for sool and goojecadde the garaad clan and their allies might have won the first battle now but the war is far from over

in Somaliland we dont wish to be protected by an african man or a white man ,, Somalilanders control their land their people and their goverment what we want fromt he world is to respect our decscion to live in peace and harmony with our selves and our neighbours as free people. independence we have we have taken it its not given. by any one now we want our statehood to be acknowldged that is all . the chinese are worthless nobody needs these slave coperate companies that exploite africa have u seen what they have done with angola

Galbeedi why do u think or why would u think hsm who wants re election would entertain awdal where he can’t get any votes , yes hassan sheikh is against somaliland quest for statehood yes , but he also cares for coming back to power so why would he sacrifice supporting the internet state called awdal against somaliland then alienating the larger clan in Somaliland who then would oppose hun. What is there to gain from him just put ur self in his shoes what would u have done

Alshabaab cant be defeated by amisom the same way taliban was and couldn’t be defeated by the United States. The strategy hassan sheikh is trying to defeat shabaab with macsiwslay isn’t much of a strategy at all. Hassan ulusow is very divisive he has now driven away the only stable state that was a signotary to the bunker. Puntland how is he going to defeat shabaab the country is so divided now . Hassan sheikh has no solutions at all

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive. Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images APRIL 3, 2024 4:00 AM CET BY JAMIE DETTMER Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. KYIV — Wayward entrepreneur Elon Musk’s latest pronouncements regarding the war in Ukraine set teeth on edge, as he warned that even though Moscow has “no chance” of conquering all of Ukraine, “the longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnipro, which is tough to overcome.” “However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too,” he cautioned. Advertisement Advertisement With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback. But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling. Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset. And such a setback, especially in the middle of election campaigns in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing. Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push. And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim. Advertisement The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely. “There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO. According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength. Everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer | Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images However, the high-ranking Ukrainian officers reminded that relying on Russian errors is not a strategy, and they were bitter about the missteps they say hamstrung Ukraine’s resistance from the start — missteps made by both the West and Ukraine. They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have. “Zaluzhny used to call it ‘the War of One Chance,’” one of the officers said. “By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they’re quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully — but just for a short time. The Russians are always studying. They don’t give us a second chance. And they’re successful in this.” Advertisement “Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.” The officers said the shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by the U.K. and U.S. in the first weeks of the invasion came in time, helping them save Kyiv — and so, too, did the HIMARS, the light multiple-launch rocket systems, which were used to great effect, enabling them to push Russia out of Kherson in November 2022. “But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said. And that’s because, according to this officer, Russia is ready to counter them: “In the last few months, we started to notice missiles being fired by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without the explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we figured it out: They’re range-finding,” he said. The officer explained that Russia’s been calculating where best to deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems in order to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russia’s logistical hubs. The officers also said they now need more basic traditional weapons as well as drones. “We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” one of them told POLITICO, estimating that Ukraine needed 4 million shells and 2 million drones. “We told the Western partners all the time that we have the combat experience, we have the battlefield understanding of this war. [They] have the resources, and they need to give us what we need,” he added. Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs. Advertisement The officers emphasized that they need many, many more men too. The country currently doesn’t have enough men on the front lines, and this is compounding the problem of underwhelming Western support. However, Ukraine has yet to pull the trigger on recruitment ahead of the expected Russian push, as authorities are worried about the political fallout mobilization measures might bring amid draft-dodging and avoidance of conscription papers. Zaluzhny had already publicly called for the mobilization of more troops back in December, estimating Ukraine needed at least an additional 500,000 men. The draft issue has gone back and forth ever since. Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky — Zaluzhny’s replacement — abruptly announced that Ukraine might not need quite so many fresh troops. After a review of resources, the figure has been “significantly reduced,” and “we expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” he told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters,” he said. The plan is to move as many desk-bound uniformed personnel and those in noncombat roles to the front lines as possible, after an intensive three- to four-month training. But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering. “We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.” So, Musk may not be too wide of the mark after all.

no i think he hates Somaliland more he loves only the south and Siyad barre i think his hate for Puntland is only because deni supported hasssan sheikh to oust his hero the cheese fellow Thats where the hates stems from for puntland and ofcourse abdilahi Yusuf who turned his bay and bakool into an Ethiopian colony

What is more important is how will we go forward now and who is going to blink first and concede puntland or the bunker. Puntland ma ku adkaysan doonta diidmada dawladnimada bunkerka. Bunkerke see ma si waddi doona unilateral dhisida ama samaynta dasruurka cusub . So who is going to blink first

How come then he pursuaded the entire parliament to dance to his tunes or are u saying he bought them all also farmaajo and deni mps and sheikh dalxiis mps