The main concern for policy-makers in Addis Ababa is no longer Asmara's military capacity, but rather the possibility of Eritrea plunging into chaos. This fear is apparently so daunting to Ethiopia that it may prefer a reformed Eritrean government led by People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), rather than the insecurities of a violent power transition next door. On two occasions this year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has signalled his government's interest in dialogue and his willingness to go to Asmara for peace talks, at anytime and without any pre-conditions. Delicate issue of Bademe At the heart of the stalemate are symbolic politics and domestic constraints on both sides - of which the contested border town of Bademe is an embodiment. It is very possible that the EPRDF will hand over the symbolic town of Bademe to Eritrea - which was awarded to the latter by the EEBC - but it can only get away with such a move domestically by selling it as a necessary sacrifice for a comprehensive and durable peace. The fact that the individuals leading the current Ethiopian government did not take part in the decision-making processes of the border war and subsequent peace agreement, means that they are less constrained by the commitments of their predecessors. For President Afwerki, on the other hand, the stakes are much higher. In fact, resolving the stalemate is likely to create more challenges than benefits to his personal power base. The suspension of the parliament and the constitution, the universal and indefinite military conscription policy, and in general, the system of one-man rule have all been justified by the need to counter the "Ethiopian threat". A settlement of the border issue would eliminate the rationale for maintaining this system and would undoubtedly lead to new domestic demands for addressing the nation's many political and humanitarian problems. 'Brothers at war' Sentimental notions of brotherhood, betrayal, and ethnic-stereotypes have shaped the manner in which Ethiopia's EPRDF and Eritrea's PFDJ ruling parties have been relating to each other since the days of the guerrilla struggle. It is now time to think about what the relationship between these two states will look like without the two omnipresent strongmen that have heavily shaped their histories. The cultural and political intimacy and sense of fraternity that developed during their time as rebel movements led both parties to delay institutionalising the relationship between their newly established regimes in 1993 - and thus made possible the border war. These sentimental aspects also played an important role in making the conflict prolonged and eventually intractable. This sense of "intimacy" has also had some positive implications. One such effect is the preferential treatment given to Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia - who now number around 100,000 people. Eritrean refugees - provided that they satisfy certain criteria - are given residency and work permits and the opportunity to study in Ethiopian universities (as opposed to refugees from other neighbouring countries). Around 1,200 university scholarships have so far been offered to Eritrean refugees. However, the passing of time has brought with it substantial changes, and the more than a decade-long political and physical barriers led to an increasing cultural disconnectedness even among the people that live along the border. In Addis Ababa and other urban centres, it is even more challenging to arouse interest for Eritrean affairs among the average Ethiopian. Post-Zenawi and post-Afwerki A refugee crisis, high-level defections, and a recent mutiny in the army, are some of many indications that Afwerki's regime is facing an existential threat that may lead to its demise in the near future. Afwerki is now on "survival mode" and may engage in new and desperate gestures to prolong his time in power, such as opening up to the international community for dialogue and humanitarian aid. However, if his past behaviour is anything to go by, such moves are only likely to be tactical survival manoeuvres that will not reverse the current political trajectory. It is now time to think about what the relationship between these two states will look like without the two omnipresent strongmen that have heavily shaped their histories. In Ethiopia, this process of change has already begun, and the time when both countries will be led by a generation without the historical and political baggage inherited from the liberation war, the border war and subsequent peace settlement might not be far ahead in time. Free from these constraints, the post-Afwerki and post-Zenawi Eritrea-Ethiopia relations will most likely not only be normalised, but also much more institutionalised. Kjetil Tronvoll is a professor of peace and conflict studies at Bjorknes College, and Senior Partner at the International Law and Policy Institute. He has written Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Ethiopian-Eritrean War and The Lasting Struggle for Freedom in Eritrea: Human Rights and Political Development, 1991-2009. Goitom Gebreluel is an advisor at the International Law and Policy Institute. He has previously worked for the Norwegian government (Norad) and taught foreign policy studies at Mekelle University, Ethiopia. The views expressed in this article are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Ethiopia and Eritrea: Brothers at war no more New internal and external dynamics are shaping the relations between the two countries. Last updated: 08 Dec 2013 12:29 Goitom Gebreluel is an advisor at the International Law and Policy Institute. He has previously worked for the Norwegian government (Norad) and taught foreign policy studies at Mekelle University, Ethiopia. Kjetil Tronvoll is a professor of peace and conflict studies at Bjorknes College, and Senior Partner at the International Law and Policy Institute. He has written Brothers at War: Making Sense of the Ethiopian-Eritrean War and The Lasting Struggle for Freedom in Eritrea. Eritrean refugees meeting certain criteria are allowed to study and work in Ethiopia [Reuters] The relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia is arguably the most important and volatile in East Africa. The fall-out between the former brothers-in-arms initiated a two-year-long border war in 1998, which claimed around 100,000 causalities, cost billions of dollars, and continues to serve as the main source of regional instability in the Horn of Africa. The fighting was brought to an end with the signing of the Algiers Peace Agreement and establishment of the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Commission (EEBC) in 2000. However, Ethiopia's refusal to implement the rulings of the EEBC prior to negotiations and Eritrea's insistence on an unconditional and immediate demarcation of the border, have locked the two governments in an intractable stalemate. Despite the official cessation of hostilities in 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea continued their war through proxies by supporting various rebel movements throughout the Horn of Africa. In this way, they have been fuelling conflict and instability in each other's countries as well as the wider region. Thirteen years after the Algiers Peace Agreement, domestic conditions in both states and the regional geopolitical equation have undergone substantial changes. Ethiopia lost its long-time strongman, Meles Zenawi, in 2012. There are strong indications that Eritrea is also very likely to see the departure of its own leader, President Isaias Afwerki, in the near future. Moreover, Ethiopia has been experiencing robust economic growth and political stability over the last decade, a development that has also coincided with a significant weakening of its regional adversaries. The political standoff between Ethiopia and Eritrea has very much been tied to the role, interests and historical experiences of particular individuals and circles that hail from one generation - the Marxist-Leninist student movements turned guerrilla fighters in the 1960s and 1970s. With the political and generational changes that are taking place in both countries, a normalisation of relations between these two states might take place in the not so distant future. A new chapter In Addis Ababa, the discourse on Eritrea has evolved from initially being considered a significant military threat next door to that of concerns over state collapse, civil war and its security implications. Ethiopia's ruling EPRDF (Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front) government faced, as recently as 2007, the tactical alliance of Eritrea, Ethiopian armed rebels and factions in Somalia (such as the Islamic Courts Union - ICU). To many observers the security equation seemed at that time to be in favour of this alliance. In a significant turn of developments, Eritrea underwent a process of rapid economic, political and humanitarian decline - a clear indicator of which, is its emergence as one of the top refugee producing countries in the world. In Somalia, the ICU has been eliminated, and its successor al-Shabab has also been dealt a blow that it is unlikely to recover from. Ethiopian authorities are adamant about the normalisation of relations and economic integration of the two nations. Armed Ethiopian insurgent groups, such as the Oromo Liberation Front and ****** National Liberation Front, have largely declined, due to, among other things, their inability to remain cohesive. In addition to this, the Ethiopian economy - and consequently its military power - has undergone sustained growth over the last decade. Asmara's support for Somali-based rebel groups made it an international pariah and target of a regime under UN sanctions. Although Eritrea is not the only actor to engage in such actions (Ethiopia harbours a dozen Eritrean rebel groups), the consequences have been particularly severe for Eritrea. This is mainly due to its choice of allies in Somalia, which happened to be at loggerheads with much of the regional and international community. President Isaias Afwerki's inability to play the diplomatic game and persuade the international community to support, or at least understand his viewpoint, created conducive conditions for the late PM Zenawi - who succeeded where Afwerki failed.

No double standerdnimo at all.

No jawaab, Siilaanyo lugu ma casumin garowe wax shuqul oo kale oo ka dhexeysa ma jirto no cilaqaad,between him and garowe ededadi habaryarti, saaxib toona kama joogo,,marka maxa baas eeh meesha geeynaya. Siiilaanyo ma waxa lugugu yidhi meel walba wa iska taga. Silaanyo xita waligi zambia ma tegin, inkasto nin ay saaxib yihin degenyahay zambia. Dadku ma wada budhcad badeed ba oo meel walba daf bay iska odhanayan ileen inaga wax aragnay.

Brother Iqbal was married to a Somaliland lady and he has lived for more than 12 years in Somaliland thats why he got the SL citizenship not just because he wrote a book, He wrote the book much and much later.

Mandela was an African icon RIP old lion. Now we have Robert Mugabe the last African lion

^^ You said u never see Siilaanyo in garowe,, but why would u see Siilaanyo in garowe weye suaashu maxa ka yaala , adiga leh maxaan ugu arki wayey garowe, dee maxaad ugu arki maxase ka yaala ?

By the way brother Iqbaal he did more for Somaliland, than many other SL citizens he raised awareness for the SL cause Brother Iqbaal wrote this book about Somaliland back in 2010

dee anigu garan mayo waxa Siilaanyo Ka yaala Garowe, bal adigu ino sheeg adiga yidhi wa inu taga.

Gheelle.T;990427 wrote: What do an old albino man, an Indian from South Africa, and a duriyadda lady in Djabouti have in common? They are all Somalilandish citizens. Cant beat that, Xaaji. Brother John is not an old albino man he is just an elderly man , but you are right they are all Somaliland citizens:D

Yahya is Arabic John is English Yochanan is Hebrew and as Yahya or John the baptist, was of the Bani israil thats his correct name Somalis need to have their own name for John, like some have Johnny.

Brother John has the Somaliland citizenship he has been in Somaliland since 1943 ,he voted for Siilaanyo in the last elections. Brother Iqbal also has the Somaliland citizenship he was the former SL representative to South Africa currently he is the South African Ambassador to Eritrea Khadra Hayd Djiboutis first lady also has the Somaliland citizenship

^^ Somalilandish is the language and the ethnicity,, Somalilander is the demonym

^^ Depends if its a female it goes smoothly, for a male it takes much longer

^^ If he was born in Somaliland, the Somaliland government on some occasions gives them citizenship

guleed_ali;990403 wrote: Xaji what are the criteria to be considered a Somalilander? Is it lineage, qabil, residence? Its based on a Somalilandish ethnicity and, citizenship is often also given to some residents people some Europeans Arabs and some Koonfurians.

SomaliPhilosopher;990402 wrote: Loooooooooooool I am not a Kenyan citizen. btw there are is a huge number of Kenyan Somalilanders. You mean ethnic Somalilandish people from Kenya, like Amina Muhammad Kenyan foreign minister they trace their lineage back to SL if they wish they can get the SL citizenship.

^^ You are not from Somaliland last time i checked you were a Kenyan citizen

Somaliland: Registration of Voters to Start 2014 Sunday, 08 December 2013 20:13 NEC Spokesman Ahmed H. GelleNEC Spokesman Ahmed H. Gelle By: M.A. Egge HARGEISA: (Somalilandsun)- The NEC announced that the 2015 general election will simultaneously consist of both presidential and parliamentary polling. Previously in all the past five times that SL voters exercised their rights were separately; viz civic, parliamentary and presidential. They at the same time revealed that a US company, Creative Associates, have been retained for their services in the registration process. The spokesperson for the NEC Mr. Ahmed Hersi Geele said that the registering of voters is expected to be commenced and completed before the elapse of 2014. Saying that five competent institutions had vied for the contract, the American Creative Associates won the tender. NEC revealed that the latest civic election was flawed since multiple times were polled by same voters on a rampant and tribal manner. They however said that the registration would consist of both the national registration one and that of the electoral process. It may be safe to assume that the system may be biometric since NEC plans to postpone the national index registration. Naturally it is versa in any country. It beats reason to have electoral voter registration before the national personal index identification.

In the Somali peninsula (Somalia and Somaliland) there are many ongoing conflicts what has priority what should wait, and why The Puntland and SFG relations and how to rebuild Somalias central command and restore relations between the provinces and the central government, and how to build the senate upper house and implement the constitution. The Puntland elections and the winner of those elections and his future relations with the government of Mogadishu. The Somali government gave allot of priority to the Jubba admin for the past year or so its seems to be as good as solved.Whats next on the Agenda is the Somali government and Alshabaab conflict it seems this conflict has allot of priority if you ask me Alshabaab is in constant conflict with the Somali government, there should be honest talks between the Amisom the Somali government and Alshabaab, its seems Alshabaab cannot be defeated they lose more ground but they retaliate with more attacks. The Somalia and Somaliland conflict and dispute about their future relations now this one is a controversial one it questions the very foundation of the Somali state which came to existence half a century ago. The 2 sides took baby steps to restore relations in turkey facilitated talks. The situation has been tense flights canceled between Somalia and Somaliland airspace dispute. The selection of a new prime minister of Somalia will he make a difference or will he remain in the background him being appointed does it even have a priority or not?

The TPLF remodeled Ethiopia because Ethiopia was a large Empire lumped together by Force, for centuries. Ethiopias weakness is because there are so many different people and there are so many religious and secession movements. Ethiopias national language is Amharic its written language is Geez. For more than 120 years Ethiopia was led by the Amxara and their oromo cousins of the central regions. This came to an end in 1991 when the TPLF and EPLF tigre forces put an end to that rule. When in 1991 General Hayelom Araya of the TPLF was closing into addis ababa he ordered his men to capture the head quarters of the Military in and around addis ababa, imprison the derg commanders, and he installed new commanders under his command, but he declared that the Ethiopian military institution will be stronger than before. The foundation of the Ethiopian state has credible tenacious roots. In Ethiopia its leaders take their responsibility eventhough the Tigre forced the Amxara and oromo to sit in the back of the bus. Their Nationalism is much stronger despite their differences and ethnic origins religious differences. The highest commander of the Ethiopian army Yunis samora is a Tigre Muslim.Somalis all of them the one in Somalia and Somaliland never take their responsibility for what went wrong they blame each other , the Xabashi is not strong , but Somalis are emotional, and cant think rationally for the good of their people, and there is no father figure with in the Somali society mid walba meel bu u socda. u will hear today they are all crying we are humiliated tomorow halkoodi bay ka miisayaan.

Tallaabo;990294 wrote: There are no cracks in his armour. I too believe that with more educated politicians on both sides who have the knowledge and the skills to engage in an in depth negotiations, Somaliland and Somalia along with Djibouti can have a common market, single currency, one passport, single air traffic control, and a NATO style defence pact. We can even have a common ceremonial head of state like the UK, Canada, and Australia do. But unfortunately, to Somalis politics is nothing more than deception, thievery, lies, corruption, nepotism, dishonesty, suppression, oppression, arrogance, and all the other evils we see in most of them. Most have no concept of what public service is about. Tallaabo these people are not honest when they cry about Somalinimo they are not ready to compromise and to meet people half way they believe in their way or the high way when that attitude leads Somalia , there is no hope for a genuine union of trust equality justice based on mutual interests of the Somali countries. These people believe Somalinimo and Somali honer is build on making threats from the barracks

malistar2012;990286 wrote: Xaji Unlike Modaba and Faarole jr politicians and Islamist, Mudan Siilaanyo is a veteran Politician iconic leader more then 40 years deep in the game it is shame he is ending his career as Puppet with nothing to gain .Prime Minister of Ethiopia Hailemariam Desalegn downgraded and showed Sillanyo he is nothing but a Governor and was told to hide his pride sit in line next to Sh Modaba . Prime Minister of Ethiopia Hailemariam Desalegn is more clever and dangerous then Meles Zenawi, the next couple of years will be interesting .Rumors are Hailemariam Desalegn believes in keeping Somalia together in a stable condition free of terrorist is the best interest of Ethiopia. Haile mariam deselegen is a tigre puppet him self his wolayta people are under severe supervision by the TPLF Tigres, haile mariam is not the decision making of Ethiopia. Sillaanyo has been working to put Somaliland on the map since 1982 and he will be doing that , there is no better legacy than a man who had everything and choose to be in the bush with his people and fight for his country. And till this day he serves his people.

No Silaanyo is 19 years younger than Mandela.

I never gave it a positive spin i just agreed with the Tallaabo the Ethiopians want to use this event to halt secession elements in the Somali Kilil. A symbolic superiority of Ethiopia and a divided Somali state, giving the Somalis under Ethiopia nothing but to accept the Ethiopian identity. Somaliland rejected the London and Turkey conference because it lumps Somalia with Somaliland and gives the government of Somalia the central authority of both countries. I agree that it would have been better to send a minor Somaliland deputy Minister to Jigjiga the same way the Kenyans send the nairobi's deputy Mayor, it is what it is son.