Yet another peace deal approaches with those who signed the last empty deal nowhere to be seen.The UWSLF group vanished after getting there phot-shoot done, what are the circumstances surrounding this one? Andrew Koriri a Sub-Sahara Africa Security Analyst gives with striking accuracy the truth about the upcoming sham. Interesting read for all the cynics. Andrew Koriri (Sub-Sahara Africa Security Analyst) By Andrew Koriri On the night of September 21, 2010, less than a week after hundreds of **** National Liberation Front (ONLF) armed fighters trained by Eritrea trespassed through Somaliland and entered into the Somali Region of Ethiopia (****), Senior Ethiopian regime officials were in Bole International Airport (Addis Ababa) to receive an “ONLF” delegation led by Salahadin Ma’ow Sh. Abdirahman. In the coming few days, most likely in the first week of October, the “ONLF” faction that chose peace with Ethiopia will hold conferences inside the **** region. The plan is to organize one such conference in Gari’goan, a place of symbolic value for the ONLF, as it is where its first conference was held after the fall of the Derg regime. This will be followed by a large meeting with the ‘people’ in Kebri-Dahar to brief on the outcomes of the Gari’goan conference. In June 2010, The Ethiopian regime also signed a peace deal with the United Western Somali Liberation Front (UWSLF), a defunct Islamist front with no armed presence in the region. The group’s leader Sheekh Ibrahim is now in the capital of the Somali regional State – Jigjiga, but there has been no change for the better in the security situation of the region since his group signed the peace deal. In fact, it got worse with clashes between the Government forces and the ONLF rebels becoming more frequent and more intense. In the month of September alone, the Ethiopian regime claimed to have killed over 120 rebel fighters, while the ONLF on its part issued a series of military communiqués in which it claimed to have killed several hundreds of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). Because it is clear that foes do not turn into trusting friends overnight – over a span of a week in this case, it is obvious that Salahadin is not the man who sent the three hundred fighters into the region. In fact, only two months ago, the Salahadin was in negotiation with an Ethiopian regime delegation in the United States of America; which tells us that he is not also the man who commands the rebel fighters who are fighting inside the **** region. This brings several questions. (1) If the new ‘ONLF’ group can’t silence the guns that are blazing in the region, what peace can they offer? (2) Could it be the case that they have a strong public appeal and hence can offer political capital to the Ethiopian Government in its fight against ONLF, or the ‘faction that still refuses to negotiate’, as the government likes to describe the ONLF led by Admiral Mohamed Omar Osman (the man who is known to be the bona fide leader of the ONLF)? (3) If the peace deals with UWSLF didn’t help the situation on the ground, why does the Ethiopian Government continue to engage in yet another peace deals with groups that are unlikely to have a real impact in how things are going on the ground? (4) What does the Ethiopian regime hope to achieve with these ‘peace’ deals? (5) What repercussions will it have for the ONLF that is not part of this deal? Meles Zenawi’s Mindset and two-pronged Strategy Prime Minsiter Meles Zenawi made a telling interview on August 11, 2010 in which he delved in depth into the clan system of the **** community and basically drew a line between sub-clans he said are fighting him and those he labeled as either friendly or negotiating. It was a wrong generalization and it drew the ire of the ONLF which immediately issued a press release accusing him of inciting genocide against one particular sub-clan under his rule. It was an embarrassing interview in which Meles appeared more like a traditional leader of a clan entity than a political leader of a multi-ethnic state. The whole interview has been a catalogue of outbursts which led many to raise questions over the Prime Minister’s political sanity. But the utterances could help us read the mindset of Mr. Meles and why vain peace deals have become the vogue in ****. Meles Zenawi knows that these peace deals will not yield military dividends in the form of weakened operational capacity of the ONLF. However, he counts on them leading to further divisions among the support base of the ONLF- the various **** sub-clans. He hopes this would translate into a growing pressure on ONLF leadership to acquiesce to his demands. Therefore, he sees these peace projects as worthy investments. There are also some analysts who see this process as a public relations exercise designed to woo back petrified international mining companies into the region. It could also be part of a larger scheme to give the façade of readiness to attend to the concerns of the international community who continue to voice concerns over human right violations in Ethiopia in general and mainly in ****. The Utility of ‘Turns’ Throughout the history of mankind, converts have been used to show the superiority of one’s religion, idea or system. ‘Turns’ are a vital expression of triumphant power, proof that a cause is convincing and potent. So, by fronting ‘ex-ONLF’ men who have discarded their ‘wrong’ ideologies, the regime in Addis Ababa hopes to show that the ONLF is pursuing a lost cause. That is also another reason why it is imperative to import men from the Diaspora; men who may or may not have anything to do with ONLF, and parade them to the local and international media to prove the quandary in which the ONLF is in. This writer is reliably informed that there is only one man who ever had any contact with ONLF in any capacity in the entire ‘ONLF’ delegation that landed at Bole on September 21, 2010. The leader of the delegation, Salahadin Ma’ow, was a member of the central committee of the ONLF before he was ousted in 2004 along with the late Dr. Mohamed Sirad Dollal, later killed by the Ethiopian army in 2009. Therefore, while he is a ‘Turn’ in the sense that he was a member of the ONLF in the past, he may not be a very useful ‘turn’, as he was in the cold for a while. This will damage the potency of the message of ‘peace’ Salahadin may espouse in the coming days. It is instructive to note that there is no single member out of the serving 51 members of the central committee of the ONLF who is part of this peace deal. Likewise, not a single military commander of the ONLF has yet to surrender and join this group. It is therefore highly unlikely that events on the ground will be affected by the ongoing processes. None of the Diaspora contingent who morphed into ‘ONLF’ representatives overnight has a recognizable public standing and hence are unlikely to influence the opinions of the majority of the **** people. The role of local Militias in the fight against ONLF From 2007, the Ethiopian regime started to arm local militias against the ONLF. In addition to the useful intelligence information they bring in, the local militias known as Liyu Police (Special Police) are mainly formed to thwart international criticisms of the Ethiopian regime's military and to paint the conflict as internal civil war in the region. The Liyu Police offer little resistance to the ONLF as they are poorly trained and are largely urban and semi-urban school drop-outs with little motivation to fight. Their main use is the cover they provide for the Ethiopian army in its handling of the conflict. Meles follows a two-pronged strategy in dealing with the ONLF menace: divide and weaken the ONLF through series of ‘peace deals’, and intensify the use of local militias in the fight alongside the national army, to insulate the army and himself from any accountability. He will likely continue to rely more on the second one, which is arming local militias; after the current phase of the ‘peace deal’ is finalized and the fanfare dies down. The conflict in the region will continue to claim more lives on both sides and shows no sign of ending. The **** conflict is a political one which lingered on for a long time and it can only be ended with a political solution. The current peace deals signed by the Ethiopian Government and various groups with no military and political clout in the region will not help in advancing genuine peace and reconciliation in the region. In fact, it will do more harm as it will undervalue the meanings of peace deals. Recommendations 1. The Ethiopian regime must realize that staged peace pranks are not substitute to genuine peace agreements. The conflict in **** can only be resolved when real actors came face to face and discuss real issues. It must agree to unconditional negotiations with ONLF in a neutral country and in the presence of international mediators, as this is consistent with all known models of conflict resolution in the world. 2. The ONLF must prepare itself to make painful concessions if and when such an international negotiation is organized. It must see the armed struggle only as a means of bringing the Ethiopian regime to the negotiating table and should not be influenced by any outside forces in taking decisions about peace. (Andrew Koriri is Sub-Sahara Africa Security Analyst. He can be reached at andrewkoriri@ymail.com )

kk

Again, is this thread serious? [/QB] C'mon Eritrea and Somaliland kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk Eritrea is like Dubai to Somaliland.

Inuu JacaylBaro farsameeyay ma mooda hawlgalka dhan... Mar ba meel haloo boodo...

Dee ma kala foga Mudaaharaad is a component of an uprising, a very important ingredient actually. This is an uprising/revolt/civil unrest whatever you want to call it.

kkkkkkkkk. What a load of COW MANURE...we all know the story theres no need to desseminate misinformation now. Your getting desperate mate...very desperate.

:cool: @topic Guul JWXO Indeed.

^Wishful thinking lol

A&T No casualties on the ONLF side.If it did its minimal.I have spoken to a large nuumber of people, some of them spoke directly to high-ranking officials and the troops are safe.They stopped contact for a while as they had to switch there military communication systems off but there was contact this morning and the news was good.There in good spirits.

This is too funny walee...kkk. 123 troops killed from ONLF is just wishful thinking.Somalilanders are using this fake news report from Ethiopian stooge Cabdi Ilay to cover there embrassment.Which is telling of there stance.Ethiopia has been looking for excuses to directly infiltrate Waqooyi affairs now they have a very fine one, soon there will be an army base in Seylac and lughaye kk

How is it shameful, they said our troops are not based outside the region which is there official policy.There admission would stain there reputation and strain there alliances.From a political outlook its a negative for the struggle.If there were casualties(Hypothetically speaking), those men have taken a heavy oath to defend and drive Ethiopia out of there land.They dont need recognition on VOA.Its not American Idol.

Jacaylbaro why are you wishing ill for ONLF you scumbag...really thats a scumbag attitude. Only an I.diot would take Cabdi Ilays unintelligent remarks on VOA as serious.We killed 123 men give me a break.tommorrow he will visit Jeel O'gadeen in Jigjiga and display them as ONLF soldiers as he usually does. You and your administration and now Ethiopia are completely in the dark over this issue.You have been out-smarted and out-manouvered.Good luck next-time.

Maxaa ka jira wararka sheegaya in ciidamo ONLF lagu tuhunsanyahay ay ka soo dageen xeebaha gobalada Waqooyi Galbeed Soomaliya. Sep 14, 2010 (QOL) Qorahay Online oo baadhitaan ku samaysay wararka la isla dhex marayo ee sheegaya in uu jiro Ciidan aad u hubaysan oo ka soo dagay xeebaha Soomaaliya gaar ahaan gobalada Waqooyi Galbeed laguna tuhunsanyahay in ay ka tirsanyihiin Ururka ONLF, Qorahay Online oo u kuur gashay wararkas ayaa loo cadeeyay in ay jiraan howlgalo Militari oo ay Ciidanka Waddaniga Xoreynta O'gadeenya qaybta Ciiltire todobaadkan ka wadeen gudaha O'gadeenya gaar ahaan gobalka Shiniile, waxayna wararku sheegayaan in CWXO qaybta Ciiltire ay hoowlgalo & dhaq dhaqaaq ciidan oo xoogleh ka wadaan agagaarka dagmada [b[Ayshica[/b] oo aan sidaas uga fogayn halka la sheegayo in ay Ciidamo ONLF lagu tuhunsanyahay ka soo dageen. Wararka aanu helayno waxay intaas ku darayaan howlgalka CWXO qaybta Ciiltire in ay ku dileen ciidan badan oo Itoobiyaan ah. Gudoomiye ku xigeenka 2aad ee ONLF Abdiqaadir Hassan Biixi Hirmooye (Caddaani) oo aan wax ka waydiinay arimahaas ayaa ku timaamay wararkaasi kuwo aan waxba ka jirin wuxuuna sheegay Mudane Cadaani in ay ONLF ka howlgalayso gudaha O'gaeenya "mana jiraan wax ciidan ah oo ONLF dibada uga yimid waxayna ciidamada ONLF ka dagaalamayaan dhamaan dhulka O'gadeenya" sidaas waxaa yidhi Mudane Caddani. Qorahey Online qorahay99@yahoo.com

They have crossed into Shiniile province along the Djabuti border, all details point to ONLF.

News Im getting from a few sources. - 600-900 fighters entered between Saylac and Lughaye. -Transported in 14 civillian trucks belonging to prominent Borama people. -Somaliland knew of these troops but decided not to act, they are however conducting damage control in relations to there alliance with the Ethiopians.

Spreading Rumors to seek Ethiopian Favors MONDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2010 20:06 ****** ONLINE Reports reaching the ****** Online Service desk from both within ****** and inside the self styled fiefdom in North Western Somalia confirm that there are no ****** National Liberation Army (ONLA) units that are surrounded by neither Woyane militias nor militias from the self-styled Somali fiefdom in the North West Somalia province (Somaliland). The reporters also confirm that there are no ONLA units that are deployed outside the ****** borders at the time of going to press. When inquired what the possible motives could be for the self styled Somali fiefdom in North Western Somalia to spread news of the presence of ONLA units within its territory, our senior reporters all agreed that there is politics and Ethiopian favor-seeking motives behind the spread of this rumor. They have indicated that this news follows recent, unfavorable events where the Woyane regime in Addis Ababa did not provide the welcome mat this new regime was looking for. Since many within the Woyane militia hierarchy have openly accused the new regime in the self styled fiefdom in the North West of having sympathy for ‘ONLF’, the reporters believe that this type of rumor is meant to show the Woyane regime how ‘determined’ this new regime is in controlling its borders so that the ONLF does not use the region as a transit point.

HAHAHAHAHAHHA kkkkkkkkkkk Whats this imaginary force hiding in the mountains...kkk.

Odayada are stuck between a rock and a hard place.One-side deep with-in them they know there support and prayers lie with there sons and daughters but they also fear Meles's threat against this beel is no bluff.so they must walk a tight-rope and walk towards maslaxada beesha. Eebe ha u gargaaro odayada.

kkkkkk So who is this phantom ONLF. I need names and former positions of these men. 1.Salahudiin? 2.??? 3.?? caqli xumada iska daaya.

Ethiopian-sponsored websites are expressing doubt in this scam too. Jabhadda ONLF oo beeniysay in wadahal ay la galeyso Dawladda Itoobiya. 08/23/00 Dooxa (Kilil5). Jabhadda ONLF ayaa maanta waxba kama jiraan ku tilmaantay Xubno ka tirsan Jabhadda oo heshiis lagalaya Dawladda Itoobiya, iyadoo sheegtay in wararkaasi aysan waxba ka jirin. Dawladda Itoobiya ayaa dhankeeda ka sheegtay in wada hadal uu usocdo Dawladda iyo ONLF, taas oo heshiis kama dambays ah lagu kala saxiixan doono Addis Ababa. Xuseen Max’ed Nuur oo ah madaxa Warfaafinta Jabhadda ONLF ayaa mar uu maanta la hadlayay Warbaahinta Caalamka sheegay inaysan waxba ka jirin warkii maalmo ka hor ka soo baxay Dawladda Itoobiya, waxa kale oo uu sheegay in Eng.Salaaxudiin oo ah Guddoomiyaha garabka nabadda qaatay ee ONLF ee wada hadalka kula jirta Itoobiya ay horey uga saareen Jabhadda sannadkii 2006, kadib markii uu lunsaday dhaqaalo ay laheyd Jabhaddu waa sida uu hadalka u dhigay. Madaxa Warfaafinta Jabhaddu waxaa uu sidoo kale sheegay in dagaalo ay Ciidanka Itoobiya la galeen Bishan Ramadaan dhexdeeda ay la wareegeen 10 xero Ciidan, isalmarkaana ay dileen sida uu hadalka u dhigey Saraakiil ka tirsan Dawladda Itoobiya. Jabhadda ONLF ayaa inta badan ku tilmaanta garabkan Nabadda qaatay kuwo aan Ururka ma talin, isla markaana Xubnaha garabkan horey looga saaray Jabhadda waa sida ay hadalka u dhigaan, iyadoo geesta kale Garabkan nabadda qaatay ee ONLF ee wakhti xaadirkan iyagu ku sugan gudaha Degaanka ay sheegtaan inay yihiin ONLFtii saxda ahayd. Waxaa xusid mudan in aan wali la arkin Ciidan buuxa oo ONLF ah oo kusoo galay heshiisyada Dawladda iyo garabkan Nabadda qaatay ee ONLF, sida Ciidanka Jabhadda UWSLF oo iyagu markay soo galayeen ay wada socdeen Madaxdooda iyo Ciidankooduba, waxayna arrimaha noocan ahi shacabka Degaanka ku keeneen jahawareer intiisa la eg. Dooxa, Qadar Kilil5 Online

D/P

Yawwwwwwwn I can now see you have nothing to say except repeat the same useless statements which have no verifiable evidence but a TPLF stamp.Your clueless and you must resort to this. I said stick Garowe for your own good because you embarassing yourself.This side of politics you obviously lack substance.

I cant debate with a person who is spewing raw TPLF propoganda and cant bring rational arguments from his own knowledge base. For your darling comment that was when Meles arrived on the scene but today he is the 10th most repressive leader in the world and has rigged two elections along with the massive human rights violations which has been widely documented.He runs a kleptocracy not a state.There is no argument about these fundemental facts. As for Kenya compared to Ethiopia.It has a professional free press, It has an independent professional judiciary and its politicians are willing to make concessions as we saw with the power-sharing deal after the election violence, If Kibaki was Meles Odinga nad his party would not exist today.Along with this many minorites have been included in the goverment.More recently they have enacted a new constitution which was done under a free and fair vote.This is a milestone for kenya.This is a country light-years ahead of Ethiopia and its Dictatorship of 19 years. This is a good article of how Ethiopians under the darkness of Dictatorship are craving for Kenya's progress. http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/28772. Some facts you need to understand. * Meles is not a democrat dont make a fool of yourself.99% result for an election is an embarassment democracy. *Meles did not come to power through a bloodless coup but a rebellion. *The leader of the so-called faction is not even from Qabridahar hes from Dhobaweyn and hes not even from the clan meles mentioned.ONLF's deputy and second deputy, there foreign minister and countless other ministers are from Qabridahar and they are not negotiating. Clear.You dont make sense and clearly I dont understand your motive mate.Stick to Garowe politics where its more simple.

A load of bollocks!! 1.Whos is the Qabridahar and Dhagaxbuur wing? Meles propoganda? this is word for word from his latest interview how can you expect to be taken serious.The ONLF leadership is known and none of its departments and its armed forces have consulted nor even talked to the Goverment of Ethiopia.This other ONLF group has been a line that has been used for the past 19 years. 2. Kenya is one of a few nations which has reformed to become a stable democracy in a continent of dictators.How can the Meles goverment be compared to Kenya, A goverment who has obliterated all opposition.A goverment which produced one of the most rigged election results on record(99.6%).Can this Goverment be trusted. 3.The UWSLF never was a force in the region as Meles admitted in his own interview.They accepted the terms of the Ethiopian Goverment and had no agenda but to return to the land again without those arrest warrants.As mentioned he used the UWSLF under the Itixaad brand to gain funding in the 90's when they posed no significant(under the guise of terrorism) and now he using them under the UWSLF brand to regain some credibility and fool the International community and stakeholders. 4.We talk about peace but why does the Ethiopian goverment refuse to negotiate in a nuetral country with ONLF as proposed.Why does it have these shady deals with "insignificant forces" but cannot commit to a real peace process with its most powerful insurgency? Why doesnt it allow the U.N, NGO's and the free media to inspect the region where it allows a few wadaads to do the same? What are they hiding? 5.The Goverment of Ethiopia continues to limit political space for the whole of Ethiopia, it is supressing the media to a few outlets and is getting repressive by the day.What guarantees the Somali minority to gain any rights where major groups such as the Oromo and Amhara are without any political voice. 6.The goverment of Ethiopia controls Ethiopia through a series of regional sattellite parties linked with the TPLF who carry out there mandate in each region as per the TPLF's demands.With this in place, how will there be a process to have a legitimate governing body that truly represents the people when this is the system in place for the TPLF. 7.With the Amhara there next of kin are following the ONLF route to regain there rights, it truly says something about the political climate in Ethiopia.There is a goverment in place controlled by the Tigray ethnic group who have put in place mechanisms to ensure they with firmness retain control of the state through there sattelite regions with there affliate militias and the ruthless military.The goverment can create the illusion they are negotiating and they can produce tampered economic data regarding growth(When 85% of Ethiopians live in poverty) but the reality is clear and far from what this goverment wants to smuggle into the conscience of people. I say go take all that hogwash and feed it to the feeble minded.We are very aware of the region, we contact it on a weekly and sometimes daily basis.Dont lecture us on the issues on the ground mate. When meles feels the heat, he will negotiate and with a country up in arms in every corner.The country will cave in as with Mengistu.

Ibrahim hadalkiisa meel naga dhiga, 15 minutkii wuu ka dhamaaday.