The complex and often unpredictable Somali saga seems to be drifting wobbly from worse to worse. The much-awaited crumble of the TFG house of cards coincides with the advent of a myriad of loosely-knit radical Islamist factions whose institutional infrastructure spans across the Somali inhabited regions of the Horn of Africa. The sway and influence of the emergent hard-line Islamists is gaining momentum while all other ventures, including the inexcusable Ethiopian military intervention seem to have bungled. The Somali crisis becomes increasingly entrenched and intractable and is unlikely to be resolved in the near future. With the hindsight knowledge, it is interesting to note that the Ethiopian military intervention was the best thing that happened to Al-Shabab. It provided a much-needed casus belli to a largely unpopular Islamist radical group which was in its embryonic stage. Al-Shabab must be indebted to Ethiopia and IGAD for their meteoric rise and mysterious staying-power. The presence of Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu and Baydhabo was the principal raison d’etre of the loosely-affiliated Islamists. Enmity towards Ethiopia remains the major unifying factor among the hordes of unruly Islamist militias who sway the control of much of southern Somalia. The upcoming departure of Ethiopian troops is expected to trigger a deadly internecine strife between the various Islamist factions. A mutually destructive struggle between the Islamists would eventually diminish their clout on socio-economic and political life of Somalis in the Horn and beyond. And that seems to be on track!

Soon after the inauguration of the enlarged parliament in Baydhabo, the new Somali government will table a motion for the recognition of Somaliland. The motion will certainly be passed as most of the Somali politicians in the south are now convinced that the best way forward for Somalia and Somaliland is to mutually recognize each other. This will facilitate the process of stabilization in the troubled south and shall pave the way for Somaliland to play a pivotal role in the restoration of a functional government and peace in Somalia. Afterwards, at the behest of the government of Somalia and the UN, Somaliland will deploy peace keeping forces in Mogadishu and Baydhabo. The recognition of Somaliland by Somalia will pave the way for the recognition of Somaliland by IGAD countries, the AU and the UN. This is the new reality and a very positive one for Somalis in the Horn of Africa.

I concur with the empirical observations and assessment of AT&T in regards to the simmering conflict between the ONLF and AL-Shabaab. As to the genesis of the conflict, it was the ONLF that set in motion the senseless internecine bloodshed between the two armed groups whose common denominator is to remove the Habasha colonial yoke. Why should ONLF deny any other group (be they from the region or elsewhere) to fight against the Habasha in the Somali region? What happened to the doctrine of the enemy of my enemy is my friend? Owing to the narrow-clannish outlook of its leaders and due to the unaccommodating and non-inclusive literature of its body politics, the ONLF has unfortunately distanced itself from its natural power-base – the fraternal clan mosaic that had been the bedrock for all the pre-ONLF conflicts against the Habasha that the region’s Somalis had embarked upon in the recent and distance past. Regardless of what the ONLF and its diehard disciples argue, the region is the home of all Somali clans. All Somali clans – big or small – are represented in that beleaguered region! As is well known, the ONLF is in short supply of the manpower and resources needed to mount a vigorous and substantive armed struggle against the well-oiled military machine of the Habasha. Its leaders are yet to court and enlist the non-OG clans in the region. In my opinion, this unfortunate and ill-timed clashes with the Islamists will prove another strategic mishap and miscalculation on the part of the ONLF.

Regardless of his background, Indha Cade is right in saying Sheikh Sharif is a traitor, a conspirator and collaborator of the Ethiopia.