Warning: Another bloodbath in the coming By Kallacha Dubbi May 17, 2007 — Serious observers of the Ethiopian political panorama, especially the homegrown who can also do better reading of the Abyssinian psychic, are unanimous in that Prime Minister Meles is concocting ‘good’ reasons to wage another war against Eritrea. Movement of ground troops and political debates in the doomed Ethiopian parliament suggest that this war is very likely to follow the coming winter which also comes conveniently after the Ethiopian millennium, which has captured serious attention of the Prime Minister. It is unlikely Meles will go to war before such a big party although the millennium could be left for honeymoon of the postwar victory, if the victory can be assured. A number of reproach strategies have been adopted by Meles paving the ground for attack and grooming “logical” justifications for the possibility of a war. BLAME 1: AFAR In 2003, a group associated with the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, (ARDUF) issued a warning to foreigners not to enter the Afar region. In early March of 2007, ARDUF kidnapped a group of five Europeans and 13 Ethiopians in the Danakil depression, a remote region of the Afar people. The ARDUF indubitably admitted that it and no one else is responsible for the kidnapping. And yet, few days later, Reuter reported that “an Ethiopian administrator accused Eritrean forces of kidnapping” the group. A British newspaper followed quoting Ethiopian sources that the kidnapped tourists were taken “to a military camp near the Eritrean border.” Another reputed newsletter wrote that “five British citizens who were kidnapped in northern Ethiopia have been spotted at a military camp across the border in Eritrea, a senior Ethiopian official said.” By the end of the week it was common to read about “hostages held in Eritrean rebel camp.” In twisted propaganda notch, one newsletter went as far as telling its readers, that the Afars are almost all Sunni Muslims, as if this piece has to matter to rescue the victims. All of a sudden, the Eritreans were more at the center of the kidnapping news than the ARDUF, by design of the official Ethiopian media. Few cared to know the relevant, for example, that the ARDUF had kidnapped some Italian tourists as far back as in 1995, later releasing them, unharmed. Or the fact that it seeks freedom and liberty for the Afar people and that an earlier Afar rebel group, the Afar Liberation Front (ALF), fought against the Derg for 17 years. The thrust of the news ended with accusing Eritrea more than about liberating the Afar. BLAME 2: ****** On December 23, 2006, the ****** National Liberation Front, (ONLF) claimed to have attacked an Ethiopian column near Baraajisale heading to Somalia, destroying 4 of 20 vehicles, inflicting casualties and driving the convoy back. It also claimed another attack on Ethiopian soldiers on January 15, 2007 in Qabri-Dahar, Garbo, and Fiiq. Five Ethiopian soldiers and one ONLF rebel were reported killed. Many ONLF attacks have taken place on Ethiopian convoys, but the attack which included Chinese citizens is the only one the Western medias were interested in, inadvertently asking more attacks of worthy news. The attack on the Chinese camp took place in April, about seven weeks after the Danakil kidnap. A shoot-out occurred between Ethiopian soldiers guarding the Chinese exploratory group and the ONLF. Nine Chinese oil workers and 65 Ethiopians were killed. The front claimed full responsibility for the “rescue”, not an attack, but stated that the death of the Chinese or Ethiopians was not intentional. More of the same complains and charges ensued by the Ethiopian government as in the Danakil case. A serious Europe-based news media reported: “Ethiopia accuses neighbors of supporting an ethnic Somali rebel group that attacked a Chinese-run oil installation this week, killing 74 people.” Then, in a surprising reverse of the vector, the Christian Science Monitor suggested “there is a growing realization that Somalia’s increasingly brutal insurgency is starting to seep across the Horn of Africa”. This offered an impression, that the Somali insurgency against Ethiopia gave rise to the ****** movement. And yet the ONLF, created in 1984, surely predates the 2006 Ethiopian occupation of Mogadishu. AFP added the psychological score for Ethiopia reporting “Ethiopia on Wednesday accused arch-foe Eritrea of supporting the rebels behind an attack on a remote Chinese-run oil field that killed 74 people, including nine Chinese workers.” More uninformed commentary followed: “Ethiopian analysts say the unprecedented scale of the attack, claimed by the ONLF, suggested it could only have been carried out with support from Islamists in neighboring Somalia, who were routed by Ethiopian forces in a two-week, Christmas-time invasion. Some analysts see this as an indication that the battle for control of Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu is becoming a regional conflict.” One starts getting the impression that the ONLF is a result of Meles’ struggle against terrorism. What sophistication does it require to overwhelm badly trained and poorly armed of Ethiopian guards protecting unarmed Chinese, only the Christian Monitor knows. So again, even though ONLF seemed to have received more attention than the ARDUF, after all the West should not terribly dislike an attack against China, but Ethiopia is still compiling blames against Eritrea. I just saw a report on the ****** online, that the ONLF has captured Qalafe town in the Godey province of ******. I am certain Meles will blame Eritrea once again. BLAME 3: SOMALIA On April, 24 2007, Jendayi Frazer, the assistant secretary of state for African affairs, said that “Eritrea was the largest foreign backer of guerrillas who are fiercely resisting attempts by Ethiopia and the Somali government to pacify Mogadishu.” This paraphrased Ethiopia’s propaganda, that “Eritrea is fuelling the insurgency in Somalia in order to wage a proxy war against Ethiopia”. VOA and AFNEWS also reported that “Addis Ababa quickly accused Eritrea of starting a proxy war by backing both the ONLF and insurgents in Mogadishu. The government of Eritrea angrily denied the Ethiopian and U.S. accusations. By then Prime Minister Meles has transferred the ‘debate’ to the Ethiopian Parliament where a resolution was assured by the EPRDF majority, accusing Eritrea and OTHER groups for supporting Somali insurgents and ‘undermining’ Ethiopia’s peace mission in Somalia. The opposition in the doomed parliament debated long to remove the word “other” from the resolution, a reference to the banned Ethiopian opposition groups with connections to Eritrea. This is the first test of Meles to the Ethiopian parliament gauging the reaction to his war plan, and one can bet, that the vote in the parliament to declare open war against Eritrea would follow the same vote ratios – those who opposed the inclusion of “others” will also oppose the war, those who supported will also support the war, so a majority is guaranteed by the very birth of EPRDF. The test of the parliament was completed successfully, but then it was sham to start with. BLAME 4: OROMIA During a series of debates in the parliament preceding the Ethiopian army attack of Somalia, Prime Minister Meles listed his justifications for the attack. One of these justifications was the famous “third point”, the presence of “other” unfriendly forces in Somalia, a term used to refer to opposition forces including the OLF. Meles’ has repeatedly proven his willingness to cross a border hunting for opposition forces, the OLF in particular. He has crossed to Kenya, to Somalia, and - Eritrea as his next plan. On Tuesday this week, the Voice of Oromo Liberation announced that the OLF army entered and controlled for 3 hrs a small town of Bati in north eastern Ethiopia. This suggests that there is a growing pressure on the Tigrean domination of Oromia, a pressure that is sure to culminate on the shoulders of Meles. Indeed the report also said the OLF chased the regime’s representatives out of town and gave warnings to corrupted administrators. I have little doubt that Meles will once again blame Eritrea for the success of the OLF, even though the OLF’s official media has taken full credit of the small town mutiny. Alternately, Meles could simply keep quiet about it, it will not be the business of the international media after all - no foreigner is involved. BLAME 5: ERITREA It is to be recalled that the Boundary Commission delivered a final report on 21 March 2003 reaffirming its previous decisions, that “the delimitation decision was final and binding,” and that having made its determination it “could not receive further representations from the parties, that demarcation could only proceed on the basis of that decision”. This was precisely in line with Eritrea’s position and places the fault for the continued border tension on Ethiopia’s side. And yet the Ethiopian army still occupies the territory it lost by the Algier’s mediation which it went in to agreement willfully, signing to abide by the outcome. About 14 years later, the border is not demarcated, and Ethiopia continues to blame Eritrea for its own failure to abide by the international law. The Eritrean border is held hostage to submit Eritrea to Tigrean supremacy, and this alone provides Meles with his rational for a war against Eritrea, a war that is in the making. PRIME ALLY FOR THE WAR: USA In a recent Foreign Affairs article, John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen of the International Crisis Group argue that “Washington’s obsession with counterterrorism in Africa’s Horn is undermining efforts to bring stability to the region.” And Meles, a man with one of the worst human rights records, is now America’s ally in fighting terrorism. Ethiopia is investing heavily to swing on the “unti-terror” pendulum. On March 26, 2002, O’Dwyer’s PR Daily reported that "Ethiopia spent a whopping $5.6 million in lobbying fees/expenses at Verner, Liipfert, Bernhard, McPherson & Hand during the firm’s recent six-month reporting period". Just recently, Dick Armey, the Texas Republican and former House majority leader now works for a lobbying firm DLA Piper. Armey and DLA Piper registered with the Justice Department in June 2006 as lobbyists for the government of Ethiopia, at a price tag of $50,000 a month. In a sudden rise to African politics, a little known university professor named Peter Pham surprises Africanists and Ethiopiansts with a bold testimony in support of the Ethiopian regime as an expert, arguing in favor of Meles, on the grounds that the alternative would awash the Horn with terrorism. Alas, the extravagant reward for lobbyists paid off in a fashion paid on behalf of corporate America, scores a point for Ethiopia on the new DC front. The O’Dwyer’s PR Daily report specifically mentions that the group’s area of lobbying includes the conflict with Eritrea. GATHERING DIPLOMACY FOR THE WAR: MIDDLE EAST AND THE SUDAN In the middle of May, 2007 Prime Minister Meles visited Kuwait. Durig his visit, he and his Kuwaiti counterparts, Amir Sheikh Al Ahmed Al Jaber Al Sabah and the Prime Minister Sheikh Naser Mohammed Al Sabah “called for the unity and independence of Somalia and an end to violence.” The two leaders also “emphasized the need to resolve disputes between African nations through peaceful means.” The must be a calculated effort to neutralize the Arab support for Eritrea. Meles knows full well, that the same countries that supported and sustained the Eritrean struggle for over 3 decades may not allow it to fall under Ethiopia’s arms after independence. Sudan’s full or tacit support, a country that hosted the head-quarters of the Eritrean movements and transited all supports for the liberation struggle for those decades, must be critical. So, upon return, Prime Minister Meles also met with Sudanese Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein, and jointly declared that “multifarious cooperation between the governments of Ethiopia and Sudan has been growing.” I have a sense that the above complains were presented to the Sudan who has its own Darfur ax to grind, and need not be pressed much to submit. CONCLUSION The writing on the wall is clear and in bold. A war is in the making in the Horn, and it will be a brutal one, a vicious one, in which more than the previous 70,000 are to be killed. This war in the making in front of the worlds eyes, including the United States, a country that for now seems to stand by Ethiopia. US and Ethiopian relationships, especially when such relationship is sure to cause pain for the millions, should be revisted for the sake of innocent lives, if not sincere politics. This would be consistent with the humaniterean obligations of this great country. US has no business in interrogating “terror suspects in secret Ethiopian prisons”, when its own country reports reveal gross human rights abuses of Meles. As the New York Times objectively stated, the US should not look the other way when Ethiopia violats UN sanctions by purchasing arms from North Korea in prepartion for agression. Meles must be stopped from making another ****** and sadistic war.

Zenawi is losing a desperate battle in that region. His current adventures in Somalia will also add this. But the funny thing is that some sources say that he is planning a war against Eritrea( this winter).

@Baashi,which one of the following do deny: 1. Somaliland will not attend the reconcialition meeting. Nor will it recognise any decisions made in Muqdisho by the embaghati group? 2. Any one in armed opposition to the Ethiopian regime will not be allowed to attend the reconcialition meeting? 3. It is highly unlikely that any decision will be made to settle the Somaliland-Puntland border issue. Moreover, this issue can't be solved until the recognition issue of Somaliland and willingless to seccede is negotiated? This is how i understood the rest of your points, correct me if am wrong. 1. Sheikh Shariff should negotiate with Geedi because he negotiated with Caydiid. 2. The resistance is like an ant fighting against a Tigray elephant. Moreover, they are waging a losing battle against a might army of 40 000 Tigrays. Thus any attempt it is making is futile and they should come to the reconciliation meeting, this will sort everything out? 3. Anyone who supports the right of Somalis to resist against the internationally and Islamically recognized illegal invasion of Somalia is a warmonger? Again correct me if a wrong.

Quote:I can in all my honest tell yuo that all Somalis, except few, have supported this movement because of clan while many many more Somalis opposed simply because they thought to be the revival of the USC No, that is the way the clanish minded people think.

Willl anyone in armed opposition to the Ethiopian regime be allowed to attend the meeting? I forget they are all either on the run, dead or still fighting. Still the grand "reconcialition" meeting will a field day for the international media and Meles Zenawi. Many patriotic songs will be sung, lots of flag waving and the hugging of old warlords turned buddies. Other than that none of the things on Baashi's list seem reachable. Somaliland will not attend thus you can forget about that. Moreover no decisions will be made on Somaliland from Muqdisho. No Islamists or any other people in armed opposition to the occupation will attend a meeting which is guarded by Ethiopian troops. Of course i would love for to bea peaceful settlement and a withdrawl of foreign troops. However, i consider myself to be a realist and the situation on the ground tells me that force will be used to settle issues in Somailand. The T.F.G came to power by force and not negotiation. They are and have attempted to remove all their enemies by force. In other words, who are they going to do reconcialition with, when they have vowed to remove all those opposing them by force? Likewise the other side has from day one taken a firm stance on the presence of foreign troops inside Somalia.

Xamar, Dates are better yall should stick to eating dates especially peacenow.

Sharma'arke, Not all Zionists are Jews and not all Jews are Zionists. Infact, some orthodox Jews believe that they shouldn't return to the Palestine until their "messiah" returns.

How could compare Saddam Hussein or Ida Amin to this former spy and current puppet?

J.b, maybe Bakayle ma cuntaa? then we are sorry the products are no longer suitable, but a less strict vegetarian :confused: should enjoy our chocolate,"

http://www.japantoday.com/jp/news/406860

Looks like it's back to playing fancy dress![/b]

The British are special, the world knows it, in our innermost thoughts, we know it. This is the greatest nation on Earth. It has been an honour to serve it." They demand the elimination of Israel; the withdrawal of all Westerners from Muslim countries, irrespective of the wishes of people and government; the establishment of effectively Taleban states and Sharia law in the Arab world en route to one caliphate of all Muslim nations.

Where are his Jewish friends?

8. Islamists (their role - the name is for any party with political platform that advocates shari'a based constitution) 9. Foreign Troops (should we keep them until the trust between Somalis is restored – let’s discuss it plus replace Ethiopia with Muslim troops) You and I Know that this isn't going to happen!

More Zionist scaremongering!

Somalis probably send the highest amount of remittances back home more than any other group. People save up their benefit money to send back home. Actually, I was watching a programme about Somalis in Northern Kenya a while back on the B.B.C. The presenter took a group of local people to go and complain to their M.P, who they hadn't seen for six years.So the good old M.P, with his classical Somali stomach(no offense) and shirt greets them nicely along with the presenter. After a while, the presenter enquires why he hadn't done much to help these people and adressed their problems. The good old M.P becomes very irate and shouts at the presenter, " why are you brining politics here? The presenter replies " well because you are politician"? The M.P again agrily says " why didn't you bring people that support me.....they are all against me etc.....?. Then he told to me leave and exit his office. Of course the presenter was amused a politician could kick his constituents for "discussing politics"?lol There was another interesting exchange the presenter had a with a group of nomads, which i might share at a later time. @Bokero, why send a SOL cyber them, when i can see the suffering for myself live on Aljazeera coursey to Mohamad Addow ?Furthermore, woudln't this money be put to better use( feed people)?

Let me get this straight: 1.The U.S.A gave Shariff a walkey Talkey 2. He calls them from the Jungle to say rescue me. from the "extremists" when all the "extremists are with him". 3. Then when the U.S rescued him, he starts to call Aljazeera and declared Jihad. If he was a "stooge" then why did he turn his back on the U.S that saved him and started declaring Jihad on Aljazeera? Surely a coward or a stooge would be to frightened to anything when in custody? Furthermore, why didn't extremists kill him, when he asked the U.S.A to sace him? Or were they not there, when he made his secret little call to U.S.A. Lastly, if the U.S saved him and he was moderate and a fuley why did she put him back on the list? It looks like to me that Frazer is saying that she was played by the Sheikh? Duke, your are no position to declare people stooges or rubbish talkers. I remember you saying that you would never support Ethiopian invasion, that there was no Ethiopian troops in Somalia and even that there was 1000s of Eritreans and Oromos fighting in Somalia.

Originally posted by Emperor: ^Are you sure they are not the Somali civil war beneficiaries... You mean Mohamed Dheere, Qeybdiid, Yalahow, Hiraale and other warlords?

Roobleh, the T.F.G leadership isn't being replaced in June nor is it going anywhere.Ethiopia, Kenya and America have already chosen their best people to run somalia, they are, the Somali warlods and other clan adovocates. Thus no changes will be made to these project which has been in the works for years. The Ethiopians can't afford to stay in Somalia, due to high level casualties and other insurgencies waging in Ocadenia and Oromia. On the other hand they can't afford to leave because there are no African union troops arriving anytime soon.

@Peacenow, saxiib what load of bonkers mate. There are thousands of Somalis who are Muslims and hardworking. Infact the most hardworking people in Somali are the religious folks. They provide many services and have very good innovation skills. You have made another ridiclous and offensive statement, when you said: Quote:I don't live in the world of 'inshallah' where everything is god willing. No way. I take responsilbitly for my actions. Otherwise I wouldn't be where I'm today putting a suit everymorning, in a city (Milan) and country (Italy), where you will see no other black/dark skin person anywhere but delivering pizza or cleaning offices. What I do now has a bearing on my circumstances today, tommorow and the future there-after So African people are cleaners, pizzdeliverers and beggers in Milan because they live in the world of "Inshallah"? Whilst your different because your an enlightened folk( unlike the rest of us) all because you managed to get a job from a white man? What about the devout Somali Muslims, who graduate everywhere and work their *** of for white men? Working 9-6 for a white men and leaving the Islamic religion doesn't make you special nor does it make enlightened, just because you had some tough question from your philosophy teacher or read a little Darwin. Also i am still looking for an apology or explanation as to why your declared the Somalis(in Europe) as no good Arab-recrutied Suicide bombers? Care to explain?

But how will you know, when the perfect ppl arise?

Quote:The reality is if you do not use the power services Ethio is offering with the blessing of the US, someone else will and you will be marchinalised for a long time. And that is what you do not want to happen again. Cajiib walahi!

Cheap propoganda and lies, the Sheikh rejected their proposals many times.

seperation of religion and state i guess?

Quote:Somalis have been reduced to nothing more than serving as the foot soliders of arabs. When they need potential sucide bombers, they go to the Somali community, whether it be Australia, UK or US in the mosques where they go and they brainwash them. It is as if that is the only thing Somalis are good for. You have going on about Somalis apparently being put into chains by Arabs. But i think this is the most embarrasing attempt so far, I have seen you make yet to ridicule to Somali people. You have literally claimed that Somalis in the West are good for nothing except for being recruited by Arabs for suicide bombers. Not only is this a gross lie, it is a damning insult to the people who seem to be concerned about! You have labelled an entire group of people as no good Arab(slave) suicide bombers! At least come with evidence that Somalis are slaves other than this! As for Somalis worshipping Arabs, well there must millions of Indonesians, Pakistanis and other who must all be walking around in chains "waiting to blow themselves" on the orders of Arabs. As for Somali culture. Somalis are proud nationalistic people despite their problems. We are majority Muslim, but we have Gabays, Dhaantoos,Cuunto and Buraanburs. I bet you wouldn't even know the slightest thing about any of these(no offense) . Do you know anything about the poems of the late "Arab Slave/Worshipper" Sayid Muhammad Cabdullah Hassan and his 21 year struggle against the colonialists? Do you know of the liberation and the conquest of Abysnia by the "Arab slave" Imam Ahmad Gurey? Do you know of the Arabs worshippers who established the Gareen Dynasty, one of the largest Somali empires set up by a East African pastoralist group. Do you know of the Sheikh or the Chieftan at Geledi, who is said to have rivaled the power of the Omanis in East Africa, when he could call upon 20 000 tribesman? Do you know that Somali society was divided up into the Wadaads( religous people) and the Waranles( warriors). Young man Somalis went always in the this condition and you need to learn authentically about the Somali peoples history. I advise brother to also learn the Islamic history and the life of the Prophet Muhammad saw, as he was no Arabist or terrorist. Lastly, please please brother stop calling Somalis Arab Slaves, if anything this makes you look a man with an inferiority complex!