Haatu

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Everything posted by Haatu

  1. War niyow intee ku maqnayd all these years? I've supported every Somali government since Xukuumaddii Carta, even the despicable Yey regime. I am a unitarian and centralist after all. So it shouldn't come as a surprise to you I support the current regime in Xamar. Xaaji Xunjuf, Niyow yaan been laguu sheegin. There is no such thing as a D block. It is a fairy tale with no substance.
  2. Sayidka Soomaalida wuxuu yiri Alla ha u raxmadee: Ninka yidhi wax baan gani anoo, Gol iyo Cayn jooga Ee yidhi badii Garacad baan, gudub u weydaarin Godka lagu cadaabyow muxuu, go'uhu been sheegay. Midda naga qoslisay waa andacadii aad la soo shirtagtay ee ahayd Dawladda Soomaaliya ma xukunto hawada dalka. Taasna way noo wada caddaatay. As for Ethiopian it's obvious the Biixi regime entered closed door negotiations with the Xabashi to keep flights going and kudos to them. It's also obvious that Dawladda Soomaaliya has no power to refuse the Ethiopians irrespective of who controls the airspace. Which is why these Ethiopian flights are still probably being given landing instructions from Xamar despite the airspace being closed. But rag iska dhici yuusan cudur iyo hoog idiin keenin.
  3. Oodweyne, the "mujaahid" presented valid evidences for his views. Do you have any for yours?
  4. Cagjar is a useless stooge. I don't know why we expected him to be any different. He was handpicked by Abiy after all.
  5. The worst is when they report on a new or renovated building but all they show you is a politician cutting rope. I mean, why report on the building if you're not going to show us even one pic of the outside view let alone the interior? Who wants to see a politician cut rope? I'm tired of these useless journalists. Aqli ma laha most of them.
  6. War niyow meesha waa ku dhiiqowday ee wax isula har You made this thread thread out of spite so allow us to laugh at your expense.
  7. The other day I wrote about an economic blueprint for Somalia. Tonight I present Korea's excellent infectious disease mitigation strategies. The Koreans learnt from the MERS outbreak a few years ago. Let's hope Somalis can learn from this pandemic to put systems in place for the future. Key points: A centralised coordinated response with regional branches. This was provided by the Korea Centre for Disease Control. Testing, testing, testing. Korea tests 15,000 people a day. They've also set up drive-through testing booths. The ability to also analyse all these results efficiently. The ability to manufacture testing kits rapidly in the country. Very important. Rigorous contact tracing and quarantining. Stratifying positive cases based on severity: the high-risk patients with underlying health conditions are hospitalised, those with mild/moderate symptoms are kept in re-purposed public spaces where they are closely observed and isolated, those with the mildest symptoms allowed to self isolate at home. They receive a call twice a day to ensure they are sticking to their self isolation and to track their condition. This patient stratification prevents hospitals being overwhelmed. Those who recover are released after two negative tests. General nationwide social distancing. Large gatherings and events cancelled, the religiously observant advised to pray at home. So far the above measures seem to be working very well for Korea. It only reported 74 new cases today and the total death rate is 75. All this without needing to resort to draconian lockdowns.
  8. Read this article to learn more: Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success? WWW.SCIENCEMAG.ORG A scary brush with Middle East respiratory syndrome led the country to set up the world’s most expansive testing program for COVID-19
  9. Do the decent thing and give it up buddy. It's a filthy habit.
  10. Maanta waa maalin jimcee, hadalkayga aan wacdi ku soo koobo. عَنْ جَابِرِ بْنِ عَبْدِ اللهِ ، قَالَ : قَالَ رَسُولُ اللهِ صلى الله عليه وسلم:أَيُّهَا النَّاسُ ، اتَّقُوا اللهَ ، وَأَجْمِلُوا فِي الطَّلَبِ ، فَإِنَّ نَفْسًا لَنْ تَمُوتَ حَتَّى تَسْتَوْفِيَ رِزْقَهَا ، وَإِنْ أَبْطَأَ عَنْهَا ، فَاتَّقُوا اللهَ ، وَأَجْمِلُوا فِي الطَّلَبِ ، خُذُوا مَا حَلَّ ، وَدَعُوا مَا حَرُمَ.
  11. This idea is for how to industrialise the country once it has a modicum of stability. Securing one site on the outskirts of Mogadishu and a road that leads to the port is within the governments capability if it puts its mind to it. As for Rwanda and Ethiopia not succeeding, then Rwanda is following a different model, one that relies on Foreign Direct Investment not locally developed industries. This approach will help the country out of poverty, but it will stagnate in the medium term, just like Thailand. Ethiopia used to follow this develpmental approach I described above. Unfortunately for them, the architect of the plan and the only one who understood it was Zenawi and he died whilst the plan was in its infancy. As a side point, the father of the Korean Economic Miracle Park Chung Hee also died before he could realise his dream of fully industrialising Korea. Luckily for the Koreans, the dictator after him understood the plan and continued. Ethiopia's distators after Zenawi didn't and the current fool is actually undoing it. As for the rest of your naysaying, then wax ka soo qaad ma leh. Markuu hankaaga hooseeyo oo Reer Hebel iska celintii uun aad ku taamto, then of course lofty ideals will seem unrealistic.
  12. The cultural argument against development has been thoroughly debunked. All agricultural societies possess backward traits before they industrialize. It is the industrialisation process that makes them more efficient, punctual etc. The British in the late 19th century considered the Germans lazy, inefficient and stated they would never amount to much. Today, German efficiency and engineering prowess is well known. Read Ha Joon Chang's fantastic book, Bad Samaritans. In particular read the chapter he talks about cultural traits and how they supposedly influence industrialisation. All nations go through civil wars. The Chinese Warring States civil war lasted over 300 years. Non-stop warfare, states declaring independence, you name it, they had it. It makes our 30 year civil war seem like a trifle.
  13. There's plenty more so stay tuned for the subsequent parts.
  14. Secondly, once the industrial complex is established, the government should encourage local large businesses that have a proven success record (not start ups) to open Textile Factories in the industrial park. These local companies are then to enter into technology transfer agreements (not joint ventures) with large foreign large textile companies (plenty in China and Turkey). The foreign company will provide all the machinery and tools required by the factory, engineers and technicians to help run the factory and train local engineers and technicians, and most importantly marketing for the production of the factories. In return, the foreign company gets a yearly royalty (paid in dollars) and a percentage of all sales. Getting access to foreign markets should not be too difficult as Somalia is eligible for programmes such as the Everything But Arms programme that allows tariff free access for the exports of poor countries. We can also target African countries and the Middle East. This method is how Bangladesh was able to start its successful textile industry in the late 70s when a single company called Desh entered into such an agreement with a large Korean company called Daewoo. Today, Bangladesh earns billions from this industry. Read here for Bangladesh's remarkable story: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/661218?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents The government in return will give local companies special low cost long maturity loans to the local factories located in this industrial complex. This will help them with their start up costs and paying for wages etc (it will take the local companies time to learn how to run the factories efficiently and turn a profit). The government will also provide free rent, water and electricity and tax benefits for the first 5 years. It will also provide these companies priveleged access via special accounts through the Development Fund to get the dollars these companies need to pay for the technology licenses and royalties, and imports needed to manufacture the textiles. These companies based in the industrial park will have zero rated import tax and port duties on all goods that go into exports via a bonded warehouse system (basically in a local company spends 1 million shillings in import taxes and port duties on dyes from turkey, they will be reimbursed this money once they export the goods those dyes were made into and they provide a proof of export). In return for all this support, every company based in the industrial park will have to meet rigorous export targets. For example, after 1 year each company will have to export a certain figure (in dollars) and say 75% off all production output has to be destined for export, not the Somali market. The targets will change on a yearly basis as the local companies get better and better. Any company that fails to meet these stringet targets will lose all the perks they get (rent will "suddenly" go up, loans and taxes will become due, and the water and electricity company will begin charging at high rates). They will soon go out of business and will be bought out by the successful companies left (who will continue receiving all the perks as long as they keep meeting the targets). This prevents lacklustre 'fadhiid' companies continuing to benefit at the public's expense. Winners will be rewarded and losers culled. This is business not child's play. I call this system Siyaasadda Koolkoolinta Shirkadaha Cardunka ah. Koolkoolin means to nurture, and cardun is a small infant tree that still hasn't matured enough to produce fruits, it requires watering and protection from the wind and goats. Likewise infant industries, like our hypothetical textile industry here, requires support and protection from international competition until the industry matures and is able to withstand the competition. But these industries will only 'grow up' if you support them and protect them. The barometer to measure this growth are the export targets. This focus on exports avoids the pitfalls of Import Substitution Industrialisation as was seen in many developing countries in the 70s and 80s such as much of Africa and Latin America. This is known as Export Promotion. The only countries that did this were Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and nowadays China. You can see which countries were successful and which ones weren't. Once this is done and the companies start exporting, the dollars will begin flowing in. This is a vital period as the government must impose Foreign Exchange Controls to prevent these hard won dollars being squandered on luxury consumption by this new elite (or stashed abroad in houses in Dubai). These funds will then be recycled mostly into the companies in the industrial complex to upgrade their equipment, systems etc. to increase capacity, quality, and their share of the international market. Some funds will also be used for social programmes and national infrastructure. For those that disagree with this, remember these companies only became successful because they were given scarce funds that the Somali people were deprived of in their time of need. So they have no right to spend this wealth they 'earned' however they please.
  15. One of the biggest problems currently facing the country is a lack of industrialised output and by extension foreign exchange. This chronic lack of foreign exchange is one of the reasons the government is so reliant on the so-called 'Beesha Lixaad' or International Community. This also means the government is unable to buy arms on the black market (to bypass the arms embargo) as countless state and non-state entities are able to do. When you live off donations, you must be able to show where those funds were spent. This means the armed forces stayed underdeveloped and the security situation remains insecure. One way out of this is to rapidly establish industries in a cheap and easy manner to generate the much needed dollars the government needs to rebuild the country and institutions. Notice, I say we need the industries first before we can begin rebuilding the country. It might sound counter-intuitive but allow me to continue. Firstly, the government needs to establish one large industrial complex on the outskirts of Mogadishu, somewhere in between Afgooye and Xamar. This industrial complex will have its own water and electricity supply as well as all the warehouses needed. The power station for this industrial complex will only supply power to the factories and buildings housed in the complex and will not be connected to the national grid. Likewise the water supply. The reason is simple, the government simply can't afford to give power and water to the country. The people can wait for the dollars to come before expecting social services. Neighbouring Ethiopia recently built an Industrial Complex on the outskirts of the capital for $200 million so we can assume this complex to cost around that figure. How will the government afford that? The answer is two-fold. We need a Somali Shilling budget and a Dollar Budget. The Somali Shilling budget will cover the cost of the local labour and any material that can be sourced locally. Where will the Somali Shillings come from? The government has two avenues: one is the Japanese system of Abenomics. Simply put, this is where the government prints bonds for a certain sum of money. The central bank then buys off the bonds from the Japanese government in exchange for Japanese Yen which the central bank simply prints (it has the power to do so and does). The government then uses the Japanese Yen for whatever purpose it needs and pays the interest on the bonds to the Central Bank when required. The Central Bank then deducts its costs from the income it receives from the government interest (literally admin costs and the cost of the printing, i.e. peanuts) and then transfers the profits back to the Japanese Treasury as the Japanese Government owns the central bank. You can see how the Japanese government massively benefits from this sleight of hand and why the Japanese economy has been doing so well under Abe. This system is currently being used by both parties in the Libyan civil war to fund their governments and armies. The other way is the Chinese way. When China needs Chinese Yuan to fund infrastructure development or local industries, it simply borrows from government owned banks who magically create the Chinese Yuan on their books and lend to the government at very very low interest rates (much much lower than normal commercial banks in the West). The government then builds the infrastructure it needs and then pays back the loan (over a very long term) from the proceeds (toll charges etc.) and after a while the government just writes off the debt and non-performing loans. This is how China has been able to afford all the amazing infrastructure that country has built in the last 20 years. Doesn't this cause inflation? No, no it doesn't. Despite monetising 50% of government debt the Japanese are still struggling with deflation, not inflation. As Keynes said, as long as there's demand printing money won't cause inflation. Read more about the Chinese and Japanese systems here: https://ellenbrown.com/2019/07/10/how-to-pay-for-it-all-an-option-the-candidates-missed/#more-14224 So the government has the Shillings to pay for the local labour and materials, but where will it get the dollars to pay for the foreign engineers and materials that will be required to build this industrial park? The answer is to introduce a new Development Tax on Xawaaladaha. The proceeds from this tax should go in a special Development Fund that will be exclusively used to fund this industrialisation and nothing else, come rain or shine, abaar iyo aaran, not a penny is to be spent on anything else, even on relief food. With billions coming into the country via remittances every year even a small 5% tax will easily pay for this project and many more.
  16. Xaaraan quutaha mujrimka ah ee badda wadankiisa gatay in hadal laga dhagaysto maba aha. Once the country is stable he should be one of those tried for treason. Him and the fake Sheikh Mundul president of his. Either that or they should be tried for incompetence. Labadaas mid uun bay xaajadooda u dhici. So it comes as no surprise he is against the rebuilding of XDS. He is after all a foreign agent.
  17. Onwards and upwards. Next Bu'aale and Gaalkacyo. Kala qoqob waqtigiisa waa laga gudbay. Fad ama fadin, waa lagu fadsiin.
  18. This was a decisive victory for the Somali Republic (the federal thing is a myth). Despite what the political spinners on here might assert, the Somali government has proved itself against the pseudo-independent states. Now it needs to prove itself in asymmetric warfare against Al Shabaab which is a whole different ball game.
  19. Galmudug down, Gedo on lock. Just the pirates to go. Isjira.
  20. I was reading a document the other day on the number of times the Hajj has been cancelled in Islamic history. Of the roughly 20 or so times, half was due to disease and the plague. The other half was due to the Shia attacking and killing pilgrims and cutting the roads. They even stole the Black Stone once and kept it for 20 years. Nimanka waa kuwaa. Gaal in ay kaa daafacaan iska illow, aday kuu jeedaan.
  21. Baadida waa la helay, intee laga helay waa hadalbadni. Saddexda nin ee walaalaha ah hadday heshiiyeen, waa in la bogaadiyo oo tusaalahooda lagu daydo. Waa loo yeeriyay iyo ayaga kamuusoo fulin waa hadaltir aan loo baahnayn. Reer Galmudug oo saddexdaas isaga dhow intaas baa 30 sano laga la' yahay. Reer Khaatumana waa la mid. Illeen ceeb looma dhinto.
  22. Niyow geel baa loo heesayay ee goroyadan aad u heesayso maxay? Qabyaaladda iyo qurunka aad nimanka kale isku haaysatiin ani waxba igama gelin. Laakiinse, waxaan hadda ka hor la macaamilay shirkaddan ragga hoggaanka u hayana macrifaan u leeyahay. Marka waxaa i dhibtay in la haaraama oo wax aanan ku ogayn lagu sheego. Waa tuu Sayidka yiri: Mustaqiimnimaa loo hadlaa, muranku waa ceebe Nin waliba maroor iyo qasiyo, muran haduu keeno Goortii markhaatigu dhacaa, mowdku ka adeegi. Marka xukuumadda Biixi caddayn ha keento ama Islaamka ha nabadgeliso. Adigana waxaan kugula talin lahaa, waad jubbaatayee in aad laablakaca iska dayso oo aad si degan wax u qiyaasto sida saaxiibkaa Tillaabo, illeen guulwadaynta waa laga fiican yahaye. Mise yaabayee, aftahannimada aad ewel taajka u sidatay, oo aad surankan ku soo bandhiggi jirtay, oo aan kugu qabsaday ayaad saluugtay?
  23. Reer NFD dhib uma arkaan in dhulkooda laga ganacsado oo faa'iido laga raadsado, maxaa wacay nin walba irsaaqadiisa way qoran tahay, shilin kastoo loo qorayna wuu heli. Xin iyo xumaan midna uma hayaan ganacsatada xoogooda oo xalaasha ah quudanayaan. Xaasha ee nin libin kaa xistiyey xumihii waa yaabe. As for kutirikuteenta marfashyada aad la soo shirtagtay, caddayn ma aha, shirkad meeqaanka Xaas oo kale lehna xa kama goynayso. Waa tuu gabyaagii yiri: Muxuu cay dameer igaga dhimi, wayska ciyayaaye!
  24. Hass (pronounced Xaas by the way, not Haas), is the biggest oil and gas distributors in East and Central Africa. They have operations and dominate in multiple countries in the region from Kenya to Zambia, Congo, Tanzania, Uganda etc. They are no small fry and the Somaliland market is just a small slice of their empire. These guys are above petty Somali squabbles and jabhadayn. Suldaanka and the good Minister would do well to visit these guys' HQ in Nairobi. Ayagoo hees kale heesayaan ayay soo noqon lahaayeen. But what's really going on here in the Biixi administration trying to strong arm big business in Somaliland. They tried it with Dahabshiil and now they're trying their luck with Hass