How will this effect Ukraine?

He still has a chance, but needs to put his tower high ego aside that is blocking him from seeing potential political discourse. The pathway to the Presidency is no easy pathway, and specially in Somaliland it’s not a matter of being crowned by a kingmaker or special interest group as the Professor initially thought. He needs to build coalitions and make deals, and take risks. It’s not the same as Mogadishu where you can fly in from the States and be crowned a day later because you rubbed the right kingmakers, no he needs to work for it and let go of the idea of seeking approval and applauses for that will break him, as he has seen by now.

I understand he has been led on, thinking that he could have his party elected and within a year run for President. But this was not according to the original timetable where first the Presidential would take place and then the political parties, which would have meant he would have anyway waited years to get to the Presidency and now that both elections are taking place simultaneously one is back to that same schedule with a delay. So his objections at this stage are not even legally or politically justifiable. He should have complained last year when the elections for the Presidency were being extended without any justification, and messing up the complete political machine incl delaying the politics parties for another two years. Furthermore, it seems he is so focussed on the Presidency that he is forgetting that his party has an actual good chance of getting elected to become part of the party system. He came this far, and thus should focus on getting his party elected and pushing Kulmiye and UCID out of the system who both fear his party. But it seems he is being incited or letting himself to be detracted, in order for him to throw away the baby with the bathwater. Not very smart

https://www.facebook.com/GuuleedCunnaabi/videos/668975338517484/?app=fbl Galbeedi, Whats going on with the Professor?

I don’t think it’s the way to become a functioning state, expulsion of all sorts of groups from your territory is a one way ticket to becoming a Balkanised state involved in constant ethnic turmoil and conflict. Look at Kosovo and Serbia still engaged in conflict, even 20 years after separation. Also we are Africans next to tribes we have clans, surely the risk of inter-Oromo clan tensions for dominance might ignite once the devil of division, expulsion and entitlement has been let loose.

You will need to explain that one, Puntland as defender of the rule of law.

Yes, and logic would dictate that one replaces majority of the senior officials and advisors since the complete and utter political failures on all fronts. But for some reason one hasn’t fired a single of the officials, except for the Minister of Sports who got replaced.

Doesn’t promise much for the future then. I read this article on a donut shaped city they planned around Addis suburbs. Not sure what to think of, and what it says about Oromia’s belief in the future of Ethiopia. Opposition to Oromia megacities echoes Ethiopia’s master plan turmoil

So far the Garaads leadership have shown to act as a real authority, keeping their intentions and objections clear and consistent. We can’t say the same from the SL leadership, it’s still not clear where they stand and what their intentions and directions are. Not only with regards to SSC but the rest of the country. Those committing murders in Gacan Libaax, Ali Sahid and Elafweyn are enjoying impunity, while the on the other hand one swears revenge for Las Anod. It doesn’t add up.

What we have been seeing in the last months are rather the effects, the causation started much earlier with the assumptions, calculations and actions that have shaped and driven SL governments directions over the last years which have come to a blown not caused but rather ignited by the SSC uprising. And the main factor in this causality I would say is the following wrong assumption one has made; The social contract on which Somaliland governments authority and stability is outdated, as the government is now all powerfully and can control the country, and does not need to strive towards inclusion and equity between the clans. And also along this line of thinking one assumed that SSC community can’t go nowhere as they don’t want to join Puntland and can’t become a federal state, and with military force you can keep control of the region, and thus there is no need to give special consideration and enter in to a political agreement with the community. Remember on the 8th January 2018 when Somaliland forces took control of Tukaraq and thereby reaching the ‘border’, well this was just a month after this government took office, and this further reinforced that military force was sufficient to control region and there is no need for a genuine political agreement with the community. So this thinking started much earlier and were expressed in all actions of the regime, while the patience expressed by the people and different communities, was not taken at face value but rather seen as a reinforcement of the own assumptions, thinking, further confirming the above mentioned narratives. And it’s also this self constructed false belief of the own power that led to further elite capture in the economy, nepotism, oligopolisation and thus concentration of wealth in the hands of few. Further leading to loss of trust, economic stagnation and political/communal polarisation, of which we seeing now the full extends.

I am not up to date on the under currents of the politics can cant really speak on, for that I have to take your insights in to this. However, I know that the political deal is shaky, with so far no concrete legal pathways to support elections as agreed in this political deal. And as you also stated, the current elites might put own individual ambitions above any compromise or common interest if that would mean transferring power. Additional factor complicating things is that it’s not all about politics, but above all about economic interest and we have not seen any indication that one is ready to address the discourse, inequalities that have fueled the bleak economic future outlook and thus much of the tension, polarization and discontent.

What’s that plan exactly?

As usual one is barking up the wrong tree. I don’t think Somaliland is necessary wrong for seeing Museveni as a potential mediator able to facilitate diplomatic talks, as he is the most senior of African leaders and nestor of Statesman. And seeking solutions closer to the region, is much better instead of far away countries like Norway, Sweden or Switzerland. However, before approaching Museveni and other leaders and countries from the region, Somaliland if it’s really serieus about talks with Somalia to resolve things, should be first sending envoys(Ergo) to Mogadishu, Garowe, Baidoa, Kismayo, Beletweyn, Adado and to wherever Somalia’s political leaders concave, and try to listen, understand, build relations and convince their views and arguments to those that are able to influence Somalia’s position. And only then if and when all efforts and means have been exhausted to directly resolve things, think of approaching those closest in the region.And we are far away from this point, as non of their officials have set foot in Mogadishu or really made effort to listen to those they want to convince. So not only is one barking up the wrong tree, but also putting the car before the horse. Lastly, it’s not the first time the Ugandan President points Somali’s to their delusions and tells it like it’s.

Somalia is the only country in the world that picks people from the streets to work in foreign affairs department and its embassies as diplomats, the same way they select and appoint janitors in the Hamar government offices. The only difference being the suits and selfies. No wonder that Jubbaland, Puntland and every land chooses to manage their own external relations and affairs, as Somalias foreign service doesn’t add anything to the equation anyway. @MMA, I hope all the dirt of these Embassies becomes public, till one is convinced to have a proper and professional foreign service.

So typical, Somali’s closest cousins. Now I understand why Somalis neighbouring Oromos inject so much emotion emotional bullshit in to politics without rationality. Wada cadifiin bila caqliya, uff.

One is assuming too quickly that these fires have been intentionally lighted. I have issue with this for two reasons, one is ignoring fate(Qadar) and second one is excluding perhaps the most rational of reasons that could play a role, such as climate change. So wondering to what extend the changing climate(increasing temperatures), crowding of urban and market spaces, increased quantity of products present(material wealth?), more electric and inflammable materials (bad quality) present, and bad electrical wiring play could perhaps have played a bigger role? Those familiar with Somali markets, could perhaps shine a light at the trends and changes they have observed over the years. And perhaps it would be good to look at the trends in markets in similar countries with hot arid climates who also have unregulated and informal markets. After all increasing temperatures and heat waves have caused an increase in wild fires all over the world, and perhaps markets are at most risk in Somalia, whereas in other countries it’s forests, grass lands, or suburban neighborhoods that are at risk.

This is cat and mouse game has been going for more then 15 years, and as long as we don’t understand why youngsters are choosing to join AS and what motivates people to go extreme lengths such as suicide bombings, one can’t really solve the symptoms neither eradicate the issue. I am not underwriting the importance of the hard working soldiers and intelligence people, but if it was only a matter of more guns, more soldiers, more training and powerful intelligence with more resources then one would have solved it by now. One needs to have a complete picture of the motivates in order to address the issue, and one shouldn’t be to simplistic in thinking there is only one motivate or driving factor, its more likely that its a complex web of dozens of different factors, motivates and underlying issues playing a role. But surely one can dedicate a team of 20 analytical people to map this out and distill to come up with workable solutions and recommendations to address the issue and underlying factors. Surely this isn’t too much to ask as one also delicates thousands of people to work in soldiering and thousands to work in other sorts of offices that hardly can even operate properly due to the security issues. Not saying this is a task for the security sector, but rather a responsibility of the politicians to have 20 people dedicated to understanding and dealing with AS, and coming up with solutions and measures across the board that are beyond security but rather are political and socio-economical in nature.

Seems the Oromo’s don’t have much of a political direction or strategy, if they continue look like this they might unite everyone against them. Ileyn nimanku waa iska Somali oo kale

How so, isn’t this about federalism? And even if Jubbaland goes ahead with this, their representative should work within the scope of the Embassy and collaborate with Embassy officials. Anything else should be regarded as a silent form of secession and dismantling of Somalia’s sovereignty. Diplomatic row looms after Jubaland appoints envoy to Kenya HIIRAAN.COM The decision by Jubaland State of Somalia President Ahmed Mohamed Islam to appoint an envoy to Kenya has caused controversy as the...

It seems this is the new fault line between Northern and Southern Ethiopians. Oromo will have to wake up and smell the coffee, their so called alliance with Amhara’s is dead end and also Amhara’s will need to change their relations with Tigray as they can fight on two fronts.

Gedo, Hiiraan, Banadir and SSC, are these the contenders to become recognized states?

Shacabka make more sense then most politicians.

You don’t think he will get sub-clan protection of sorts.

The fate of SSC and Somaliland region and people ia inseparable interconnected and intertwined with one another. And at the same time no amount of violence, guns and casualties can enforce it nor prevent the connectedness, the sooner everyone realizes that the easier it will be to embark on a common path.