Abdiqadir Jirde, one of the few last sensible politicians in Somaliland.

Galbeedi, everyone knows that Ethiopia’s current eyes are on Assab, and strategicly it makes sense. But if Eritrea becomes subjugated to Ethiopia, what do you think this could mean for the region, Djibouti and Somaliland and Ethiopia's further aspirations. Listen here to Abdiqadir Jirde talk about Ethiopia's historic aspiration for coastal areas, from 12.48min on. Personally I do hope for a more voluntrary and gradual process of political and economic integration of the Horn of Africa countries, but this far removed from the Empire aspirations and talk of annexation.

This is quite strategic, also getting Afar on board gives Ethiopia quite some strategic leverages in the broader region, incl Djibouti.

Yes, Somaliland politicians have miscalculated things in their political narratives and thinking, and Abiys remark have led to a political shock wave and fierce debate. I don’t think Ethiopia will come anytime soon to Zeila or any coastal areas in Somaliland. Besides area between border and Zeila is highly mountainous, making movement very difficult and warfare easier for defending side. Also any attempts to take coastal areas will definitely trigger a United front, supported by Eritrea, Djibouti and perhaps even Egypt. But nevertheless, the sheer possibility being raised, and Ethiopian PM contemplating on this has already caused a political shock wave.

Kudos to Puntland women politicians for rocking the boat.

An Oromo empire and their political cohesion is only feasible in hostile environs and conflicts with neighbours, so perhaps their leaders want to trigger that structural hostile fault lines with neighbours as a way to ensure that strong and United Oromo nation.

I assume that this is discussed under some sort of devolution reform or re-organisation of lower levels of governance. Moving from provincial regions to counties, as Kenya has done, and that also other regions would be split in to sub-regions and not only Somali region? Either way, for the Somalis this would be a disaster as no lower level sub-regions could ever maintain or advocate for the socio, cultural and identity concerns that are distinct for the Somali nation in Ethiopia. I think some clans might welcome the proposition, as they have felt abused and mistreated initially under Abdi Ileey and now many might feel marginalised under O-folks bickering and competition. Under O-folks this plan should trigger alarm bells as they have the most to loose and would make it easier to counter their political influence in smaller regional units, even though some narrrow thinkers might look at the ‘state’ fragmentation in Somalia as an example to emulate, and think this plan would be in their benefit. The Somali region really needs to pre-emptively counter this. I think we said before that Cagjar needs to create or support space that gives academics, thinkers and progressive leaders (independent and outside of the party and state structures) a platform to discuss, reflect and strategize on the future of the region and Somali people in Ethiopia. This would need to have a strong and divers O-folk contingency with other clans also represented, irrelevant of their political association and opposition views. Perhaps this plan for fragmentation of the Somali nation might be the right impetus or prequisite for such a discourse for thinkers inside and abroad to concern themselves more with the future of the region.

Che, as SOLs Ethiopian whisperer or Expert, how would different Ethiopian communities stand if the choice was between fighting, annexing and gaining sea access if choice is between Eritrea vs Somali Lands. Do you think Oromos would be more inclined for gaining access to the Sea in Somali Lands rather then Eritrea, and how about Tigray and Amhara’s? I know a lot of factors would play a role, but just curious to understand where communal motivations and potential drivers lay in terms of regions.

This is a scenario that very few of the narrow minded Somali leaders have held for possible, that a day might come in which external military could pose a threat against their sovereignty. As they made it quite easy for Ethiopia to potential capture without effort any part of the country. As they have welcomed Ethiopia military bases and presence across the country, and worst of all they have created a politics of enmity between one another, making it very difficult to come together as they have started seeing eachother as political enemies instead of political opponents that can set their differences aside under certain circumstances. Abiy’s call might be a wake up call for Somalis and their leaders, and so we reverse this politics of enmity and extreme polarisation, for tomorrow might come a day one might need on another.

https://youtu.be/9dq4m-4gPvY?si=NfomBRjAfFVCAswG

You still haven’t the question and discrepancy here. Why include those form outside the region and exclude those from the region.It doesn’t make much sense.

Galbeedi, Irrelevant of what any Somali says, on whatever administrative subdivisions is devised by Somalis for local governance and wether one call these States, Provinces, Districts, Counties, etc, at the end of the day nobody is moving and everyone will remain in the same place and localities with the same neighbouring clans and communities, who will have the same development/ poverty issues, and societal challenges with clannism and inequality. Even though devolution or decentralised is positive, but just saying don’t expect sudden miracles as it won’t solve the chronicles problems.

I don’t think the issue is about funds for the road infrastructure itself, reer Awdal were actually the first community decades ago to mobilize funds and build the main road from Kalabaydh to Dilla/ Borama. Think the issue is about strategic (clan) access or economic control of the main road to Ethiopia. But you are right we don’t the know exact details of the road and issue at hand. And the issue can get out of hand and might fuel tension if not addressed sooner then later.

Hence why Gedo won’t settle as long as those injustices continue, and why neither Jubbaland will be able to excerpt any control beyond Kismayo surroundings. I came across the lists of ministers in Jubbaland it’s really a far cry from the aim that Somalia adopted a federal system, and kinda explains why these states will never become feasible, as they are emulating occupying forces rather as representative bodies. the Irony is that Siyad Barre folks while having more seat in Jubbaland then all the other non-Dar*** together, are still not on board with Jubbaland project and neither does Jubbaland exercise control over their localities. As long as the basis of the representation is based on inequality and inequity, governance and stability won’t materialize. Jubaland leader unveils cabinet dominated by his clan WWW.KEYDMEDIA.NET The leader has been holding power for almost 8 years since the establishment of Jubaland....

But the question is how would that federalism look like, so far we haven’t gotten past the point of clans dressing up as states without states actually exercising control over their territories nor representing the people and localities they claim. The point I was making is that the states so far have not shown or portrayed having any inclination for their regions specific ‘realities’, ‘ways’, ‘customs’, ‘values’ and ‘norms’. But are more vehicles for personal power grap and for those leaders to get a pie of the national cake. You haven’t addressed that point. If we recognize the importance of traditional elders for the stability of the system, why not define and specific their roles while designing the system and you’re at it. it might have been written down but does it mean that there is a coming agreement or understanding on the process, Hence why since 2012 it’s been impossible to finalise the constitution. My point is that one doesn’t need only a smart person to write down whatever on paper, but you need a genuine inclusive consultation process that takes in to account the context specific realities, issues and values for it to be a workable basis for a system of governance.

That doesn’t make much sense, I don’t think Mudug has even a border with SSC, unless you plan to annex Hawd region of Ethiopia in to SSC. Second, it doesn’t answer if Maakhir is integral part of SSC or they are not, thirdly reer Nugaal and Sool have a clear alienated border both provincially and clan wise as well. And above all, it goes against everything federalism should be standing for having an authority closest to the people it’s representing and it’s local realities, and when u have a federal state and you stuff it with clansman from other regions wouldn’t that defy the very essence of federalism. It would have made more sense if you said we will include representatives of the HJ, HY, Ay*, UgaasL* and Gab** and others who are native to SSC regions.

I get it, decision making is under deliberations. And what do u think personally would be the best or ideal course of action for SSC-Khaatuma trajectory?

Galbeedi what’s this issue exactly about and what consequences or impact does it have on people? And how long has this been known or been in pipeline.

Axmed Muumin Seed oo ka Dayriyay Dhaqdhaqaaqyo Guracan oo Xukuumaddu ka wado Wajaale by Qaran News | Oct 20, 2023 Axmed Muumin Seed oo ka Dayriyay Dhaqdhaqaaqyo Guracan oo Xukuumaddu ka wado Wajaale Hargeysa(Qaran news)-Siyaasiga Axmed Muumin Seed ayaa ka dayriyay dhaqdhaqaaqyo guracan oo xukuumaddu ka wado magaalada Wajaale oo ay horumarka kagala dagaalayso muwaadiniin qaar kalena xuquuq dheeraad ah ku siinayso. Sudaasna wuxuu ku sheegay qoraal uu soo saaray oo u qornaa sidan:- “Walee Wajaale Waxa Ka Soo Socdiyo Wabiga Yaa Weyn Wajaale warka ka soo yeedhayaa ma wanaagsana, damiirka uma wanaagsana, dawladnimada uma wanaagsana, dadnimada uma wanaagsana, damaceena dal-madaxbanaan ahna uma wanaagsana. Wajaale xukuumadu waxa ay ka wadaa qorshe ay ku weecinayso jidkii laamiga ahaa ee Barbara corridor ee hore Survey-ga loogu sameeyay, kaas oo lagu waday in uu maro Waqooyiga magaalada, isaga oo markaas 4km oo kaliya ku gaadhi lahaa badhtama Wajaale & Xuduuda Ethiopia, waxana ay xukuumadu geed dheer u fuushan tahay sidii ay jidkaas ugu leexin lahayd dhinaca Koonfureed ee Wajaale, taas oo markaa jidka ka dhigaysa mid masaafo dhan 10km oo jihada Koonfureed ah ku gaadhaya Wajaale iyo xuduuda Ethiopia. Waa habdhaqan ku dhisan talo guracan, waa kala-godobsasho iyo xad-gudub badheedh ah in ay xukuumadu is hortaagto wado 4km ah oo dhex-maraysay beeraha iyo dhulka dad muwaadiniin ah, iskuna qaawiso sidii ay jidkaas uga leexin lahayd majarahiisa iyada oo u leexinaysa dhinaca beero kale oo ay leeyihiin muwaadiniin kale oo ay xukuumadu isku qancisay in ay dadka kale ka xaq iyo xuquuq badan yihiin. Dabcan, qorshahaas waa mid aan laga fiirsan, waa mid god-dheer ku ridaysa kalsoonidii lagu qabay in beelaha ku somaliland wax wada yeelan karaan. Waa mid mugdi iyo kala aamin bax u horseedaya bulshada, soona cimri-dadajinaya himiladeena ah helitaanka dal la wada leeyahay, loona siman yahay qaybsiga khayraadkiisa. Xaalka sidaas ah waxa uu waajibinaya in masiirkeena wax wada lahaasho la iska waydiiyo su’aasha ah “side ayaa dawladnimo & khayraad loola wadaagi karnaa dadka iyo xukuumada is huwan ee 4km oo jid ah u quudhi la’ dad ay wax isku darsadeen? Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxa aan shacabka reer Somaliland ugu baaqaya in ay amniga ilaashadaan, sidoo kalena waxa aan xukuumada ugu baaqayaa in qorshahaas shaydaan ay faraha kala baxdo, jidkaasna u dayso tubtii hore loogu sahmiyay, kana shaqayso danta guud iyo maslaxada dadka degaanka Wajaale ee ay kala godobsanayso. Eebe Ha Idin Waafajiyo Talada Wanaagsan.”

I partly disagree with Boqor Buurmadoow and Xil Khaliif here, both are saying Garaads should stick to the Khaatuma cause and not interfere with Somaliland ( or rather the rest of SL). But the Garaads concern and interference in Somaliland only shows that the communities in Somaliland(the North) fate is inseparable and their futures destiny is inter-wined. They might differ in political views, future’s political discourse and even name of the region (Somaliland/SSC/Gobolada Waqooyi), but irrelevant of that all, eventually when the disputes cooo down and emotions settle, peace will return and they will walk in the same direction towards one of those possible pathways(willingly or unwillingly). So the Garaads intervention to influence the direction of common pathway is quite rational and makes sense, as the future is not here yet and it’s for those that shape it.

Ilyria, how do u see the role of SSC-Khaatumo representations and participation in Puntland’s elections?

Couple of points; A. Even though there is a general definition of federalism different understandings exist around the on the political modes that establishes the constitutionally specified division of powers. The US has its own history, political context and modes for determining those divisions of powers, and so have other federalist country their own modes in which often its the overarching centre that decides on the modes and divisions of powers. And that goes also for Somalia, where the state existed before most of the states or perhaps all states, depending on we define the state and its sovereignty. B. Second, whereas States in other context such as the US guard to have a say, mandate and authority on their local and specific ‘realities’, ‘ways’, ‘customs’, ‘values’ and ‘norms’, the Somali States have so far proven to be vehicles guarding the interest of ‘whoever’ is in power in those states, and whose political priorities are hardly a reflection of issues of most concern to the people. Meaning the States are perhaps closer to the people in terms of physical distance but not necessarily in terms of representation and ownership by the people for the people. Not discounting the need for state authorities to have their say, input or right to be consulted but stating that we should not necessarily assume automatically they know, understand or care about what the people need. C. Issue of Clan. In the Somali context clans tend to that have a certain degree of sovereignty, organisation and authority and clan leadership to a certain extend ‘sovereignty’ and definably higher moral ‘authority’ coming closest to the “people’s will”. As we have seen recently in Las anod the role and authority of the Garaads played, in Somaliland the Saladin solving the political dispute and also in Puntland the Isims are often the last resort and highest authority to resolve the major issues of peace, war and disputes the system and its elected officials are unable to solve. So, I am missing the role of the traditional leaders in your narrative where in you only focussed on the shared authority and division of labour between verticals layers of government (centre and regions), but did not address the horizontal layers of power, roles and division of labour between modern state government and traditional governance, and Traditional leaders who clearly have and will continue to have the higher authority, autonomy and the power to resolve or interfere where others can’t. Specially on the most crucial issues of peace, war and conflicts. And lastly the elephant in the room, which makes our entire discussion a bit impotent is that both the Somali central and regional authorities and officials, don’t even understand the different roles and mandates of governance, government mandates and roles. They hardly comprehend, distinguish or differentiate between the different roles of policy and legislating, enforcement and implementation, operational management and oversight, and role of dispute settlement and custodian of the law (judiciary). This is often the source of the disputes and misunderstandings between the different authorities, government layers and officials, as they don’t distinguish roles and have a common understanding on what their role is exactly and what other authorities roles are. You will hear them say; ‘Anaga maamulna ‘Airportka’, ‘Wadooyinka’, or whatever function, or ‘Anaga ka masuul ah ‘Ganacsiga’, which automatically leads and ignite a dispute and becomes a source of conflict. The amendment of the constitution is a good example, which authority should be consulted, who should be heard, who should be drafting, who should amend, consent, eventually approve and legislate. Surely if there is no clarity on that, how can one expect the constitution to give any more clarity on the exact roles and mandates of government layers.

This current discourse isn’t benefiting anyone, and you are right that one community is more at fault then the other for this.