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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
Defnitely Can't be any other way Great start -
Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Totally agree. But all of them are doing this dancing afraid of setting an open and transparent structure, constitution. If they do that then the regions will be players, unlike side lined as now in Mogadishu. With out an open and known structure, its a market for the brave, the corrupt, the scandaleous. PM is also trying to erase what ever was done and start fresh constitution that will protect him and his backers only. Its a mess and add to it every foreign country is behind one side or another then you have total mess. In the mean time some regons are going ahead and when time, if ever comes that Mogadshu is in some order, those regions will be the biggest problem. -
Somalia's Parliament the circus show continues...
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
On a related subject of structures: After eight years the German army has ended its training mission to Somalia and has returned all Bundeswehr soldiers to Germany. The move was confirmed to dpa by a spokesman for the Defense Ministry in Berlin on Tuesday. The ministry had already announced the withdrawal from the east African country threatened by terrorists in February based on difficulties in training the Somali security forces. Those difficulties included deficits in the political and institutional structures in the country as well as in the equipment available for the trained Somali soldiers. Germany had since March 2010 taken part in the European training mission, which aimed to support the Somali government to be able to fend for itself with its own security and order institutions. The Bundeswehr said that it plans to continue supporting the mission politically. -
Turkish Airlines - Direct flights between Istanbul + Hargeisa
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Oodweyne, I understand soldiers are soldiers of any country, anywhere. What do you expect UAE soldiers or marines will do in Somaliland? Spend their time in building mosques, churches, and all sorts of prayer sites? No my friend you will be like any place that has military site. I am sure some Somaliland business folks have their plans ready. Ethiopians are actually the best there can be when in foreign country, let alone among people close to them, geographically and other ways. Very much appreciated in Sudan, Brundi, Ruanda, Liberia and now South Sudan. If we have to have foreign armies it will be Yemen, Djibouti, Sudan and Ethiopia was Yey's decision. Battalion from Sudan and battalion from Djibouti were training for this purpose in Ethiopia. Other Somalis had different take and opposed the plan. Yet were talking to Uganda on theother hand. The commander and commisioner of that mission was going to be Sudanese and Djiboutian. Was not going to be UN, but Somalia and those countries. That way Somalia has the authority and the soldiers are governed by the local cultures and traditions which is not far different their home countries. I am afraid, this is offensive to both folks. Ethiopian and Somalis of the region. First of all you will find that Arabs of different flags support different areas. Turks or Americans help different areas. Ugandans, Brundians and now Kenyans work in other areas. Ethiopians also help immediate neighbours first and then other areas.- 10 replies
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Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
MMA, This Somali saying is now most famous saying in Ethipia, soon will be East Africa. Illey explained it and used it at the University of Jigjiga talking about conflicts and some poiticians with hidden agendas. It was repeatedly shown on TV, Radios and web sites and immediately took off. No better description for politicians who hide their main objective and talk about something else. There was thread on "Jawari has to go" There were comments as if PM has noble cause, but Jawari is holding him etc. Jawari was mostly attacked here in SOL country. All government and parliament are afraid of delving on the main issue, most important issue and dancing around on different items. lol Even a Xabeshi can see that. -
Fundamentals of Federalism and Horn Of Africa
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
What are the constituent parts of federal system in Somalia? Is it regions: If Regions which ones and where is the list of Regions that are equal? Example Jubbaland is new construct, yet its now integrating militia into regional army, Is having some economic basis like Kismayu etc, will trade with Kenya for the most part and Ethiopia to some extent. Is it clans? Which clans are equal? Currently there is situation that some sub clans are acting like clans. These subclans have even more role and status in Somalia equal or even bigger than some clans. Is 4.5 workable formula that you have 4 equal clans and another 1/2 equal. Should this not be the most prior isse to agree in Somalia? How could you have federal without equal. That is impossible. Either the federal system is fake or the constituent parts are fake. -
Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
And the sad and most disappointing part is the constitutional file is critical, more critical than even trying to eradicate Shabab. If the constitutional file was cleared up, every region would be able to take care of Shabab with some help from federal and even international help. Constitution is absolutely crucial for everything. How do you develop economy without formulae for installation, distribution, tax system etc? What is relation between regional militia, Somalia military, police...its all constitution. -
Where is federal system serve as solution, as necessity? Federalism is needed where ever there are peoples that hate each other, but want and cannot live away from each other. They really have problems betwen them, but want to live together in one country. That is where federal system is needed and solves most of the problems. In Sudan Federalism is well understood and clear, In Somalia it is not clear and is misunderstood, In Ethiopia its clear but misunderstood What is the most importnant part of Federalism? Its the part where everyone of the constituents is equal. In America 500000 population Wyoming is equal to 40 million California, In Canada 160000 Prince Edward Island is equal to 14 million Ontario. In Ethiopia 30 million Oromo are equal to 6.5 million Somalis. America the constituent parts are states, Canada its provinces, Ethiopia its nationalities (Ethnics). There has to be some mechanism where all constituent parts of a federation are equal, regardless of population, natural resources, weather, etc. What is the next most important part of Federalism? Self government, Autonomy, self administration of constituent parts. Will continue and apply it to Somalia. Remember please: No heavy theory, no long winded explanation, just the fundamentals.
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Trump is trying to consolidate the home front. Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. That does not have to do much with deficit. What ever Trump does against Canada is collateral damage with Mexico, not directed on Canada. He knows America can only rely on the British origins not only trade, but if it comes to Military.
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Turkish Airlines - Direct flights between Istanbul + Hargeisa
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Very smart these Turks. History is an asset not liability..that they recognize. The Ottoman empire was also an empire which ruled by local considerations, for that all their colonies still have some admiration. What ever was done bad in the Ottoman empire was done by some overzeleous local, just like the Albanians, some in spain and even the Adal in our part of the world.- 10 replies
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Somaliland's power distribution: 75% Beesha Dhexe, 25% others
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
Its true but other corrupt politicians from other clans will use this negatively and create friction, mistrust and suspicion and bring the whole house down, instead of doing it constructively and lift everybody up. Its like lowering test scores in America to accept certain groups, gender etc to schools or organizations. Instead should have been specialization where the strength is. The Russians, French, British, Dutch, Spanish, Portueguese...were all empires, but there are areas where each had strength and weaknesses, be it cultural, religion, social, education etc based. -
Somaliland's power distribution: 75% Beesha Dhexe, 25% others
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
This is very dangerous politics. In Ethiopia: The Amhara never mention government, but only military and intelligence to show Tigray domination The Amhara and Oromo never go colonel and below in the Military, because they know its balanced to that level The Oromo only focus on the 70% Amhara in government and want short cut by making Oromo language Federal instead of teaching their children Amharic and balance that way Its very easy to create hate, suspicion in third world. In all of American history only one Catholic president has ever been elected and he even did not finish one term In both US and Canada its British and Germans and British and French that dominate everything Some things are historical reasons and not easily fixable, example: If fighters of a clan were 90% well this will continue for a generation, before it can be reasobnably balanced. -
Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Lets leave the non Somali since what I pointed out is public information. This constitutional file has destroyed governments. Instead of adding few things and have a functional ratified constitution for everybody Feds, regions, semi-autonomous insttitutions like Military etc there are some groups who want to modify the federal constituents the 4.5. But these are desparate groups, where some group wants it scrapped, but others want the designation modified. If people want Federal system, there has to be a formulae, a formula that is public, no secrets around it and open. If based on clans, should follow that and some sub-clans should not be enjoying status of a clan, just because they have money, location or past historical roles. All this information is public. It has always been most contentious issue since First TFG where it started, and 2nd TFG where the constitution really took shape. In short, its all public information. Al Shabab is among the most anti-constitution as well. -
Somalis will be largest Ethnic in Kenya soon
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Your argument makes total sense, but less practical to implement. Reasons: Nearly impossible to have family planning among Somali population for understood reasons The Somali has not much history but destructive enough, just enough to damage the Somali in terms of slave trade and slavings of the past The Somali is more recptive to business and trading culture, so this should help him move up faster Until the Somali realizes that without modern education, training..cannot make it, yes will remain like the Oromo, but from experience in the Kilil this is becoming easy to break down. Even number of females going to modern schools has really shot up. Since lowering births will not work, the best thing to do is speed up the rest even by dictatorial means. -
Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
galbeedi, The conflict in Mogadishu is this: One side wants to delay the constitution file for ever until end of time One other side wants to throw away what is in the existing and start fresh and make a breakfast of it, pocket the money and do new short constitution to their advantage only. Everything else is shenanigan and as shenanigan it has different colours and names every day. You might be destroying the whole project instead of presssuring Jawari to get on with the job saying here is the money do it in 12 months the procedure it was written otherwise you will be jailed. PM will scribble a constitution in a Hotel napkin and that will start another war and friction between regions or region/s and Mogadishu which is region on to itself. If your criterion was Tiray, the most challenging Somali to Tigray is Somaliland, the highest defender of Somali dignity, Somali people's respect outside of Ethiopia. They have never disrespected the Somali just to get some economic, political or social browny points with any Ethiopian authorities. I know this. Unless Somaliland is asked of war like situation, Somalialnd will never speak about Puntland with Ethiopia. Somaliland would speak with Puntland through other chanels or Djibouti, but not Ethiopia. Only if there is war situation or something that can lead to war do Ethiopians get spoken since they have same risk as well. -
Somalis will be largest Ethnic in Kenya soon
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
galbeedi, Look at the positive side. The Somalis stopped the wall dead on its tracks, the Somalis are thought about and looked upon as stabilizing force in Kenya. The Somalis are also being looked as reconciling among the Ethnics, most fair between all the tag between different forces. As the Somali rises in influence in Kenya, so will the detractors. This article is actually educational for both the Kenya in general and Somalis in particular of what to expect in the future. -
Turkish Airlines - Direct flights between Istanbul + Hargeisa
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Things are heating up this part of the world is going to take off. Unlike 1900s this time hopefully there will be more smarter leaders to take advantage for their own peoples. Ethiopians will have a lot of jobs since they have training school for pilots, mechanics, in cabin service etc. The locals everywhere will have jobs too.- 10 replies
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Mr. Jawari survives Mogadishu unlike in SOL country
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
"This cry is for more than a goat" -
The opposing factions of the Lower House members have been holding parallel meetings for last 48 hours in different hotels in the city amid looming political tensions. The Lower House sitting scheduled for Saturday has been called off the following intervention by Somali President, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.
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In the next two decades, Somalis will have overtaken the top three largest communities in Kenya to be the most populous group if the current population trends remain. The latest Household Survey shows that Somalis' families are at least one and a half times bigger than the average household in Kenya, and twice as much as the families in Nyeri, Nairobi, Mombasa and Kiambu counties. Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties, which are home to most Kenyan Somalis, have between six and seven children on average, according to the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS), 2015/16. Wajir has the biggest families at 6.6 children per household, followed by Mandera 6.4 and Garissa 5.5 members per household. Other counties with bigger households are Tana River and West Pokot which have 5.4 people, on average, in every household. The survey was released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). “Relatively high average household sizes were recorded in arid and semi-arid counties (ASAL) of Wajir, Garissa and Mandera,” Mr Zachary Mwangi, the KNBS Director General said. Whereas some households in North Eastern have about seven members on average, households in Kiambu, Nairobi, Nyeri and Murang’a appear to be shrinking in sizes, helped by increased use of contraceptives, having more educated populations and the impact of urbanisation. “Those numbers are very factual and represent what is actually happening on the ground,” Aden Duale, leader of majority in National Assembly and the region’s top ranking Government official, told the Saturday Standard yesterday. Duale said that the North Eastern is largely dominated by Muslims and both their religion and culture prohibit family planning. “In 2009, people thought the numbers given were not genuine and even went to court. But this new report being released a year before the next census confirms that the numbers were correct,” Duale said. The survey ranks Nyeri County as having the smallest sizes of households in the country at 2.9 people on average per home. Nairobi and Mombasa counties have an average of three people each per home - that is a father, mother and one child, or one parent and two children. Largest community Kiambu, Kirinyaga and Murang’a counties, where most of Kenya’s largest community, the Kikuyu, come from, are also ranked among the six counties with the smallest households. “The average household size in rural areas was higher, at 4.5 members compared to 3.3 members in urban areas. Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties recorded high average household sizes of 6.6, 6.4 and 5.5 members, respectively,” the report notes. All these are below the national average of 4 people per household. The KIHBS survey defines a household size as the number of persons living together in a household. “Nationally, the average household size was estimated at 4 members in 2015/16 KIHBS, which was a decline from 5.1 members reported in 2005/06 KIHBS,” the report notes in part. “Households with 1 to 2 members accounted for 31.6 per cent of all households,” the report adds. The findings support a previous report that ranked Central Kenya as the top county in usage of family planning, while the north Eastern region was hardly using any contraceptives. According to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2014, the penetration of contraceptives in Central Kenya, which is home to Kiambu, Nyeri and Kirinyaga counties was at 73 per cent. This means that 7 in every 10 women in Central were using some form of family planning. On the contrary, in North Eastern region, only 3 per cent of their population, or 3 in every 100 people were using contraceptives. In the last census, population growth in North Eastern Kenya rose almost three-fold, from 962,143 in 1999 to 2.3 million in 2009. In Mandera, where the population boom was most pronounced, the numbers had quadrupled in a decade. Current projections show that Kenya has about 50 million people within its borders. The explosion of the Somali population caused tension in the 2009 census. Some of the results of the census especially that covered North Eastern region were partially cancelled by the then Planning Minister Wycliffe Oparanya, who is the current governor of Kakamega County. But the matter landed in court and was reversed. “The numbers from North Eastern region did not fit the normal population trends and that is why I rejected them,” Oparanya said. This is after it emerged that the population growth rates in the region deviated significantly from patterns noted in the rest of the country and in the respective neighbouring districts. The population in the north seemed to be growing fastest compared with other regions despite the fact that the area had fewer women. “My understanding at the time was that the region inflated their numbers to benefit from increased allocation of resources after devolution. Areas with bigger populations were to benefit from increased allocation,” Oparanya said. Since independence, Kenya’s biggest community has been the Kikuyu, which is now 17 per cent of the population or 6.8 million people as per the 2009 census. According to the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), the second biggest group is the Luhya, which stands at 14 per cent of the population, at about 5.4 million people. The Kalenjin come third, making up 11 per cent of the population. Given that voters cast their ballots along these ethnic blocs, the larger communities have always had an advantage over the smaller ones whenever there is competition for power. “There are more than 42 ethnic communities in Kenya. Language and cultural background are the main criteria for ethnic identification in Kenya,” NCIC says in its report. The other big ethnic groups by size are Luo at 10.8 per cent and Kamba at 10 per cent. The Kenyan Somalis are now at position six and if they grow at the same pace as they have done in the last two decades, they will be in the top four. In the last census, population growth in North Eastern Kenya rose almost three-fold, from 962,143 in 1999 to 2.3 million in 2009. Saturday March 31, 2018 By Paul Wafula
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