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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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How nations fortunes change so dramatically with some genius or simply love of country. Eritrea was supposed to have been officially Singapore and Djibouti remain that camels resting and watering in 20 years after Eritrean independence. Reality Djibouti is Singapore already and Eritrea is Sing a poor by every measure. Bravo Ghelleh. A day will come where Ethiopia will die to be federated with you rather than the other way around.
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The Strategic Implications Of A Possible Russian Base In Somaliland
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
What would Russia have to do with Democracy? Do you mean you are cncerned with the enemies it would bring for Somaliland and the hightened security threat?- 9 replies
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Indeed. I also join in the thanks to MMA. MMA, How synical and deep register do you ave to have to come up with this at the right time with new PM in Ethiopia and some how quite a bit of contraversy in Somalia as well.
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Che, Why not for a change argue on an issue on its own merits? It clouds your thought if you start with a label. Example: king Minelik for Amhara/Shiwa is smeone close to a saint. Yet the Oromo have a monument where Minelik cut women's breasts and mens hands. Afar-Tigray consider him a coward who signed every order the Europeans gave him including borders for today's Ethiopia. He was also a coward who signed off on Nile river for the British empire. The Afar Sultan was defeated, captured and imprisoned in Jima by being attacked Italians at front anf Minelik from back sandwitched. You see how contraversial personalities can get in one country? The Sayid comes from kilil. You only want to see his fight against colonialism, but on the other side he also weakened the fight against colonialism and also left people very disunited to an extent he did not leave options, but for some to side with Minelik. It should be a reminder for both positive and negative aspects. If labeling helps you simplify issues, please continue, but remember that human beings are more complicated than boxes.
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Thanks. I can be any of those possibilities agent/guest/spy/AI etc. In this thread the only thing I said was that Somalia politicians should never ignore the kilil or go against the interests of the kilil. Talk to Illey, see Illey he might even help them in their need and best of all it becomes an add on effect to all Somalis. I know there are a lot here in SOL country that hate Illey with a passion, but its to their advantage to know that the Ethio Somali is a force that cannot be ignored and love him or hate him he is the leader and image of the Somali in Ethiopia. Some SOLers mention Tigray/Xabeshi only when run out of argument or feel my views are totally opposed to theirs. The rest of the time in a funny way I could be son of late SMB or cousin of Mr. Bixi if not elder brother of Ghelleh.lol As for Ethiopian PM visits My first is Khartoum second Djibouti and third Mogadishu..then everybody else.
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I wish other nations and societies learn from these two. You can quarel even fight each other, but never loose respect and never hate.
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That is not a vote of confidence, just for now. Hopefully this is not what the Sudanese call "Halima effect or Halima Habit" for a system or person wanting to stop a bad habit, but can't. The Sudanese use this on president Al Bashir when he signs agreements with rebels and then does not fulfill the whole agreement repeatedly.
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Yes. But interest is both ways. It actually never works if the interest is one way. Somalia cannot afford to ignore Ethiopia and Ethiopia cannot afford to ignore Somalia. Let alone countries that share such a big population, even countries that are just neighbours cannot ignore each other. If not friends will be sooner or later enemies, that is how life works. Khat is common problem for all. It can only be solved by joint plans, action.
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Every Ethiopian PM has visited Mogadishu. In Hailemariam's case twice. The new one is expected to visit as well maybe after Khartoum and Djibouti. Every TFG/SFG saw need for outside support. A. Yusuf preferred Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen and Djibouti and others preferred Uganda and yet others preferred Kenya. But I guess Ethiopia is the focus of your thread and keep it there.
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cadnaan1, I am afraid you misunderstood me in both cases. On the military bases all I said is that all countries except france in Djibouti have an understanding and some have agreement with Ethiopia. Even countries that have peace keepers in South Sudan or Sudan have agreements with Ethiopia. After all they need to protect their bases. Ethiopia gets paid by most of them to be rapid responder. UAE discussed with Ethiopia for its Assab base to guarantee Ethiopia that UAE is not threat and also will not take part in conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Turkey has joint military commission with Ethiopia. They have exchange of staff. On the kilil issue, there has been some Somali officials from regions and one from Mogadishu who knowingly or uncknowingly undermined interests of the kilil and were told that is not possible. One case was where Ethio-Somalis role in around Kismayu etc. The Ethiopian government should always consider interests and activities of the kilil whenever dealing with Somalia FG or regions. And Somali officials should do things respecting the Somali kilil. What is wrong with that?
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Lessons from Darfur: Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
April 8, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - African Union, UN and Sudan mechanism on UNAMID Sunday have agreed that the continued improvement of security situation creates favourable conditions for the withdrawal of more peacekeepers from Darfur. The Tripartite Coordination Mechanism tasked with the implementation of UNAMID’s mandate met Sunday in Khartoum to discuss the ongoing troops’ reconfiguration process which ultimately should lead to the full withdrawal of peacekeeping mission from Darfur. The forces’ reduction plan is based on the improvements in the security and humanitarian situations as well as the absence of clashes between government forces and the armed opposition. "On the Exit Strategy, the participants of the meeting agreed on the significant improvement of the security and humanitarian situation in Darfur, which is creating conditions for a further substantial reconfiguration of UNAMID," said a statement issued by the three parties in Khartoum. "They expressed satisfaction about the implementation of UNAMID’s reconfiguration, and the coordinated implementation of UNAMID reconfiguration in phase (1) and phase (2) so far," further said the statement. Phase one of the reconfiguration, which was completed on 1 January 2018, includes the closure of 11 UNAMID team sites and reductions in military personnel from 15,845 to 11,395 and in police personnel from 3,403 to 2,888. Last February; the UNAMID launched the second phase which should terminate by the end of June. It involves a further reduction of military personnel to 8, 735 and police personnel to 2,500. However, due to the presence of rebel fighters in Jebel Marra, the ongoing process excludes the mountainous area and even provides to establish a temporary operating base (TOB) at Golo, Central Darfur. The Sudanese government delegation for the meeting was led by Omer Siddig, the Acting Undersecretary of the Foreign Ministry, The AU delegation was led by Smail Chergui the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, while the UN delegation was led by Jean-Pierre Lacroix, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and the UNAMID delegation was led by its chief Kingsley Mamabolo. Last January, the Security Council issued a presidential statement on the situation in Darfur region and said concerned by the need for a sustainable solution to the 2.7 displaced persons who have been residing in the camps since 2004. The Council further called on the international community to back the government’s efforts to address IDPs situation and stressed it should be done in harmony with the international law. -
There has been peace keepers in Darfur for a long time. Egypt had some 3,000 soldiers in Darfur from beginning and Egypt was hosting through Eritrea some 3 of Darfur rebels. The last 5 years the situation in Darfur had abruptly changed. Darfur went off the news media, peace keepers were enabled to go everywhere and interact with the population, rebels who swore not to go to Ethiopia to negotiate peace started tripping over each other as to who reaches first to Addis Ababa. President Al Bashir who was unfairly demonized and his removal sought is now seen as necessary person for the peace in Darfur. What and how was the dramatic change achieved in short 5 months time? 1. The UN was in dire need of Air support for peace keepers. Out of the 3 countries that offered that service only one was deemed competent and unanimously selected by UNSC and AU. That country was Ethiopia. Ethiopia deployed Air support in short order. 2. There were too many countries and some unhelpful ones like Egypt that needed to be contained or eliminated from the field. A lot of countries were not co-operating with Sudan.There was neighboring Chad and Libya who were unhelpful and in some cases destructive. A lot of countries were taken off the list and replaced by one country that has enough force and capability to influence the situation. This country was Ethiopia. Ethiopia deployed more than 5,000 force again in short order. A. Chad was threatened with its own security. Chad negotiated with Sudan and was neutralized B. Gaddafi was eliminated and sent to meet his maker C. Egyptian soldiers were threatened enough to remain in a camp and avoid any contact with anyone, else could be liquidated in the desert with some pretext or another D. Direct contact with clan elders was institutionalized, peace keepers were digging water wells, setting clinics with Sudanese medical personnel and Sudanese government E. Rebels were all threatened with credible force to negotiate direct with Sudanese government, in some cases in the desert, since the Ethiopian force was credible and had the confidence of Sudan government and slowly but surely the rebels. In less than a year all the objectives the Ethiopians involved themselves with were achieved. There is relative peace in Darfur and some of the Rebels have even joined the government.
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PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
This is just circular argument and empty threats which have the least possibility and pointless results. No Somali is interested in a nomadic way of life exporting. The Somali people will export educated work force, produce of industry and agriculture, like all other competing societies. The Somali will keep peace where societies have lack of it, will help and support societies that have lack of food and other necessities and develop himself constantly. As much as you and I can admire and appreciate the independence and confidence of the Nomad, the negative side to it is that the same nomad is also independent from his own brother and less cooperating, less law abiding. -
I wonder what the benefits will be to the country. It will be seen shortly if it was wasting people's hopes and aspirations for protecting PM chair or speedily complete the constitutional file.
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I understand you may be trying to use this as attcking some Somalis or Ethiopians, but it is the wrong use of history. Don't forget that Abiy is prime minister of country shaped in its current version by king Minelik. Illey and the kilil have no intension of forcing every Somali or Ethiopian into taking the Sayid as a hero, its just that otheres need to tolerate when others honour a hero for some. PM Abiy cannot ask that of king Menelik all over Ethiopia. There is a monument for his cruelty of cutting hands of men and breasts of women. Some Somalis or Ethiopians may want to erect monuments for the Sayid's cruelty and triviality as well. Are you going to accept it with the same zeal? Balance is important in political history. The Sayid is hero in his anti-colonial struggle, but with his own methods might have hurt even the anti colonial struggle itself. He might have left the Somali people with seeds of disunity.
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PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
There will always be nomads, but if you think having 6 million nomads as a badge of honour, you are wrong. I do not think you have any clue how devastating a draught is on a nomad. Once the herd is gone has nothing to fall back on. There are close to a million people in the kilil at risk right now. You are devaluing them by making them wait for western aid everytime. You cannot afford mobile schools which means next generation of nomads without much to show for and next recruits for whatever schemes you or someone else has. Human and animal health costs of mobile population scattered is something else. I love the independent minded, courageous nomad as next person, but at this day and age and with exploding population is not sustainable. The conflicts over grass and water will only increase. It shows me how much respect and confidence or total lack of it you have for the Somali in Ethiopia. I don't think you have good information at the consciousness, organization, development and the will for further development the Ethio Somali has. I am afraid you are measuring all Somalis by Mogadishu yard stick. Let me give you the benefit of doubt that you care for the future of the Somali. Would you rather fight for the dwindling grazing lands or fight for your income from your natural resources? Which one do you think is more important? Which one would you give more priority? FYI Since Mengistu days all land is state owned in Ethiopia. There is no private lands. Even now there is a lot of conflicts for grazing lands among nomads. -
The Strategic Implications Of A Possible Russian Base In Somaliland
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
fake news On the other hand, may not be totally fake. Russian visit to Ethiopia this time was extensive and comprehensive. As you know, Ethiopia is a kind of insurance for all these bases. Even UAE had discussions with Ethiopia on its base in Assab and next in Somaliland. If the russians are to have a base, Somalia would be most prefered, but regardless where they choose cannot be without knowledge and input from Ethiopia. Its just the nature of things.- 9 replies
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That should be the attitude. as for Abiy First Khartoum, then Djibouti then Mogadishu Kenya would be next batch It should not be a problem if either Kheyre or Farmaajo visit Ethiopia first, since there are many urgent matters in Mogadishu these days than in Addis Ababa. My view is that Ethiopia, regardless of our galbeedi thinks, need and must play a positive role better than any foreign country in Somalia. Puntland, Bay should first talk to Illey, before visiting any federal ethiopia. Any Somali official from anywhere outside Ethiopia, trying to be friend with Ethiopian officials over stepping the Somali region or undermining the Somali kilil is writing his political death warrant.
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PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
Yes he succeeded simply visiting Jijiga. I am not sure if you noticed, but I had argued repeatedly that Abiy or any Oromos first talk will be with Somali. All Ethiopians are and were very much concerned that the Somali region need to be considered, its interests, its place in Ethiopia..etc. Next step should be the federal government sharing in the work of settling nomads into agricultural field and supporting the program, making it the number one issue with development donors..etc. Establish an industrial zone, free trade zone, dry port...all in the Somali region. Its a good start just visiting itself and the work comes next. -
Kheyre is in the wrong on two counts: 1. He is trying to ensure his chair by a short cut, removing the threat to his chair from parliament, instead of pushing an agenda that would benefit the country and also pushes out his opponents. He simply is trying to remove his potential threat by scandaleous means no benefit to the country. 2. His/or interest of others he is trying to put in the constitution by unconstitutional means is dangerous for the country. Constitution might be messy in the making, but for a country like Somalia and even every country in similar situation is even more messy. Kheyre and his backers must realize that just one region can throw a monkey wrench to all their plans if people are not listened to and also try to work as open and transparent as possible. There cannot be secrecy in the fundamentals of the constitution. Mr. Jawari's fault is delay and delay and delay so Farnaajo and Kheyre must have been just pushing parliament to work on this by bringing the issue on radio, tv, facebook...everywhere and shaming parliamentarians.
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PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
Thank you. And Thank you for the emergency heart repair. lol At least Illey is sonmebody whose concerns need addressed. He is a somebody. And the Ethio-Somalis are a somebody. He is a leader love him or hate him, of the greatest number of Somalis of any country enclave or territory. Mogadishu does not have control of 12 million not even 5 million, so Illey has the most and it shows. -
PM Abiy pays his first visit to the Somali Region
Old_Observer replied to Deeq A.'s topic in Politics
The Somali people in Ethiopia deserve respect. And in a small way this is an indication of greater things to come. The dead cannot be brought back, but can be made memorable to better the future of the living. Bravo Illey for keeping the Somali orgaized, proud and dignified. Oodweyne, Jigjiga is the place to be and be seen for any Somali leader. Mr. Bixi better put it on his schedule. galbeedi, Illey is the leader of the most Somali
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