Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. As cruel as it may sound, there is always part of the population for whom life is not kosher in any country, but as you said enough trickle down should be there to leave for the next generation. Djiboutians to be educated, trained eeven just enough to politicaly, administratively and technically to manage things in their country. Its never easy to jump from camel or donkey lead transporatation to aeroplane and expect the cultural change required to catch up with the import. I agree there should be investment on the human being that is Djiboutian, because its the camel herder that made it possible to keep this place for Mr. Hhelleh to join the club.
  2. I think the same can be said of any country. The same works the opposite direction for Somalis as well. The two countries have common shared people, common shared religion and so many other shared history bad or good. The two countries can have information on each other so cheaply and economically. There are people on each side that are closer to the other side since thousand years. These are interacting peoples.
  3. What if its you who is day dreaming? Have you ever looked the other way? Its very easy to count a million man Egyptian armed forces to just about 150,000 Ethiopian armed forces or an Egypt that defeated Israel lol. You must be one of those people that think that the Egyptians did not do anything to GERD because they are so friendly, so fair, so humaine so compassionate ...
  4. Yes, but that is small price to pay to establish a precedence and assert yourself. When you are prepared to pay dear life to defend your right, loosing profits is tolerable. This is also always entered into the calculus. Its even known which countries can and will do what even if this thing goes to war.
  5. I hope everyone hopes this is solved peacefully too. The only solution is for Egypt to: Accept that Ethiopia is not party to any agreements the British Empire signed on behaf of its colonies and its preotectorate Egypt for the cotton farms of the British empire. Accept that Egypt Sudan agreement that was done by coup de estat in Sudan does not concern Ethiopia and cannot abide by it. Accept that a dam is not reducing water all the time, only when filling it and that can be made by agreed schedule Accept that Egypt cannot dictate anything to Ethiopia or Sudan has to negotiate That is the only way fair way and longer in to the future guaranteed way to use the water peacefully.
  6. That is very true, but Ethiopia has two telephone assembly plants, produces telephones where operating system is in Ethiopian languages, has complete control over security, economic issues, collects taxes, collects profits and uses this money for other projects. Ethiopia in this way is not only dumping ground, but a participant. There is both plus minus pros and cons, but at the end of the day its the development plan/policy that trumples even some cases which d not make sense in global thinking.
  7. Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia Militarily: Directly Nil Through Sudan Nil Through Eritrea Next to Nil Through Djibouti Nil Through Somaliland and Somalia Nil Through Kenya Next to Nil Through South Sudan Next to Nil Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia economically: Close the Suez for Ethiopian ships Minimum effect Most Ethiopian ships work in East and some around Europe Close Ethiopian airlines transit and destination Cairo.. Telaviv and Turkey takes rest Egypt stop investors : Some can even take Ethiopian citizenship and move and not big to start with Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia through destabilization: Oromo very small chance and being reduced progressively Amhara very big chance for egypt, but Amhara do not have capacity to serve Egypt, only wish and some attempt The rest are not interested or downright unapproachable by Egypt Egypts chances to hurt Ethiopia diplomatically: Africa almost Nil Asia almost Nil Europe almost Nil Americas not big enough to hurt Ethiopia Middle East 50/50
  8. CAIRO – Egypt’s foreign minister has delivered a warning to Ethiopia over a dam it is building on a Nile River tributary. Sameh Shoukry says in TV comments aired Thursday that all parties “should know that Egypt will not accept the status quo … and continues to defend the interests of its people regarding the Nile by several means.” He did not elaborate. Earlier in April, the foreign ministers of Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia met in Khartoum but talks ended with no deal on the lingering dispute of access to the Nile’s waters. Egypt has called for another meeting in Cairo. Egypt is alarmed the so-called Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is completing will drastically impact its share of the Nile’s waters. Ethiopia and Sudan are expected to benefit from the construction. AP
  9. CONTEXTUALIZING THE SHINIILE UPRISING From 20 April 2018, Shinille zone of Somali Region is a scene reminiscent of the Irrecha and Oromia wide protests of the last three years. If not by size of demonstrators, by spirit. The people of Somali Region have been brutalized by the TPLF for over two decades but the last 10 years under Abdi Iley rule has been the most traumatic period in their history. In the reign of Abdi Mohamud Omer (a.ka Iley), the Somali people witnessed horrendous human rights violations and gruesome massacres. The epicenter of the atrocities, surprisingly, was not Shinille or Jigjiga zone, the two zones now most vocal in their opposition against Abdi Mohamud Omer. Degahbour and Fiq took the brunt of the oppression. Followed by Qorahey and Wardheer. In these zones, where the dominant clan is O..n, protesting against government is unthinkable. The people have been so humiliated that they have normalized to oppression. The reason why Shinile and Jigjiga are openly expressing their anger while the hinterland is still quiet owes more to the severity of the oppression than a difference in the depth of anger against the ongoing oppression. As paradoxical as it may sound, Jigjiga and Shinille are actually protesting because of less, not more oppression compared to the other 9 zones of the Somali Region. _____________________________________________________________ This article is from Jigjiga Herald what you once called Illey propaganda. It shows you that its the most openminded and fair person that is publish/editor. A professor from the kilil who now lives in US. https://www.jigjigaherald.com/2018/04/24/contextualizing-the-shiniile-uprising/
  10. galbeedi, Why is the status of Dirdawa federal? In the Ethiopian constitution only Addis Ababa is federal. Only Addis Ababa is included. Diredawa is not federal by constitution, but to prevent the two kilil's going to war over it. Why the Oromo did not agree to Dirdawa, Hareri and sarounding to be Hararge kilil by itself which would avoid the tug between Oromo and Somali and also the Oromo, Somali and Hareri would be easy to live together by having the Hareri included? The reason is simple. The Oromo calculus was that the Hareri will be closer to Somali than Oromo given the opportunity. Once you understand and see this fact, is easy to see what is happening, unless its your dream or objective.
  11. There is enough business for both Djibouti and Somaliland and add Puntland for special goods. WB just came out showing Ethiopia with all the chaos will grow 8.5 percent. Djibouti is gone. It has now joined special class of countries. It will not suffer from African problems. Djibouti problems will be different problems not the ones Somalia, Ethiopia...suffer from.
  12. Meles has fought both these items all through the years. If he was killed if then there were only 3 issues that could have got him killed: GERD BANKS TELECOMMUNICATIONs (he called it mobile phones are next to the bank where is like printing money)
  13. Their audacity is on them, it shows how a Bedew behaves, no politness, unpolished, uncultured. As some Somali giving that impression, I do not agree. Even in America is the same, pay a lobyist who was high official year before and you get what you want. Every politician has price and since banking systems are so not autonolous by country, its even known among the big shots. You can even buy a general to manufacture war for you, with empires. And so you can buy a senator in America or in Mogadishu. UAE should know this more than others since UAE only instrument of influence is money.
  14. You are correct. I also realized and apologized for it, but could not edit a direct copy and then make sense what the strategy and objectives of Jawar and Co. Many people may not know what is behind this news and facebook and some web sites co=ordinated campaign. Back to your corruption issue: The following are source of income for the kilil: 1. Federal funding. Is done according to some formula, is open, is public, announced in federal Parlaiment with budget 2. Taxes that is collected from kilil provinces and some crossings where the kilil manages for federal government 3. Project funding for specific program that comes from likes of USAID and UNDP 4. Special funding where the kilil comes up with projects that fit with federal plan example draught fighting programms.. 5. Corporations of the kilil that work in road construction, dams and similar There is national assembly of the kilil which meets and expected to recieve report and go around in committe and inspect some projects if not all. There is cabinet of the kilil and heads of depts and agencies There is conference of reps from every sub district, elders, govt officials conducted yearly few day before Ramadan start (unique for the Somali kilil which others want to copy) There is financial controller and auditor of the kilil who publicly issues annual statement what was done, what is in progress and what percentage, what was cancelled or not started at all etc Where is the millionaire coming from to Illey and brother that the accusation is being placed with nothing substantiated?
  15. Except the Oromo who changed average 5 years prior, but 4 times in last 3 years, 5 years is average and normal with elections. The longest serving kilil president is Ishmail Ali Sero of Afar about 20 years prior to current one Haj Seyum. How did they become "millionaires". That kind of blanket factless and unsubstantiated attacks is wearing out thin. If you want to fight corruption the constructive way is not to say let me have my turn at the till, but let me close the loophole let me change the system so that next guy will also not be corrupt. Whe people say "he is corrupt" to anyone in politics without any supporting proof or exposing system that allows corruption, my answer and most people question is: So you want to have your turn at the corruption..that is going in circles. OK see you later.
  16. Now some of the issues: There was government cabinet shuffle, party as well as all regions in Ethiopia are doing and some have done. The vice president has been replaced The party chairman has been replaced Few regional cabinet and zone administrator have been replaced Diredawa is contentious issue between Somali and Oromo. The only reason it was made federal. It is also one of the reasons ONLF tried to justify complaint since ONLF wanted outright that Diredawa and area is placed in Somali kilil. Elections for the city and area governments are coming. Has been postponed already by federal parliament since there was no time to campaign with the disturbances by Oromo. The main intention is Diredawa and area so that the Somali kilil will be pushed out and the Somali pushed out of the way of the roads and railroads Djibouti Ethiopia. If Somalis think have UAE problem in Mogadishu.....
  17. It may not be my preferred message, but exposing the messenger is appropriate here. galbeedi, No matter how many websites you posted and cross copied and double copied the source is: "Protest has erupted in Shinelle against Abdi Illey’s brutal rule over Skmali region. I-s-sa clan armed militia reportedly engaged in gunfire repelled Liyu Police forces who came to suppress the protesters 8 hrs ago, via Jawar MOhammed ____________________________________________ That is the source you did not want to post. ______________________________________________ He works closely with Abdihakim Egal, VP of the region, who happens to be Ciise. Iley can't do squat without a Ciise right hand man in Sitti. Game changer would be if there is Ciise casualty. Game over for all non-Ciise in the zone. ________________________________________________ That was the part you did not want to copy I did not want to copy the rest of the objective except one thing more: ______________________________________________ "it's time for ismaciil cumar geele to capture some ogaden swines in Djibouti city and send them to jail o-g-aden. Ciise is not your filthy darood pig clan their region shinile should break away from kilil somali and should become seperate region with diredawa as it's capital. I think this could work. Ciise and gurgure oromo noolo clans and barsuug and the small amhara in diredawa will get along pretty good. Ciise should not share a kilil admin with The dumb brain dead o-ga-dens" ____________________________________________________ My apology for naming, but has to copy as is. ______________________________________________________ The pictures used, do you want to put dates and place, before I do so. Its up to you. Being given an opportunity to correct or come straight out and say archival pictures used for representation only. lol I now know you can be calous and irresponsible with Somali lives if you had the power of Jawar and not just messenger. You should have moral limits to politics. We all may support one side or another, but there are red lines moral lines we should not cross for simply attacking someone. No matter what you are able to propagandize or use this clan or that half clan there cannot be a leader for the kilil who is an ally of the Oromo. Nothing against or between the peoples, but simply interest of the regions. Economic interest will not allow this alliance. The Somali and Oromo kilils are competing for certain fundamental economic development programs. Who ever gets there first will have a lock and advantage. No animosity between people. The morally weak are trying to use human lives instead of development plans that can take advantage of the TTP II. The new prime minister is trying to review TTP II which was done with a lot of input from Somali kilil.
  18. If i were employed by someone to work on SOL first sign is consistency on message like you. I am not. I post my views on subjects with vareity and different conclusions. I am not constrained and do not have the modus operandi of 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' or my friends enemy is my enemy. I sometimes like kidding since I believe you are matured enough to dish out or take. Oodweyne has same modus operandi as you except he is focused on Somaliland but you are focused against Somaliland. Oodweyne discriminates on powers or forces he uses in defence of Somaliland, you do not discriminate you can use Oromo, Mogadishu and lol even Houthis. That is the difference. What would the horn of Africa be if we were not boqors, sultans, Ugas, Garaads, Ras, Fitawrari where we are more energized against each other more than those outside of the horn of africa. BTW that is confidence, actually too much confidence, so in a way its good.
  19. That could end careers and means of income for many. That would also raise status of some regions and communities that will threaten those who benefit from this arrangement. It requires courage to speak of all the possible arangements and a real love of the people before and above geography. If for nothing else the Tigray Afar and Somali cultural shock to Ethiopia, by openly discussing good and bad side of autnomy up to separation. This ended the Amhara ruling class of course and one can see the Oromo who decades ago could not speak his language in cities, persons changing names to aprticipate in education and government can now ask his language to be language of Ethiopia. It will bring same in Somalia and those whose living, status is attached to unitary Somalia would be out of place, unless they have courage to accept reality and move to new order.
  20. That strategy of using Oromo to put down the Somali has failed flat on its face. The Oromo knows clearly and unambigously that he can not go anywhere with out the Somali at the very least tolerating him if not supporting him. The Somali has fought longer, has fought more and paid gretaer price, for the rights the Oromo now is enjoying. The Somali also by virtue of this can throw a monkey wrench more than others. That is what the likes of our galbeedi did not realize and did not know. The likes of our galbeedi were clouded by 40 million Oromo and only 6-7 million Somali and of course mistaken clan calculus. In a few months the likes of our galbeedi will be shocked by what the Oromo will do with Somaliland. The Tigray will be missed who favoured Djibouti, but still maintained good brotherly but severly limited relations with Somaliland. The Oromo will have no limits. Relying on Houthi to punish Somaliland is a too deep of hopelessness no one worth of even forum SOL country fighter like our galbeedi should entertain.
  21. Depends on how they reconciled if they are allowed to reconcile at all. Until this Qatar UAE and America Turkey shenanigan is settled Somalia will not be allowed to reconcile with UAE. And if Somalia on its own calms the situation it will be in favour of UAE for the most part with some advantage for Somalia.
  22. Amazingly it has been like that in this neighbourhood for a thousand years. Some are settled farmers, some are Nomads, some are just worriors and invaders of their brothers...every one of them is famous for something and at some time, they go up and down like all human beings, have something to brag about and hide the things that are not so great in the past... Some of the most famous places have become ruins and only tell you they were great one time, places like Zeila, Axum.and some have come out of no where and become great their turn like Djibouti, Addis Ababa... Agree hard to be on anything.
  23. The current government may have been set up with Farmaajo for uncle Sam, Khyre for oil and gas Europeans. As galbeedi tells us the British now have total control of SFG and Mogadishu itself, but the Americans have control of where the gas and oil is. These are cat an mouse fighting (knifing each other, but smiling for the rest of us and swearing IC name for the rest of us. America has its boundary in this order: 1. No China, No Russia Not even India if not under America 2. No EU unless under American companies 3. No Britain unless serving the likes of Saudis, UAEs..etc Otherwise nothing moves forward.
  24. Very true. Its close to doing that. All it will take is build the two dams and supply electricity to both Somaliland and Djibouti (will still need more), geographically is hub for Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somaliland location location location. People wise only the kilil has every tribe or clan of almost every Somali walking on planet earth which means easy communication and influence on neighbours....everything is in place to accomplish that. Now there is also ambition the driver. Puntland is a product of history and situation in Somalia. This is far stronger than any leaders wants or ambition. Puntland is to Somalia what Scotland is to Britain. Reliable Somali, but pain on the neck as the Scttish are reliable Britons empire, but pain in the neck to English. History is a strong asset or obstruction depending on situation. Puntland will not abondon some kind of autonomy regardless what happens in Mogadishu. Partly true. Ethiopia hates to have war between any entity. War invites far away powers and you loose local control. Example if Somaliland and Djibouti could not handle their competition themselves, means foreign powers will come on this or that side. Ethiopia is poor and underdeveloped country, thus will be out of that conflict and the likes of USA, France, China...will be only players. As far as I know the logic works. If there is war will be very hard to reconcile and solve problems. human life lost calls for revenge in some way and revenge calls for another next revenge...all downhill. Its a two way street. Look how Djibouti and Ethiopia have become inseperable connected with everything. Common shared people, common shared roads, common shared electricity and water, common security and even defence. Development does that even at initial small stage. BTW you made perfect summary and in a nut shell kind of speak.