Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Alliances are always the best sign of some ones strength or weakness. When someone is weak will make alliance with the one he would not have even exchanged human greetings. In Somalia the sands are shifting even at a greater pace than the warlord days.
  2. Amazing how "small" incidents can trigger momentous other incidents. Serbia: On Thursday President of Serbia announced that he has asked China to help save the people of Serbia. His voice breaking, announced that Europe America have been informed that their solidarity is not even worth the paper. Saturday China send an army of Medics a group of aircraft with TONs of everything from gloves to medicine to food. The Serb president greets every single one of Chinese at landing of stairs and at the end lifts the Chinese flag, hugs it and kisses it and the whole area including guards, workers etc breaks in applause and some noises of total pleasure. You could not make this up no matter how experienced fiction writer you may be. Italy: Friday Italian prime minister finally gives in and asks President Putin to save Italy. Sunday the Russians are there with all Vehicles and jackets emblozened sticker "From Russia with love" two hearts of both flags of both countries. Russia sent its Military not Civilian red cross or crescent. Could any movie producer have created such beautiful sites, but more consequential?
  3. Oodweyne, Not all that denounce interference of Ethiopia are nationalists. Its just that they want Ethiopia to interfere for ONLY for them. They never realize that once you open the door, the competition is only going lower and the price of the local collaborators getting cheaper. On top of that there is this complete falsehood becoming truth. Example USC was the the biggest and deepest collaboration with Ethiopia, yet by most Somalis including yourself, USC collaboration is not considered in any analysis or news. Aidiid was asked, expenses covered, brught from India to lead USC by Ethiopia. "Our mission is accomplished, when all that the American people believe as truth is false" CIA director "At the CIA we lie, steal..." Another CIA director.. Do not be surprised when you thought a Somali is nationalist and find him in total servitude to foreigners. Illey was accused by Somalis as being Xabeshi sell out. Illey was accused by Xabeshi as separatist (Somali Nationalist) Which one is true? Yey was accused by Somalilanders as Xabeshi sell out. Yey was accused (even jailed) of being Somali nationalist. Which one is true? Somalilanders are accused of being Xabeshi/Mengistu sell out. Somalilanders are most distrusted by Xabeshi (Mengistu or Meles and even Abiy) as being too Somali Ethnicists. Which one is true?
  4. 1. UN Secretary general called for Global ceasefire. Every conflict from America and Others or Gal Mudug or Colombia or Cashmere or others 2. United States is offering to reduce its oil production and negotiate with Saudi and Russia to stabilize, but the Russians are in no mood for fast response and the Saudi boy is now in a pickle. Russia is in no hurry and Saudi will go bankrupt and US companies have started going bankrupt. 3. NATO requested for negotiation with Russia, but again Russia is in no hurry. Russia is saying, first NATO remove everything it has close to Russian borders then we talk. Reason: US is talking alone to Russia and some European countries have started talking to Russia alone outside of NATO. Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia have publicly announced that "Nothing we participate in NATO should be remotely against Russia" 4. Italy after Germany was largest American base, from soldiers to strategic deployment. Now things are fast changing Russian planes, Chinese ships, Russian Soldiers and Medics and Chinese Medics and manufacturers are everywhere in Italy. 5. UAE and 2 other countries have offered Iran open system for Iran to send its obersvers to ensure that nothing is going on in their lands against Iran. 6. NATO countries are getting out of Iraq and Syria East as fast as they can. 7. Pakistan has completely displaced India from the China-Russia side and India is caught in transition. All its weapons is Russian, but all its eggs are now in America. Wrong time, wrong choice. Countries are like Individuals. Every wannabe country is betting the whole thing blows up, so they can be countries in new order and every wannabe regional power is positioning in the free for all meyhem to come out with real estate. Ethiopia is talking (underground) of positioning itself to come out with sea ports when the dust settles. Abiy is sending such signals to consolidate his Amxara followers. Eritrea and Djibouti are out of this rumour, so it maybe Somalia and parts of Kenya. So much so fast it looks, but has been visible. Printing money is now accepted practice all of a sudden and every bank is doing it. Paper money will be as its name. US is spending 2 Trillion dollars in one week in addition to the 4.8 Trillion budget for the year.
  5. How are Somalis coping or conducting themselves, especially from the big centers of diaspora like UK, Canada, USA, Turkey, Australia..etc. How are Somalis doing in the different regions and countries of the HoA? There is not much Somalis can do or affect the big gamers like China, USA, Russia, Britain...etc There is not much Somalis can do about countries in HoA, for the simple reason that most Somalis were not close to the one Somali head of state in the HoA, Ghelleh. Farmaajo, Bixi, Cagjar..etc are not worthy of considering for this case and situation. To citizens of SOL republic: I am not putting down your local heroes and greatest leaders. My reasons are not political, but as follows: Bixi may be doing best things as he can, but does not have the infrastructure to be able to help Kililka or others. Farmaajo is out of consideration for this purpose since he does not control security and defense which is critical when you have disease that can bring chaos Cagjar has been doing all the wrong things, being focused in the promise Amxara gave him to be considered for PM of Ethiopia. Example there was food storage program started by Illey to build storages first dividing Kililka to 3-4 regions for thiis purpose and build the infrastructure. Nothing has continued since Cagjar came. Everything is fozen where Illey was removed. The same with water storage and micro dams. There fore he is out in Kililka let alone to help other Somalis. ...etc. No intension to make things political, but only Tendency, current status and capacity were considered. The Only Somali who has influence internationally, influence in the region HoA, connection to all Somalis...is Ghelleh. He has the capacity to ask Saudi Arabia to help pay for some of the necessary test and medicines for all Somalis. Bixi maybe able to do it with UAE but will be for Somaliland alone if he succeeds. Ghelleh can provide people trained in this situation. He can take Somalis from every region including NFD and get them trained by Chinese in Djibouti, for little to nothing cost. I hope Somali doctors and health professionals, thousands of them everywhere in the world, are getting together and thinking about this. Its good to see a Somali doctor helping people in Afghanistan or Asia for UN or WHO or other agencies, but would be great if he can at least pass the information to any Somali region. How are you coping, where ever you are? Please share what you observe, what you experience..etc.
  6. With one or two posts, Ilhan has come to life and pretty soon will be used poster democrat by Republicans. Even some right wing extremists could not hide their surprise at this nomad woman. Ilhan posted that at this time and situation Americans should be less political. Ilhan also picked one of the Trump decisions and showed her agreement and asked Americans to stand together on policies of that nature. I say: Bravo for two reasons: Keeping her relevance and also doing the right thing.
  7. Considering 80 million people, Social culture interactive, family based and intermingling, tourist country, many Turkic peoples all the region..etc this is not much. If you do not test, you would not know. That is what is happening in America..etc as well. The Turkish are now making test equipment and are already sharing with some countries. I hope Farmaajo is making effort to stay active in the Turkish radar. You cannot fudge numbers these days. The only way to play with numbers is not test. Once you test, in the age of internet its public info. Even Armies cannot hide it.
  8. It was not a mistake. Was the right thing to do. The fact that Farmaajo chose not to respect his predecessor's signature, an agreement that was best interests of all Somalis everywhere; Djibouti, Kililka and Puntland were all happy and hopeful, does not make it wrong. Never regret something that failed to materialize, because of changes not in your control. I am certain Ghelleh will insist that Farmaajo respect the agreement, that was beneficial to all Somalis. As for you, deal with the problem as is now, but do not go back and give up on something that is always the right thing to do. I am sure if Somaliland had supported ICU, would have squeezed TFG, but you did not do it, since it was not right and the long term negative effect on Somalis other than Somaliland and Djibouti, would have been catastrophic.
  9. Here is where Moodabe proved to be smartest. After the Malaysian airline disaster in Ukraine, there is a new system. If any party declares an area a war zone, then evrybody looses. What Moddabe did was positioned some anti-aircrft weapons, took pictures and told Farmaajo and Co. he will declare the area a war zone. Everybody even Kenya itself came begging him not to do that. The face book posts from Farmaajo had to be deleted. Countries like Qatar are using Oman, Somalia...more than ever. Nobody wants any problems here. Farmaajo and Co. knows their limits and capabilities, regardless face book postings. Their table top radio control can be shut down in a Moodabe minute. Why is Ghelleh so quiet. He should insist that Farmaajo and Bixi can compete on anything else, but never on economic development beneficial to people. Farmaajo should not interfere in economic and developmental issues with Somaliland or any region for that matter. Every SFG understood this and it was formalized as agreement during M. Shiek time. Oodweyne, Taiwan has America. Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China (mainland), Taiwan has Japan, South Korea, British to encourage them to just limit China's speed. Ethiopian, Saudi, UAE (since difficult for you to get Qatar), Kenya, Egypt..airlines are your best hope to change the situation. But now everything is on hold for Corona virus. Use this time to prepare for the after Corona virus time re-start if there is one and we don't have WW3.
  10. Me thinks they have overtaken already. America's wealth is now measured by Finance industry rather than brick and mortar. Finance industry is notorious in disappearing fast. It took less than a decade to move from London to New York between the Wars. There is a lot of Middlands in America already. Now the moneyed do not need briefcase and ship that takes months to get next power. Smartphone can manage all the wealth.
  11. This is the time to do all things nefarious around the world. Corona virus hysteria. If Farmaajo target is Gal Mudug, Beletweyne, Jowhar...etc consolidation maybe If its Puntland intimidation, the result will work the opposite If its the little noise of ONLF intimidation, it might work. Abiy needs to show something in Ethiopia. Otherwise he will be powerless shortly. If he cannot invade and make regime change in the North, he might as well go to Somalia and make it international as well.
  12. Why are both sides pushing this and making it the Alamo (do or die) as Americans say? Farmaajo side: He knows the control system he has is only a copy. Can be shut down any minute and control is done from Kenya. The equipment is still there and from time to time it functions. Do not expect the International avaiation to work without fall back. What do you think would happen if Al Shabab or war lord blew up the place or took control of it. Don't try to make it look like a face book power control. This is real life. Its the same for every group. Let alone Somaliland, a war lord can get the control in Farmaajo residence shut down and full time operate from Kenya. On the other hand in these times of Coronavirus people should sit down and work something. It does not matter how much area one controls even a village can bring the tent down.
  13. Oodweyne, Lets simplify the interests and how every side goes about achieving their interests regarding GERD: I might have a bias towards one or another group as I always have bias for those who have self respect like Ghelleh. My preference is issue based. Its also cultural of generally siding with the underdog. One fact is Abiy is not going to die for GERD, let alone for its schedule of filling. Sudan's interest is with the Dam, economic, strategic.etc But if the owner Ethiopia stance is shaky Sudan can afford to side with Egypt without changing its pronouncements. As for Kenya, the issue of Nile is Uganda not Ethiopia. If Egyptians who have more influence in South Sudan side with Kenya, then Kenya will side with them. Abiy and the Kikuyu have little competition going with America. The Kenyan's have UK in their camp come rain or shine. The worst UK can do against them is stay quiet or be neutral on some cases. America had a drone base in Ethiopia, which was moved out during Hailemariam, but the Tigray did not want it used on Yemen. The same reason Ghelleh had in resisting that base. This base is now in Kenya, expanded, modernized..shiny. Abiy and Kikuyu competition is actually for America not for Somalia. Abiy hands are also tied as you know with the tribes in Jubaland. This is not like SWS where he can do as he wanted or asked by his Framaajo and others. A lot of calculation goes to Jubaland. Kenya is more restrained country than Somalia or Ethiopia. It has better history of governance than either of them. Ethiopia has size and since 20th century Colonialists have got their preferred group in power. There is no conspiracy or stretching here. These are all factual interests and behaviors of the groups/regimes.
  14. A Cardinal (Vatican MP) has joined Ahmedinajad calling for UN to investigate COVID-19. It is now almost unanimous that COVID-19 did not come naturally from bat or other animal.
  15. why is this such a big deal? Two great threads in SOL republic from both sides. Some countries make exceptions, since the risk is part of life. Kurdistan in Iraq could not close their border with Iran since their food comes from there. Americans and Canadians had to make risky arrangement since can't survive a day without each other. Azebaijan and Armenia closed all borders with exception of Russia since they have diaspora in the millions with Russia. On the other hand prevention is better than cure/help Somalia would get, therefore not taking the risk is affordable. Over all its not the end of the Somali world on this issue.
  16. So far the location has worked in the negative. Hopefully in future the location will work for the Somali. The whole world ganged up on Somali. France, Britain were most powerful then and they brought Italy with them, because they don't trust each other. They kicked out Turkish and divided the whole thing among themselves.
  17. Ethiopia falls always when there is change of world powers or even trouble in one. King fell along shah of Iran since America was too busy about Vietnam and water gate impeachment Mengistu fell since Soviet told him no money no help as they withdrew from Afghanistan One Prince fell since Ottomans and Germans on his side were down and the British/Italians/French overthrew him Abiy came since America did not want Djibouti and Tigray..too much China, Turkey and Russia. OLF always misses opportunity. Unfortunately this disease has been catching ONLF. Instead of negotiating with Illey and have smooth transfer ONLF wanted the whole thing and now they have almost nothing. OLF is always like that.
  18. World Is In Crisis To Which Russia Had Been Preparing World Is In Crisis To Which Russia Had Been Preparing Vladimir Putin In early, 2020 the world entered a new global crisis. The new round of economic turbulence coincided with the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19), which started in China and rapidly expanded across the globe. So, mainstream media outlets rushed to explain the crisis developments with the pandemic impact. However, in fact, the global economic crisis has been forecasted by experts for a long time and has reasonable grounds: from the disbalance of the global economy and contradictions among key oil producers to the growing tensions between influential players in the key regions around the world. Saudi Arabia’s ongoing offensive on the oil market is a logical result of these developments. The coronavirus crisis worked as a trigger revealing the truth behind the lies and propaganda of the mainstream media and the global establishment. The reality broke into pieces the myth about the so-called ‘Euro-Atlantic solidarity’, demonstrated the almost zero-level effectiveness of the European Union bureaucracy and once again showcased that countries selling their sovereignty for some theoretical financial and diplomatic support of the Big Brother should not expect something good during crises. The world sole superpower, the United States, appeared to be prepared for the economic turbulence, mostly thanks to actions of the Trump administration. At the same time, the U.S. faced significant problems with containing the COVID-19 pandemic and its readiness for such threats are much lower than those of China and even Russia. The United Kingdom revealed itself as another country surprisingly unprepared for the global meltdown. The situation in Italy, Spain and other southern and eastern European states needs no comments. They experience a lack of food and drugs supplies, while their governments failed to prepare and adopt the needed anti-epidemic measures before it became too late. Germany is probably among a few European states that has been prepared for the crisis at least on the level of Russia. The irony of the situation is that Russia’s stability (in comparison with other states) has become a result of the actions of the so-called collective West. Just 10 years ago, it was importing grain, a large part of food products. It lacked some key technologies in the production of medical supplies. For Russian companies, it was just cheaper and easier to act this way than develop own capabilities in the field. However, the increasing sanction pressure forced the Russians to invest into own national industry and economy thus preparing the state to the upcoming crisis. If one takes a look at the current situation in Russia in the medical sphere and with food supplies, he would find that the country is passing through crisis without any notable problems. Even the short panic amid the collapse of the European healthcare and the creation of the COVID-19 crisis zone in Italy and a Western-run fake news campaign in Russian social media did not lead to even a short and slight crisis in big cities. As of March 20, Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF) had assets worth US$151.35 billion, or about 9 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product. The NWF allows Russia to have a security zone of 5-6 years even with oil prices at the level of ~$20 a barrel. It’s hard to imagine that Saudi Arabia, which caused the oil prices crisis by own actions, could pass the same period without a large-scale crisis with such prices. Furthermore, the NWF is operated by the Russian government, not by private persons with own interests. Even taking into account some level of management issues and corruption, the NWF would give the Kremlin to protect key economic spheres and keep the social stability in the country. The crisis also fueled the ongoing structural economic changes around the world. Economic activities are becoming more and more digitalized. People are forced to work remotely. The importance of the modern IT and media technologies are growing even further. Corporations and governments already started exploiting these trends. Some experts even suggest that in many cases the coronavirus crisis is being fueled artificially in order to push the world in a right direction. Others argue that this is a logical succession of events. In any case, the ongoing crisis became an important turning point for the current international system revealing the truth behind the global myths, lies and whitewashing. The states that invested in their independence and national economies despite the foreign pressure reap the benefit of their efforts. At the same time, the states that sold their independence and became puppets of the global elites faced expected consequences.
  19. China is now helping 86 countries in the world One example in Africa-Zambia where China has had business last 20 years. Chinese doctors and experts are now managing the health sector since this emergency. The Stock market in America which Trump used to brag about every day has now fallen to the same level the day he took office. All the "gains" of his presidency wiped out. Countries that had some self respect are struggling, but much better than those that were parroting America. Coronavirus is being used as cover, otherwise the economy was going to tank anyway. Among European and Euroasian countries the most prepared are Russia and Germany. They have money, technologically educated and advanced societies, population that has certain morals and easier to keep in line. Germany gets its oil and gas with pipeline. USA is now least prepared and least equiped. Only printing money and money is sometimes not helpful, but is better to be with than without. It still takes 17 hours flight to get from Asia to America for gloves, masks..etc. The healthcare system in America is private and some companies see this as opportunity. One very good news for the world. A Malaria drug has been found to work the best for treatment. Its a drug no patent, no ownership so anyone can make it. At the end of this: Where will the bankers go Back to London, Singapore, Switzerland (they will not allow them), Luxembourg, Telaviv...Where will be the center of the financial industry/bankers? As the US Military leaves non critical bases, will they return back? Hwawei is making a lot of moves helping countries have communication systems will it have won the battle without noise? Oil may not recover for 2 years. Somalia's oil and thousands of similar places around the world will be there on the ground next decade/decades. Nobody will even think about it. That is the target for Saudi Arabia who has cheapest cost of production. American Canadian British oil cannot stay in business lower than 40 dollars a barrel Since every economic crisis has brought war in history, WILL THERE BE WAR? First World war British/French vs. German and austro-hungarian and Ottoman empires Second world war British/French vs Germany is how it started. America took advantage of both wars. First one just participated few months and became important country. Second one just participated couple of years and became super power economically. There is a meeting in Moscow today for SCO countries to sign agreement to trade with their own money. China, Russia, and Pakistan is good to go with it, India too scared of America, will go only half way. If the American dollar falls, America cannot afford to keep its military bases or bribe countries. There has always been war in change of super powers, rarely does change of guard happen peacefully. USSR was not replaced by anyone.
  20. I see this thread being opened for 3rd or 4th time. I do not think its because nobody cares, but something is seriously wrong in generating such news. 1. Every one in Kililka knows who generated this from the naming itself 2. No mention even of a single media or agency let alone a link, while in the post the whole world seems interested 3. The best interest for the Somali people is to negotiate from a position of strength for the share in the oil and also development benefits that come around this oil and gas. The other option of preventing this oil from extraction is now dead. Oil was found in this area long before Saudi Arabia. Yet the Saudis have used it and are about to make it useless. Oil in lets say Ethiopia and Somalia is still in the ground after 100 years and still fighting over it. I consider myself well informed of happenstances in Kililka and this has not come up from friends or other news. That road is not worth traveling anymore. Efforts should be put to strengthen the autonomy and bring a decent benefit to the Somalis (all) in Ethiopia. Negotiate from strength since the Abiy regime is very weak.
  21. Ya. You can see it from a mile, it was going to be Priceless. Suldaanka, Did you have to single out Puntland? (just kidding)
  22. This is one sign of the strength of people. They cannot let go of their millennium old culture, calendar, so they still celebrate with small modification. On the other hand in Iran the celebration was muted. Anadolu News Agency https://www.aa.com.tr/en/pg/photo-gallery/nowruz-celebrations-in-azerbaijan/0 BTW the fireworks looks exactly the same as the Xabeshi. Maybe its pre-judaic culture similar to Zoroastrian religion (oldest religion in the world still practiced in Iran) Oil is down War with Armenia But Great help and co-operation with Turkey, Iran and Russia comes handy in times like this.
  23. Another manufactured "story" Suldaanka, You have been had beyond redemption, since you are totally convinced that the manufactured stories like Yey was slapped arrested by Tigray etc. The downfall of Yey was Americans did not want him. They had his phone bugged and have known certain things that was not to their liking. His meeting with Al Bashir/Sudan, Abdalla/Yemen, Ghelleh/Djibouti and Meles/Ethiopia, and the fact that he did not want UN or AU, but these countries doing it on their own dime was not appreciated by US or EU. Everything else is fiction and propaganda, of which some in Mugadishu and Hargiesa were more than happy to peddle. America wanted to reconcile ICU and some warlords. This is fact documented. It is simple logic that even in the remote chance some Tigray did not like Yey would have been shot by Meles. But what ever makes you feel good. Bashing anything Puntland seems to be. BTW mine is not Puntlander. I won't tell you the region.
  24. The words they are using is scary and undiplomatic. America: Chinese Virus even though they had agreed with the COVID-19 name China: Its American army that brought Corona Virus to Wuhan America: We asked China to use CDC but China refused China: If you did not have other motives, why you wanted to come alone and be in charge. Why not come with WHO and help other countries as well to prepare. Its becoming downright rude: Serbian President almost in tears: "European solidarity is empty. It does not exist. The only country that can help Serbia is China. I have asked china to send doctors, experts and material. I have had enough of the lecturing. I have point blank asked America and EU and the answer is negative."
  25. To each according to their capacity. America could and wanted to copy Korean method, but America has zero capacity to do that. Koreans are able to test 100,000 person a day and now even more. America could only test less than 100 a week. More than 200 machines/kits distributed in February in America did not work. Russia supplied 7 countries and itself with test systems and initial capacity and protective gears. It sent 2.5 million protective gear to China in the beginning. Korean method maybe most successful, but only 3-4 countries in the world can use it. America, France, Brazil, India...etc are not among them.