Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Actually if you are Somali of the nationalist type everything happening in Ethiopia is aginst your interest. Turkey China are being frozen UAE is in upto its knees now and very fast Saudi and UAE want to use Eritrea as base of opeartions in Yemen need it fast UAE wants Ethiopia to use Asab fast to bring down Djibouti (against kililka but also slows Somalialnd) etc..
  2. His whole country is in the army. 17-60 years is availabble on call. The whole population after grade 11 goes in one camp called Sawa and takes 1 year military training. He has 300,000 standing army paid very little is called national service All that cannot be justified without Ethiopian threat.
  3. very weird things happening 1. UAE depositing billion and investing 3 billion maybe buy big corporations 2. China, Turkey, Djibouti freezing 3. Sudan cooling and Egypt warming 4. Eritrea being prepared for being used re- launching of Yemen war 5. UAE delegation vising Badme the conflict town between Ethiopia Eritrea 6. Ethiopia to use Asab by way of UAE who practically own the place has been a year since Eritreans left the whole place to UAE. Things happening very very fast USA co-ordinating everything I hope Ghelleh will keep low key and not get into any trouble with that nomadic independence and bravery. Time to be afraid and stay below radar. Don't lose what you have trying to show the UAE your Somali character. You will lose more.
  4. But nobody will give the money and weapons to locals to clear their area themselves. TFG always afraid that it will be used in clan wars. The people should get together and do what kililka did: Give us the money, give us the weapons, give us the training. We will clear our kilil from Al Shabab, Itihad and even ONLF. We do not need Ethiopian army from other cultures, languages or soldiers period. But you need the confidence, you have to agree and understand the benefits. Other than that its AMISOM and Drones.
  5. Why is Somaliland so slow with this? Get UAE to arm twist the Saudis. upgrade also the quality control. Djibouti is getting far ahead now with the port but Berbera would be more convenient for Kililka.
  6. Bad news for all. Trump will either double triple drones or double Uganda Kenya AMISOM. Just when Pentagon anounced will cut US forces in half in Somalia, this happens.
  7. It was the British who wanted all Somalis (except Djibouti) to be in one country, one territory, yet was Somalis that refused. After that attempt of course the British have to secure their interest in Kenya. As for Ethiopia, it owes the British, especially kings Minelik and Haileslassie so is natural for Ethiopia to share in defence of Kenya. Somalia should have expected this from 1964.
  8. Is it improving as well from your part of Canada? From what I hear galbeedi Alberta is worst for bad image. In Toronto the bad image is dying down.
  9. Aroori, That may be true, but even clans fight behind someone's economic interest or simply grazing lands and wells which is economic. There is always something behind it except the most idotic ones that are done for revenge killings battles.
  10. That is why the British made Ethiopia and Kenya sign defence agreement. It was activated during ICU and then people became aware of its details and implications. Ethiopian army was moving through Kenya without even stopping for border check. Ethiopian soldiers in small units were moving as if their country in hills valleys and towns.
  11. The conscription gives him 300,000 soldiers, but also 200,000 Eritreans refugee in enemy country Ethiopia of which half are conscripts. when you consider that Ethiopia has 160,000 total and yet Ethiopia is on top 30 most powerful countries and Eritrea is not even on the map. He can take advantage of Yemen to get out of the cold, good for a dictator, but is that history you want to leave your country or people. Somalia could have recieved a billion dollars, but I think is better off refusing this Yemen inhumanity. Even Ghelleh who has same love of money as Isayas refused his country to be used for Yemen war.
  12. galbeedi, I knew you would come to this topic. Eritrea Ethiopia militarily. You of all people should know that, talk about battles when you lost the main objective is pointless. Talking about Imam Ahmed Gurey bravery, battle wins, use of cannons etc becomes all useless when you realize that led to the death of the Adal which could have become great empire, but the way the war was conducted was wrong. Now neither the Somali, Hareri or Afar claims Adal sultanate/kingdom/empire... Eritrea would never have called President Clinton at 2AM, would never have signed agreement to not bring its army 25 km to border of Ethiopia over the 1000km border. Peace keepers to stay only on Eritrean side....would you same agreement Israel and Egypt. Egyptians have to ask permission from Israel to take military force to Sinai. The two main drivers of all these changes are: 1. America wants China to stop or really slow down (Djibouti Ethiopia) 2. Saudi wants to run Yemen war from the African side than from their country Since Djibouti and all Somalis refused this, only Eritrea is available, but Saudis or Americans cannot work from Eritrea with current situation with Ethiopia. Al Amoudi will not be released any time soon. World Bank and IMF are also taking advantage and forcing Ethiopia to at least partly privatize its state enterprises and deny the Chinese their model being duplicated in Africa and succeed.
  13. From what I hear, image is changing for the better. There is gang deaths, but the positive image is also big. People can separate you from back home in few short years if you are positively participating and mixing with influential people.
  14. So now things are heading to proxy wars and not direct with each others armies. That is big improvement and I think better than direct comfrontation. It was dangerous the way it was going. Hate to see people fight, but proxy is easier to stop than direct.
  15. These Opride/Oromopride you like to quote is really petty and bragging on something that did not happen. That is the difference between Amhara and Oromo. The Amhara hated Samora because he is a brave man and always Tigray. The Oromo hated him for the same, but cannot acknowledge. They are afraid he will come from retirement. lol. Samora was always leader from his teens. Was commander first units formed, was commander of platoon, comapny, brigade, battalion, division, front...at every level was first leader of highest unit always first. Wounded twice. First one fighting against EDU (king Haileslassie feudal remnants) in his teens. He was member of central committee and executive, but after 1993 he had to quit political positions and party affiliation to build a national professional army. (fired?) Very weak culture, of Oromopride, for somebody that is retiring after 40 years of chasing wars and all victorious, bringing the country to challenge Egypt solid military friendship with Turkey, Sudan not so much liked by America. It cannot be said enough his contribution for Moslem children and Moslems in general to aspire to reach the apex of power and influence. Ethiopia, when Samora went to fight was very different than it is today. He is universally respected for the man he is, in Tigray Afar and even Amhara regions, of course not liked for where he comes from and in plitics. Now its normal in Ethiopia to see Moslem at any position of power.
  16. I would say is more the Americans winning than Tigray underestimating him. Ethiopia is already reduced Chinese role, tremendeously increased American, Privatizing corporations which Meles would have said over my dead body, forced to bring Eritrea from cold to be used on Yemen and Sudan openly...too many things to count. Tigray like Ghelleh have to just be quiet now and keep themselves from being railroaded. Abiy or US cannot do much without Tigray either enticed or coerced. There is more doubt in his camp than Tigray since the privatization is against his supporters wishes. Afraid also that Tigray are doing this to buy the corporations. The advice from kililka is Somalis to buy everything that can be bought in telecomunications and try to get in in electricity.
  17. That is funny, but figuratively Pirates either of British Empire or Puntland Boqor don't throw stones. If there is nothing to be pirated in your enclave they are not coming there.
  18. It shows you how third world politics does not hide ugly face of politics. Ethiopian opposition are now searching to find Tigray in Genereal Adem Mohamed. Of course he has Tigray heritage and also fought with them and served and rose through ranks with them, but he is from Amhara Region. General Samora Mohamed Yonus and Genral Seare Mekonen his replacement's home towns are maybe 50km apart in the north west of Tigray where TPLF started.
  19. I see your point, but the difference between Kenya and Somalia/Ethiopia is night and day in this case of oil. Kenya also does not have autonomous regions that are responsible for health, education even security and some defence. Oil means trouble. The added security for locals is very expensive.
  20. I thought so. Its against human nature to want 75% to central government and very little to the owners of that locality, unless you are the central government or you have big hand in central government, or you are sure as day light no oil gold unranium under the feet of your house, sub-sub clan. You will not find an American, Canadian, Somali..who will tell you give to the central government. Not right. cadnaan1, Any reason why you wanted to give 75% to SFG and very little to poor locals from share of oil?
  21. The war in Yemen is the biggest factor driving diplomacy and alliances in HOA. The Saudis failed in Recruiting Djibouti, Somaliland and Ethiopia so have to punish them. These countries and territories are poor, they gain nothing by refusing to participate in Yemen other than principles and clear conscience. America failed in persuading Djibouti and Ethiopia to stay distance frm China and thus America is not going to compete economically but by other means. Trump wants to escalate Yemen and shorten it. Taking too long and negative results too big, afraid Iran might escalate if takes long and Turkey might call ceasefire or negotiations for human side. The war will be conducted from Eritrea, but a lot of diplomatic work needs done to set the stage. That is being done. Not complete regime change in Ethiopia but enough to do the following: 1. Privatise big monster enterprises like 60 million customer telephone, 100 aircraft and growing airlines, 10GW and growing Electricity....China down, weaken Ethio govt. 2. Will not get Al Amoudi unless you make peace with Eritrea then we can lift sanctions and bring Eritrea from the cold 3. Slow your co-operation with Turkey which is wild card that can take advantage and establish herself without bullet or dollar
  22. Unique for An African. TPLF is unique in that all its leaders through the years are all alive except Meles. Even its first chairman before Sebhat is in Europe with a PhD. The worst that can happen is get jailed for few years and then are free. All Eritrean ones most killed, some die in desert container prison, others are still there. The difference between Italian colonial culture and poor but free people.
  23. It was neither for the dusty village or for Assab. It was strategic and both achieved what they wanted. Ethiopians wanted to stop young, super enthusiastic, new country testastrone driven, ambitious for being singapore at expense of everyone, Eritrea and go on with their fight on poverty and backwardness. Eritrean strong man wanted total control of his country citizens and how better to achieve it than monster Ethiopia wants to invade us. By that time remember he has fought with Yemen, Sudan and Djibouti big ones or skirmishes but isolated himself none the less. They both achieved.
  24. We are all human. Trump is still angry why the Canadians burned the White House in 1812. He reminded Trudea PM Canada, that he/Trump is not being rude to Canada. That is an incident Americans know, even those who have no knowledge or very little of their history. In Ethiopia North the Ahmed Gurey Adal conquest of Xabesha is still most remembered. The destruction of few churches is remembered, but no body thinks of the war or purpose of it, who succeeded and who failed. Americans and Canadians also do not remember much who won or what happened, but the burning down of the Whitehouse.